TUP 03-30-10 Race-3

[Partsnut]

TUP 03-30-10 Race-3

Here's a fairly straight forward route at 8 F.
I used Synergism 4 for my selection.

I believe this race will come down to the (2) Swingin Storm and the (6) Broken Habit. Being as this track has an early bias I would favor the (2).
The biggest question being, will the (2) will be worth a bet.
Please see the read-outs for this race below.
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A race can be posted before the fact and one can just as easily learn from it.
I'm not afraid of being wrong. I have nothing to sell anyone.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I'm not sure what I'm looking at in those screenshots, but I'd be interested to see/learn how #7 San Clemente Blue figures into the equation in the context of the race using that system.

[Partsnut]

johnhannibalsmith:

I'm not sure what I'm looking at in those screenshots, but I'd be interested to see/learn how #7 San Clemente Blue figures into the equation in the context of the race using that system.



I did not include that horse in my contender selection because to me, and in my opinion, this horse does not figure. I could be wrong. Possibly you see or know something that is not obvious to me.

[46zilzal]

6 Broken Habit and 7 San Clemente Blue will head out first

then the rail horse Sonata state move make a middle to late move
and very very late will come the :3: Our Kirsty

The :2: has contested paces much slower than the rest here, but for the price I would look elsewhere but keep it in an exotic.

[johnhannibalsmith]

johnhannibalsmith:


I did not include that horse in my contender selection because to me, and in my opinion, this horse does not figure. I could be wrong. Possibly you see or know something that is not obvious to me.

She's not a standout.

What she is a decent old mare that gets into the race on the N1y (actually since December) condition as opposed to the n4L condition that most of the contenders are in on. Her last win was a N1y condition earlier in the meet and she was freshened shortly thereafter.

This was once a pretty nice cheap mare. She's not quite the same as she once was, but she has had two sprints off the short break and her last is tons better than it appears in the form. She was buried in traffic at the fence between the five-sixteenths and three-sixteenths before swinging out near the eighth and being a bit outfinished late.

She prefers a route - she has useful tactical speed, able to pick a spot to run from - and in the context of this race, this seems like spot/scenario in which she is MOST likely to run a top effort, assuming that her top effort resembles her top efforts of previous stages in her career.

I can't build a convincing case that she deserves a massive win play or significant investment, but she's on my pick four ticket and had I played other exotics, I'd feel obligated to use her.

[Partsnut]

Tim and John,

You are both versed handicappers and I thank you for participating in this race and making it more interesting. Constructive opinions such as yours add lots to this thread.

Bill

[maiom01]

The 1 Sonata ST looks to in good form..A 3 for 51 runner. Stretching back out today..Currently 8-1 and the value bet imo to wp..

[46zilzal]

6 Broken Habit and 7 San Clemente Blue will head out first

then the rail horse Sonata state move make a middle to late move
and very very late will come the :3: Our Kirsty

The :2: has contested paces much slower than the rest here, but for the price I would look elsewhere but keep it in an exotic.
1/2/3/6

[johnhannibalsmith]

The 1 Sonata ST looks to in good form..A 3 for 51 runner. Stretching back out today..Currently 8-1 and the value bet imo to wp..

Good call... clearly wants to run long and has to move out of Statebred company to get the distance. Didn't think she was quite good enough to step up and face better despite the distance change...

Meanwhile... I am officially cured of San Clemente Blue. She's done.

[46zilzal]

How about the turfer next?

:5: stands out with :3: :2: :8: following

[Partsnut]

Nice pick: maiom01

[johnhannibalsmith]

I love Tony The Pony (#5), but he's very tough to take at a short price in this field. He's benefitted from beating some of the worst $6,250 turf horses around since plummeting to this level over the last year or so.

Unfortunately, the next most viable contender appears to be Lainies Lion, who may end up being an even shorter price. This one was entered as part of the turf distance series and scratched, now that he's in for $6,250, it's pretty clear that he wasn't scratched because they didn't want to lose him for the $7,500.

I'd probably have to take a wild swing in this field and ignore Robertino's pair with back class and instead try for #3 Unbroken Vow. His back turf races fit here, he may be able to set closer to the pace than it appears at first, and this horse is eligible for a funny condition that they write in AZ - non winners of two in two years - and yet, Kelly Bainum goes for an open turf race. She can read a condition book, so I'm grasping at straws at trying to make a circumstantial case here.

Of course, Dennis Collins is not one of my preferred turf riders, but...

[maiom01]

Not betting..But if I had...1-5 exacta COLD>>

[maiom01]

I'd probably have to take a wild swing in this field and ignore Robertino's pair with back class and instead try for #3 Unbroken Vow.

Nice one JOHN...18-1

[46zilzal]

How about the turfer next?

:5: stands out with :3: :2: :8: following
results close

[johnhannibalsmith]

Nice one JOHN...18-1

Unfortunately, your score with Sonata Street cost me the pick four... :D

[Partsnut]

Tim, that was a great call on the Exacta (3-5)
I hope you pounded it.:ThmbUp:

I couldn't get into that race because I didn't have enough time to look at it.

[46zilzal]

Tim, that was a great call on the Exacta (3-5)
I hope you pounded it.:ThmbUp:

I couldn't get into that race because I didn't have enough time to look at it.
NOT enough, you can never OVERBET a winner.

This LIVE interaction, without ego, is refreshing!

so :4: :5: :8: in the next one?

[johnhannibalsmith]

I don't like this race, but I'll stick with :1: :7: :4: ....

It's a true rat race and Bonkerforbinkers just needs an excuse, one horse to run a big one, and he'll settle for minor scraps at a short price.

Big Al Cordes was in a five furlong dash as chalk and missed the start on a drop to an all-time low. I'm naturally skeptical of his physical condition, but Big Ed Kereluk can deal with a horse with problems. I wouldn't want to gamble at less than 7-2 or so, but...

Miguel Silva never noticed that Haja Boy runs in blinkers when making his local debut. Today they go back on. That's enough for me to think he may fire today at a square price.

[maiom01]

I 'll take the lightly raced Muqtarib runner to wp..

[46zilzal]

results

[46zilzal]

next one a contest to catch the :2: with :4: :5: :7:

[johnhannibalsmith]

This is a rider's race. If they allow Atta Boy Roy to secure the lead without much pressure, there's probably little they can do to grind him down. Should Forest Echoes committ to outside pressure, I think he can be defeated in his first back since October at Santa Anita. Atta Boy Roy has never quite run as well when engaged throughout or from off the pace.

Of course, I have difficulty finding an alternative here - Goin' Dancin is good enough but always gets a stupid ride. Lightning Tanner has the numbers, but I doubt his true class after what I consider a flattering set-up in the restricted Coyote last time. Most of the others just don't seem like enough horse to actually win this race.

But then there's old Bobadieu - Doug Oliver has won a handful of big races with this veteran "stretching out" from mixed breed hook races and short sprints and he exits a narrow five furlong defeat at the hands of a decent local runner. For whatever reason, Oliver has always seemed to almost be able to "control" this guy's form cycles, and I tepidly see this one cycling back to one of his top races.

:3: :5: :8:

[46zilzal]

the favorite here worked OUT in 108.8 wow

[johnhannibalsmith]

the favorite here worked OUT in 108.8 wow

And its his most recent work, which is one of the strikes against him in my book. Take the edge off with a three-quarter blister ten days out, huh?

[46zilzal]

the favorite here worked OUT in 108.8 wow
and handed them their collective heads in 1:09.32

Horseplayer interactive listed this one 5/2 with a minute to post and I had him THREE lines better than any other horse in the field. but then so did everyone else!

[johnhannibalsmith]

Much too good for those... very impressive...

[46zilzal]

next turfer :8: :4: :5: :3:

[johnhannibalsmith]

:5: :2: :6:

I singled #5 Memorial Way on a pick four ticket as the 'lone outsider'. Tapeta to TuP grass has been a smooth transition for most and I just have to believe that this one was facing much better while in the Gilchrist barn. I don't much like that he lacks a discernible running style, which may just confuse Scotty Stevens into a braindead ride.

Poet's Cove has had two bad/odd trips over the grass. The last trip was completely ridiculous, a wild middle move that left him just short at the gap. He seems the logical alternative if everything comes together for him in his third start here.

Raton Pass has arguably been keeping the best company of the local crowd, but it hasn't translated to very good races. Ran well enough on turf last time that if the company is more to his liking, he should show what talent he has.

[46zilzal]

wow close at 20/1 and fourth choice hits but I didn't play it.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Ouch... straight threes on the grass at TuP... always a strange race... a particularly big race by the :4:

[johnhannibalsmith]

I can state unequivocally that I would have needed the "all" button to find either of the top two finishers.

[46zilzal]

8th :1: :2: out front with :2: :9: :4: chasing them

[johnhannibalsmith]

8th :1: :2: out front with :2: :9: :4: chasing them

Hmmmm.... Maybe I'm reading this upside down, but I fully expect Collins to ship #5 Billy Boy Blue for all he's worth to make the lead with Lori Keith working hard to keep #8 Conditional from dragging her into a sub :23 opening quarter with the former.

:9: :6: :8:

The class drop here for #9 Hurry Up Austin looks like all that is required to get him a win... three races ago he was six behind Zensational in the Grade I Bing Crosby and now he's in for $3,000... He's still owned in part by the Stutes and Brinson isn't legging up a 2% rider, so I'm not going to panic about his chances of actually making the course. The things that bothers me most is that he really isn't much of a route horse - but against these, he sure can be, I suppose.

He's A Flyer used to be a better horse. Now he's been stuck in neutral for a while. Got what I consider a big rider switch from a string of "passengers" to Ry Eikleberry, who can take a lazy, perhaps heartless gelding and implore a little effort out of him. I think he's just unlucky to have caught the favorite today or I would love him.

Conditional also was once a much better horse and he can sprint or route. He hasn't shown the fire of a winner in some time, but he could have enough early position turning for home to swell up and fight a bit more today than he has in some of his other recent route races.

[46zilzal]

You give far far too much credit to riders being able to change the fundamental way a horse runs....If they fight it, they only detract from what the horse can do.

going nuts over the shipper.

[johnhannibalsmith]

You give far far too much credit to riders being able to change the fundamental way a horse runs....If they fight it, they only detract from what the horse can do.

going nuts over the shipper.

I dunno, it looked to run about the way I described.

[46zilzal]

results are in

[johnhannibalsmith]

Alright, we've made it through eight, may as well swing at the junker maidens in the finale...

:2: :8: :4:

I know that I like #2 Sincity Glow here and is probably the value in the field among a group of legit contenders. His lone TuP race is by far the best since perhaps those races in California long ago as he encountered quite a bit of trouble just as he was lengthening. I hate to take a bit of a career maiden that couldn't win in New Mexico, but he seems like he should offer the best value of roughly a half-dozen possibilities and probably is best used as a "key" play.

Prarie Falcon could be anything. Three races at Santa Anita, now at Tup versus bottom maidens.

Riley's Classic adds lasix after stopping like he was shot, but faces plenty of competing pace here. Wasioja similarly looked like he was home at the eighth pole and stopped to a walk against horrible state-bred maidens - not a bad horse, but not waiting to face AZ bred maidens is mindblowingly odd. Scottsdale Slew likely runs his usual - just good enough to earn favoritism next time, but not quite well enough to win... again.

[46zilzal]

:8: :10: :4:

[46zilzal]

:8: :10: :4:
dam mis read my read out

[redeye007]

here's some interesting data using a bris software program regarding brohamer numbers that I picked up on for 3/27/10 for sax"
race 5 winner bro ep-ap-sp 1-1-1
race 6 winner bro ep-ap-sp 3-3-2
race 7 winner bro ep-ap-sp 4-1-1
race 8 winner bro ep-ap-sp 6-2-1 1 1/2m race
race 9 winner bro ep-ap-sp 3-2-1
race 10 winner bro ep-ap-sp 5-2-2

I couldn't believe that no one hit the pick 6. looks like a definite pattern here 1st or 2nd sp won all 6 races:eek: