Wood Day

[cees with dees]

Nice card Saturday with some vulnerable huge chalk.
In the first, Wheelinndealin needed both starts off the long layoff and now draws the rail turning back with not much on board pacewise unless the bottom with blinkers finds more speed.
Price will be right and the prospect of saving ground may be all she needs to land a big piece.
In the second, Chain Mover has had gate trouble in every start. Ryerson had a runaway winner opening day and a huge form reversal at that and this is a barn that wins in bunches.
Boisterous is obvious and nice to see any Phipps runner.
Southern shippers this time of year always dangerous.
Friendly Wager is tough as nails and Cohen up won't hurt his chances. One of these three with Chain Mover being the best price.
In the third, it's kind of Obligingly's race to lose on ability and running style.
In the fourth Cajun Jet ran into a good one while making first go of it on a fast track. May even be a bit better price with the presence of Stormin Bolt who was visually better in debut than he actually was.
In the fifth, Gerard Loves Beer adds lasix off trainer change and long layoff. Worktab is good and need only beat homebred favorite Smokin Conrad to get it done.
In the sixth, the only horse I'm remotely interested in here is Fiddler's Zephyr.
Has probably been waiting for turf and like the fact that she hasn't been in a maiden claimer before the turf try.
Those with grass experience don't look like much to me.
In the 7th, I think Raynick's Jet is a really good horse and Asmussen will bring out his best.
Obviously Eightyfiveinafifty has ability but goofed off in last and one big win in a bad field isn't enough for me.
In the eighth, I really like Seniors Pride here. Likely to sit second to National Pride and the good thing is, no matter how slow the pace, I think Seniors Pride has the quickest gear of anything in here so if it's a sprint home, he'll win it.
The Wood is not the race it used to be and Eskendereya need only behave to take his nest step to the Derby.
In the 10th, I pray they scratch Digger here because Driven By Success will run these off their feet.
He is by far at his best when on the lead regardless of how fast he goes and Munnings to me is an absolute trip horse.. I know he has ability but I really believe if he has to sit second to a loose Driven By Success, he's never getting there.
In the finale, I'm interested to see if Eli's Coming takes to the turf.
He has beautiful speed and a perfect stride for turf.
I like the change to a patient rider as well.
Good luck to all.
Ben

[slew101]

I like Warrior's Reward in the Carter. They tried sending this guy long many times, but he's run his best at 6 and 7 furlongs.

Not liking much else. I bet Schoolyard Dreams in both Tampa outings, but just can't jump back on in this one. I don't think the extra distance will help him.

[cees with dees]

I just don't think it sets up for him. I definitely think he's a nice horse. Just not today. Good luck though.
Ben

[theguarantee]

Probably true on the set-up, I did use Warrior's Reward in my cheap late pk-3 though. 2/2,3,5/1. Trying to beat Esky with Awesome Act, and really like Tom Kitten in the last. Really good late stride, always seems to find trouble or a slow pace, but if it breaks right, should move past the rest late I think.

Didn't see a whole ton to bet, but if I get out of work in time I'll probably play a cheap pk-4. Basically put most of my serious money on Beautician at Keeneland. The pk-4 looks pretty straight forward for a guaranteed pool though. Good luck to all.

[GaryG]

I like Musket Man to run them down in the Carter. Munnings will be way overbet.

[judd]

good luck cees

[Maverick58034]

Nice analysis - definitely gave me some more things to look at.

Bay Shore (Race 7)

In the Bay Shore (Race 7) I'm taking a stab with :2: Raynick's Jet. I really liked his last race, and feel that he beat a quality horse in Cajun Jet (who I'm also playing earlier in the card). Eightyfiveinafifty (:1:) so far has only romped in a MSW, which so far has only produced two quality horses (Bojan, 5th in the MSW, dropped down to Maiden Claiming and romped with a 90 BSF; Avenging Spirit, 2nd in the MSW, came back to get 2nd with an 84 BSF in MSW company). Given how Eightyfiveinafifty was bet before, I would suspect fairly good odds for Raynick's Jet, who (hopefully) will take another step forward. The rest of the field looks interesting, but I can't see :1a: Castaneda wiring these guys, and I'm not sold yet on :4: Hurricane Ike, although I'll probably cover him in a multirace exotic.

Excelsior (Race 8)

For some reason, I can't get off of :4: Goldsville. I think his last race was pretty beastly - he rushed up to the lead (not surprising given his last running line), but then Dominguez let him settle back in a 3/4/5 bunch, and still had plenty of the tank to make a move around the turn. His last race was very "key": Second place finisher Half Metal Jacket came back to win OC50k with a 93 BSF, third place finisher The Roundhouse did the same but with a 96 BSF, fourth place finisher East End Tap came back to run second at Philly in an Allowance N2X, posting an 86 BSF, and even last place finisher Sawtooth Mountain ran an okay fourth in OC50k with an 82 BSF. My thought is that Goldsville will sit 3rd a combination of :6: National Pride, :3: Nite Light, and/or :1: Seniors Pride - so he will be able to be close but still have energy left for the stretch.

That being said, I think :6: National Pride is a threat to wire and would be my second choice. Understatement, who beat him last out, is a buzzsaw, and even that might be an understatement (pun intended). I could see him wiring if given a remotely soft pace, which is possible. :3: Nite Light is someone I'm not a big fan of, but will probably end up covering because I'm a scaredy cat.

Wood Memorial (Race 9)

I'm pretty torn about this race. :3: Eskendereya looks pretty darn tough and will be short, which might erase all value in the race. I'm attracted to the :2:, Awesome Act. Trainer Jeremy Noseda is no stranger to very high caliber horses, and it looks like he's done a great job with Awesome Act so far. I don't think the race sets up particularly well for him, but I still think he could take another step forward, which might be enough. I'm pretty wishy-washy on :4: Schoolyard Dreams and :5: Jackson Bend. Schoolyard Dreams last race was a catastrophe in that he wasn't able to win. Today Jackson Bend is third off a layoff, and it's not impossible he gets back to the 100 BSF territory, which he was at in October 2009. Given the circumstances, I'll probably only take a stab at Awesome Act, and even then only if the price is right.

Carter Handicap (Race 10)

Rationally or irrationally, I'm a big fan of :4: Musket Man. Another situation where I'm not sure how well the race really sets up for him, and he might need another race before he regains his top form. That being said, he looks fairly sharp and his last race was quality, has a good workout pattern and gets Dominguez in the irons. As another poster said in another thread, I too think Musket Man will "run them down." (Sorry for not being able to attribute the quote). I think it's fair to say that Musket Man and :5: Munnings are the classiest horses in the race. Munnings is the logical, and correspondingly overbet choice. Munnings' fast dirt record is impressive, and it looks to be a fast track today (not sure of specific conditions right now). No real knocks against Munnings other than a little inconsistency, a small layoffs, and slow works. He seems dangerous to bet against. I think :1: Digger has a sneaky chance in this one - it doesn't seem that anyone else, save for his stablemate :1a: Driven by Success, really wants the lead, although they won't be too far back. I don't think it's wholly unrealistic to think that Digger could wire here, even though it may not be the likeliest of scenarios.

So, in the Pick 4 starting in Race 7, my main ticket is:

:1::2::4: / :4::6: / :2::3: / :1::4::5: = $36.

I know it's a bit chalky, so I'm going to try to sprinkle in some value revolving around these selections. I'm still not done with that part - so I'll end it here.

Enjoy the races today everyone - it should be a lot of fun no matter what.

[theguarantee]

Great posts. I guess I'm a bit higher on Munnings than many here. I went three deep there but it wasn't a slight of Munnings at all. I love Digger but don't give him the chance most seem to...I think he's just a bit over his head though he will run hard.

For the pk-4 I'm probably going to do what everyone else does and start with Eightyfive and Raynick's. Tossing Nite Lite and either singling Seniors Pride or going two deep again with Goldsville. For pk-4 purposes have to use Esky and I'll pair with Awesome Act and hope for AA who I think has a big big chance. Schoolyard Dreams and JB give me slight pause but it's just hard to not feel safe with Esky and AA. Using the 2,3,5 to close it out and feel real good that the winner is in those three.

[cees with dees]

Believe me, I think Munnings is a super nice colt but when he was visually impressive on Belmont day last year, he was really aided by a gold rail and despite the fact he was off the pace, you could close that day as long as you saved ground.
It just looks to me here that Driven By Success is going to be conceded the lead and I think he's a murderer in that scenario.
We'll see in a few hours,
Good luck to everybody.
Ben

[cees with dees]

I'm going to take a little shot with Spa City Princess in the sixth.
With the race taken off the grass, this one should be in a perfect stalking position settling just off those rushing up inside.
Filly was able to get it done in second start stretching out that day off just one sprint for barn that races their stock into condition.
She should only improve and found a great spot in first try against winners.
Ben

[Tee]

:5: Pegasus Ena - Looks to improve in his second start with the addition of blinkers. Three 1/2 mile drills since debut including a bullet on Mar 27.

[theguarantee]

:6: / :4: , :11:

Also playing a cold pk-3

:6: / :2: / :1:

[Tee]

:5: Roaring Ghost - If she holds the form of her mdn win, I think she has a chance in here. Added distance should not be a problem, field might not be either.

:4: Fiddler's Zephyr - Had some trouble out of the gate last out along with the off racetrack. She very well could be looking at a better effort today.

[theguarantee]

Great call Cees.

[bisket]

5$ ex box
:3: :4:
2$ tri box
:2: :3: :4:
play against even money fav with issues

[Tee]

:4: Hurricane Ike - Will we see better moving to real dirt?

:2: Raynick's Jet - Nice race last out, but he's not in Kansas anymore. We'll find out soon if he's the real deal.

[bisket]

i thought i might have had a shot when fifty started with his head cocked for the first 2 furs, but the jock turned him loose and he proved worthy of the 3-5

[bisket]

:1: :4: 2$ ex box
maybe some cake on the :1: 's nose wait until post time to make that decision

[cees with dees]

I like the same box here hoping they line up like a harness race.
Good luck,

Ben

[judd]

(4) goldsville

[Tee]

:1: Seniors Pride - If he still has the stuff from his last two, I give him a shot today.

[WinterTriangle]

Pick 3 Race 9-10-11
2,3,4 w/1,4 w/ 1,11,6,5

[bisket]

5$ ex
:2: & :3: with :6:
:6: with :2: & :3:
20$ win :6:

[Tee]

Let's see what the jock change can do for :4: Schoolyard Dreams.

[cees with dees]

I am going to need Driven By Success for a really nice score.
I will even take Digger if necessary:).
\Ben

[bisket]

carnivore blew the turn not ready for prime time yet. he didn't do such a good job on the first turn either.
race 10
20$ win :2:

[Tee]

$$$ for da Bisket!!

[bisket]

that'll get me close to breaking even form the day.still have the 8&9 at santa anita yet though

[theguarantee]

Should have had that chalk fest pk-4 but got cute and singled Raynick's. Need Tom Kitten to bring home this pk-3 and make my day now.

[slew101]

I need Jara on the 1 as well. Have not had much luck with Fernando lately, but he used to ride the turf well first time around in NY.

Should have had that chalk fest pk-4 but got cute and singled Raynick's. Need Tom Kitten to bring home this pk-3 and make my day now.

[slew101]

Bizarre trip for the 1, or maybe I'm delusional with the foggy camera angles. Regardless, thank you Jara. That erased a bunch of bad bets earlier in the day.

I need Jara on the 1 as well. Have not had much luck with Fernando lately, but he used to ride the turf well first time around in NY.

[theguarantee]

Yeah, broke for the lead which I thought was possible from the 1 post, but an unexpected delight. Liked the trip until the final turn and then no clue what really happened with the camera angle. When they switched the angle it looked like the only question was if TK would pass on the left, slight hesitation but got it done, just how we drew it up. Nice hit.

And I'm pleasantly surprised at the payout, played it 2,3/2,3,5/1 as I stated, but was really thinking I'd need to beat Esky or get the 3 in the second leg to get better than 50. Will take it though.

[slew101]

Just a DD for me, but nice win bets the last two. I really liked the DD plays, so I should have had the Pick 3.

Yeah, broke for the lead which I thought was possible from the 1 post, but an unexpected delight. Liked the trip until the final turn and then no clue what really happened with the camera angle. When they switched the angle it looked like the only question was if TK would pass on the left, slight hesitation but got it done, just how we drew it up. Nice hit.

And I'm pleasantly surprised at the payout, played it 2,3/2,3,5/1 as I stated, but was really thinking I'd need to beat Esky or get the 3 in the second leg to get better than 50. Will take it though.

[WinterTriangle]

Nice call on Warriors, Slew.

Not using him cost me the Pick 3. Had all of it right except that one that you brilliantly got right. :ThmbUp:

[slew101]

Very lucky to win the head-bob.

Not using him cost me the Pick 3. Had all of it right except that one that you brilliantly got right. :ThmbUp:

[cees with dees]

It was a head bob but he deserved it.
Nice pick.
Ben

[WinterTriangle]

Ben, you sure had eightfiveinfifty well characterized. He was unfocussed today again. Lots of natural talent and speed, but he ain't "ripe" yet. :)

I'd let him mature, and do some more focus training, and bring him back later.

Of course, they will point him to the Preakness.:rolleyes:

[Grits]

So peculiar, this one. He came out of the gate, and ran the first two furlongs gawking at the infield. Strange, strange fella.:lol:

[WinterTriangle]

He came out of the gate, and ran the first two furlongs gawking at the infield. Strange, strange fella.:lol:

Well, it kinda makes me like him more----- once he matures. I like a *curious* horse. All the ones i know like that are very smart.

[bisket]

So peculiar, this one. He came out of the gate, and ran the first two furlongs gawking at the infield. Strange, strange fella.:lol:
i think he started on his left lead (the correct one) switched to his right, and then a few strides later switched back to his left. after all that nonsense he took off and dominated.

[Grits]

Don't really care what lead he was on, just noted it was hilarious. And when Durkin notes he's "looking at the infield". It becomes even more so.:lol:

This guy knows one speed--WIDE OPEN. If he's gonna continue that way, and one can assume he will, he needs to be looking where he's going. Which he did after he had his looksee to the left. Who knows, its Aqueduct, maybe there were seagulls in the infield, and he was curious.