Apple Blossom Entries...Absolutely Zero Competition

[Zenyatta To Crush]

This is a laugher of a race for Zenyatta. She's barely carrying more weight than her rivals and should absolutely destroy these horses with Mike not even asking her to run. This race at first looked like one of the best races in the history of racing, but now looks like one of the biggest mismatches in the history of racing. It would be kinda funny I guess if Asmussen's War Echo somehow beat Zenyatta. Then they'd have to have a Zardana - War Echo match race to see who's best.


Oaklawn Park - April 9, 2010

Race 10 - 6:25 PM First Half Late Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta
STAKES Apple Blossom Invitational H. (Grade I)

Purse $500,000. For Fillies And Mares, Four Years Old And Upward. One And One Eighth Miles.
PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer
1 Be Fair (FL) 4/F L C H Borel 120 D W Lukas
2 Taptam (TX) 5/M L M C Berry 117 W B Calhoun
3 War Echo (KY) 4/F L S Bridgmohan 120 S M Asmussen
4 Zenyatta (KY) 6/M L* M E Smith 123 J A Shirreffs
5 Just Jenda (KY) 4/F L T J Thompson 120 C Jones


Owners: 1 - Westrock Stables, LLC (Scott T. & Joe T. Ford); 2 - Wayne Sanders & Larry Hirsch; 3 - Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (Ron & Joan Winchell); 4 - Jerome S. and Ann Holbrook Moss; 5 - J. Larry & Cindy Jones

Breeders: 1 - Milan Kosanovich; 2 - Wayne R. Sanders; 3 - Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC; 4 - Maverick Production, Limited; 5 - Lavin Bloodstock Services, Inc

[46zilzal]

Is being paid a personal appearance fee like Secretariat did in Chicago.

[broadreach]

Might start at 1/9

[Pick6]

Oaklawn pays min. 10 cents on a dollar for win mutuels, correct?

123 pounds is an insult.

[Zenyatta To Crush]

Might start at 1/9
I can't imagine that show wagering will be allowed, but I bet the place pool will be ridiculous anyways.

[Spalding No!]

What's hilarious is that on Wednesday at Oaklawn, they run the Bayakoa at 8.5f for older fillies and mares.

In the race is Pin Oak Stables' multiple stakes winner Euphony (9 for 15 lifetime), Cindy Jones' Grade 2 winner Payton D'oro, and Steve Asmussen's Grade 2 winner and Grade 1 placed Luna Vega.

Great attempt by the racing office to salvage one of the most anticipated races of the year thus far.

[joanied]

No doubt about now (not that I had any)...but unless Mike does something extremely dumb, Z crushes this so called field. But, it isn't anyone's fault via her connections, or Mr. Cella...obviously the trainers don't want to face her...kind of 'chicken $hit', but there ya have it. I kinda feel bad for Cella because he really tried to make this a great race.
Guess it's a good place to see if Zenyatta still enjoys feeling real dirt under her dancin' shoes :) ...and the crowd will be up on their feet once again, cheering wildly, as she gallops under the wire.
It's all OK by me...she'll face tougher competition as the year progresses...the bad thing is that once again, folks will be screaming she beats nothing :faint:

[Phantombridgejumpe]

I know this will be one of my plays.

Actually, I may make my sixth mythical play at Keenland later this week, but we shall see.

[tzipi]

123 lbs? Wow :eek:

[Grits]

It would be kinda funny I guess if Asmussen's War Echo somehow beat Zenyatta.

Yeah, it would be. Wouldn't it . . . somehow.

Love "the big mare". She's a joy to watch and I'm looking forward to seeing her in the flesh. Her streak is a rare achievement; her weight assignment in this race, a joke. All are in for second money, but somehow, something tells me regarding Steve A . . . . if he's ever had a runner fit for a lifetime best effort, it'll be War Echo on Friday. She pales, as do all others, in comparison to Zenyatta. Still, she's won by 3 1/2 going 1 1/8th; she can rate or she can go to the front.

[joanied]

Yeah, it would be. Wouldn't it . . . somehow.

Love "the big mare". She's a joy to watch and I'm looking forward to seeing her in the flesh. Her streak is a rare achievement; her weight assignment in this race, a joke. All are in for second money, but somehow, something tells me regarding Steve A . . . . if he's ever had a runner fit for a lifetime best effort, it'll be War Echo on Friday. She pales, as do all others, in comparison to Zenyatta. Still, she's won by 3 1/2 going 1 1/8th; she can rate or she can go to the front.

Me too...LOVE her...not just her race record, Grits...she is eye candy, she is a delight to watch, she has incredible charisma, she is absolutley gorgeous and she takes my breath away If not for the farming, I'd be there, forget the match with her & Rachel...I would have been elated just to see Zenyatta in the flesh:jump:

But, now I am a little nervous...War Echo makes me nervous...I don't think we'll see her rate on Friday...more like getting out to a long lead and trying to keep it while the big mare runs her down.
Some will trash me for this...but I do not want to see Zenyatta get beat...ever:)

[MickJ26]

I'm just glad she's still a racehorse and not a broodmare.

[joanied]

I'm just glad she's still a racehorse and not a broodmare.

Yep...but I sure hope all this don't backfire for them when they do retire her to being a broodmare...hope she gets in foal first cover and goes to term. She's gonna make a hell of a mama...hope she teaches all her babies how to dance:jump:

[BluegrassProf]

Please keep all of this in mind when/if Zenyatta wins this race, and the "ZENYATTA THE QUEEN 16 FOR 16 BESTEST EVAR SHE FACED EVERYONE AND THE DEVIL HIMSELF!" threads start [expectedly] popping up.

Not an jab; just a recommendation. :ThmbUp:

[Hanover1]

She catches short fields all year and it will be a walk-over.......

[ghostyapper]

Please keep all of this in mind when/if Zenyatta wins this race, and the "ZENYATTA THE QUEEN 16 FOR 16 BESTEST EVAR SHE FACED EVERYONE AND THE DEVIL HIMSELF!" threads start [expectedly] popping up.

Not an jab; just a recommendation. :ThmbUp:

If I remember correctly someone else was supposed to show up here weren't they?

[Zenyatta To Crush]

Here is the link for the Apple Blossom PP's...

Scroll to almost the bottom of the page and click on "Ultimate PP's" next to Zenyatta for April 9th.

Apple Blossom PP's (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Darley/sire_summary.htm)

Its funny looking through these pp's because the other horses are nowhere near Zenyatta's league. Don't be afraid of War Echo, Joanied, she hasn't beaten anyone and doesn't stand a chance against Big Z. They could run 6 furlongs in 1:18 and Zenyatta will still blow past them down the stretch. All Mike Smith needs to do is...keep her to the outside the whole way around the track (none of that swerving to the inside stuff) and try not to fall off.

[BluegrassProf]

If I remember correctly someone else was supposed to show up here weren't they?Hey, you can prod all you want, but it's irrelelvant: it doesn't change the dynamics of this race as it currently stands. As usual, try as you might to make it so, it's not an "RA vs. Z" thing.

It is what it is. Focus.

Simply remember this running commentary when crying "16 WINZZZ!" with unabashed exstacy. Very simple. :ThmbUp:

[ghostyapper]

Hey, you can prod all you want, but it's irrelelvant: it doesn't change the dynamics of this race as it currently stands. As usual, try as you might to make it so, it's not an "RA vs. Z" thing.

It is what it is. Focus.

Simply remember this running commentary when crying "16 WINZZZ!" with unabashed exstacy. Very simple. :ThmbUp:

Great point and well said. :ThmbUp:

Afterall it is very easy to win 16 races in a row, especially in this era.

Go ask another top filly how easy it is to bring your game every race ;)

[joanied]

Hey, you can prod all you want, but it's irrelelvant: it doesn't change the dynamics of this race as it currently stands. As usual, try as you might to make it so, it's not an "RA vs. Z" thing.

It is what it is. Focus.

Simply remember this running commentary when crying "16 WINZZZ!" with unabashed exstacy. Very simple. :ThmbUp:

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: and what it is...is a mare we'll never see the likes of again...not just her race record...the absolute poetry in motion, charisma, beauty and damned good dance steps...she is what she is...un-be-leivaaaaabbble:jump: :jump: :jump:

[joanied]

Here is the link for the Apple Blossom PP's...

Scroll to almost the bottom of the page and click on "Ultimate PP's" next to Zenyatta for April 9th.

Apple Blossom PP's (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Darley/sire_summary.htm)

Its funny looking through these pp's because the other horses are nowhere near Zenyatta's league. Don't be afraid of War Echo, Joanied, she hasn't beaten anyone and doesn't stand a chance against Big Z. They could run 6 furlongs in 1:18 and Zenyatta will still blow past them down the stretch. All Mike Smith needs to do is...keep her to the outside the whole way around the track (none of that swerving to the inside stuff) and try not to fall off.

I looked...hahaha...thanks, Grits...and she will blow right by 'em...a locomotive, hell...a "tremendous machine"...and maybe I'll feel the wind as she does it...whishhhhh:) ...Mike won't have to do any weavin' & bobbin'...and his not falling off reminds me of Lucien Lauren in the Belmont..."Ronnie, don't fall off" :D ...
I'm so excited, you'd think I was gonna be there....why, of why, did I ever have to leave the race track:( :faint:

[keithw84]

It would be kinda funny I guess if Asmussen's War Echo somehow beat Zenyatta. Then they'd have to have a Zardana - War Echo match race to see who's best.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Seabiscuit@AR]

The irony of it all

One of the main accusations levelled against Zenyatta in the horse of the year arguments was that she never left California and only beat up on restricted competition in California

Well a B grade Californian stakes horse called Zardana goes eastward and defeats the all conquering hero of the East Rachel. RA fans cry that Rachel was short (quite possible) or that maybe Zardana is a dirt monster (unlikely)

Now Zenyatta goes eastward and runs into one of these outside Californian races and people start crying how weak the race is

From what I can tell while California has small fields the quality is still there. Californian horses are still a pretty strong group

[horses4courses]

She is a terrific athlete, no doubt.

Oozing class, and charisma, Z is just exceptional!

Tougher races are down the road, though, and the more challenges she faces, the more likely it is that she may lose a race some day.

Friday's race sure doesn't look like it will pose any problems for her......

Good weather forecast too :ThmbUp:

[WinterTriangle]

...obviously the trainers don't want to face her...kind of 'chicken $hit', but there ya have it.

speaks loudly, doesn't it. :)


I kinda feel bad for Cella because he really tried to make this a great race.

Me too, but there are a lot of other disappointed connections who would have loved to race for 3rd or 4th money in the AP when it was $5mil with the orig RA and Zen in it.

Oh well.

[Spalding No!]

From what I can tell while California has small fields the quality is still there. Californian horses are still a pretty strong group

Lenscrafters takes just one hour to make you a pair of glasses...

[chickenhead]

I predict she will be defeated. Somebody gets away with some sneaky fractions, she lays off too far, kick isn't quite there. Something. The Gods of Message Board Discord and Discontent demand it. It is fate.

They demand we make sense of that happening. In as many threads as possible.

So it is written, so it will be.

[BombsAway Bob]

I predict she will be defeated. Somebody gets away with some sneaky fractions, she lays off too far, kick isn't quite there. Something.
The Gods of Message Board Discord and Discontent demand it. It is fate.
They demand we make sense of that happening.
In as many threads as possible.
So it is written, so it will be.
When i saw the DRF online Headline,
------
Champ will face only four in Apple Blossom (http://www.drf.com/news/article/111956.html)
By Mary Rampellini - www.drf.com (http://www.drf.com/) It was all about Zenyatta on Tuesday at Oaklawn Park, where she arrived late morning and shortly afterwards drew post 4 in a field of five for the Grade 1, $500,000 Apple Blossom. The 1 1/8-mile race for fillies and mares will be run Friday.
-------
all i could think of was...
Cigar...Pacific Classic...Field of Five...
"Can't Lose..."

[Zenyatta To Crush]

Number of Graded Stakes Wins Against Older Horses (3 years old and up):

Zenyatta = 13

Rest Of Field = 0

I'm looking forward to Zenyatta running on dirt again, even if she's facing grocery baggers. She'll see tougher competition later this year. Lets just enjoy every race she runs in, even the easy ones.

[breezing]

i'm a zenyatta homer but i refuse to fall into the "she can't possibly lose" camp - this is horse racing for gods sake. i'm hoping this is just some trash talking going on because on any given day any horse can lose.

[Market Mover]

Lenscrafters takes just one hour to make you a pair of glasses...


Not in all cases. If the frame is a drill-mounted frame or if your prescription requires anti-reflective coating and progressive lens design, they will need to ship it out to an outside lab. And the turnaround is about 5-10 business days...

[Spalding No!]

Not in all cases. If the frame is a drill-mounted frame or if your prescription requires anti-reflective coating and progressive lens design, they will need to ship it out to an outside lab. And the turnaround is about 5-10 business days...

Surely it can't be that hard to fasten two Coke bottles together...

[PaceAdvantage]

Well a B grade Californian stakes horse called Zardana goes eastward and defeats the all conquering hero of the East Rachel. RA fans cry that Rachel was short (quite possible) or that maybe Zardana is a dirt monster (unlikely)The jury is still out on whether or not Zardana is actually a B grade DIRT horse. She's a B grade synthetic horse. As of now, she's pretty much an A grade DIRT horse in my book until proven otherwise.

I would have very much liked to see how she would have done against Zenyatta on the dirt, but we don't get that either...

[PaceAdvantage]

I predict she will be defeated.Not a chance. I don't even have to look at the PPs (which I haven't).

[joanied]

Not a chance. I don't even have to look at the PPs (which I haven't).

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Granite]

Not a chance. I don't even have to look at the PPs (which I haven't).

I'll take a shot against her. Short field, her running style, and the surface might work against her. I'll probably lose, but I'll still try.

[OntheRail]

You know Cella could of kept this a class filled race by offering say a bonus 500 grand to any horse that beat Zenyatta. That could of brought a few more horses to the gate.

The 123 is pathetic.

Oh well should be a walk over... but just like Looking At Lucky's race anything can happen however remote it seems.

So if the track comes up damp will they still run her?

I think I'll bet War Echo or all others to win... cause the price on Zenyatta will be so short it'll need a box to set on just to make grade. :D

[Kimsus]

You know Cella could of kept this a class filled race by offering say a bonus 500 grand to any horse that beat Zenyatta. That could of brought a few more horses to the gate.

The 123 is pathetic.

Oh well should be a walk over... but just like Looking At Lucky's race anything can happen however remote it seems.

So if the track comes up damp will they still run her?

I think I'll bet War Echo or all others to win... cause the price on Zenyatta will be so short it'll need a box to set on just to make grade. :D

The weight for conditions was set awhile back when the annoucement was made, if Rachel was in the race she would also be carrying 123lbs. This race isn't being run under handicap conditions.

[thorobasePA]

Assuming she wins with ease, is there any indication as to what her next race(s) will be?

[WinterTriangle]

anything can happen however remote it seems.



THat is correct in any race.

We are in for some terrible storms shortly. I doubt they have the kind I'm talking about in SoCal....lightning lighting up the sky for hours, hail, and strong winds.

That coupled with the extremely short runway at Hot Springs, where Z landed yesterday, and which (understandably) freaked her a little from what I hear, I guess they have to brake pretty strongly on a runway like that.

So, I'm a little concerned about her adapting to all this right now, in addition to not having a go over the track, unless they did this morning? It is damp out here now, it rained last night

So----I'm iwth pace, she doesn't lose UNLESS she decides not to lift a hoof, and that is always possible with *any* horse.

[WinterTriangle]

At airport: "The last time a crowd like this turned out , it was for Air Force One,” said Oaklawn's assistant general manager David Longinotti.

HS is the tiniest airport, I've flown in and out a few times, there was only one other person in the "terminal" at the time LOL

[OntheRail]

The weight for conditions was set awhile back when the annoucement was made, if Rachel was in the race she would also be carrying 123lbs. This race isn't being run under handicap conditions.
True... ;) But if they both did not start the race was to revert back to it's original conditions... So why is it still 1 1/8 and not 1 1/16 mile?

They middle mucked around so much they don't know what's going on with this race. :faint:

[netbet]

Since when is 123lbs a handicap?
They would have to have her carry to Toyota Prius to maybe lose against this group...123lbs is a laugh.

[breezing]

THat is correct in any race.

We are in for some terrible storms shortly. I doubt they have the kind I'm talking about in SoCal....lightning lighting up the sky for hours, hail, and strong winds.

That coupled with the extremely short runway at Hot Springs, where Z landed yesterday, and which (understandably) freaked her a little from what I hear, I guess they have to brake pretty strongly on a runway like that.

So, I'm a little concerned about her adapting to all this right now, in addition to not having a go over the track, unless they did this morning? It is damp out here now, it rained last night

So----I'm iwth pace, she doesn't lose UNLESS she decides not to lift a hoof, and that is always possible with *any* horse.

she was on the track this morning.

edit - forgot to add link http://www.drf.com/news/article/111976.html

[statik27]

she was on the track this morning.

edit - forgot to add link http://www.drf.com/news/article/111976.html

I love how it says this is the first time she's been on dirt since last may. Ummm sheriff's had her on the training track at hollywood several times, which is dirt.

[breezing]

I love how it says this is the first time she's been on dirt since last may. Ummm sheriff's had her on the training track at hollywood several times, which is dirt.
i know but it's still kind of funny. it would be correct if they stated she hasn't had a timed workout on dirt in a while. heck, the inner at SA is also dirt that horses can run/train on.

[born2ride]

i know but it's still kind of funny. it would be correct if they stated she hasn't had a timed workout on dirt in a while. heck, the inner at SA is also dirt that horses can run/train on.
I assumed the article meant she hadn't had a serious work or race on dirt in 2 years, which is correct. Trotting or galloping on dirt at Hollywood is not the same as an official work, and she's been working on the AWS.

[Nikki1997]

From DRF today:

http://www.drf.com/news/article/112007.html

[HPFridays]

3/5?? :lol:

•One Mile And One Eighth
•STAKES
•First Half Late Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta
•6:25PM
pgm horse weight jockey trainer odds
1 Be Fair 120 Calvin H. Borel D. Wayne Lukas 8-1
2 Taptam 117 M. Clifton Berry W. Bret Calhoun 10-1
3 War Echo 120 Shaun Bridgmohan Steven M. Asmussen 7-2
4 Zenyatta 123 Mike E. Smith John A. Shirreffs 3-5
5 Just Jenda 120 Terry J. Thompson Cindy Jones 3-1

http://oaklawnpark.com/races.aspx?date=04-09-2010

[upset]

the trackman isn't being very realistic shoudn't the big mare be 1/9 on the morning line?

[Zenyatta To Crush]

the trackman isn't being very realistic shoudn't the big mare be 1/9 on the morning line?
I don't know much about odds making but aren't you supposed to make the odds close to what you think the fans will bet them? 3/5 is ridiculous. She should obviously be 1/9. Maybe the oddsmaker isn't used to such lopsided fields...or they know something WE don't know...hmmmm.

[Igeteven]

I predict she will be defeated. Somebody gets away with some sneaky fractions, she lays off too far, kick isn't quite there. Something. The Gods of Message Board Discord and Discontent demand it. It is fate.

They demand we make sense of that happening. In as many threads as possible.

So it is written, so it will be.

You maybe right on this, I believe they have push the envelope on the horse and should be retired before she breaks down.

If that happen, everyone would see horse racing get another black eye.

[statik27]

You maybe right on this, I believe they have push the envelope on the horse and should be retired before she breaks down.

If that happen, everyone would see horse racing get another black eye.

First let me say :ThmbDown: to this post.

Secondly, the oddsmaker is smoking dope with this line. 3/1 on Just Jenda? 7/2 on War Echo. The public is going to make every horse in this race not named Zenyatta double digits. Now this doesn't mean the big mare can't be beat, its a horse race, but its not the oddsmakers job to guess the outcome. His job is to guess what the public will do.

statik

[redeye007]

Why are they taking another chance with Zenyatta? She's done everything a horse could possibly do. She deserves to be retired!

[upset]

Why are they taking another chance with Zenyatta? She's done everything a horse could possibly do. She deserves to be retired!
First off this is a glorified public workout. Taking a chance would be entering her in the Met mile around one turn at Belmont. As far as retireing her, horses peak at 5 years old. I don't know how many times shes been hit but i'm guessing not many. I don't think Smith had time to hit her in the breeders cup He was to busy weaving his way threw traffic. From where i'm sitting she has a title to earn this year.

[Fager Fan]

Why are they taking another chance with Zenyatta? She's done everything a horse could possibly do. She deserves to be retired!

Has she beat males on dirt? Has she tried the grass? Has she beat top competition numerous times? Has she won the Arc? Has whe won the BC Classic twice?

No offense meant to you, but the statement that a horse has done all it can possibly do is simply incorrect. A horse can never do all that it's possible to do. It reminds me of the saying that a horse has nothing left to prove. Also wrong. There's always more to prove, always. If winning the JCGC 5 times is impressive, then winning it a 6th time is even more impressive.

This mare still has lots to prove. She's fantastic, don't get me wrong, and certainly one of the best fillies or mares in history, but I want to see how she does on dirt against top competition, see if she can catch quality horses who aren't stopping on the front end.

[ghostyapper]

Has she beat males on dirt? Has she tried the grass? Has she beat top competition numerous times? Has she won the Arc? Has whe won the BC Classic twice?

No offense meant to you, but the statement that a horse has done all it can possibly do is simply incorrect. A horse can never do all that it's possible to do. It reminds me of the saying that a horse has nothing left to prove. Also wrong. There's always more to prove, always. If winning the JCGC 5 times is impressive, then winning it a 6th time is even more impressive.

This mare still has lots to prove. She's fantastic, don't get me wrong, and certainly one of the best fillies or mares in history, but I want to see how she does on dirt against top competition, see if she can catch quality horses who aren't stopping on the front end.

It's an attitude too many have for the game today. If a horse beats another once or wins 1 type of race that horse then has "nothing left to prove" in that circumstance. Greatness is proven with performances and also repetition.

[lamboguy]

ZENYATTA is truly one great horse. in today's race, as weak as it is, she might not be sitting dead last. that distinction might belong to WAR ECHO. in all of ZENYATTA'S races, she has never been anywhere but dead last on the backside, and has never had a horse pass her in her career. the only thing i would question today is if WAR ECHO makes a premature move and either makes ZENYATTA go earlier than what she is used to going or that WAR ECHO actually passes her.

[Cadillakin]

This mare still has lots to prove. She's fantastic, don't get me wrong, and certainly one of the best fillies or mares in history, but I want to see how she does on dirt against top competition, see if she can catch quality horses who aren't stopping on the front end.
Obviously, you haven't much skill as a pace handicapper because Zenyatta's wins are NOT a result of horses stopping in front of her, but rather, sheer exhilarating speed.. And that speed is measurable, friend.

Zenyatta has finished her last 5/16h's in less than 29 seconds on at least 5 occasions, and is commonly timed in 29.2 or thereabouts.. In the Ladies Secret of 08, Zenyatta finished her last 5/16th's in 28.2... and followed that up with a blistering 34.1 final 3/8ths in the Breeders Cup - Ladies.. That's a sprinters speed, pal. In fact, if you measure the fastest sprinters in the land from the 3/8ths to the finish, most of them finish MUCH SLOWER than Zenyatta.. Nobody since Secretariat even comes close to that kind of speed at the end of their main track races.. at any distance...

And finally, if you watched the BC Classic and thought Gio Ponti was stopping in front of her with his 4-length head start turning for home, you better find a new hobby, buddy.. Coz you ain't got the skills...

[46zilzal]

Nobody since Secretariat even comes close to that kind of speed at the end of their main track races.. at any distance...

.
I beg to differ but Rumbo and Caveat made moves in that range as did Aldebaran......Rare but not an isolated phenomenon.

[Fager Fan]

Obviously, you haven't much skill as a pace handicapper because Zenyatta's wins are NOT a result of horses stopping in front of her, but rather, sheer exhilarating speed.. And that speed is measurable, friend.

Zenyatta has finished her last 5/16h's in less than 29 seconds on at least 5 occasions, and is commonly timed in 29.2 or thereabouts.. In the Ladies Secret of 08, Zenyatta finished her last 5/16th's in 28.2... and followed that up with a blistering 34.1 final 3/8ths in the Breeders Cup - Ladies.. That's a sprinters speed, pal. In fact, if you measure the fastest sprinters in the land from the 3/8ths to the finish, most of them finish MUCH SLOWER than Zenyatta.. Nobody since Secretariat even comes close to that kind of speed at the end of their main track races.. at any distance...

And finally, if you watched the BC Classic and thought Gio Ponti was stopping in front of her with his 4-length head start turning for home, you better find a new hobby, buddy.. Coz you ain't got the skills...

Gio Ponti is a turf horse the last I looked.

Zenyatta has almost lost to far inferior competition who slowed it down on the front. To her credit, she's amazingly been able to get up there in time for what is now 15 times in a row. Will she be able to do that on dirt, when a horse like Rachel or Quality Road has 5 or 10 lengths on her turning for home, and they're not stopping?

This is what I want to know if she can do, and we won't find that out today given the field. I can only hope that she stays healthy and we do see her against top dirt horses in the future.

By the way, I actually am your buddy from way back on usenet.

[PaceAdvantage]

After having actually looked at this field, I have to say, I agree with the odds line more than some people here.

Zenyatta is clearly the best horse in this field, however, if Just Jenda, Taptam or War Echo run back to one of their best races, and Zenyatta regresses even just a little, the big mare could be in for more trouble than some dare to think about.

I don't see this as an absolute walkover anymore...I take back what I said before I had a chance to look at the PPs.

[joanied]

After having actually looked at this field, I have to say, I agree with the odds line more than some people here.

Zenyatta is clearly the best horse in this field, however, if Just Jenda, Taptam or War Echo run back to one of their best races, and Zenyatta regresses even just a little, the big mare could be in for more trouble than some dare to think about.

I don't see this as an absolute walkover anymore...I take back what I said before I had a chance to look at the PPs.

Me too, PA...that is the thing with racing...there really is no sure thing...remember that race in CA. with Annabelle's Creation...granted Mike screwed up and Z won because she is great...this race has me nervous...and although Z carries only 123...she's still giving away a ton of weight.

[joanied]

Het PA..... Good omen...Mike just won the Count Fleet and for a few second it looked like he wasn't gonna get there...but, shades of Z, he got there in the last jump...I am feeling better now:jump: :jump: :jump:

Go, Zenyatta...all....the.....way:jump: :jump: :jump:

[letswastemoney]

If there was an upset,

I think Just Jenda might be good enough. She will be close to the pace and have first jump.

Although Be Fair will control the pace, I just don't think she will last.

I want to say it would be War Echo, but War Echo comes from off the pace like Zenyatta does...and if they slow things down and Zenyatta can't close the same, I don't believe War Echo will.

Then again, War Echo is young and improving, so who knows?

But most likely Zenyatta will win. Yup. It would take lightning to stop her.

(lol it would be odd if she suddenly loses after I said that)

[Show Me the Wire]

ZENYATTA is truly one great horse. in today's race, as weak as it is, she might not be sitting dead last. that distinction might belong to WAR ECHO. in all of ZENYATTA'S races, she has never been anywhere but dead last on the backside, and has never had a horse pass her in her career. the only thing i would question today is if WAR ECHO makes a premature move and either makes ZENYATTA go earlier than what she is used to going or that WAR ECHO actually passes her.

Producing the last run is not very beneficial on dirt, as it is on some aws'. Look for Zenyatta to move earlier today.

[bisket]

she looks mahvalous.

[bisket]

just jenda is the only i worry with she could suprise, but not today.

[BluegrassProf]

Zenyatta is clearly the best horse in this field, however, if Just Jenda, Taptam or War Echo run back to one of their best races, and Zenyatta regresses even just a little, the big mare could be in for more trouble than some dare to think about.I must say, these are big, big ifs. Not to discount them, but given the context, seems quite the stretch.

Still looks wildly overmatched to me, whatever implications that might entail.

Safe trip to all. :ThmbUp:

[boogazie]

Whoosh :)

[bisket]

zoom!!!!!!! 5 wide she swallowed them up like she was breezing in the morning. :cool:

[KirisClown]

1I9_Tx9t7z0

[Sekrah]

Yes.. Very impressive.. She crushed 4 horses, none of which have a graded stakes win in the past 8 months.. :rolleyes: I'm blown away.

[only11]

Yes.. Very impressive.. She crushed 4 horses, none of which have a graded stakes win in the past 8 months.. :rolleyes: I'm blown away.
HOW MANY HORSES WERE IN RAs RETURN?

[ezrabrooks]

I wish they would go ahead and ship her to CD...just to see the AssMan's ass pucker..

[PaceAdvantage]

How would our most passionate Zenyatta fans rate the horses who finished behind her today? How many lengths better or worse are they then the horses that finished 12+ lengths behind Rachel & Zardana?

Me? I would put the horses who finished 12+ lengths behind Rachel & Zardana in about the same class as the horses who finished behind Zenyatta today.

That's a fair statement I believe. Does anyone disagree?

[bisket]

How would our most passionate Zenyatta fans rate the horses who finished behind her today? How many lengths better or worse are they then the horses that finished 12+ lengths behind Rachel & Zardana?

Me? I would put the horses who finished 12+ lengths behind Rachel & Zardana in about the same class as the horses who finished behind Zenyatta today.

That's a fair statement I believe. Does anyone disagree?
yes. but the fact that rachel was 12 lengths ahead doesn't mean she's faster than zenyatta. zen does what's needed to win.

[PaceAdvantage]

yes. but the fact that rachel was 12 lengths ahead doesn't mean she's faster than zenyatta. zen does what's needed to win.I never said she was, nor was I trying to imply such a thing.

I simply asked a simple question.

Of course, you know my history, and you know that I still believe Rachel is the better horse, and will show that when they finally meet.

But that wasn't really my point. My point was to introduce proper perspective...that's all.

[GlenninOhio]

How would our most passionate Zenyatta fans rate the horses who finished behind her today? How many lengths better or worse are they then the horses that finished 12+ lengths behind Rachel & Zardana?

Me? I would put the horses who finished 12+ lengths behind Rachel & Zardana in about the same class as the horses who finished behind Zenyatta today.

That's a fair statement I believe. Does anyone disagree?

So I guess your point is that Jess shouldn't have chickened out?

Seriously, Pace, what could Zenyatta possibly have done this afternoon to impress you?

[bisket]

lets just hope i want revenge,quality road, rachel, and zenyatta meet in the classic this year. now that would be a race to watch. two speed horses, a stalker, and a closer. all very talented horses.

[Judge Gallivan]

How would our most passionate Zenyatta fans rate the horses who finished behind her today? How many lengths better or worse are they then the horses that finished 12+ lengths behind Rachel & Zardana?

Me? I would put the horses who finished 12+ lengths behind Rachel & Zardana in about the same class as the horses who finished behind Zenyatta today.

That's a fair statement I believe. Does anyone disagree?


Just Jenda is much better horse than Unforgotten.

[born2ride]

I wish they would go ahead and ship her to CD...just to see the AssMan's ass pucker..
I can see you don't like the guy, but you don't have to stoop to name calling. This isn't the grade school playground.

[born2ride]

How would our most passionate Zenyatta fans rate the horses who finished behind her today? How many lengths better or worse are they then the horses that finished 12+ lengths behind Rachel & Zardana?

Me? I would put the horses who finished 12+ lengths behind Rachel & Zardana in about the same class as the horses who finished behind Zenyatta today.

That's a fair statement I believe. Does anyone disagree?
They're all roughly in the same league.

[tzipi]

Yeah those horses were nothing at all. Any handicapper knows that. Their not in the upper league of the top horses today BUT Zenny did what she had to do. She ran them down laughing why she went by for a nice paid workout. I'm glad they kept her in training. She hasn't missed a step. Loving her more each day.

I can't wait till this summer when the top horses are going at it in the top races. I dont want to wait. Bring on the summer and the top dirt and turf races. Plus RA races too :) Warm weather, Belmont and great racing. Ok I gotta stop I'm teasing myself too early :D

[Sekrah]

1. RA wasn't fit, her training got derailed by the weather and Asmussen (notorious for being poor 1st off layoff) didn't have her ready.

2. There was a G2 winner in that race, Zardana.


Don't let the facts get in the way of your agenda though.

[maiom01]

How would our most passionate Zenyatta fans rate the horses who finished behind her today? How many lengths better or worse are they then the horses that finished 12+ lengths behind Rachel & Zardana?

Me? I would put the horses who finished 12+ lengths behind Rachel & Zardana in about the same class as the horses who finished behind Zenyatta today.

That's a fair statement I believe. Does anyone disagree?

And your point is what???

Zenyatta is better...16-0 baby...

[Fager Fan]

Well, I hate to point out the obvious, but the final time of 1:50.71 is slow.

[tzipi]

And your point is what???

Zenyatta is better...16-0 baby...

Remember in racing and sports nobody is better than anyone till they face eachother and we got all year left. I'm sure we will find out by the end of the summer :)

[Cratos]

Zenyatta was absolutely ready to roll this evening at Oaklawn Park in the Apple Blossom and I truly believe that if she had a legitimate pace ahead of her she would have won a by a larger margin and in a sub-1:48 time.

Does this say that she would beat Rachel? No, because that question (at least to me) has been answered many races ago and fully certified by her BC Classic effort.

One thing you learn in this game if you stay in it long enough and that is any horse can be beaten, but to beat that horse the winning horse must either catch “racing luck” or be the better horse.

On this day at Oaklawn Park in the Apple Blossom neither of those things was going to happen; there would not have been any racing luck and there is no female horse today that is in training in North America that could been in that race that would have beaten Zenyatta.

This horse is a machine; she reminds me of Affirmed when he got his act together as a 4yo, it just didn’t make any difference who they put in there against him because he was virtually unbeatable.

[ghostyapper]

How would our most passionate Zenyatta fans rate the horses who finished behind her today? How many lengths better or worse are they then the horses that finished 12+ lengths behind Rachel & Zardana?

Me? I would put the horses who finished 12+ lengths behind Rachel & Zardana in about the same class as the horses who finished behind Zenyatta today.

That's a fair statement I believe. Does anyone disagree?

Spot on. This analysis would also lead you to believe that Anabaas Creation would have won the bc classic. :confused:

[ghostyapper]

Well, I hate to point out the obvious, but the final time of 1:50.71 is slow.

Thats what you get when speed horses set slow fractions. Closers are never in complete control of their final time.

[Judge Gallivan]

2. There was a G2 winner in that race, Zardana.



Funny how one G2 on plastic counts for Zardana but 8 G1 wins on plastic don't count for Zenyatta.

You gotta love Zenyatta bashers.

[maiom01]

Well, I hate to point out the obvious, but the final time of 1:50.71 is slow.

I hate to point out..Zenyatta doesn't set the time..She just reels them in each and every time..

[born2ride]

And your point is what???

Zenyatta is better...16-0 baby...
Zenyatta is better? :lol: She carried a whopping 1 lb more as a 6 year old than Rachel did when she was 2 years old running in a $52k allowance race. Sorry, but that's just not very impressive.

[born2ride]

Well, I hate to point out the obvious, but the final time of 1:50.71 is slow.
You think her Beyer will be > 90?

[tzipi]

I hate to point out..Zenyatta doesn't set the time..She just reels them in each and every time..

Only Secretariat,Man O War, and Ruffian set their times ;) . Man, I wish I saw them run.

[maiom01]

Zenyatta is better? :lol: She carried a whopping 1 lb more as a 6 year old than Rachel did when she was 2 years old running in a $52k allowance race. Sorry, but that's just not very impressive.

You Rachel fans come up with the craziest shit..It's like arguing with a woman..You just bring shit up out of the blue..

[tzipi]

You Rachel fans come up with the craziest shit..It's like arguing with a woman..

"It's like arguing with a woman". You are a....nevermind. I dont want to get in trouble. ;)

[born2ride]

You Rachel fans come up with the craziest shit..It's like arguing with a woman..You just bring shit up out of the blue..

I'm a fan of both btw. I just happen to think Zenyatta is better than what we've seen, and it's a shame her connections don't challenge her more. With that in mind, reread my post. You might see that I'm not bashing her, I'm just saying the race was unimpressive.

It's the Z Super Fans like yourself that can't seem to grasp the concept of someone liking both horses.

[Judge Gallivan]

Zenyatta is better? :lol: She carried a whopping 1 lb more as a 6 year old than Rachel did when she was 2 years old running in a $52k allowance race. Sorry, but that's just not very impressive.

Rachel Alexandra carried a whopping 1 lb more in the New Orleans Ladies Stakes as a 4-year old than she did when she was 2-year old running in a $52k allowance race. Sorry, but that's just not very relevant.

[Sekrah]

Funny how one G2 on plastic counts for Zardana but 8 G1 wins on plastic don't count for Zenyatta.

You gotta love Zenyatta bashers.


Zenyatta is the greatest synthetic racehorse in American history. All 5 years of the garbage surface.

What more do you want? I can't help that can't accept she hasn't accomplished jack on dirt.

[born2ride]

Rachel Alexandra carried a whopping 1 lb more in the New Orleans Ladies Stakes as a 4-year old than she did when she was 2-year old running in a $52k allowance race. Sorry, but that's just not very relevant.
That's not very impressive either. But then again, the NO Ladies wasn't a handicap. ;)

[joanied]

I read through all the threads we have going on Zenyatta...amazing how many there are ;) ...I am not surprised that some here just can't be happy without finding something negative to talk about...
folks...this was something to celebrate...something to keep in your memory for years to come...how often do we see something as special as this mare...
one must put the competition aside...tougher foes will come as the season progresses...Rachel and the colts will be there to try and take down the Queen...
for now...savor this moment, embed it in your memory, allow yourself the emotions that this sport is supposed to evoke...
it was plain to see Zenyatta was on her toes today...her dancing was more pronounced, she was ready to do battle and it would not have mattered who else was in that gate...#16 was written in the stars...and Zenyatta is the brightest star in the cosmos...and the best thing to happen to racing in a long time...
I wish HRTV had microphones near the grandstand...it must have been incredible to hear the roar of the crowd...I love that Mike took her in front of the grandstand for a victory jog...I so wish I could have been there...
I watched it on my knees in front of the Tv and in silence I felt the chills and had tears in my eyes...
say what you want about the competition today...they tried to ruin it for Zenyatta with that turtle pace...so what does she do...she decies to pick it up on her own and move sooner than usual...this mare knows what she's doing...and what she is doing will be written in the history book and written on my heart....

"is it a bird, is it a plane....no, it is...Zenyattaaaaaaaa"
:jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump:

[DRIVEWAY]

Zenyatta wins another Grade 1 on dirt.
A weak field but she can only beat the horses that show up.
Lifetime record 16 wins in 16 races.
The best horse in training.
The leading contender for 2010 HOY.
When and where will she run next.

[ghostyapper]

What more do you want? I can't help that can't accept she hasn't accomplished jack on dirt.

She's now won 2 G1's on dirt. Guess that's not accomplishing "jack"

[Fager Fan]

Gio Ponti is a turf horse the last I looked.

Zenyatta has almost lost to far inferior competition who slowed it down on the front. To her credit, she's amazingly been able to get up there in time for what is now 15 times in a row. Will she be able to do that on dirt, when a horse like Rachel or Quality Road has 5 or 10 lengths on her turning for home, and they're not stopping?

This is what I want to know if she can do, and we won't find that out today given the field. I can only hope that she stays healthy and we do see her against top dirt horses in the future.

Well, she didn't run a :34.20 final 3 quarters today, else she would've finished in 1:47.58 instead of 1:50.71.

So do you see what I'm saying about meeting quality dirt horses? I think she would've had to run a lot faster today to overtake a Rachel or Quality Road.

[Cratos]

Well, I hate to point out the obvious, but the final time of 1:50.71 is slow.

I hate to retort with the obvious; but final time is a function of pace. Mike Smith against a “snail’s pace” and without hitting Zenyatta, urged her to a 23.73 quarter time from the half to the three-quarters and then let her gallop home to an easy victory while picking up $300K.

[PaceAdvantage]

So I guess your point is that Jess shouldn't have chickened out?

Seriously, Pace, what could Zenyatta possibly have done this afternoon to impress you?I asked a question. That's all. I was looking more for anyone who disagreed with my statement.

Zenyatta did what was expected of her today...

[Show Me the Wire]

I'm a fan of both btw. I just happen to think Zenyatta is better than what we've seen, and it's a shame her connections don't challenge her more. With that in mind, reread my post. You might see that I'm not bashing her, I'm just saying the race was unimpressive.

It's the Z Super Fans like yourself that can't seem to grasp the concept of someone liking both horses.


Zenyatta's connections can't force other connections to enter their horses to insure challenges.

How is the race unimpressive?

The pace setters set a slow pace and the only horse to pass them was Zenyatta under a hand wide, while opening up lengths into a slow pace.

Maybe the really good ones make it look too easy to be appreciated.

[tzipi]

She's now won 2 G1's on dirt. Guess that's not accomplishing "jack"

Ghosty I like Zen and can tell you that was not a G1 race, just a listed one. How many G1 winners were in the race? How many G2 horses were in the race? How many multiple G3 winners were in the race? Pretty postitive those horses won't even make a G1 race or even a G2 the rest of the year. They were just in to pick up board money with RA out. She did her thing though and beautifully :)

[maiom01]

Zenyatta is the greatest synthetic racehorse in American history. All 5 years of the garbage surface.

What more do you want? I can't help that can't accept she hasn't accomplished jack on dirt.

Here it comes..It's like clockwork...:lol:

[ghostyapper]

Well, she didn't run a :34.20 final 3 quarters today, else she would've finished in 1:47.58 instead of 1:50.71.

So do you see what I'm saying about meeting quality dirt horses? I think she would've had to run a lot faster today to overtake a Rachel or Quality Road.

Are you playing dumb or do you really not realize that her best running comes with a target in front of her?

[ghostyapper]

Ghosty I like Zen and can tell you that was not a G1 race, just a listed one.

This does not matter. She won the race and it was a G1 so to say she hasn't accomplished "jack" on dirt is idiotic at this point.

[tzipi]

This does not matter. She won the race and it was a G1 so to say she hasn't accomplished "jack" on dirt is idiotic at this point.

No that's cool. I agree her one race a while back on dirt was great but I'm not going to get all worked up because this race is listed as a G1. It was suppose to be a G1 with RA, maybe Careless Jewel and others, not this as it turned out. G1 races usually have at least G2 winners in it, not all allowance horses. It was a workout race not a top G1 for me. I just don't get worked up over races like that. It could've been listed as a allowance race. G1, G2 Allowance,etc. It was for Zenny to walk and by golly she did. :)

[born2ride]

Zenyatta's connections can't force other connections to enter their horses to insure challenges.

How is the race unimpressive?

The pace setters set a slow pace and the only horse to pass them was Zenyatta under a hand wide, while opening up lengths into a slow pace.

Maybe the really good ones make it look too easy to be appreciated.
A top quality multiple G1 winning BC championship mare running against severly overmatched opponents isn't impressive.

[ghostyapper]

A top quality multiple G1 winning BC championship mare running against severly overmatched opponents isn't impressive.

Don't forget SURFACE SURFACE SURFACE

There's always a carrot when discussing zenyatta's accomplishments that it was done on synthetic and they need to see her on dirt. Now they are using her synthetic accomplishments to try and downplay her dirt peformance today :bang:

[Sekrah]

Umm.. She HAD no Dirt Performance today.. It was a training race against good allowance horses. Why is that fact so tough to grasp?

[Fager Fan]

Are you playing dumb or do you really not realize that her best running comes with a target in front of her?

I'm playing the part of someone who isn't so blinded by favoritism that they can look at a horserace objectively.

Quit with the excuses already. Now she needs a target in front of her to run fast? Please. That's an insult to the mare, who could've run faster today had she been asked down the lane -- without a target in front of her.

That said, this race, when looked at objectively, is going to bolster the confidence of top competitors instead of scare them further off.

[tzipi]

Don't forget SURFACE SURFACE SURFACE

There's always a carrot when discussing zenyatta's accomplishments that it was done on synthetic and they need to see her on dirt. Now they are using her synthetic accomplishments to try and downplay her dirt peformance today :bang:

Ghosty I dont think dirt comes into play today. It was a workout against allowance horses. A G1 turf horse would've walk on those horses ;) . I think her race against Ginger Punch proves she will not run up the track on dirt. Will she be as dominant on dirt? I'm not sure yet but we'll see coming up this summer. And will RA be able to beat Zenny, dont know but we'll see this year. :)

[PaceAdvantage]

Just Jenda is much better horse than Unforgotten.Not if you throw out Unforgotten's Jan30 race at GP...her best races from last year put her easily in reach of Just Jenda, unless you're looking at Just Jenda's best two races from last year at Monmouth.

Unforgotten runs hot and cold. Her hot is on par with Just Jenda...but Just Jenda's best is better than Unforgotten's best...I'll give you that...neither was at their best coming into their Rachel / Zenyatta race...that I think we can agree on.

[PaceAdvantage]

Well, I hate to point out the obvious, but the final time of 1:50.71 is slow.Times look slow in general looking at recent Oaklawn charts...doesn't really tell me much.

[ghostyapper]

I'm playing the part of someone who isn't so blinded by favoritism that they can look at a horserace objectively.

Quit with the excuses already. Now she needs a target in front of her to run fast? Please. That's an insult to the mare, who could've run faster today had she been asked down the lane -- without a target in front of her.

That said, this race, when looked at objectively, is going to bolster the confidence of top competitors instead of scare them further off.

Okay then I guess you are that DUMB. Go watch her races. Like any other closer she will run faster with a target. Take a look at her last race when smith swung her off the rail into the 2 path with the leader in sight. Had there been a faster horse on the lead today she would have simply ran down that faster horse, resulting in a faster final time. It's really not that complicated

So after todays performance you think connections are more confident in facing zenyatta??? The lunacy continues. :bang:

[PaceAdvantage]

You Rachel fans come up with the craziest shit..It's like arguing with a woman..You just bring shit up out of the blue..Ladies and gentlemen...welcome back CMOORE!! :lol:

[ghostyapper]

Umm.. She HAD no Dirt Performance today.. It was a training race against good allowance horses. Why is that fact so tough to grasp?

Okay I got it. Basically we need to just not even bother entering this race in the past performances. Forget about the 300k earnings or anything. We'll just list it as a workout.

You people never disappoint, I'll give you that :D

[Fager Fan]

Times look slow in general looking at recent Oaklawn charts...doesn't really tell me much.

A $16,000 aoc went in 1:45.47 for 8.5f.

[JustRalph]

It was slow......... but running by them with her ears pricked like she was shopping for a handbag is damn sure impressive.

I just wonder if we will ever get to see her in full flight? She doesn't even look like she is trying..........

I am a Rachel fan over Zenyatta ........but it is a lot of fun. Two very different running styles though..........

I wish my old man was here to see her........He was a huge Ruffian fan, I would love to hear his comparison............

[ezrabrooks]

How would our most passionate Zenyatta fans rate the horses who finished behind her today? How many lengths better or worse are they then the horses that finished 12+ lengths behind Rachel & Zardana?

Me? I would put the horses who finished 12+ lengths behind Rachel & Zardana in about the same class as the horses who finished behind Zenyatta today.

That's a fair statement I believe. Does anyone disagree?

And you were making 3/5 a good line. GGM!!

[tzipi]

Okay I got it. Basically we need to just not even bother entering this race in the past performances. Forget about the 300k earnings or anything. We'll just list it as a workout.

You people never disappoint, I'll give you that :D

ghosty RA fans took it on the chin from Zen fans when RA was running against some actual G1 and G2 horses in the Woodward and other races. Plenty of threads here to look at that. This field was nothing more than an allowance field and a workout for Zen. The thing here to look at is what Zenny was suppose to do easily which was win, and she did beatifully. :)

[Pick6]

How would our most passionate Zenyatta fans rate the horses who finished behind her today? How many lengths better or worse are they then the horses that finished 12+ lengths behind Rachel & Zardana?

Me? I would put the horses who finished 12+ lengths behind Rachel & Zardana in about the same class as the horses who finished behind Zenyatta today.

That's a fair statement I believe. Does anyone disagree?
Fair question. Of course Rachel was all out trying to win, while Zenyatta appeared to be breezing.

Anybody who does not acknowledge that Zenyatta could run seconds faster if necessary to win here has few or no handicapping skills. As a trainer I prefer a horse who does exactly what is necessary to win, and little more. It makes my job significantly easier, saves the horse from unnecessary strain, and keeps the weight off in future handicap events because the wins are not "impressive".

Although I still believe a Z/RA confrontation is < 50%, I will enjoy any extra odds generated from this "workout" if it does indeed occur. Maybe CD puts up $2-3M for a showdown in May/June, if RA does not lose before that.

[PaceAdvantage]

And you were making 3/5 a good line. GGM!!I was? I said I agreed with it more than the others...

I love guys like you who are always 100% correct after the fact. Ballsy you are... :lol:

[maiom01]

Ladies and gentlemen...welcome back CMOORE!! :lol:

What in the world are you talking about? Just because I'm not a fan of TLG. I'm Cmoore...:faint:

[ghostyapper]

Anybody who does not acknowledge that Zenyatta could run seconds faster if necessary to win here has few or no handicapping skills.

Do not rule out the fact that these people may simply be legally blind. :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Anybody who does not acknowledge that Zenyatta could run seconds faster if necessary to win here has few or no handicapping skills.Seconds faster? You may want to revise that if you want to keep your "Lots & Lots Of Handicapping Skills" badge.

Ghosty too I see...

[PaceAdvantage]

What in the world are you talking about? Just because I'm not a fan of TLG. I'm Cmoore...:faint:Yup. That's me. I label all the non-fans of TLG here (and there are more than a few) as Cmoore...ummm..NOPE...I don't...

I only label you as Cmoore...I wonder why? Oh, that's right...I know why....because it's actually true.

Ever finish scoring that contest? :lol:

[Pick6]

I saw her run today. I can handicap. Seconds stands. I hope you can handicap and acknowledge this simple fact or I guess you cannot handicap.

Or are you saying the horse could not handle the footing or something? Because there is simply no other way that Z could not have run WAY faster than that workout today.

[maiom01]

Yup. That's me. I label all the non-fans of TLG here (and there are more than a few) as Cmoore...ummm..NOPE...I don't...

I only label you as Cmoore...I wonder why? Oh, that's right...I know why....because it's actually true.

Ever finish scoring that contest? :lol:

What contest??

[PaceAdvantage]

I saw her run today. I can handicap. Seconds stands. I hope you can handicap and acknowledge this simple fact or I guess you cannot handicap.

Or are you saying the horse could not handle the footing or something? Because there is simply no other way that Z could not have run WAY faster than that workout today.If you think she could have run SECONDS faster, then I have nothing left to say.

It's generally accepted to be a fallacy anyway that a horse can run DEMONSTRABLY faster IN A RACE "if asked" compared to being "not asked."

A couple of fifths maybe...but SECONDS? That's an eternity in a horse race.

[PaceAdvantage]

What contest??Oh...you're good...

[ghostyapper]

If you think she could have run SECONDS faster, then I have nothing left to say.

It's generally accepted to be a fallacy anyway that a horse can run DEMONSTRABLY faster IN A RACE "if asked" compared to being "not asked."

Seconds faster does not only mean had she been asked. Today with that pace there is no way she could have run seconds faster had smith asked her. Had it been a faster pace with a talented speed router there is no doubt in my mind her final time would have been SECONDS FASTER.

How could you possibly not see this?

[ezrabrooks]

I was? I said I agreed with it more than the others...

I love guys like you who are always 100% correct after the fact. Ballsy you are... :lol:

I think most were trashing the ML...and you were the only voice in the wilderness who agreed with it..

[ezrabrooks]

If you think she could have run SECONDS faster, then I have nothing left to say.

It's generally accepted to be a fallacy anyway that a horse can run DEMONSTRABLY faster IN A RACE "if asked" compared to being "not asked."

A couple of fifths maybe...but SECONDS? That's an eternity in a horse race.

She won in a near canter... Stick with who she beat...not her time.

[PaceAdvantage]

Seconds faster does not only mean had she been asked. Today with that pace there is no way she could have run seconds faster had smith asked her. Had it been a faster pace with a talented speed router there is no doubt in my mind her final time would have been SECONDS FASTER.

How could you possibly not see this?Is that what he was saying? If so, then my apologies. Obviously, with a faster pace, the final time would have likely been faster.

On a different track, the final time would have been SECONDS faster as well.

That's not what I thought he was saying. Here's what I was replying to:

Anybody who does not acknowledge that Zenyatta could run seconds faster if necessary to win here has few or no handicapping skills.Win here...meaning this race...today...on that track...at that pace...

No, I don't believe she could have run SECONDS faster today. That's what he was saying, wasn't it?

[ezrabrooks]

Yup. That's me. I label all the non-fans of TLG here (and there are more than a few) as Cmoore...ummm..NOPE...I don't...

I only label you as Cmoore...I wonder why? Oh, that's right...I know why....because it's actually true.

Ever finish scoring that contest? :lol:

Non-Fans of TLG? He has fans? Now that is a stretch.

[PaceAdvantage]

Non-Fans of TLG? He has fans? Now that is a stretch.See...there is no way I would say you're Cmoore... :lol:

[Pick6]

What were you watching? Anybody who cannot acknowledge she was almost trotting for the entire race must be blind.

Again, are you claiming she was not handling the track or something? What other explanation do you have that she could not run seconds faster today if necessary?

[PaceAdvantage]

What were you watching? Anybody who cannot acknowledge she was almost trotting for the entire race must be blind.

Again, are you claiming she was not handling the track or something? What other explanation do you have that she could not run seconds faster today if necessary?Seconds faster is a HUGE difference. You're telling me she could have won by 10+ extra lengths today if she had only been asked?

That's what you're saying. Instead of 4 1/4 lengths, she would have won by over 15 if she would have only been asked...

That's absurd. But that's what you're saying when you say she could have run SECONDS faster.

[ghostyapper]

Is that what he was saying? If so, then my apologies. Obviously, with a faster pace, the final time would have likely been faster.

On a different track, the final time would have been SECONDS faster as well.

That's not what I thought he was saying. Here's what I was replying to:

Win here...meaning this race...today...on that track...at that pace...

No, I don't believe she could have run SECONDS faster today. That's what he was saying, wasn't it?

I don't want to speak for someone but "if needed" means if she needed to win the race, meaning she was running down another horse hence a different pace scenario

[Pick6]

Seconds faster is a HUGE difference. You're telling me she could have won by 10+ extra lengths today if she had only been asked?

That's what you're saying. Instead of 4 1/4 lengths, she would have won by over 15 if she would have only been asked...

That's absurd. But that's what you're saying when you say she could have run SECONDS faster.
Absurd? You really are serious then that she could not have extended herself in the final 1/4 and run a 23 3/5 second final quarter if necessary? She has done it almost every race she has run, notably here 2 years ago. and she is unquestionably a superior racehorse now compare to then.

You must have not seen the race. Again, are you saying she could not handle the surface or something? This is the only logical explanation for your extreme position.

[PaceAdvantage]

Absurd? You really are serious then that she could not have extended herself in the final 1/4 and run a 23 3/5 second final quarter if necessary?That's correct. I don't believe she could have run two seconds faster if necessary, on that track, against that pace. I don't believe she could have won that race by over 15 lengths if she were simply asked to run faster, which is what you're basically saying if you give her the capability to run a 23 3/5 second final quarter instead of the 25+ final quarter she actually ran.

Maybe we're saying two different things here...

[Pick6]

I'm not really sure what you are saying. Because if you are saying she could not run seconds faster to win if necessary (implying another faster horse in the field) based on her "workout" performance then you really don't have much of an argument. And I am fairly certain that 95 of 100 reasonable people who watched that race would agree she could have run a 23 3/5 final quarter like she usually does, which is seconds faster.

Again, are you saying she could not handle the footing or something? Only logical explanation for your position.

[PaceAdvantage]

Maybe some others would like to jump in with an opinion. We've basically stated ours more than once.

[Cratos]

Given the pace of the race and if Mike Smith had pushed her from the 6f on, I believe her final final time would have been in the 1:48.62 range

[chickenhead]

This field sucked. She was a closer in a slowly run race, over totally overmatched competition, and it naturally resulted in a less than blistering final time. Just like a 1000 other races. And, who cares. She won, that's it. There isn't some great insight to be unraveled. She won.

NEXT

[PaceAdvantage]

Given the pace of the race and if Mike Smith had pushed her from the 6f on, I believe her final final time would have been in the 1:48.62 rangeAnyone else want to take a shot? This is getting good.

[Pick6]

How do the variants today compare to 2008 Apple Blossom race day at 1 1/16? It was 15 then, and she ran 1:42 3/5 with a final quarter in the 23 3/5 range.

She is certainly a superior competitor compared to '08.

[born2ride]

She is certainly a superior competitor compared to '08.
And this is based on ...?

[bks]

How many horses are best in their fourth lifetime race?

[born2ride]

How many horses are best in their fourth lifetime race?
Count the number of times a horse has raced four or more times and you have your answer. :D

[senortout]

An interesting point to bring up regarding the Apple Blossom...

The race is "Invitational"

Anyone know all the horses who were invited?

Here's the list

Afleet Deceit...B.F., 4 (had run 2nd to Rachel in the Fantasy at Oaklawn last year)

Baffin B.M, 5 earning of only $70,000 plus

Bambera (Venezuela) S. American sensation, winner of I think 14 of 17 races there, badly disappointing her connections in the GR.3 Rampart at Gulfstream Park 3/20/2010

Be Fair B.F., 4 actually ran (3rd)

Black Magic Mamma B.F., 4 and also-ran Penn National 4/9/2010

Careless Jewel GR/Ro F.,4 also ran in BC Ladies Classic, AFAIK unraced in 2010. Alabama winner.

Casanova Move Dk.B. F., 4 1st Gulfstream Park alw 3/13/2010

Clear Sailing B.F. 4 last in the New Orleans HCP to Zardana

Dancin Perfect B.F., 4 ALW Oclaiming winner 2/8/2010 Fair Grounds (turf)

my research must stop here but the rest of the invited follow...

Daring Times
Don't Forget Gil
Euphony
Flying Spur
Freedom Star
Funny Moon
Gripsholm Castle
Hustle
Just Jenda (RAN) 4th
Justwhistledixie
Life At Ten
Love To Tell
Luna Vega
Morena
My Baby Baby
Pamona Ball
Payton D'oro
Peach Brew
Pretty Unusual....I would have like to see how she'd have done, myself..
Pure Clan well past her best I'm afraid
Pyramist
Rachel (backed down)
Return The Jewel
Stardom Bound...remember this one?
Starship Angel
Striking Dancer
Superior Storm
Sweet Repent
Taptam Ran....2nd
Tidal Dance
Unforgotten
Unrivalled Belle a decent sort, if I recall correctly
War Echo.....last in the field she was
Zardana a fitting opponent considering the outcome I would think
Zenyatta......she can run she can dance shes the one they hid from alright.

senortout

I know there are some other good ones they didn't invite...but who?

[miesque1127]

This field sucked. She was a closer in a slowly run race, over totally overmatched competition, and it naturally resulted in a less than blistering final time. Just like a 1000 other races. And, who cares. She won, that's it. There isn't some great insight to be unraveled. She won.

NEXT

Best comment period.

[Pace Cap'n]

Don't know how much faster she could have gone in that race, but I'd be willing to bet she could have won the NEXT race as well.

[joanied]

A $16,000 aoc went in 1:45.47 for 8.5f.

Jeeze...Zenyatta doesn't dictate the pace...so how can you find fault in the time...she ran her last 1/4 fast enough, as she always does...if the pace up front had been faster, she would have run faster, and the final time would be faster...why don't you get this?

[born2ride]

An interesting point to bring up regarding the Apple Blossom...

The race is "Invitational"

Anyone know all the horses who were invited?

Here's the list

Afleet Deceit...B.F., 4 (had run 2nd to Rachel in the Fantasy at Oaklawn last year)

Baffin B.M, 5 earning of only $70,000 plus

Bambera (Venezuela) S. American sensation, winner of I think 14 of 17 races there, badly disappointing her connections in the GR.3 Rampart at Gulfstream Park 3/20/2010

Be Fair B.F., 4 actually ran (3rd)

Black Magic Mamma B.F., 4 and also-ran Penn National 4/9/2010

Careless Jewel GR/Ro F.,4 also ran in BC Ladies Classic, AFAIK unraced in 2010. Alabama winner.

Casanova Move Dk.B. F., 4 1st Gulfstream Park alw 3/13/2010

Clear Sailing B.F. 4 last in the New Orleans HCP to Zardana

Dancin Perfect B.F., 4 ALW Oclaiming winner 2/8/2010 Fair Grounds (turf)

my research must stop here but the rest of the invited follow...

Daring Times
Don't Forget Gil
Euphony
Flying Spur
Freedom Star
Funny Moon
Gripsholm Castle
Hustle
Just Jenda (RAN) 4th
Justwhistledixie
Life At Ten
Love To Tell
Luna Vega
Morena
My Baby Baby
Pamona Ball
Payton D'oro
Peach Brew
Pretty Unusual....I would have like to see how she'd have done, myself..
Pure Clan well past her best I'm afraid
Pyramist
Rachel (backed down)
Return The Jewel
Stardom Bound...remember this one?
Starship Angel
Striking Dancer
Superior Storm
Sweet Repent
Taptam Ran....2nd
Tidal Dance
Unforgotten
Unrivalled Belle a decent sort, if I recall correctly
War Echo.....last in the field she was
Zardana a fitting opponent considering the outcome I would think
Zenyatta......she can run she can dance shes the one they hid from alright.

senortout

I know there are some other good ones they didn't invite...but who?
Always in My Heart was left off.

Bambera suffered a nasty cut exposing her tendon shortly after stumbling just after leaving the gate in the Rampart.

The list you compiled are horses that were nominated, we don't know who invitations were sent to.

[hazzardm]

Always in My Heart was left off.

Bambera suffered a nasty cut exposing her tendon shortly after stumbling just after leaving the gate in the Rampart.

The list you compiled are horses that were nominated, we don't know who invitations were sent to.

Sweet Repent seems to be the best of the others on the nominations. With Rachel sprinting, there is no other mares to r against at 9+furlongs. I think StevenFoster is where she lands next.

[JeremyJet]

Anyone else want to take a shot? This is getting good.

I would guesstimate she ran a 100 BSF yesterday. If you factor in the ground, 4-wide on both turns, she would get someting around a 110 Beyer.

Regards,

JeremyJet

[PaceAdvantage]

I would guesstimate she ran a 100 BSF yesterday. If you factor in the ground, 4-wide on both turns, she would get someting around a 110 Beyer.

Regards,

JeremyJetGood point, and one that hasn't been raised up until now...Zenyatta certainly lost a lot of ground around that final turn...but was that necessarily disadvantageous? Someone who knows how the track was playing would be best suited to answer that question. Wouldn't surprise me if they attempted to make the "outside closer" the place to be for Zenyatta...but as I look at the charts, it looks like an even mix of speed and closers won on Friday...

[DeanT]

OP was kind to closers yesterday, imo. This meet seems to be kinder than usual to closers there, I think.

[JeremyJet]

I would guesstimate she ran a 100 BSF yesterday. If you factor in the ground, 4-wide on both turns, she would get someting around a 110 Beyer.

Regards,

JeremyJet

Shave 5 points off those guesstimates. She gets a rather pedestrian 95 Beyer.

Regards,

JeremyJet

[joanied]

Fast as hell fractions today in the AR Derby, yet they finished only about one second faster that Zenny's AB yesterday....hhmmmmmm ;)

[bisket]

OP was kind to closers yesterday, imo. This meet seems to be kinder than usual to closers there, I think.
i have found oaklawn to be one of the fairest tracks around. i don't really see a big bias. now sometimes when the track is drying due to rain its a little slow, but thats to be expected. if you go to fast you get burned, and if pace is moderate; the leaders and stalkers have the edge. that what i like to see when wagering. the best horse win in regards to the race setup.

[JeremyJet]

Fast as hell fractions today in the AR Derby, yet they finished only about one second faster that Zenny's AB yesterday....hhmmmmmm ;)

What's your pernt? The difference between 1:50.71 and 1:49.37 is 12 points on the Beyer scale.

Regards,

JeremyJet

[joanied]

What's your pernt? The difference between 1:50.71 and 1:49.37 is 12 points on the Beyer scale.

Regards,

JeremyJet

Forget the beyers for a minute...point is, the AP time was just a tick off the AR Derby time...folks were mentioning the slow time for the AP...I merely pointed out that it wasn't that much slower that the AR Derby.
That's all.

[classhandicapper]

How would our most passionate Zenyatta fans rate the horses who finished behind her today? How many lengths better or worse are they then the horses that finished 12+ lengths behind Rachel & Zardana?

Me? I would put the horses who finished 12+ lengths behind Rachel & Zardana in about the same class as the horses who finished behind Zenyatta today.

That's a fair statement I believe. Does anyone disagree?

I agree but think it's an irrelevant and even misleading comparison.

The pace of the Rachel/Zardana race was lively enough to sap the energy of the very inferior horses trying to stay with the top two and caused them to be beaten worse.

In the Zenyatta race, the inferior horses were setting the pace and the Z's final time and margin of victory were dictated by them, not the other way around.

Until this concept becomes clear to everyone, IMO some people will keep misjudging some performances.

To be clear, I'm not saying I have some magic wand that coverts all this stuff into easy to use numbers that are more accurate than everyone else's. I just understand conceptually what's going on. So at times I don't take final times and margins literally when they aren't an appropriate measurement of the horse's ability.

In other words, IMO the difference between Zenyatta and the rest of that field is a hell of a lot greater than the margin of victory and she's a lot faster than a mid 90s Beyer. I just can't put an exact appraisal on it. I would prefer to look at her fastest races and assume she's just as capable now because there's no evidence to indicate otherwise.

[classhandicapper]

Seconds faster is a HUGE difference. You're telling me she could have won by 10+ extra lengths today if she had only been asked?

That's what you're saying. Instead of 4 1/4 lengths, she would have won by over 15 if she would have only been asked...

That's absurd. But that's what you're saying when you say she could have run SECONDS faster.

IMO if she was asked to run hard from the quarter pole home she probably would have won by an extra length or two at most. However, if the field was made up of much faster pace setters, she would have gotten into the race at about the same point, run much faster fractions herself, and finished just as well to put up a much faster final time.

This is not true of all horses.

The basic formula is the faster you run early the faster your final time will be until you reach the breaking point. Then the faster you run earlier, the slower your final time will be. (it's not linear)

So the impact the pace will have on final time is dependent on the ability of the horse in question. The same exact change in fractions could cause one horse to run faster and another to run slower inside the same field.

In Zenyatta's case, she has so much extra racing reserve in the tank relative to those horses (something we don't see very often in Graded stakes), IMHO it's almost a 100% certainty that had the pace been faster she would have run a lot faster. Exactly how much I don't know, but close to her previous dirt race is probably a reasonable guesstimate to start. We still don't know where the bottom of her tank is because no one has been good enough to get there yet and she's spent a lot of time racing in slow paced synthetic races.

Of course if she was chasing Dr. Fager's pace, IMO she would make a big run, hang like a rat, and put up a slower final time than her typical peak because the good Doctor would take her past that cracking point while racing well within himself.

edit:

if you want to understand my last two comments a little better, just look at her figures and margins for the races leading up to the BC and then in the BC. It doesn't make any sense until you understand the different race dynamics and her ability.

[PaceAdvantage]

IMO if she was asked to run hard from the quarter pole home she probably would have won by an extra length or two at most. However, if the field was made up of much faster pace setters, she would have gotten into the race at about the same point, run much faster fractions herself, and finished just as well to put up a much faster final time.This is all I was trying to say from the beginning. You take the same exact race, but you have Mike Smith really get into her turning for home...maybe she wins by a little over two more lengths...

[PaceAdvantage]

Did the track change that much from Friday to Saturday at Oaklawn?

The winner of the Arkansas Derby not only ran about five lengths faster than Zenyatta, but he also set the ENTIRE pace, consisting of much, MUCH tougher fractions.

I know, I know, if Zenyatta was in the Ark Derby, she would have benefited from the faster fractions and blown by the winner late...running just as fast as need be to win...

It's just odd to think that a horse who does all the work, sets all the pace, and stops the clock in a faster time didn't actually run the better race.

[JeremyJet]

Did the track change that much from Friday to Saturday at Oaklawn?

The raw fig for the Apple Blossom was a 92 Beyer and they gave the winner a 96. The raw fig for the Arkansas Derby was a 104 Beyer and I guesstimate they'll get something in the mid-to-high 90's.

Regards,

JeremyJet

[bisket]

Did the track change that much from Friday to Saturday at Oaklawn?

The winner of the Arkansas Derby not only ran about five lengths faster than Zenyatta, but he also set the ENTIRE pace, consisting of much, MUCH tougher fractions.

I know, I know, if Zenyatta was in the Ark Derby, she would have benefited from the faster fractions and blown by the winner late...running just as fast as need be to win...

It's just odd to think that a horse who does all the work, sets all the pace, and stops the clock in a faster time didn't actually run the better race.
i guess if you judge everything by the stop watch he did run better than Z.

[chickenhead]

It's just odd to think that a horse who does all the work, sets all the pace, and stops the clock in a faster time didn't actually run the better race.

Of course he ran a better race, he ran his eyeballs out.

What do we learn from this about his abilities? That when he runs his eyeballs out he's pretty good. What do we learn about Z? That she runs 95's in workouts? What is the meaningful comparison we're looking for here?

THERE IS NOTHING MEANINGFUL TO BE TAKEN FROM ZENYATTAS RACE. Other than I guess her "body" seems to handle dirt just fine, still. Her stride looked perfectly comfortable.

[RXB]

THERE IS NOTHING MEANINGFUL TO BE TAKEN FROM ZENYATTAS RACE.

Bingo. Dusting a bunch of horses that were no better than Grade 3 calibre doesn't prove anything that we didn't already know.