Eskendereya 3/5 In Derby ?

[redshift1]

I'm guessing Eskendereya heavy odds on favorite either 2/5 or 3/5 with Looking At Lucky at 5/2 and Sidney's Candy at 7/2.

[bisket]

boy i'd probably be jumping for joy at this :jump: because i don't think he's a lock by any stretch of the imagination.

[redshift1]

he's not lock but he sure looks good

[slew101]

Doubt he'll be that low. Maybe 3-2 to 2-1. In 20-horse fields, it's very difficult for a chalk to be under 2-1.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

I'm guessing Eskendereya heavy odds on favorite either 2/5 or 3/5 with Looking At Lucky at 5/2 and Sidney's Candy at 7/2.

Yeah...thats going to be real close to closing odds.

Hilarious post of the year nom

[Run Nicholas Run]

who's going to make this double tossout of a horse 3-5, the
same jerkoffs who steamed the indianapolis colts from -3 to -6
in the super bowl?! :lol: :D

[redshift1]

who's going to make this double tossout of a horse 3-5, the
same jerkoffs who steamed the indianapolis colts from -3 to -6
in the super bowl?! :lol: :D

Yes we should definitely hold those two wins against him.

[Hanover1]

Derby history shows me that its a tough race to handicap, much less win. Seems favorites fare poorly. Nobody is in this to get a tightener, yet some will surely get the tune-up of a lifetime...

[WinterTriangle]

CDX, the heavy inspection for drugs, the 20 horse field, and the distance, as well as all the stuff that happens during a race (like it did today with LAL and Awesome Act, etc.) is NOT a race at SA or AQ. None of these horses have even raced in a field of 15, let alone 20. :D

I love compiling my top 10 derby list as a hobby, but I don't even think about my wager until the day before, and then I don't place it until I see the post parade.

I doubt the stats on the fav winning the KY Derby is *lock* strong? I dunno, I have to look that up.

[Lasix67]

He sure looks like a freak to me. I say 2-1 will be the post time odds.

[cuzimahustler]

Im taking Sidney's Candy wire to wire depending on his post if he could wire on the pro ride which most here agree is not speed friendly... I think hes got a shot in the derby.

[horses4courses]

Yes, the horse did look awesome today.

Yes, he will be the favorite for the 2010 KY Derby.

You have to assume, though, that he will face a full field.

The Derby is littered with upsets over the years - I don't see that many takers at odds-on. He should be close to even money, though.

Remember,too, that there are still a few trials left.
An impressive winner in the AK Derby would have his supporters.

Historically, I doubt that he will be listed less than 7-5 on the M/L and that he remains at even money, or better, come post time.

[horses4courses]

I'm guessing Eskendereya heavy odds on favorite either 2/5 or 3/5 with Looking At Lucky at 5/2 and Sidney's Candy at 7/2.

Your line is too skinny.
Even if Big E is listed on M/L at even money, or less (which I doubt), the total percentage of all runners combined should be 130-140%.
The total for the 3 horses you list, at those odds, is around 120%.
That leaves around 17 other runners to quote at under 20% total.
We all complain of high takeout, but that's a bit too steep.

Good luck!

[BlueShoe]

Too soon to be making any kind of a line. My calendar says that there are 28 days untl the Derby, lots can happen before then. Lets wait and see what happens in the Blue Grass and Arky Derby, who is in, who is out, track condition, pace scenario, post positions, etc. April 30 or early on May 1 is the time to make decisions, not now.

[DJofSD]

I'm guessing Eskendereya heavy odds on favorite either 2/5 or 3/5 with Looking At Lucky at 5/2 and Sidney's Candy at 7/2.
Jeeze, even Empire Maker wasn't that short.

[the little guy]

Your line is too skinny.
Even if Big E is listed on M/L at even money, or less (which I doubt), the total percentage of all runners combined should be 130-140%.
The total for the 3 horses you list, at those odds, is around 120%.
That leaves around 17 other runners to quote at under 20% total.
We all complain of high takeout, but that's a bit too steep.

Good luck!


You beat me to it. I guess he figures the other 17 horses will be about 250:1 on average.

[Greyfox]

When I see who all 20 are, I will make my selections.
"Shape of the race" still holds importance in my book.
How the "surface" is playing that day, also has to be "figured" in.
The Ky Derby has produced surprises before.
Lest we forget the Alamo...oops, I mean Giacomo.

[redshift1]

You beat me to it. I guess he figures the other 17 horses will be about 250:1 on average.

Doing some research i see that in the last 90 years only 6 horses went off below 1.00 and in 1973 Secretariat was only 1.50 to 1 while Sham was 5/2.

[the little guy]

Doing some research i see that in the last 90 years only 6 horses went off below 1.00 and in 1973 Secretariat was only 1.50 to 1 while Sham was 5/2.


And, those weren't 20 horse fields.

[newtothegame]

You beat me to it. I guess he figures the other 17 horses will be about 250:1 on average.

Not saying it will even be close to this...BUT, and thats a big but...if it is...Think I will be taking the field :)

[pandy]

He won't be below 2-1 if Lookin At Lucky is in the race, this horse won 6 of his first 7 starts then had a brutal trip today and still came on late.

[pandy]

The more I think about it, the time was slow in the Wood and the had a very easy trip, plus the field was pretty bad. He could be an underlay in the Derby if the top horses all make it in.

[PhantomOnTour]

My Pool 1 future bet on Eskendereya at 22-1 (a whopping $10) is lookin' good now. Wonder how he, Rule, and Sidney's Candy will argue the pace in the Derby...good times a comin' ya'll!

[sandpit]

If Big Brown was 3-5 against that bunch he galloped home in front of, no way Eskey will be that short.

[JustRalph]

Andy, interested to hear what you think of the slow fractions in the Wood?

[the little guy]

Andy, interested to hear what you think of the slow fractions in the Wood?


I guess one could argue that they played into Eskendereya's hand, and perhaps that is true, but I'm not convinced he wouldn't be happier rating a bit off a faster pace, and if that's the case, he will likely run even better in KY....which means the race will be a complete laugher. However, if I'm wrong, that would perhaps be a reasonable achilles heel. The thing is, just because a horse has a perfect trip, doesn't exclude the possibility that he also ran a strong race. Thus, given his immense speed figure edge on his competition, he is holding a super strong hand for next two months.

Clearly the pace worked against Awesome Act. However, if you were going to make a legitimate case for him to beat Eskendereya in KY wouldn't you have wanted to see him run second and be at least a little closer to the winner?

It feels like the extension is that Lookin at Lucky feels like the most reasonably qualified closer to benefit from the likely fast pace of the Derby. However, he is going to need to run faster AND hope that Eskendereya doesn't show up and/or needs to be closer to the pace. Not impossible....but in my opinion not likely. Given a fair trip, Eskendereya is going to be enormously difficult to beat in four weeks.

[Robert Goren]

He is the logical horse so he will be the favorite. With 20 horses and lot of "dumb" money, I am thinking 3-1, maybe even 7-2. JMO

[the little guy]

He is the logical horse so he will be the favorite. With 20 horses and lot of "dumb" money, I am thinking 3-1, maybe even 7-2. JMO


You're dreaming....not thinking.

8:5....2:1 at the most. It's a mismatch on paper.

[Robert Goren]

I actually like Setsuko. Of course that amazing late run maybe a Synthetic track thing. And I may change my mind tomorrow.

[Bettowin]

I guess one could argue that they played into Eskendereya's hand, and perhaps that is true, but I'm not convinced he wouldn't be happier rating a bit off a faster pace, and if that's the case, he will likely run even better in KY....which means the race will be a complete laugher. However, if I'm wrong, that would perhaps be a reasonable achilles heel. The thing is, just because a horse has a perfect trip, doesn't exclude the possibility that he also ran a strong race. Thus, given his immense speed figure edge on his competition, he is holding a super strong hand for next two months.

Clearly the pace worked against Awesome Act. However, if you were going to make a legitimate case for him to beat Eskendereya in KY wouldn't you have wanted to see him run second and be at least a little closer to the winner?

It feels like the extension is that Lookin at Lucky feels like the most reasonably qualified closer to benefit from the likely fast pace of the Derby. However, he is going to need to run faster AND hope that Eskendereya doesn't show up and/or needs to be closer to the pace. Not impossible....but in my opinion not likely. Given a fair trip, Eskendereya is going to be enormously difficult to beat in four weeks.


Didn't Awesome Act lose a shoe and was not asked after that?

[InsideThePylons-MW]

You're dreaming....not thinking.

8:5....2:1 at the most. It's a mismatch on paper.

I would love to make a gigantic bet on 3-1 or over vs 8-5 or under

I could be wrong but that's why they call it gambling on an opinion.

[redshift1]

Didn't Awesome Act lose a shoe and was not asked after that?

Maybe one of the experts here can explain what happened with Awesome Act and Leparoux, to me it looked like the jockey was standing in the stirrups and pulling on the reins it was clearly noticeable.

[Bettowin]

Maybe one of the experts here can explain what happened with Awesome Act and Leparoux, to me it looked like the jockey was standing in the stirrups and pulling on the reins it was clearly noticeable.

I heard Awesome Act threw a shoe out of the gate and JL knew it and didn't run him at all. Makes sense to me when watching the race again.

[redshift1]

I heard Awesome Act threw a shoe out of the gate and JL knew it and didn't run him at all. Makes sense to me when watching the race again.

That's what the Blood-Stock's reporting I was thinking when Leparoux finally let's him go he going to take off.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Watching the race it looked like Eskendereya was held back from running into a slow pace.If he's too headstrong in the derby it could definitely work against him.But as "the little guy said there is nothing to penalize a horse for if his running style sets him up for a perfect trip.


Winter Triangle can correct me on this but isn't a Giant's Causeway horse bred to run for distance?Mom is Aldebaran Light.Grandsires Storm Cat,Seattle Slew.Had a 385 on the distance today.

Looking at the colt after the race I was surprised by how big he is as a teenager.He's already filled out and has the leg spread of a turf horse.Big,long,rangy boy.

Short field and all I was impressed today.He had a little quirkiness in the stretch but nothing earth shattering.

[jonnielu]

Derby history shows me that its a tough race to handicap, much less win. Seems favorites fare poorly. Nobody is in this to get a tightener, yet some will surely get the tune-up of a lifetime...

Nothing wrong with the multiple winner going in, but no horse for this year is terribly strong on PP credentials. Then the big question on Derby day is which has the ability to step out the 10f in winning fashion, and be able to do it on the first Saturday in May too.

Certainly, Eskendereya has shown the style that will allow for picking up the distance without problem. But, you've got to look at what some of the recent losers may have learned from their mistakes at 9f.

jdl

[Tom]

MY contenders will start at 15-1.
Anything under that and I am not interested this yeaer.
I do not like Esky or the Candy horse and LAL seems to look for trouble.
I might tear up tickets, but those three are throw outs for me.

[jballscalls]

MY contenders will start at 15-1.
Anything under that and I am not interested this yeaer.
I do not like Esky or the Candy horse and LAL seems to look for trouble.
I might tear up tickets, but those three are throw outs for me.

Dude you had Icebox, you can be wrong quite a few more times and still be in the black!! in the derby it's worth taking a big shot. Mike Chamberlain got the exacta last year just cause his birthday falls on august 16, 8-16

[the little guy]

Didn't Awesome Act lose a shoe and was not asked after that?


Did you watch the race?

Horses lose shoes all the time.

[the little guy]

But as "the little guy said there is nothing to penalize a horse for if his running style sets him up for a perfect trip.





Actually, that's not what I said.

[the little guy]

I would love to make a gigantic bet on 3-1 or over vs 8-5 or under

I could be wrong but that's why they call it gambling on an opinion.

I didn't say under 8:5.

[FantasticDan]

In the broadcasts leading up to the Derby, I'm looking forward to hearing about 47 variations in the pronunciation of Eskendereya.. :rolleyes:

[Charlie D]

I guess one could argue that they played into Eskendereya's hand, and perhaps that is true, but I'm not convinced he wouldn't be happier rating a bit off a faster pace, and if that's the case, he will likely run even better in KY....which means the race will be a complete laugher. However, if I'm wrong, that would perhaps be a reasonable achilles heel. The thing is, just because a horse has a perfect trip, doesn't exclude the possibility that he also ran a strong race. Thus, given his immense speed figure edge on his competition, he is holding a super strong hand for next two months.

Clearly the pace worked against Awesome Act. However, if you were going to make a legitimate case for him to beat Eskendereya in KY wouldn't you have wanted to see him run second and be at least a little closer to the winner?

It feels like the extension is that Lookin at Lucky feels like the most reasonably qualified closer to benefit from the likely fast pace of the Derby. However, he is going to need to run faster AND hope that Eskendereya doesn't show up and/or needs to be closer to the pace. Not impossible....but in my opinion not likely. Given a fair trip, Eskendereya is going to be enormously difficult to beat in four weeks.


Wood is throw race TLG imho and do want to bet Eskendereya at 7/4 as i'll put you a a couple of bucks on :)

[horses4courses]

There is no value betting a horse at under 2-1 with close to 4 weeks left.
You lose your money if the horse gets hurt - better to wait for race day.

That being said, those of you who think you will see 3-1, or better, on
Big E are high on something.

That's not going to happen, unless some big injury rumor circulates close to race day. Very unlikely.

All things being equal, Eskendreya will be a short priced favorite.
With a full field facing him, he's not my idea of a play, except maybe in the exotics, hooked-up with some decent prices.

Good luck!

[Trotman]

I've got Eskendereya a 105 off the Wood, pace of race - 6
with the days track variant - 19. In the Santa Anita Derby
I have Sidney's Candy a 106,pace of race -5 and a track
variant - 11. In the Illinois Derby I have American Lion a
108, pace of race - 1 with a track variant -29. I will be charting Churchill each day when they open to see how the track is playing leading up to the Derby. IMO way too early to be setting a line on any.

[bisket]

lion may be a horse to consider in exotics. the winner of the illini derby gets overlooked every year, but usually hits the exotics derby day. he's got the stamina.
i truly believe hawthorne could have been the track drosselmeyer earned the purse money to be in the derby.

[the little guy]

lion may be a horse to consider in exotics. the winner of the illini derby gets overlooked every year, but usually hits the exotics derby day. he's got the stamina.
i truly believe hawthorne could have been the track drosselmeyer earned the purse money to be in the derby.


You must be disappointed you didn't get a chance to bet Nicky Boy in the Wood.

[Valuist]

Horses who win on SLOW pace wire jobs/near the lead in slow paced final preps are almost always notorious underlays at CD. Even very good horses, like Point Given, Indian Charlie, Summer Squall and Chief's Crown are no exception. There's been some very useable horses, including several longshots, who closed into slow paced final prep races: Street Sense, Giacomo (he ran 4th at SA as speed ran 1-2-3 around the track), Real Quiet, Thunder Gulch, Tejano Run, and Unbridled to name a few.

IMO, Lookin at Lucky has had to overcome some obstacles in his last 2 races, and got it done in the Rebel. Eskendereya has looked great but under the circumstances, its not shocking. Of the longshots, Awesome Act had some very difficult circumstances to overcome in the Wood. Sidney's Candy and American Lion are total dead money at CD, IMO.

[bisket]

You must be disappointed you didn't get a chance to bet Nicky Boy in the Wood.
if your refering to ice box. the wood wouldn't have been the right spot for him seeing what was in that race. i like him for the derby. if he gets things straightened out heading into the first turn he's your winner. if not he'll come along late and get a share.

[PaceAdvantage]

if your refering to ice box. the wood wouldn't have been the right spot for him seeing what was in that race. i like him for the derby. if he gets things straightened out heading into the first turn he's your winner. if not he'll come along late and get a share.Wow.

[bisket]

its hard to say off of one race like the fla derby, but ice box may just be the cream of this crop. if he doesn't have to use one of his 23 second 1/4's overcoming the second he spots the field stumbling around going into the first turn every race. i think he may have some tactical speed to get position. he ran two 23 second 1/4 's in the fla derby (the second and third 1/4's), and still ran 12's the rest of the race. tom your my hero ;) everyone else is slobbering over esky. i'm slobbering over ice box!!! and it looks as if i'm gonna get some odds on him. his race took place two weeks ago, and everyone has already forgotten about him.

[overthehill]

i dont see how the horse has any chance at even flirting with even money let alone odds on. The horses overall record is ok but nothing special. I believe that wood came up exceptionally soft as awesome figured to bounce and there wasnt anything in the race besides E. So the horse won but it wasnt a sparkling race and beat nothing. This is the kind of favorite that would make me bet the race as i think its so beatable.

[keithw84]

Post-time odds on the favorite for the last 6 KDs:

2004 - Smarty Jones: 4-1
2005 - Bellamy Road: 13-5
2006 - Brother Derek: 3-1
2007 - Street Sense: 9-2
2008 - Big Brown: 12-5
2009 - Friesan Fire: 7-2

My guess is Eskendereya goes off at around 3-1.

[PaceAdvantage]

Didn't Awesome Act lose a shoe and was not asked after that?What are the chances JL had any inkling that AA threw a shoe in the first place?

[the little guy]

What are the chances JL had any inkling that AA threw a shoe in the first place?


About the same as the chances it affected his performance.

Zero.

[Canadian]

Post-time odds on the favorite for the last 6 KDs:

2004 - Smarty Jones: 4-1
2005 - Bellamy Road: 13-5
2006 - Brother Derek: 3-1
2007 - Street Sense: 9-2
2008 - Big Brown: 12-5
2009 - Friesan Fire: 7-2

My guess is Eskendereya goes off at around 3-1.


And also... after lasters huge upset, I'd think outsiders will take more money then usual.... JMO.

[Cratos]

Doing some research i see that in the last 90 years only 6 horses went off below 1.00 and in 1973 Secretariat was only 1.50 to 1 while Sham was 5/2.

That was because he had lost his previous race, the Wood to his stable mate, Angle Light. Also there was considerable doubt among some very good handicappers at the time about Big Red getting the mile and quarter distance.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

I didn't say under 8:5.

I know. But you said 8/5 so I was giving you all the under numbers just in case all the smart money makes him less.

[the little guy]

I know. But you said 8/5 so I was giving you all the under numbers just in case all the smart money makes him less.


No, I said 8:5 to 2:1.

[redshift1]

That was because he had lost his previous race, the Wood to his stable mate, Angle Light. Also there was considerable doubt among some very good handicappers at the time about Big Red getting the mile and quarter distance.

Yes I remember the same thing being said of Seattle Slew.

[Cratos]

I still believe either Eskendereya or Looking At Lucky will get the roses this year. However Sidney's Candy should be in the conversation.

[redshift1]

Post-time odds on the favorite for the last 6 KDs:

2004 - Smarty Jones: 4-1
2005 - Bellamy Road: 13-5
2006 - Brother Derek: 3-1
2007 - Street Sense: 9-2
2008 - Big Brown: 12-5
2009 - Friesan Fire: 7-2

My guess is Eskendereya goes off at around 3-1.

Not a chance, off two hand ridden open length wins. As betting odds go 3-1 would probably be a good bet but you're not going to get it.

If he has well publicized health or physical issues then maybe.

[Robert Goren]

With 20 starters there are two things for sure 1. There will not be a slow pace. There will be at least a couple long shot go for the lead. 2. There will not be a horse going off at less than 2-1 unless it is some sort of 3 or 4 horse entry. The math of all those horses getting 1-2 % of the money will not allow it.

[the little guy]

With 20 starters there are two things for sure 1. There will not be a slow pace. There will be at least a couple long shot go for the lead. 2. There will not be a horse going off at less than 2-1 unless it is some sort of 3 or 4 horse entry. The math of all those horses getting 1-2 % of the money will not allow it.



I'll lay you 100:1 if I win if Eskendereya is less than 2:1.....and you win if there is even a two horse entry.

[Robert Goren]

I put up the 1, you put the 100.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

No, I said 8:5 to 2:1.

You said 8/5...2/1 at the most.

OK...I'll just come out and say it....the way it stands as of today....anybody that thinks he will go off at 8/5 is delusional.

He's not a classic overbet public horse....public can't pronounce his name....public can't say "I like Pletcher".....public has very little recognition of Velasquez....Owned by a controversial Egyptian....etc.

20 horses and the worst horse in race will be 50-1 at most (MYB last year example). Longshots will be bet more because he won last year. Plenty of live contenders this year. 2nd choice is a high profile horse with high profile connections, recognizable on all aspects.

He's definitely not going to be the focus of whale betting.....Pletcher's a bagel in the Derby....The Wood was almost like a pre-arranged workout for the Derby....I've talked to 4 guys who concentrate on big races because they can bet huge....

One guy is a diehard east-coaster who will bet chalk if he likes it (he bet over 6 figures on Big Brown in KD) and he won't touch him....He won't bet on Pletcher until he shows he can win....He said the horse hasn't been roughed up at all...his numbers aren't standout-ish.

The other 3 guys all are against betting on him too.....One of them loves the Sunland winner and will use Eskendereya underneath only. One of the other guys said that this Derby offers the most logical price chances he has seen in a long time and wouldn't bet on Eskendereya with counterfeit money.

If Eskendereya was undefeated, won the BC juvenile, was trained by Bob Baffert, ridden by Mike Smith and owned by Bobby Flay.....then Yes, he could go off at 8/5.

Looking at this from a common sense perspective and taking into account everything I know while being unbiased because I really don't have any particular horse or area conflicts, the only possible way he will be 8/5 is if Zayat decides to bet 5-10 million on him. I just can't see that happening.

[the little guy]

I put up the 1, you put the 100.


Why not your $10K to my million?



( there are no entries in the Derby ).

[RXB]

Fusaichi Pegasus was a highly hyped horse right from the yearling sale ($4 million) onward and was on a win streak. He went off at 2/1.

While the Derby does attract a lot of casual money, it also attracts a lot of serious money and I'm pretty sure that a significant amount of that serious money will want no part of a presser/chaser that has yet to face a pace faster than the N1X par.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Actually, that's not what I said.

OK.Both of our comments were complimentary toward the horse.If were going to split hairs about what they mean and/or it is not a verbatim quote,OK,fair enough,didn't mean to invade your turf.Little overkill I think.

[michiken]

The biggest on the 1st Saturday in may will be:

Can Eskendereya can escape the Pletcher 0-fer curse?

[Relwob Owner]

The biggest on the 1st Saturday in may will be:

Can Eskendereya can escape the Pletcher 0-fer curse?


Nice plot lines so far...Pletcher Curse, controversial owner, LAL drama with Gomez, Baffert.....should be cool

[Kimsus]

I'm guessing Eskendereya heavy odds on favorite either 2/5 or 3/5 with Looking At Lucky at 5/2 and Sidney's Candy at 7/2.

Kimsus :lol: (laughs)

[SMOO]

If he wins he will pay 5.80

:cool:

[Robert Goren]

Why not your $10K to my million?



( there are no entries in the Derby ). because I don't have 10k, but how about $10 to your $1000. If you win, I send you the $10, If I win, give $1,000 to Jay Trotter for one his contest.

[strapper]

I see Eskendereya about 7/5. Glad I caught him in the Future Pool at 22-1 earlier. But with a full field on the 1st Sat n May nothing is a cinch.

[the little guy]

because I don't have 10k, but how about $10 to your $1000. If you win, I send you the $10, If I win, give $1,000 to Jay Trotter for one his contest.


With all due respect, I am trying to explain that I am teasing you, as there is zero chance that YOU can win....because they do not allow coupled entries in the Derby.

[Robert Goren]

With all due respect, I am trying to explain that I am teasing you, as there is zero chance that YOU can win....because they do not allow coupled entries in the Derby. I am sorry. I thought you were talking about the under 2-1, not the entries. My bad.:blush:

[Marshall Bennett]

I can't see anything less than 5-2 with a 20 horse field . I suppose it could happen , but I certainly wouldn't bet it .

Btw , Durkin needs to get the pronunciation correct before his derby call . It's not Eskendria . Same is the case with about half the host/analyst over at TVG .
If you're going to be a professional of the game , get it right .

[kid4rilla]

I like the Kid's pool 2 exacta wheel of:

Sidney's Candy
Odesseyus
American Lion

with

SC
Od
AL
LAL
Esk

Too much left to call the favorite. All this other noise might let the Fla Derby winner go off at a good price, like the year Monarchos won at a nice price (13:1?)

[NTamm1215]

I can't see anything less than 5-2 with a 20 horse field . I suppose it could happen , but I certainly wouldn't bet it .

Btw , Durkin needs to get the pronunciation correct before his derby call . It's not Eskendria . Same is the case with about half the host/analyst over at TVG .
If you're going to be a professional of the game , get it right .

http://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/stories/Wood2010FunFacts.shtml

NT

[FantasticDan]

http://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/stories/Wood2010FunFacts.shtml

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Marshall Bennett]

Well , thats not the proper pronunciation of the Egyptian city Alexandria in arabic , I know that for a fact because I happened to have lived there .
I suppose the owner can call him anything he wants , but its not right , that is if he's refering to that city .

[gm10]

I'm guessing Eskendereya heavy odds on favorite either 2/5 or 3/5 with Looking At Lucky at 5/2 and Sidney's Candy at 7/2.

I hope so, I have a heavy bet on @ 33/1 which I want to lay off ... but I wouldn't rule our Rule and Lookin At Lucky.

[PaceAdvantage]

Well , thats not the proper pronunciation of the Egyptian city Alexandria in arabic , I know that for a fact because I happened to have lived there .
I suppose the owner can call him anything he wants , but its not right , that is if he's refering to that city .Ahhh...the plot thickens!

[tag]

Big Brown, off two equally impressive preps (he dominated the florida derby from the 11 post), went off at 2.4 -1

cant see big E going off any lower than that given pletchers record and the long shot winning last year.

[DJofSD]

So the residents pronounce it differently. Same difference as, say, Paris, France. We pronounce it "pair-is" while I believe the Parisans are more likely to say "Par-ee".

[Marshall Bennett]

So the residents pronounce it differently. Same difference as, say, Paris, France. We pronounce it "pair-is" while I believe the Parisans are more likely to say "Par-ee".
If that were the case the horse's name would be Alexandria . It's really no big deal , I'm glad he's as good as he is and hope he runs lights out . I only find it odd that his name is from the arabic "El-Eskendereya " which is the exact pronunciation of Alexandria in arabic , but chooses to pronounce it Eskendria or whatever else .

[FenceBored]

Ahhh...the plot thickens!

The "how do you pronounce it" thing reminds me of this.

http://gotolouisvillestore.com/images/products/detail/LouCapRed.jpg

[Market Mover]

I believe most of your analysis here is very legit. The name itself will lead to higher odds on this horse. Forget that he's a strapping chestnut resembling Big Red himself...he's just not going to get played to 8-5 or odds-on like some people think...

And Zayat does not have 5-10 million to drop on this guy...he's still paying his loans..

For those who like the Big E, ask yourself where he's going to be with a :22 and 4 or :23 and 2 pace in front of him...and if he's rank, then consult Point Given's derby all over again...

[FantasticDan]

If that were the case the horse's name would be Alexandria . It's really no big deal , I'm glad he's as good as he is and hope he runs lights out . I only find it odd that his name is from the arabic "El-Eskendereya " which is the exact pronunciation of Alexandria in arabic , but chooses to pronounce it Eskendria or whatever else .
The actual arabic spelling is Al Iskandariyah. So I guess Eskendereya is a variation much like proper english words are purposely distorted for horse names.

[WinterTriangle]

I like the Kid's pool 2 exacta wheel of:

Sidney's Candy
Odesseyus
American Lion

with

SC
Od
AL
LAL
Esk

Too much left to call the favorite. All this other noise might let the Fla Derby winner go off at a good price, like the year Monarchos won at a nice price (13:1?)

IMHO Odysseus will run out of the money.

does he have another race coming up? If not, I won't change my mind.

[NTamm1215]

I believe most of your analysis here is very legit. The name itself will lead to higher odds on this horse. Forget that he's a strapping chestnut resembling Big Red himself...he's just not going to get played to 8-5 or odds-on like some people think...

And Zayat does not have 5-10 million to drop on this guy...he's still paying his loans..

For those who like the Big E, ask yourself where he's going to be with a :22 and 4 or :23 and 2 pace in front of him...and if he's rank, then consult Point Given's derby all over again...

So what you're saying is that a horse who's been completely in hand and amazingly tractable through relatively moderate fractions in his last two starts is going to be rank through faster fractions?

If you need to be concerned about any horse being rank in this Derby, at least of horses who are going to be bet heavily, it's Lookin at Lucky who has a history of pulling and a trainer who believes he should "just be let go."

NT

[miesque]

IMHO Odysseus will run out of the money.

does he have another race coming up? If not, I won't change my mind.

Odysseus is running the Blue Grass at Keeneland this Saturday. That was a smart decision by the connections as he will benfit from the additional experience and the Poly should given him some additional bottom. He still may not be good enough but a decent effort at Keeneland could make him a candidate to round out the tri/super.

[Stevie Belmont]

Sidney's Candy is a very talented horse. He has what it takes to get it done. He is improving with each start. He has the right combination of speed and stamina.

Will he like dirt? I think this horse can run over anything...

He closed at 22/1 in Pool 3—I am happy I got in on that

[NTamm1215]

Sidney's Candy is a very talented horse. He has what it takes to get it done. He is improving with each start. He has the right combination of speed and stamina.

Will he like dirt? I think this horse can run over anything...

He closed at 22/1 in Pool 3—I am happy I got in on that

I think Sidney's Candy is a talented horse and is obviously getting good quickly but I can't come up with a plausible scenario where he can win the Derby. I think not getting the lead and getting dirt in his face is going to be the end of him.

NT

[eastie]

IMHO Odysseus will run out of the money.

does he have another race coming up? If not, I won't change my mind.


he does, but it doesn't really matter how he runs in the BlUE Grass. hopefully he won't win. maybe he'll be 3rd or 4th and I'll get 30-1 on him in the derby. Knowing that it won't change your mind about him makes me feel much better about his chances, since getting in the right lane at the toll booth is tough on you mentally. :p

[Sekrah]

:lol:


Geez.. Read the topic of this thread and started laughing and said to myself, "So these are the people whose money I take at the track?"

Holy cow, learn some history.. Only one horse in the past 10 years went off at less than 2-1 and that was Point Given at 9/5 (howd that work out). Point Given had a far more impressive record, far more media hype, and was facing a pretty weak crop. There's atleast 4 or 5 horses that will take serious money in this race.

Big Brown, Bellamy Road, Empire Maker, Fusiachi Pegasus all had records more impressive than Eskendereya and they were 2.4-1, 2.6-1, 2.5-1, 2.3-1. Esky will be in the same area. 70% chance 5/2, 20% chance 2-1, 10% 3-1.

[Sekrah]

Sidney's Candy is a very talented horse. He has what it takes to get it done. He is improving with each start. He has the right combination of speed and stamina.

Will he like dirt? I think this horse can run over anything...

He closed at 22/1 in Pool 3—I am happy I got in on that


Name the last pure E7/E8 front-runner who won the Derby? I got forms going back to 1993 and I can't find one. The closest you might find is Smarty Jones and Big Brown. But Smarty was more of an E/P 6 type that liked to stalk/track the leader. Out of his 6 pre-derby races, he only led once at the 1st call and that was a listed stakes race back at Philly Park, and had his nose in front 3 out of 6 times at the 2nd call. Big Brown had just 3 preps he kinda inherited the lead but it was clear he was more of a stalk/track type as well.

Never mind the fact the horse will have to make a major change in track surface when he goes to the Kentucky Derby sand where many California Poly types have crashed and burned ahead of him. Never mind the fact that Sidney's Candy's breeding has nothing for 1 1/4.

The vast majority (98%) of Derbys are won by stalkers and closers.. Sidney's Candy, a front-runner poly type who has very weak distance breeding is an easy toss.

[pandy]

I would have to agree, it's very tough to wire the Derby and personally I think the riders are more aggressive now than they were when Cordero (Spend A Buck) and Stevens (Winning Colors) pulled it off. Sidney has overcome the bias at Santa Anita, which means that he could love dirt which is more speed friendly, but he is not going to get loose on the lead setting a slow pace again.

[RXB]

Name the last pure E7/E8 front-runner who won the Derby? I got forms going back to 1993 and I can't find one. The closest you might find is Smarty Jones and Big Brown. But Smarty was more of an E/P 6 type that liked to stalk/track the leader. Out of his 6 pre-derby races, he only led once at the 1st call and that was a listed stakes race back at Philly Park, and had his nose in front 3 out of 6 times at the 2nd call. Big Brown had just 3 preps he kinda inherited the lead but it was clear he was more of a stalk/track type as well.

Never mind the fact the horse will have to make a major change in track surface when he goes to the Kentucky Derby sand where many California Poly types have crashed and burned ahead of him. Never mind the fact that Sidney's Candy's breeding has nothing for 1 1/4.

The vast majority (98%) of Derbys are won by stalkers and closers.. Sidney's Candy, a front-runner poly type who has very weak distance breeding is an easy toss.

I do recall that War Emblem was pretty much a confirmed frontrunner who wouldn't have been too high in the fastest 2f rating. Don't have the form so I can't say exactly where he ranked but I remember being surprised that he got such a soft lead when I was expecting a fairly typical Derby pace.

Sidney's Candy seems bred okay for 1 1/4 to me.

[the little guy]

:lol:


Geez.. Read the topic of this thread and started laughing and said to myself, "So these are the people whose money I take at the track?"




Am I the only one who stops reading after a line like this?

[Market Mover]

I do recall that War Emblem was pretty much a confirmed frontrunner who wouldn't have been too high in the fastest 2f rating. Don't have the form so I can't say exactly where he ranked but I remember being surprised that he got such a soft lead when I was expecting a fairly typical Derby pace.

Sidney's Candy seems bred okay for 1 1/4 to me.


Let's remember Candy Ride's time for a mile and a quarter with Julie Krone aboard...that was racehorse time!

[nijinski]

I would have to agree, it's very tough to wire the Derby and personally I think the riders are more aggressive now than they were when Cordero (Spend A Buck) and Stevens (Winning Colors) pulled it off. Sidney has overcome the bias at Santa Anita, which means that he could love dirt which is more speed friendly, but he is not going to get loose on the lead setting a slow pace again.

I respect your opinion but I was thinking exactly the opposite.

I thought the jocks who rode during Cordero and Stevens era were more agressive , lot's of drama as well.
Speakng of Stevens and Winning Colors , he had choice words for Pat Day and Stephens after the Preakness debacle.
How about Cordero and the Genune Risk mugging,

[Sekrah]

Am I the only one who stops reading after a line like this?

You probably wouldn't understand logic anyway so it's probably a good thing you stopped.

Someone starting a thread "Esky 3/5 in Derby?" is a joke. It's something a 18 year old kid with absolutely no horse racing knowledge would make as he prepares for his first Derby. It deserves ridicule as a response because it's outrageously absurd.

If you don't like it, there's the corner. Go pout over there.

[Sekrah]

I do recall that War Emblem was pretty much a confirmed frontrunner who wouldn't have been too high in the fastest 2f rating. Don't have the form so I can't say exactly where he ranked but I remember being surprised that he got such a soft lead when I was expecting a fairly typical Derby pace.


Doh, you got me there.. War Emblem would definently be the closest thing to an E8 that has won the Derby the past 20+ years. But he wasn't coming in on synths, and he did get somewhat favorable fractions but it was still impressive. He was up against a pretty soft crop too.



Sidney's Candy seems bred okay for 1 1/4 to me.

Candy Ride is one of the few sires out there who has produced outstanding synthetic runners with the synth numbers exceeding the dirt/turf numbers of his offspring. Candy Ride horses have been going to dirt and coming up slow all over the place. They rarely stray from the Left Coast anymore. Also the preferred distances for those horses seems to be 7f-8f. Candy Ride's 1st crop are now 4 yos and they are showing alot of development (not so much from 2 to 3). I do not expect any more forward moves from Sidney's Candy. Not much more endurance out of the dam-sire Storm Cat either. What you see is what your gonna get, and what you see is a very good miler on the rubber.

Uninspiring pedigree for a 1 1/4 on dirt early in a 3 yo campaign

[Sekrah]

Let's remember Candy Ride's time for a mile and a quarter with Julie Krone aboard...that was racehorse time!

Candy Ride had that kind of endurance. His offspring hasn't shown much of it.

Bris AWD - 6.8f.
Thorograph - Less than 1M: 13.2, 1M & Over: 13.1

And like I said in the previous post Candy Ride's offspring has absolutely thrived on the synthetics and not so sharp on dirt/turf. 1 mile synthetic has been the winning formula for Candy Ride babies. Another negative on him is Joe Talamo may be the rider. I would have absolutely zero confidence betting this guy in a 20-horse field going at an oddball distance and on a track he's not that familiar with.

[RXB]

Candy Ride had that kind of endurance. His offspring hasn't shown much of it.

Bris AWD - 6.8f.
Thorograph - Less than 1M: 13.2, 1M & Over: 13.1

And like I said in the previous post Candy Ride's offspring has absolutely thrived on the synthetics and not so sharp on dirt/turf. 1 mile synthetic has been the winning formula for Candy Ride babies. Another negative on him is Joe Talamo may be the rider. I would have absolutely zero confidence betting this guy in a 20-horse field going at an oddball distance and on a track he's not that familiar with.

Careful with the Bris AWD at this stage as it is heavily influenced by young horses (i.e., shorter race distances) since he has only had two crops race so far.

Don't get me wrong, I don't like Sidney's Candy chances as a Derby horse, but there's enough stamina influence via the females in his pedigree to make me believe that he's okay for going 10 furlongs under suitable conditions. (I don't think he's going to get those conditions May 1 at CD.)

Certainly, laying off the pace is usually preferable to leading/pressing in the Derby. The X-factor this year is that the pace has been so slow in so many of the preps, it's at least possible that the trend might continue. But usually one or two horses go pretty quickly early.

I agree about Talamo. Huge source of underlays. He gets bet like a top jock in Cali but his win rate doesn't justify it.

[redshift1]

:lol:


Geez.. Read the topic of this thread and started laughing and said to myself, "So these are the people whose money I take at the track?"

Holy cow, learn some history.. Only one horse in the past 10 years went off at less than 2-1 and that was Point Given at 9/5 (howd that work out). Point Given had a far more impressive record, far more media hype, and was facing a pretty weak crop. There's atleast 4 or 5 horses that will take serious money in this race.

Big Brown, Bellamy Road, Empire Maker, Fusiachi Pegasus all had records more impressive than Eskendereya and they were 2.4-1, 2.6-1, 2.5-1, 2.3-1. Esky will be in the same area. 70% chance 5/2, 20% chance 2-1, 10% 3-1.


The term narcissism refers to the personality trait of egotism, which includes the set of character traits concerned with self-image ego. The terms narcissism, narcissistic, and narcissist are often used as pejoratives, denoting vanity, conceit, egotism or simple selfishness. Applied to a social group, it is sometimes used to denote elitism or an indifference to the plight of others.

[Sekrah]

The term asinine applies to the person who believes this horse will go off at less than even money in 20-horse field.

The last horse to go off at 3-5 was Spectacular Bid in 1979 and that was a 10-horse field. And as for the the last to go off at less than even money was 4/5 in 1992 and Eskendereya's reputation and hype doesn't even amount to a zit on Arazi's ass.

[redshift1]

The term asinine applies to the person who believes this horse will go off at less than even money in 20-horse field.

The last horse to go off at 3-5 was Spectacular Bid in 1979 and that was a 10-horse field. And as for the the last to go off at less than even money was 4/5 in 1992 and Eskendereya's reputation and hype doesn't even amount to a zit on Arazi's ass.

Along with Narcissism include a penchant for didactic drudgery.

[Sekrah]

<yawn> <snore> <burp>

Atleast attempt to defend your stupidity. You're putting everyone to sleep.

[pandy]

Cordero did a lot of race riding even in regular races. I had forgotten about War Emblem. It's hard to believe that a horse could shake loose on an easy lead in a 20 horse field in the most famous race in the world but it has happened.

[eastie]

Along with Narcissism include a penchant for didactic drudgery.


You've been watching too many Howard Cosell clips.
Pedants would almost be amusing if they weren't so pathetic.