IDENTIFYING THE BEST HANDICAPPER

[Jay Trotter]

We often see much lively banter on this site and others about the value of any given Handicapping Contest being worth its salt in truly identifying the "Best Horseplayer"!

It is often stated "a contest is too short" or "the rules cater to a specific wagering style" or the winner is simply "the lucky one who hit it right that day". It is rare when a "Winner" is given his due as a truly deserving "Champion"!

I would venture to say that any good contest would combine the need for solid handicapping skills with the ability to make wise wagering decisions. One with out the other will always fall short.

What do you think a true test of a champion should look like:

1) Should it be a long-term contest (at least 6 months)?

2) Should it be Win/Place/Show or should Exotics be included?

3) Should there be a minimum of 100, 200 or 500 plays required to qualify?

4) What should the starting bankroll be? ($1,000; more?)

5) Should the wagers be flat bets or should there be a range of bet sizes allowed?

6) Assuming a "decent size prize" would players be willing to expose their credibility to a test of this nature?

7) Is ROI the best method of scoring results or is there a better way?

8) Any other issues to consider?


Please tell us what your perfect contest format would look like as a way of identifying a true champion horesplayer!

[Robert Goren]

I am not sure that you can devise a contest to determine the best handicapper. There are a lot ways to skin a horse. I entered the pick 4 contest even though I would never buy a pick 4 ticket. Some people like to splash money around in Exotics and others grind it out by betting in the show pool. Almost any contest would have to be over long period of time and allow any form of betting at all tracks. The minimum number of plays is a hard one. There are very good handicappers who sit for weeks waiting to pounce. There are other who only bet one or two tracks and bet almost every race. Then there are tote board people who bet at the very last second. The starting Cash should be at least $10k so people who splash in supra pools wouldn't bust out early. I am going to put a little thought in this see if i can think of some more ideas. JMO

[46zilzal]

I have never liked contests because they are too restrictive and do not represent, even closely, life in the real world as they force the cappers to look at many of the same races.

A good contest would start with all contestants having the same bankroll, go over at least a month with NO restrictions on size or type of any wager, and would allow the entrants the latitude to place those wagers at ANY TRACK they choose (since shopping for the better market is part and parcel of the game) and be based on the only criteria out there ROI.

[DJofSD]

A system like what golf has in the FedEx Cup might fill the bill.

[Jay Trotter]

Explain this a little for us DJ.

A system like what golf has in the FedEx Cup might fill the bill.

[Tom]

I'm no big fan of contests. If you want it to meaningful, I suggest a set bankroll that is nowhere near enough to cover the whole contest. Put the threat of tapping in there. Does picking a P4 with a shotgun ticket make you a better capper than the guy who hits three winners cold? Is money-management part of the deal?

I like this - contest is 200 races, you start with $200.
Win bets only, whatever amount you want.

[Bobzilla]

I think there are going to be a lot of varying views on this question. Of course much of the argument will stem back to how the word handicapper is defined. There are many good handicappers who are not at all savvy when it comes to utilizing the menu/pools to their advantage and/or leveraging their opinions in the most optimal way to increase their ROI. So are we looking to factor those playing skills into the final analysis? Some will probably want to see evidence of this skill before recognizing someone as one of the best. Others won't care if there is evidence of savvy play and will only be interested in number of win hits or percentages. Others will place emphasis on ROI. If there is a year long contest and someone hits a 4 day California carryover by himself do they automatically become the best handicapper of the year?

I guess I'm wondering if we're looking for the best horseplayer or the best handicapper. If it's strictly the best handicapper, where contestants are judged strictly on ability to assess the probabilities of horses in a large sampling of races, then maybe something similar to last year's TwinSpires Leaderboard ROI competition, with a few tweaks, might be a good approach. Over the course of a year a player would have 60 plays a month for a total of 720 plays. The plays can be from any track where thoroughbred racing is conducted but the plays are divided by racing surface, 20 dirt 20 turf and 20 AWS (to prove handicapping skill outside of possible comfort zones). Or maybe a player would simply have to have at least make 10 plays on each surface and can use their own discretion with the others. The plays are $10 WP bets. Total outlay is $14,400. No caps; with 720 plays I doubt they would be necessary. No Show because of the probability of minus show pool payouts. If nothing else I think this might give a good indication of who the best long-term VALUE players are, and my own personal opinion is that being able to consistently find value, overlays, is what best demonstrates handicapping skill.

[DJofSD]

OK, I'll give it a shot.

There is a series of tournaments which are eligible for touring pro's to compete in, in order to earn points for the end of the year. For all but the 4 majors, the point schedule for 1st, 2nd, etc., are the same while the majors have greater rewards, points-wise, due to the level of importance and competition. Points accumulate towards the end of the year when there is a multiple tournament show down. The point leaders above a cut level are the participants. Kind of like a play off for the NBA or other major sport.

Not every pro plays in all tournaments. And, not every player makes the cut in every tournament they do play in. It is a "year" long competition. Here's a link for part of the information from the FedExCup web site: http://www.pgatour.com/2008/fedexcup/11/25/2009changes.chart/index.html .

I can see where something similar could be done for handicappers. The major tournaments could be the Triple Crown races. Then the year end play offs could be some of the BC prep races with the piece de resistance being the BC races itself. The handicapper that makes the cut to play in the year end tournament then wins it would be the handicapper of the year.

[ranchwest]

Generally, this question brings to mind poker. There's a big difference between tournaments and cash games.

[thaskalos]

1. Starting bankroll is $500.

2. One month, 150 races - picked by the players. Win bets only.

3. Nobody is allowed to bet more than 10% of their bankroll on any one race.

4. No player gets to look at the leader board until the contest is over.

[Stillriledup]

1. Starting bankroll is $500.

2. One month, 150 races - picked by the players. Win bets only.

3. Nobody is allowed to bet more than 10% of their bankroll on any one race.

4. No player gets to look at the leader board until the contest is over.

I like 4. People shouldn't be able to adjust their late picks because they know they need a big longshot to catch up at the end.

[Jay Trotter]

I just received an email from Youbet.com -- perhaps a format similar to theirs might work -- 5 seperate divisions as outlined below:

Take the MyROI Challenge on the Keeneland meeting,
April 2-23. Compete in all five divisions all meet long for a chance to win up to $1,500. Compete in multiple divisions for more chances to win big with Youbet.com.



Each Division is a separate contest that begins and ends with the Keeneland spring meeting, April 2-23. Highest ROI wins.


Win Division
Play at least $10 to Win
Play at least 10 separate races from Keeneland, April 2-23
Play at least $200 in total contest wagers in this division
Highest ROI at the end of the meet wins

Show Division
Play at least $10 to Show
Play at least 10 separate races from Keeneland, April 2-23
Play at least $200 in total contest wagers in this division
Highest ROI at the end of the meet wins

Exacta Division
Play Exactas for $1 or more
Play at least 10 separate races from Keeneland, April 2-23
Play at least $200 in total contest wagers in this division
Highest ROI at the end of the meet wins

Trifecta Division
Play Trifectas for $0.50 or more
Play at least 10 separate races from Keeneland, April 2-23
Play at least $200 in total contest wagers in this division
Highest ROI at the end of the meet wins

Daily Double Division
Play Daily Doubles for $1 or more
Play at least 10 separate races from Keeneland, April 2-23
Play at least $200 in total contest wagers in this division
Highest ROI at the end of the meet wins

[maiom01]

A good contest would start with all contestants having the same bankroll, go over at least a month with NO restrictions on size or type of any wager, and would allow the entrants the latitude to place those wagers at ANY TRACK they choose (since shopping for the better market is part and parcel of the game) and be based on the only criteria out there ROI.

This type of contest can be set up by the player at BetAmerica.com....An entry fee is paid by each player. These entry fees are paid back to the players with no takeout..You decide the number of places paid out and the percentages..A real money bankroll is set aside for this contest also. Your contest bankroll will be transferred back to your main account balance at the end of the contest..Here's an example tourney you could set up..
$100 entry fee
$500 Bankroll
ROI tournament
April 5th to May 5th
All thoroughbred tracks..
All types of wagers
Top 2 players get a payout of the entry fees
A 70/30 split..

Good Luck!!!!

[Robert Goren]

Easy to score. I really feel for Jay and company trying keep track of that parlay contest. Add a couple hundred more entries and you got a real mess. JMO

[therussmeister]

The only thing I don't like about all types of wagers is somebody could get lucky with a pick 6. What I really, really don't like about it is, it's not going to be me. I never play the pick 6. ;)

[Robert Goren]

Is being a handicapper about picking winners or money management skills? That is the first thing you have to decide when you are setting up the contest. JMO

[thaskalos]

Is being a handicapper about picking winners or money management skills? That is the first thing you have to decide when you are setting up the contest. JMO The best handicapper should be the best combination of handicapping AND betting.

[Johnny V]

1. Starting bankroll is $500.

2. One month, 150 races - picked by the players. Win bets only.

3. Nobody is allowed to bet more than 10% of their bankroll on any one race.

4. No player gets to look at the leader board until the contest is over.
I too like the idea of #4. This type of contest would be a step in the direction, but I am not too sure any contest can ever really decide the "best" handicapper. Contest play as it stands really just decides who the best contest player is on that particular day.
Contest play and everyday money play are quite different and require somewhat different skills and mindset.
Many handicappers are successful, each playing very differently, betting differently yet they are successful playing and knowing their strengths.

[Hanover1]

The best handicappers need rubberbands instead of a moneyclip.

[thaskalos]

The best handicappers need rubberbands instead of a moneyclip. And that's what is left at the end of most days. The rubber bands...

[Jay Trotter]

I agree.........the thread should have been titled "The Best Horesplayer" to combine the qualities of handicapping and betting!

:ThmbUp:

Is being a handicapper about picking winners or money management skills? That is the first thing you have to decide when you are setting up the contest. JMO

[canleakid]

"4. No player gets to look at the leader board until the contest is over."

So, do we pm the picks to the to the person running the contest :confused:

[Tee]

This would never work, too much tweaking!! :)

A system like what golf has in the FedEx Cup might fill the bill.

[DJofSD]

Tweaking? Like what?

[Tee]

DJ,

Do a search for tweaking the fedex cup. It was somewhat of an inside joke, I was just having some fun.

Tweaking? Like what?

[formula_2002]

make it a true "handicapper of the year contest".
lenghth of contest ...1 year.
bet any track
$2 flat win bets
1000,minimum bets (min of 15 bets per week)
$200 bankroll
best roi wins (total returned/total bet) or last man standing with a positive roi after 1000 bets.
no leader board until end of contest.

[formula_2002]

7) Is ROI the best method of scoring results or is there a better way?

for players that make more than 1 win bet per race use the ratio of
actual winners/expected winners
where expected winners =1/(odds+1)

[arno]

I say divide all the tracks running during the contest into A B C and D tracks by handle.

Contest runs for 3 months and player must wager 4 bets a day. One from A B C and D.

Win and/or Win and Place betting.

Starting bankroll can be decided but can only bet 20% of your bankroll on any given day.

Can see leaderboard only at end of month one and at end of monthe 2.

Arnie

[Jay Trotter]

Please keep the comments coming ....

... as I do hope to make this one "Super Contest" a reality!

I'm looking at the time frame of May 1st (Kentucky Derby) to November 6th (Breeder's Cup Day 2) which is pretty much half a year (190 days).

Of course, this time frame could change with the input received.

Thanks,

Trotter:ThmbUp: