Pace Figures

[JimL]

It is a concern of mine that all my pace figures really reflect is a jockey rate job, especially in routes. It is my concern that a pace figure is only valid when a rank horse is the leader. Am I off base thinking this way? I hope so. JimL

[Larry Hamilton]

It's probably a combination of where the horse wants to be in the herd and where the jock wants to put him. Anyone with the DRF knows where the horse wants to be, so any change is probably brought on by the jock.

It usually brings trouble when the jock and horse aren't attempting to do it the horse's way. As an example, some time ago, Jerry Bailey claimed that he was going to help Cigar's pace. The next race he comes up against Siphon, a stone cold must lead hoss. Bailey helped Cigar, an EP hoss, keep up for most of the race. Siphon sucked the wind out of both of them and Dare and Go got the race. Which is my way of saying even a great jockey might be better off just ridin' instead of "helping"

[JimL]

Larry, thank you for the informative reply. I remember the Cigar race. The more I do these pace figs the more I understand why the raggies do not. JimL

[cj]

JimL,

Just my thoughts on the subject. I never look at pace figures by themselves. They are worthless trying to predict who will lead, stalk, etc. This is usually decided in the first 100-300 yards of the race. No figures can account for what happens in this part of the race.

I use pace figures in conjunction with final figures to gauge a horse's overall ability, period. Running style predictions are best gathered through positioning in previous races and knowing who else was in the field.

[Tom]

My best use of pace figures is to see what pace of race the horse can comfortably compete against against.
If and EP has run well against a "100" pace and won, and today, he faces at best a "97" pace, he can reserve energy and have more in the tank for the stretch run, being an EP.
I like to find horse that ran well at some point in the race against a pace significanlty faster than it will face today. Chances are, the fisih will look not so good and the odds will be helped. I love to find E horse that must lead and will have to spend more energy early today than normal.
Sunday, in the Swaps Stakes, During, who won and paid $18, had several nice things about him - final fig wise, he was on an improvment cycle, and figured to move ahead, but more importantly, he held a significant early pace (1st fraction) edge in terms of velocity numbers in HTR. He figured to have lots of energy left in the tank and he did just that - came on again in the stretch and won.