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cees with dees
03-30-2010, 10:30 AM
With the promise now of a sloppy track Wednesday, then probably a drying out good track on Thursday, I'm jumping right to Friday.
Starting in the first, a great early double.
Dakota Dunes plays as the inside speed which eliminates a bunch of the field with similar running styles.
Lofty Banner may benefit from a fast pace and getting off the inner should help this one.
In the second, Gilted Edge is definitely coming up to his best off two tough tries especially his last when forced to chase from an outside post going long off just one sprint.
One turn mile today should put him just off the likely front runner, Dance Floor Maniac, who figures to be hammered at the windows off this mirage of a huge rider change.
In the third, Be Bullish ran every inch of his last sprint. Stretch to 7 may allow him to relax and turn the tables on Dr. W. A tough horse to take at less than even money for a barn that has been firing on all cylinders the entire winter. That has to end.
In the fourth, Bad Debt should get the best of a bad field and be closer to the pace with the class drop.
In the fifth, Wild News is reportedly breaking down her stall doors. Can win from anywhere for barn primed for big meet.
In the sixth, I think Eurosensation just has to show up to win here.
Must have some issues though as both races were okay and Linda as owner/trainer drastically drops this one well below what she paid.
A risky proposition who should win as she pleases.
The seventh is a ouija board which will be contested on a good to yielding turf.
On principal, there are two gray Cozzene's. The one of only two first time turf angles I consider.
In the eighth, Tell Me First is an absolute bullet who returns fresh for secretly sharp outfit.
Should run these off their feet from start to finish at a nice price. May Day Now and CT Chimes both spark interest in a race that could possibly melt down.
In the last, don't know what happened to Volponi's Dragon but was really okay when turfing in 08 for Tagg.
Good race to watch and wheel in pick 4's.
Till Friday...
Ben

cees with dees
04-01-2010, 04:43 PM
I'm going to try and get things rolling right off the bat with a Dakota Dunes/Lofty Banner exacta reversing very small. And a tri play 2/1/all 2/all/1.
I'm going to make a solid DD 2/5 and small 1/5 and pick 3's 1,2/5/2 mainly 2/5/2.
As far as the early pick 4 goes, I'm solid with keying Gilt Edged and Be Bullish.
Will look for additional coverage in the 4th as I don't all that much trust Bad Debt and in the 5th, it's very interesting that Wind Caper makes this class hike.
Hushion always spots his runners for action and the move up oozes confidence.
Also using Citifesta who could trip out off a big pace.
If I can get 6/5 on Eurosensation, I'm not bothering with any exotics. Otherwise will map out a pick 4 and exacta play once I get the changes and turf conditions etc.
Good luck all.
Ben
And by the way, it's supposed to be gorgeous Saturday so may make the trip to Aqueduct.
Lunch anyone????
PM me if interested.
Ben

46zilzal
04-01-2010, 04:48 PM
I have found over the years that the complexion of a race can change tremendously with a scratch....Isn't it a bit presumptuous to handicap a card when some influences may or may not be there?

Akin to wagering on a baseball game and not knowing if you pitcher will be there or not...

Hats off to you but I could never even attempt it without the final talley.

cees with dees
04-01-2010, 08:53 PM
You are absoutely correct and I adjust accordingly if neccessary.
If a scratch occurs that changes what I think will be the race set up, it can sometimes alter my selection 100%.

clore1030
04-02-2010, 11:42 AM
As long as you're being so accommodating, may I ask another favor?

If you could space a line between each race it would make it a bit easier to read.

But keep up the good work.

cees with dees
04-02-2010, 12:43 PM
That is an easy one. No problem.
Ben

cees with dees
04-02-2010, 12:55 PM
Since the odds on these horses are so ridiculously short in this the first race, and you have to remember, I have no morning line when I do these cards, I'm betting a small cold exacta here 2/1 and a cold triple 2/1/4.
The 2/5 DD is fair so playing that as well as the 2/5/2 pick 3.
Saving with Lofty Banner to break even.
Good luck
Ben

cees with dees
04-02-2010, 01:43 PM
I'm only getting involved with two more races on this card.
In the 3rd, I'm betting Be Bullish to win and a pick 3 play of 2/8/all and 2/8/1,4,5

In the 6th, I'm definitely making a win bet on Simple Cat. This race has scratched down to nothing and he has some hidden ability in both lines.
Also making a pick 4 play 9/2,6,8/8,9/8
See you all tomorrow.
Ben

cees with dees
04-02-2010, 02:11 PM
We all take bad beats and I'm ordinarily not a complainer but this is 4 heartbreakers in a row.
Enough is enough already.
Ben

46zilzal
04-02-2010, 02:16 PM
We all take bad beats and I'm ordinarily not a complainer but this is 4 heartbreakers in a row.
Enough is enough already.
Ben
Dick Mitchell did a computer simulation and even with is high hit rate he stated that runs of between 7 to 10 in a row are NORMAL.

cees with dees
04-02-2010, 03:00 PM
That's really interesting. But I'll be very happy to stop at 4.
Thanks for the note.
Ben