Aqueduct today

[gm10]

Talk about track bias. Speed at the rail winning race after race after race.

[Charlie D]

Talk about track bias. Speed at the rail winning race after race after race.

Track bias, where?? i can not see one

[gm10]

At Aqueduct.

http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=AQU&CTY=USA&DATE=20100407&RN=99

[Charlie D]

Your misinterpreting the information gm10

[46zilzal]

Talk about track bias. Speed at the rail winning race after race after race.
Being the shortest distance around an already fast oval, how is that surprising...

[gm10]

Your misinterpreting the information gm10

Sure.

Race 1: 'dueled inside'
Race 2: 'set the pace on the rail'
Race 3: 'dueled outside for a half'
Race 5: 'dueled along the rail'
Race 6: 'set a pressured pace on the rail'
Race 7: 'set the pace along the rail'
Race 8: 'pressed three wide'

That's 5/7. Should have gone to Specsavers.

[gm10]

Being the shortest distance around an already fast oval, how is that surprising...

Yeah right, every dirt race in America is won by the speed on the rail 5 times out of 7. There was a ridiculously obvious rail bias. I read somewhere it is very warm in NY right now, maybe that has something to do with it.

[Charlie D]

Trust me gm10, you're misinterpreting the information.

[Robert Goren]

I am not sure about the rail, but it was surely a front runners day. JMO

[gm10]

Trust me gm10, you're misinterpreting the information.

I saw every race and things looked pretty clear to me - please tell me how I should have interpreted the results.

[46zilzal]

Most of the main track winners had positive early late balance numbers.

[Charlie D]

The Race is Pace and not one of those horses were comprimised by it, so if a horse is not comprimised or taken out of his/her comfort zone he/she will repeat what he/she has done before.


JJ Prohpet

Line 2
1-1 1-1 2-1 2-1
Line 8 Led everywhere bar 1st fraction

Line 9 wired

against todays field high probability to wire on the cutback

Saints Alive wired on his last 3 - much the best


Hidden Prince E horse who just failed last time out and in todays field there was a high probablity of him lasting


and so on and so on.

[the little guy]

I tend to agree with Charlie D, in that logical horses got favorable set ups, which made it look more like a speed favoring track than it MAY have been. I wouldn't completely discount the possibility but I also wouldn't make a strong conclusion.

[Charlie D]

logical horses got favorable set ups


You should be on tv TLG :)

[Charlie D]

Have you heard that early speed does well on the IDT? Of course you have, ad nauseam, and while there's some statistical truth to it, I don't think that's a particularly useful impression or basis for winter handicapping, since it's an overrrated and overbet approach. It appears that way for reasons that have nothing to do with the track itself: a generally lower level of competition that includes a higher percentage of the most hopeless of the hopeless, who are outrun early and late; uncompetitive races with two dominant entrants who run 1-2 around the track; and a switch from one-turn 7f and 8f races on the main track that are more demanding on front-runners to more speed-favoring 8f, 8.32f, and 8.5f routes around two turns.





Some good observations in above from Steve Crist and they don't just apply to Inner.

[cj]

You should be on tv TLG :)

Perhaps if he was named Jessica and had long hair he would be on the networks. It obviously has nothing to do with handicapping knowledge.

[Charlie D]

Maybe TLG should try a wig, bra and padding CJ :)

[maiom01]

Perhaps if he was named Jessica and had long hair he would be on the networks. It obviously has nothing to do with handicapping knowledge.

Are you saying Jessica doesn't know what she's talking about..

[Tom]

Maybe TLG should try a wig, bra and padding CJ :)

I take it you have never been to Toga! :eek:

[Charlie D]

Not been to a Toga party Tom.

Is that a cross dressers convention??

[the little guy]

I take it you have never been to Toga! :eek:


Ya know, Tom, I thought that was our secret.

[Charlie D]

This thread has definitely gone off topic.


Fun though.

[Charlie D]

To help get thread back on track heres an edition of Trips and Traps with a couple of guys doing a fine job imho.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Prd3et2FmR0&feature=PlayList&p=B9CC22B19E6EB24C&playnext_from=PL&index=0

[Charlie D]

They should do a Triips and Traps Kentucjy Derby special

[the little guy]

They should do a Triips and Traps Kentucjy Derby special


We don't own the races. Otherwise we would love to.

[Charlie D]

Do it without races replays TLG if you can't get them. I'll tune in to show and i'm sure others will too.

[Charlie D]

The replays help in demonstrating what your talking about, but it's your analysis thats the important part.

[FantasticDan]

TLG and his NYRA compadres do analyze major races like the KD and the BC Classic in their Thoroughbred Weekly show, even if there isn't Trips and Traps style video analysis.

I still recall TLG signing off from last year's BC show with the emphatic proclamation that Zenyatta "didn't have a prayer" in the Classic.. :ThmbUp: ;)

[maiom01]

TLG and his NYRA compadres do analyze major races like the KD and the BC Classic in their Thoroughbred Weekly show, even if there isn't Trips and Traps style video analysis.

I still recall TLG signing off from last year's BC show with the emphatic proclamation that Zenyatta "didn't have a prayer" in the Classic.. :ThmbUp: ;)

:lol::lol::lol:

[the little guy]

I still recall TLG signing off from last year's BC show with the emphatic proclamation that Zenyatta "didn't have a prayer" in the Classic.. :ThmbUp: ;)


As I recall, that was one of my better opinions on last year's BC.

[Charlie D]

Thoroughbred Weekly show


If possible, get this up on website TLG so i can tune in.

[the little guy]

If possible, get this up on website TLG so i can tune in.


It's a NYRA/MSG production that is on Cable.

I'm not on that often.

[Charlie D]

It's a NYRA/MSG production that is on Cable.

I'm not on that often.


Don't care :) if it's as decent as your other shows people should tune in, but they can't if it's not available.


Access to the product is key to getting people interested in game.

[the little guy]

Don't care, if it's as decent as your other shows i'll tune in, but can't if it's not available.


Access to the product is key to getting people interested in game.


I don't disagree with the latter part and the show is available to people with MSG Plus. That network has pretty good distribution.

Mostly it is a recap of the stakes run that week throughout the country with very little editorializing ( especially depending on time ). I don't think we can show races that aren't our own on our internet avenues. We certainly try to show as much as we can on our sites.

[Charlie D]

This is problem with racing. Most of the people that are in charge don't have a clue about promoting and marketing the sport.


They should be knocking on your door asking if you want to show replays imho.

[Charlie D]

On my tv is Live NHL from ESPN. In half hour is Live NBA. Otherday a Betfair Poker Tourney was on


For gawd sake, how does racing expect to compete and get anyone interested when they don't get it out there.

[Charlie D]

I know ATR do US racing, but UK/Ire racing takes precedence, so in summer your not watching Saratoga etc on tv. With this in mind i sent a query to my cable supplier asking if it would be interested in showing US racing.


Here is reply.


Thanks for your e-mail to Virgin Media requesting to get USA horse
racing programmes on our TV service.
We?ll be happy to provide you the services you?d like, but currently we
don?t have any plans in the near future to provide USA horse racing
programmes. Once such programmes are available, we?ll let you know
through the relevant media.




Has anyone asked Virginmedia if they want to take product and add it to thier programming.

I doubt it.

[Charlie D]

Arkansas Derby looks a fantastic race on paper


Whats point in trying to get people interested over here if they can't watch race.



People become interested in Arc's, Melbourne Cups, Dubai World Cups, Classics etc because they are shown on tv

rant over

wake up US racing for gawds sake.

[cj]

Are you saying Jessica doesn't know what she's talking about..

That is exactly what I'm saying.

[gm10]

Arkansas Derby looks a fantastic race on paper


Whats point in trying to get people interested over here if they can't watch race.



People become interested in Arc's, Melbourne Cups, Dubai World Cups, Classics etc because they are shown on tv

rant over

wake up US racing for gawds sake.

The races you mention are a couple of dozens of levels above the Arkansas Derby. That's why TV stations will broadcast them to a broad public. You've got to be realistic.

[eastie]

Maybe TLG should try a wig, bra and padding CJ :)


He is actually pretty stunning as a red head, and he dances like Zenyatta too.

[maiom01]

That is exactly what I'm saying.

For you all who would like to listen to TLG over Jessica has got to be whacked in the head.

[PaceAdvantage]

For you all who would like to listen to TLG over Jessica has got to be whacked in the head.Did you mean look at or did you actually mean listen?

Obviously, Jessica is much more pleasant to look at (no offense Andy, but I'm sure even you will agree with that), and her voice is no doubt orders of magnitude sexier than TLGs, but as far as actual informed handicapping advice? Having watched both, I'll stick with TLG.

[46zilzal]

I watch the pre-race show everyday, turn the sound all the way down, and get the scratch updates.

[Charlie D]

I've watched racing presented by BBC, Channel 4 racing, Attheraces, RacingUK. I've also seen a bit of TVG and HRTV and can honestly say that at no time did i feel i needed to turn the sound down or mute the NYRA guys like i have done numerous times with the other channels mentioned.

[Partsnut]

This is a very interesting thread.
I've been profiling Aqueducts Main track and for the most part
with the exception of 6.5 F dirt the track has an early bias for dirt races.
Here's an image showing the winners beaten lengths at the second call for 6 F dirt.

[Partsnut]

Here's 6.5 F
This distance can go either way.

[Partsnut]

Here's 7.0 F

[Partsnut]

And Finally 8F

[Charlie D]

Have you heard that early speed does well at Aqueduct? Of course you have, ad nauseam, and while there's some statistical truth to it, I don't think that's a particularly useful impression or basis for handicapping, since it's an overrrated and overbet approach.

[46zilzal]

Have you heard that early speed does well at Aqueduct? Of course you have, ad nauseam, and while there's some statistical truth to it, I don't think that's a particularly useful impression or basis for handicapping, since it's an overrrated and overbet approach.
malarkey ....

Good case in point was the 2nd today where a POSITIONAL horse, the three was a plug with no 2nd fraction support.......EARLY means to the 2nd call not out of the gate or on a sustained pace lead like this one had

[Charlie D]

Yep it's malarkey alright


I'm just glad you think so and you play where i play.

[Charlie D]

Bill (Patsnut)

The result gives you more imformation . Look at the two races so far, the PP's of the horses and take into consideration their race dynamics.

Do these two results make sense to you or not???

[46zilzal]

Yep it's malarkey alright


I'm just glad you think so and you play where i play.
And have been playing it successfully before you were born I might add.

keep clinging to the dogma group who NEVER challenge a thing that is not in one of their OUT OF DATE magazines and you too will close your mind to the realities of what is happening today.

[the little guy]

Did you mean look at or did you actually mean listen?

Obviously, Jessica is much more pleasant to look at (no offense Andy, but I'm sure even you will agree with that), and her voice is no doubt orders of magnitude sexier than TLGs, but as far as actual informed handicapping advice? Having watched both, I'll stick with TLG.


If you would rather look at me I would be very concerned....not that there's anything wrong with that.

[RXB]

If you would rather look at me I would be very concerned....not that there's anything wrong with that.

What're you doing here right now? Get to work, you slacker.

[Charlie D]

And have been playing it successfully before you were born I might add.

keep clinging to the dogma group who NEVER challenge a thing that is not in one of their OUT OF DATE magazines and you too will close your mind to the realities of what is happening today.





You keep misinterpreting the information bud, it's fine by me and i'm sure it's fine by people like Cees with dees.


He saw Windy Corner coming, did you??

[Charlie D]

What're you doing here right now? Get to work, you slacker.


Agree RXB

How the hell can he tell us which are the Trips and Traps when he's looking in here :)

[Partsnut]

46zilzal: And have been playing it successfully before you were born I might add.

keep clinging to the dogma group who NEVER challenge a thing that is not in one of their OUT OF DATE magazines and you too will close your mind to the realities of what is happening today.

Tim, Some have the wherewithall to keep an open mind so that they may learn from knowledgeable and intelligent people like yourself. Others will spout off from the hip with meaningless knowledge to undermine the solid principles they will never understand and are not willing to learn. It is best to ignore these people.

Here are the results from Aqueducts first two races.

Race-1

[46zilzal]

Yep it's malarkey alright


I'm just glad you think so and you play where i play.
I ran into many a resident with the same point of view. Right out of school with all the theory fresh in their heads with very little practical experience to back it up....They learned as will many of the folks who think they KNOW this game without years of water under the bridge.

[Charlie D]

Some have the wherewithall to keep an open mind


Indeed they do and some wear thier blinkers and state that this and that is malarkey.


:lol:

[Partsnut]

Race -2

[Partsnut]

Indeed they do and some wear thier blinkers and state that this and that is malarkey


There's no need to wear blinkers or state anything when one is deaf, dumb and blind. :lol:

[Charlie D]

It's not me who is, deaf, dumb and blind though as i showed at the start of this thread.

Logical results and if you analysed races, performances properly you'd SEE them.

[Charlie D]

The guys at NYRA could make a Trips and Traps show just from todays racing imho. In fact, they could probably make a Trips and Traps show out of each days racing as the race dynamics help some horses and hinder others all the time.

[Partsnut]

Today at AQU there were 6 Races on the dirt and in 5 out of 6 of these races the winner was within 3 lengths or less at the pace call. In the one race out of the 6 dirt races run the winner was within 3 1/2 lengths at the pace call.
There was a definite early bias and that's the facts, Jack.

Tom Brohamer wrote the book (Modern Pace Handicapping) on track profiling and he is still very well regarded by many. For those that would discredit his methods and good works and that have no credentials to back up their meaningless opinions and statements, I would think you would be best keeping your ridiculous statements to yourself. It does not do much for your credibility and says a lot for your ignorance. For those that wish to dispute my statement, Please let us know how credible you are and what you have accomplished lately.

Brohamer was the ultimate Sartin Methodology teacher.

[Charlie D]

I know where the winners were, i do watch races you know.


Please tell me which were illogical winners.

[Partsnut]

Please tell me which were illogical winners.

My perception of logic may very well differ from yours. Therein, lies the big difference between us. When the smoke has cleared, this will seperate the men from the boys. :lol:

[46zilzal]

Brohamer was the ultimate Sartin Methodology teacher.
Except when he veered off from energy and took on positional definitions of style where there are HUGE differences. I see early horses run back 6 to 8 lengths and late ones running on the pace all the time, and it really helps understand both form cycles and running style much better than position alone which, or course, is pace dependent.

For example, if a horse gets a lead and is tractable, the rider can restraint him a lot, still maintain the lead in crawling fractions then come home fresh as a Daisey in a race that did not represent a style but a pace that was handed to him on a platter.

Looking at position without the yardstick of pace will fool you often.

Now often early energy and early position jive, but not always.

[Charlie D]

1, Evaluate the Early part of the race.

Evaluate the chances of the horses involved in that part of the scenario then disqualify runners who don't measure up.

2, Evaluate the Pressers.

Most often, a weak Early pace picture strongly favours this type. They have first run at the leaders and must be given strong consideration.

3, Consider the Closers.

In most races these are the least probable winners. Avoid closers that are unable to reach a striking position by the stretch call. They are proven losers at every track in the country and only win with a complete collapse of the pace.


The format is simple. Unfortunately, most players have little organization in their approach and often proceed too quickly to betting decision. This procedure will give each type it's proper due. It will also ensure adequate understanding of the pace picture for the race you are about to bet.




Horse either wires or does not , if it does not or can not due to energy depletion , the horse just in behind are going to take the race. If these horse can not do it or the Pace collapses, the horses in behind those are going to take the race.


As Tom states, the format is simple.

[Charlie D]

Please tell me the horse you think finished ITM today that should not have.

[46zilzal]

Horse either wires or does not , if it does not or can not due to energy depletion , the horse just in behind are going to take the race. If these horse can not do it or the Pace collapses, the horses in behind those are going to take the race.




According to your clones, in the black and white mentality, all contests are either early or other than early,,,,,,,however there are several gradations between them.

But ignorance is bliss.

[Charlie D]

According to your clones, in the black and white mentality, all contests are either early or other than early,,,,,,,however there are several gradations between them.

But ignorance is bliss.




Err, the race is either won by a E type or it is not won by E type , so Early and Other than statements are actually correct.

[Charlie D]

Please tell me which horses that finished ITM today should not have in your opinion ??

We can then move the debate forward i think

[46zilzal]

Err, the race is either won by a E type or it is not won by E type , so Early and Other than statements are actually correct.
yup Black and White

[Charlie D]

I repeat. Please tell me which horses that finished ITM today should not have in your opinion ??

We can then move the debate forward i think

[the little guy]

How come nobody is talking about the likely dead rail at Aqueduct today? Hell, it looked like the old balcony Belmont.

[Charlie D]

the likely dead rail at Aqueduct today


Explain the variables that make you conclude the above TLG please.

[the little guy]

Explain the variables that make you conclude the above TLG please.


Watch the races.

[Charlie D]

Watch the races.


I have via Betfair Live video, but i want to know which variables make you conclude there might have been a dead rail today at Aqueduct.


It's not an unreasonable request TLG imo.

[Ernie Dahlman]

Today at AQU there were 6 Races on the dirt and in 5 out of 6 of these races the winner was within 3 lengths or less at the pace call.

If you watch the races maybe you will see there were 8 dirt races today.

[the little guy]

If you watch the races maybe you will see there were 8 dirt races today.


Maybe.....maybe not.

[RXB]

Never mind Aqu, how about Kee the last two days? It's like they reinstalled the old inside-speed-biased dirt track. 15 main track races-- 10 of the winners were leading 2f into the race.

[maiom01]

Maybe.....maybe not.

Did you do your chat session tonight?

Was Zenyattas 16th win any part of your discussion?

[PaceAdvantage]

Did you do your chat session tonight?

Was Zenyattas 16th win any part of your discussion?I thought you quit PaceAdvantage.com?

I guess not.

It's tough staying away...I understand...

[Charlie D]

I thought you quit PaceAdvantage.com?

I guess not.

It's tough staying away...I understand...


Me too, you've got a great forum here PA with some interesting debates going on.

[Tom]

According to your clones, in the black and white mentality, all contests are either early or other than early,,,,,,,however there are several gradations between them.

But ignorance is bliss.

So Mr Happy, tell us all what else there is?
Early, not early, or.............zilly?

:lol:
For example, if a horse gets a lead and is tractable, the rider can restraint him a lot, still maintain the lead in crawling fractions then come home fresh as a Daisey in a race that did not represent a style but a pace that was handed to him on a platter.

How is this possible when the jockey only steers the horse - your words, not mine? And the jockey cannot changed the horse's style, again, your words, not mine. Methinks you talk through your hat.

[46zilzal]

Alone on the lead is completely different than anything else.

Styles are many early. early/presser, presser, sustained/presser, sustained, late

[Tom]

Alone on the lead is completely different than anything else.

Styles are many early. early/presser, presser, sustained/presser, sustained, late

So is presser early or other than early?
:lol: