Keeneland's 50 Cent Pick 3

[trying2win]

I was just reading about Keeneland's new 50 cent Pick 3 they will be introducing at their upcoming spring meet:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56188/keeneland-officials-optimistic-about-meet?source=rss

You have to scroll down the article's page a bit to read the info on this wager. What's your opinion on this 50 cent Pick 3 offering at Keeneland?


T2W

[thaskalos]

Because KEE features full fields, and is, IMO, a track where longshots do a lot better than is considered normal, a 50cent Pick-3 may not be such a bad idea...but I think we are getting into dangerous territory now. If you start reducing the price of even the relatively small-priced exotic wagers, then you run the risk of destroying the payoffs altogether.

Reducing the price of the superfecta bet was one thing - the super payoffs are very large due to the difficulty of the wager - but to do the same to smaller, easier exotics is not a good idea. Retama has 10cent trifectas for heavens sakes!!! It's getting ridiculous. The pick-3, and the trifecta payoffs are too small as they are.

[Leonard]

Because KEE features full fields, and is, IMO, a track where longshots do a lot better than is considered normal, a 50cent Pick-3 may not be such a bad idea...but I think we are getting into dangerous territory now. If you start reducing the price of even the relatively small-priced exotic wagers, then you run the risk of destroying the payoffs altogether.

Reducing the price of the superfecta bet was one thing - the super payoffs are very large due to the difficulty of the wager - but to do the same to smaller, easier exotics is not a good idea. Retama has 10cent trifectas for heavens sakes!!! It's getting ridiculous. The pick-3, and the trifecta payoffs are too small as they are.


It may cut into the bigger pick 3 payouts Keeneland has but it may also bring more money into the Pick 3 pools. Keeneland has enough money floating around, unlike Retama, that any pro's and con's from the experiment will be evident early on in the meet. If the average pick 3 payout goes down then they should discontinue it in the fall. If the average goes up it will be around a while.

I'll probably take a few 50 cent pick 3 flyers for the fun of it this meet -- it's a wager I usually stay away from because I suck at it.

[rrpic6]

Any wager that potentially keeps the IRS in the dark is AWESOME!:ThmbUp:

RR

[only11]

I was just reading about Keeneland's new 50 cent Pick 3 they will be introducing at their upcoming spring meet:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56188/keeneland-officials-optimistic-about-meet?source=rss

You have to scroll down the article's page a bit to read the info on this wager. What's your opinion on this 50 cent Pick 3 offering at Keeneland?


T2W
they .50 picks in the fall

[Leonard]

they .50 picks in the fall

"In addition to its usual attractions, Keeneland is making additional efforts to reach out to fans. Nicholson detailed new initiatives planned for the spring meeting, including a new 50 cent pick three wager and increased social media marketing efforts."

[horses4courses]

How could anyone dislike a lower base unit?

No matter how much you play, having the opportunity to stay under the
"signer" threshold, with multiple 50 cent plays, has to be a good thing.

Some will argue that lowering the minimum spoils the wager.
Let's the little guy in to take a slice out of the pool.
Nonsense.
Handle, imo, will not be adversely effected.

By all means, play your $2 PK-3.
If you want to try to avoid Uncle Sam, though, play a fifty cent ticket four times.

[thaskalos]

How could anyone dislike a lower base unit?

No matter how much you play, having the opportunity to stay under the
"signer" threshold, with multiple 50 cent plays, has to be a good thing.

Some will argue that lowering the minimum spoils the wager.
Let's the little guy in to take a slice out of the pool.
Nonsense.
Handle, imo, will not be adversely effected.

By all means, play your $2 PK-3.
If you want to try to avoid Uncle Sam, though, play a fifty cent ticket four times. I made the same exact argument years ago to support the 10 cent superfecta, but in the pick 3 the argument does not apply. Only a tiny percentage of pick 3s are signers.

What's next? 10 cent trifectas and pick 3s?

[horses4courses]

I made the same exact argument years ago to support the 10 cent superfecta, but in the pick 3 the argument does not apply. Only a tiny percentage of pick 3s are signers.

What's next? 10 cent trifectas and pick 3s?

Why not?

[thaskalos]

Why not? I don't know if you are putting me on or not. If you are serious, I want to ask you a question.

Why do trifectas pay more than perfectas? Because they are more difficult to hit, right? Why are they more difficult to hit? Because most people are reluctant to invest the money it takes to hit them. Do you agree? It takes more combinations to hit a trifecta than it does a perfecta. If the trifecta is reduced to 10 cents instead of $1, the bet will get very easy to hit, because the tiny investment needed will allow all the players to share in the payoff. The trifecta payoffs will drastically decline. Same thing applies to pick 3s.

Your argument about Uncle Sam applies only to high paying wagers like superfectas and pick 4s. Trifectas and pick 3s are still within the reach of the vast majority of the players, and they very rarely pay enough to get the tax man involved. They should be left alone.

If a horseplayer finds $1 trifectas and pick 3s out of his league, let him bet the exactas. If the player loses the value in the exotics, what else is left?

[Bill F]

By all means, play your $2 PK-3.
If you want to try to avoid Uncle Sam, though, play a fifty cent ticket four times.
This has always been the way that I've played Exotics if I thought that a $2 bet might pay over $600.

I would play $1 tickets on the same Pick 3 or Pick 4 combo multiple times, and used to avoid the taxman whenever the $2 payoff was under $1200.

However, now playing with Youbet, I've hit 3 or 4 such bets within the last year, and received W-2Gs each time. They tax them even though the $1 ticket might pay just over $300.

Just wanted to know if others can say for sure how other ADWs are handling these bets.

I know that I can still punch them out at the track, and cash them with no problem, but like most, I now much prefer playing at home.

Thanks for any insight, Bill

[thaskalos]

This has always been the way that I've played Exotics if I thought that a $2 bet might pay over $600.

I would play $1 tickets on the same Pick 3 or Pick 4 combo multiple times, and used to avoid the taxman whenever the $2 payoff was under $1200.

However, now playing with Youbet, I've hit 3 or 4 such bets within the last year, and received W-2Gs each time. They tax them even though the $1 ticket might pay just over $300.

Just wanted to know if others can say for sure how other ADWs are handling these bets.

I know that I can still punch them out at the track, and cash them with no problem, but like most, I now much prefer playing at home.

Thanks for any insight, Bill They tax you if the payoff is over 300-1 and the amount exceeds $600. If the payoff is less than 600-1, and you have it for $1 they don't tax you.

[Bill F]

They tax you if the payoff is over 300-1 and the amount exceeds $600. If the payoff is 500-1, and you have it for $1 they don't tax you.True if you have the 500-1 payoff for just $1.

Not true with Youbet if you play two $1 tickets with that 500-1 payoff....That was not always the case.

Are there ADWs that don't tax you with that play?

[jonnielu]

I was just reading about Keeneland's new 50 cent Pick 3 they will be introducing at their upcoming spring meet:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56188/keeneland-officials-optimistic-about-meet?source=rss

You have to scroll down the article's page a bit to read the info on this wager. What's your opinion on this 50 cent Pick 3 offering at Keeneland?


T2W

It is a good deal for bettors because it allows you to put more horses into the P3 which could cause more people winning. The P3 is wide open at KEE and the exclusive viewpoint of handicapping is the best way to lose it. More people winning is the answer to handle woes, the P3 at KEE is a great bet, but less then 3 horses per race on the ticket is just throwing out money, no matter the increment.

At .50, if you think about the horse more then 1 second you can throw it in, every race at KEE has 5 - 6 legitimate contenders in it.

jdl

[horses4courses]

I don't know if you are putting me on or not. If you are serious, I want to ask you a question.

Why do trifectas pay more than perfectas? Because they are more difficult to hit, right? Why are they more difficult to hit? Because most people are reluctant to invest the money it takes to hit them. Do you agree? It takes more combinations to hit a trifecta than it does a perfecta. If the trifecta is reduced to 10 cents instead of $1, the bet will get very easy to hit, because the tiny investment needed will allow all the players to share in the payoff. The trifecta payoffs will drastically decline. Same thing applies to pick 3s.

Your argument about Uncle Sam applies only to high paying wagers like superfectas and pick 4s. Trifectas and pick 3s are still within the reach of the vast majority of the players, and they very rarely pay enough to get the tax man involved. They should be left alone.

If a horseplayer finds $1 trifectas and pick 3s out of his league, let him bet the exactas. If the player loses the value in the exotics, what else is left?

Having been in bookmaking (legal) for over 20 years, I'm well aware of varying combinations and permutations concerning exotic wagers.

I understand, also, your point about the smaller increments upsetting the traditional $2 (or higher) exotic player who resents the fact that a 10 cent player can scoop an entire pool through his ability to cover far more combinations.

It's true, the dynamics of playing into a pool with smaller base increments are dramatically altered. Covering assorted longshots, that would not otherwise be played, is a calculated risk. It is no "get rich quick" scheme, believe me.
At the end of the day, the best handicappers will get the money, regardless of the minimum wagering increment.

With a smaller base increment for Pick 3s and trifectas, I believe that handle in those pools, would increase to a small degree, at least initially.
There are only so many disposable dollars out there when in comes to betting into pari-mutuel pools. A dramatic rise in handle would be very unlikely.

That being said, any rise in handle is a positive. The only minimum, imo, that should be enforced is a per ticket amount (say $1 total).

WPS increments of $2 need no alteration.
Exotics need a closer look, though, and smaller minimum increments would do little to hurt handle. It would just rub some traditionalists the wrong way.

[CBedo]

Everyone seems to worry about payoffs going down, which I guess would be true for the longshot combinations that people can now spread more to hit, but this means that they are betting less on the lower and mid price horses, or more simplistically and easier to prove for sure--more losing tickets. Value could be greater in some situations.

[BombsAway Bob]

Racing needs new blood getting into betting.By lowering Pick-3's to Fifty Cent minimums, it lets weekend or monthly bettors the chance to spread on tickets,
& maybe cash... how can that be a bad thing?
With the Big fields and young players at Keeneland (or..nudge,nudge,Saratoga some day), a novice can go 5 x 4 x 2 for Twenty Bucks on a Fifty-cent Pick-3. With big pools & a 19% takeout, they stand a chance to get to the "Will-Pay" leg of a bet on a more regular basis.
Favorite players should benefit most, as smaller bettors turn their $1 Pick-3 into a $.50 play, spending the same total dollars;A "Bookie-buster" Winner paired with two of the top three "Program Consensus" selections in the other two legs will likely suffer a small reduction in their score.
I sincerely hope TVG goes head-first into having On-Air Talent post Pick-3 tickets, just to get the general public aware of them. Opportunity knocks...

[trying2win]

I was checking the entries for Fri. Apr. 2/10 at Keeneland, and found out something else I didn't know about this track. Besides the new 50 cent Pick 3, I see Keeneland also offers 50 cent Pick 4's and 50 cent trifectas.

I'm not a fan of 3 horse or more gimmick bets, or polytrack surfaces, but for those that are and have strategies for Pick 3, 4, and trifectas, I guess they'll be happy trying their fortunes at the upcoming Keeneland meet. And, with a takeout rate of 19 % at Keeneland on these kind of bets, it makes the challenge of trying to make a profit a bit easier compared to many other tracks with their 25 % + takeouts. And of course to further enhance a bettors hope, there is the odd ADW where you can get a rebate on these gimmick bets, to further reduce the effective takeout below 19 %.

T2W

[fmolf]

As a wps and exacta bettor only(I am older and a traditionalist)I think it is a good idea that they are trying to make these bets more affordable.I think that you may find that payoffs might even go up slightly as more ignorant monies are played into these pools.I never play any track that has synthetics so i will not be partaking but i have played some of the 50 cent tri's at tampa bay downs just for the sheer fun of it!

[Light]

If the trifecta is reduced to 10 cents instead of $1, the bet will get very easy to hit, because the tiny investment needed will allow all the players to share in the payoff. The trifecta payoffs will drastically decline. Same thing applies to pick 3s.


Retama Park has 10 cent tri's. You should try them and see how "easy" they are. Just because the base denomination goes down doesn't mean you will get richer. Two reasons. A) You have to invest in quite a few more combinations to improve your chances over $1 tri's and B) when you hit, the payoffs are only one tenth what the $1 tri's pay.

If they are so "easy" for 10 cents,then you should be totally confident to bet them for $1 with the same coverage as 10 cents. The truth is the average losing player will still lose money for 10 cent tri's as they do on $1 tri's. Same as supers. They just lose at a slower rate. They dont hurt the payoffs because they are only receiving 1/10th the rate. Exactas used to be $5 minimum. All that happened when they went down to $1 was they became more playable and more popular.

The majority play for recreation. Management should make it affordable and attractive and bend with the times or they will continue losing customers,especially in this economy.

[chickenhead]

Everyone seems to worry about payoffs going down, which I guess would be true for the longshot combinations that people can now spread more to hit, but this means that they are betting less on the lower and mid price horses, or more simplistically and easier to prove for sure--more losing tickets. Value could be greater in some situations.

I think most often what would tend to happen is that the overbet combinations, the high percentage combinations, move up somewhat, closer to the loss from takeout. The lightly bet combinations, medium percentage combinations -- move down. And the never bet combos out on the far end, the lowest percentage combos, which are dramatically underlaid because the pools don't have enough money in them (relative to the base bet) to pay out, move up closer to the take.

[BombsAway Bob]

An Overview of Friday at Keeneland~ Betting Field Sizes in the New $.50 Minimum
Rolling Pick-3 Sequence, along with betting public & my likely "key" Pick-3 horses:

Race-Field Size- Comments
1st.) ---7(e)----------- Ward Entry & Heiligbrodt/Asmussen will key 90% of first leg Pick-3's.
2nd.) ---5---------------Start of P4; Many will buy leg; 3 in field coming off 6,7,& 10 mo.layoffs.
3rd.) ---10(e)---------Catalano entry, W.W.'s Lady's Man,& Shug dropper will be P3 keys;
I like #6,beaten fave here in '09.
4th.) ---9(e)-----------Vulnerable? Entry will take much P3 $$;
#8,Pitched Perfectly & #9,Another Dancer, my keys.
5th.) ---8---------------Head-Scratcher; Hit it Rich if you beat #6,Hit it Rich.
6th.) ---8---------------Argument against Argue=slow breaker,underlay.
Gonna squeeze #6,Sheza Sweet Lemon,surprise speed pkg.?
7th.) ---12(+1ae)--Start of Late P4; I Honestly think seven in field capable= 1,2,5,6,9,10,11;
#5,Averymerrymoment my 15/1ml "BOMB"!
8th.) ---7---------------Wide Open leg, I'm keying #6,Fish, dropping from stakes,
& #7,Pegasus Prancer, turf/synth, 8F-7F,too juicy 8/1ml.
9th.) ---9---------------The Transylvania Stakes~ I'm keying #6 & #8, w/a little #2 & #7 for extra coverage.
10th.)---12------------Another wide-open leg, I'm keying #1(Maria's Mon on Synth),
#3(2nd-time poly,1st time KentD), & #9, my "Other Bomb" Opening Day.

[BombsAway Bob]

BombsawayBob wrote:

I'm going to try & fill in race pools as they go, but I gotta bet, too!

field -Race#-WPS$ - Ex.$ - Tri.$ -- Super -- D.D.$ - Pick-3 - Pick-4

seven 1st~ $176k - $108k - $62.5k - $25.2k --NA------ NA---- - NA-------

five 2nd~ $177k - $108k - $67.4k - NA---- $64.8k -- NA---- - NA-------

ten 3rd~ $256k - $181k - $125k - $68k - $17.9k - $61.3k - NA---------

eight 4th~ $245k - $162k - $117k - $60k - $17k ---- $28.8k - (P3 low due to P4?)

eight 5th~ $295k - $203k - $146k - $73.6k - $20.3k - $53.5k - $115k

seven 6th~ $292k - $195k - $147k - $71k - $17.9k - $52.2k - NA

twelve 7th~ $412k - $259k - $169k - $93k - $25k - $51.1k - (start late P4)

seven 8th~ $335k - $208k - $137k - $56.8k - $22.4k - $54.6k - NA

seven 9th~ $391k - $241k - $173k - $82k - #36.5k - $47.9k - (P3 low due to P4?)

twelve10th~$291k - $214k - $154k - $107k - $78.3k - $79.7k - $241k - (SHF:$6,847)

--------------------------------------------

Early & Late Doubles are still ingrained in bettors' minds... Good pools!

Last Pick-3 of the Day & Last Race super are the other "Get-out" bets of choice.

Early Pick-4 pool of over $100k was probably low due to field of five in 2nd.

Race 2-3-4 Pick-3 sequence over 50% lower than all others!

Pick-3 in races 1-2-3 surprisingly high.. promo about the new $.50 bet?