Hawthorne Tuesday

[Maverick58034]

I had fun playing Hawthorne on Saturday with the Illinois Derby and what not, so I figured I'd try to play it today.

Race 1

This race really seems like :3:'s to lose. Easily the best BSFs, and has been very close (2nd nose) at this level last out. Retains the same jockey and will surely stalk today. Still, with a 15-1-2-4 record, I can't help but think that he'll find a way to lose. I can't find any real knocks other than the horse's record, so it may be futile trying to beat him.

I think if anyone can beat him, it might be the :6:. He's taking a drop from CLM17500 N2L down to CLM10000N2L, although he wasn't particularly competitive at the 17500 level. It's his third race off a layoff, and improved (37 - 47) from races 1 to 2. The winner of his last race came back to 59 BSF at CLM17500N3L, but lost as the 70 cent favorite. The third place finisher ran 5th with a 61 BSF in his next CLM17500N2L race. This feels like loose footing, and at 2/1 morning line, I won't accept the low price on the hope of improvement.

The :4: seemed fairly interesting, given the 2nd off a layoff and class drop. The trainer is 0/12 on the 2nd off layoff with a sharp class drop, and the horse's lifetime high BSF is 44, obtained in a Maiden Claiming 10,000 at PrM last August. Only posted a 13 BSF last out - not sure if he can improve enough today to make much of an impact, nonetheless win the race.

The :5: tore apart the MSW class at first asking, but that was at FP. Got torn apart when facing CLM25000N2L here last November, although he did flash good speed for 2F. I'm tabbing him as a "LONGshot" with a lifetime high 20 BSF because I expect at least some improvement today, as it's the first race of his 3yo campaign and with how difficult his last race was - he is the biggest class dropper in the race. Nobody from his last race did much their next race, but they were all in much higher classes (e.g. CLM40000N2L) than what's running today. Slowish workouts are a mild concern - would have liked to have seen something sharp.

:2: doesn't interest me too much. His trip notes last out say "bumped early, inside" but after watching the race, I didn't see any significant bumping. He had a dream trip along the rail and seemed to flatten out as they hit the top of the turn. Sure he finished 4th last out at this class, but it was only a 5 horse race. I'd guess he'll eat up some money, but I just don't see any positive angle (e.g. speed, good press punch, solid close, etc.) that would make him any better than the rest of the field - namely the :3:.

As for :1:, the trainer is 0/14 in the last 5 years with layoffs > 180 days. Ran nearly last all the way around the track last time out at this class. Slow workouts off the layoff and turned 5 this year, sporting a 13-1-1-3 record. Can't see how he does it.


In sum, I'd go with :3: :6: :5:, but knowing that the :3: will be a bear (and the likely winner). :5: is 12/1 ML, so maybe there's some value with him there in the exotics? Not sure how much of a stand to take with him though, and the :3: will offer no value and :6: will be overbet, even if he does put in a good showing and upset :3:.

[Maverick58034]

Race 2:

Start of the pick 4, which draws me like a moth to a flame.

:1: is an interesting first time starter. Trainer stats are better than they seem - first time starters in maiden claiming in the last 3 years is 12% (3/34, 32% ITM). That number spikes to 24% at HAW, and 33% (2/6) with today's jockey. Other offspring of the mare have preferred routes much over sprints, and the workouts seem lackluster, although consistent.

:2: have to hope the blinkers help. Trainer stats are fairly decent with adding blinkers on, but flopped hard as the favorite last out.

Not sure if the trainer switch on the :4: will be enough, although she did post a decent workout (3F in 36 B 1/12).

:5: and :7: just don't have it together, combining for a 32-0-2-5 record. No indication of any improvement from either, except that both have been working out decently well.

:6: is the ML favorite - I guess they think 16th time is the charm. Definitely didn't like the route and now goes back to sprinting. I like that Sukie stays on, but I'm very skeptical of this horse winning - particularly at lowerish odds.

So I'm going to go out on a bit of a limb and take a shot with the :1:. Incredibly weak field, and will hopefully be a decent price (4-1 ML but I could see him going off longer, given the poor trainer stats shown). I think it's fairly "open" outside of the :1:, though, and not sure how else to tackle it.

[illinoisbred]

You're right about the 2nd's field-incredibly weak. A better career choice would be pulling carriages up and down Michigan Ave.. Even then many passengers may ask(particularily of the 7) can't she go a little faster? Also, I think Williamson hit with a 1ster last week.

In the 1st I actually like the #2 somewhat. His pace figures are a little soft but he's primed for another forward move-if he has one. Fourth race in 39 days -would have liked a little more time into today's race but thats Kirby and how he operates.

[Maverick58034]

Race 3:

:1: and :1a: are the 7-5 ML favorites, but I have to say, I find them beatable. The :1: ran well last time out, and but for a bit of a troubled start he might have won the race. Still, at the end of the day, he leaves a 19% barn to an 8% barn, and is going up from CLM5000N3L to CLM10000N3L today. Last trainer didn't think the horse could do it at 10000, and the horse indeed ran 4th at that level. Also loses Thorton but picks up Karlsson (28%), but Jockey/Trainer are only 1 for 6 (17%). :1a: is interesting in that he ran well his last two races, which were at today's class, and is now making his 3rd start off the layoff. Winner of last race was a sharp horse who won an ALW26000N1X last out, posting a 77 BSF. My concerns, though, are that this horse is 34-2-9-5 lifetime - likely the product of a dirt sprint closer, and the trainer actually reclaimed this horse, and is a combined 0-for-27 with the horse. 28th time is a charm? I'll play against at 7/5 ML.

I think the race goes to :4:, who is 3rd off the layoff and dropping down out of allowance company. I was concerned at first about there being too much speed/early pace (:2::3::4::5::6: all seem to want the lead or be near the lead), but the :4: actually pressed last race and had a good push around the turn while 3 wide against allowance company. Great jockey/trainer combo (38%) and I think he takes a step forward today and cracks over 70BSF as he has in the past.

I think :2: will have class problems and at the rail might not get a great trip, considering he likes to press. Not impossible, I just don't think as likely.

:3::5::6: all seem to want and need the lead, although :5: was able to cede the lead last time out and regain it before the end (although that was on a route). :5: regressed badly last out after the trainer's first claim, and it was against today's class, so I'm hedging against him putting up another 70 BSF. :6: has been super sharp lately, but he has speed to his inside and I'm not sure if he'll be able to grab the lead and fend off the crowd as they turn into the stretch. :3: seems destined for a minor award, but did improve well last time which was his third off a layoff, so could take another step forward.

So here, I'm going with the :4: at what I hope will be an overlay.

[Maverick58034]

You're right about the 2nd's field-incredibly weak. A better career choice would be pulling carriages up and down Michigan Ave.. Even then many passengers may ask(particularily of the 7) can't she go a little faster? Also, I think Williamson hit with a 1ster last week.

In the 1st I actually like the #2 somewhat. His pace figures are a little soft but he's primed for another forward move-if he has one. Fourth race in 39 days -would have liked a little more time into today's race but thats Kirby and how he operates.

Hahaha exactly. And yes, on 3/30/10 Williamson hit with Ain't No Saint, a first time starter in MSW with Wade as the jockey @ 10.90-1.

You very well may be right about the :2: in race 1 - for some reason he makes me uneasy, because he seems fit enough but I could see him just running evenly. He regressed after the maiden win, but not that much (only 6 BSF), then took a step forward (9 BSF) in his next out, although he did drop from 17500 to 10000 then too. If he's able to take another step forward today, without the added class drop, then he could be right there.

[illinoisbred]

I also looked at the 4 in the 3rd. Trainer has never been hotter. Horses Hawthorne efforts since 11/25-pretty solid. I see a potential slight move forward.

[Maverick58034]

Race 4:

:2: Looks to be the speed, and has held before at 1 1/16 M (12-2-3-5 record at distance). He has generally been racing lower (CLM 4000 N1Y), but did a pretty good job against CLM 10000 last out. Have to wonder how much the off track helped/hurt him.

:3: is an interesting reclaim, and I would have thought he would have run better last time out. Looking back at Manley's handling of the horse, the horse has struggled in first races back off of layoffs (56, 34, 51 BSFs) but then took steps forward in their next out (64, 68, 60), so I'd expect improvement today. 8-0-2-2 Hawthorne and 8-0-1-3 distance record scare me some, but Cosme comes back to ride and has ridden the horse well in the past (64, 64, 62 BSFs).

:4: is taking a hike in class, but has done almost everything right so far, and Thorton gets back in the irons. BSFs have been steady and horse likes the track and the distance. I'd assume he'll stalk the :2:, but not sure because of how Thorton rode the horse @ HAW last time out.

:5: looks like he's out of form, and no Sukie today. This is a pretty sharp bunch, so I'm discounting the :5:, who looks like he needs to go back to CLM 8000. Great HAW and DIST records, though.

:6: plummeted last out from allowance company to CLM 4000 N1Y, and was barely able to snag the win. (took the lead but gave up 2 lengths in the stretch). Now that he's going back up in class, I'm hesitant to think he'll do as well today. 15-1-3-2 HAW record isn't appealing, either.


So here, I'm going to go with :2::3::4: in multirace tickets - not sure who I'd give the nod to specifically, as odds will vary. I'll probably even use :5::6: on some multirace saver tickets.

[illinoisbred]

Interesting thing about the 5 in the fourth- when he was running well last fall he took a series of shortened or false strides in the stretch-almost looked like he temporarily forgot how to run-oh well he is an 8 yr. old.

[Maverick58034]

Race 5:

:2: surely will want the lead, but he's coming off the layoff and Manley isn't the sharpest in that department. Horse is also shortening up, and while he has had success in that area, I don't think he'll be able to hold the lead today in a fairly tough field, particularly when he probably won't be at his best.

:1: is taking a hike in class and loses Karlsson. Not sure if the CLM 5000 N3L win on the slop will translate into an ALW 5000s win on fast track. I'll take a stand against.

:3: looks dangerous in my book. 3rd off the layoff, Pitty stays on (and has had great success with the horse), and moves from CLM 14000 open to ALW 5000s. Has done well at HAW and the DIST. First place finisher last out came back to win a CLM 14000 with a 75 BSF, and second last out came back to finish fourth in that same race, posting a 71 BSF. Fourth place finisher ran 7th in that race with a 49 BSF.

Can't say I love :4:'s last race, but he was wide and scored at the CLM 10000 level 3 back. Karlsson stays on and should get a better trip today. I think he ends up with a minor award, but with the right trip and if he returns to his prior form, it's not impossible that he sneaks the win.

:5: is the one that nailed :4: last out, and :5: had an even tougher trip. Here again, his BSFs are on the lower side (two 55s in a row), but is 3rd off the layoff and should improve at least some. Not a ton of knocks against, other than that he's tried ALW 5000s many times before and failed each time.

:6: seems pretty dangerous - big closer and should be able to move over, given the expected pace of the race. Groth stays on, and has won 2 of 3 on the horse. Horse has improved each race this year (24, 44, 66 BSFs with only one class drop between 24 and 44). I think he's a big threat to run them down late, assuming the pace is sharp.

So here, I'm going with :3::6: at what I think will be a good price.

[Maverick58034]

In Race 2, I might have been too quick to throw :5: out. He actually has some upside - good workouts and looks to be the most speed in the race, and gets a great (28%) jockey today. So I'm tabbing him as a longshot with a chance.

[illinoisbred]

Its been difficult getting much of a price here all meet. Good call in the 2nd-we both were right in the 3rd-paltry price though. The 2 in the 1st could have used a little more time off since his last race-he had nothing.

[Maverick58034]

Its been difficult getting much of a price here all meet. Good call in the 2nd-we both were right in the 3rd-paltry price though. The 2 in the 1st could have used a little more time off since his last race-he had nothing.

Agree entirely.