Lookin At Lucky Staying Home For Derby Prep

[Grits]

http://www.drf.com/news/article/111784.html

[andymays]

Smart move by Baffert. :ThmbUp:

[Hanover1]

Smart move by Baffert. :ThmbUp:
I hope you are correct Andy...A big Baffert/Lucky fan here, but not a big fan of constant surface switches prior to the big dance. My humble experience has been of a negative nature when trying this approach before, however I was not training the likes of this colt either...Horses can make a trainer look real good, or.........

[elhelmete]

I'll be happy to see them all this Saturday.

[andymays]

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=5038872&campaign=rss&source=HORSEHeadlines

Excerpt:

"Looking at the really big picture - the Kentucky Derby - there are more positives than negatives" to staying home, Baffert said.

The negatives, he said, are running back three weeks after the Rebel and running on a synthetic track.

"The positives are the extra week and the weather is going to be cool," Baffert said. "He worked well enough [Sunday] to run him here. He's happy, and that's all that matters."

Lookin At Lucky worked six furlongs in 1:12 on Sunday and is expected to be favored Saturday under Garrett Gomez.

[Fingal]

Felt that Baffert wanted to stay here even if he'd be running for a bigger purse at Oaklawn. Here at SA he knew he was going to get a nice sunny day- back in Arkansas....... Why ship for uncertainty if you really don't have to ?

[Hanover1]

Given the info that is floating out there at this time, despite SA being Luckies home track, as a bettor I would look for a value play vs hammering on Lucky as a favorite. The goal here is a decent outing with a good trip/final time, to set him up for peak effort come Derby day. This does not mean he has to win. The dirt start last out was an effort to determine the colts ability to handle the surface, and his efforts with the blinkers as well. So far, all systems are go, however history shows us that horses need consistency to become comfortable, and I have already posted my comments regarding the switches of late with this colt. However, Lukas said it best: "A good horse will run on anything" and this is the defining moment for this colt given the switching around he has endured. Truely a great colt if he pulls this one off imo. Yes its a weak crop imo, but trust me when I tell you, if you switch a colt from surface to surface in short order i.e. Lucky, generally the results are sub par. Look hard at who is the most likely contender to pull off the upset, and use him on top..........

[Robert Goren]

When it comes to the Derby, If you have a horse that you think can win it, you run it. If they don't run, it is because they think the horse can't win it. If they say anything else, it is pure bull. JMO

[ManeMediaMogul]

I hope you are correct Andy...A big Baffert/Lucky fan here, but not a big fan of constant surface switches prior to the big dance. My humble experience has been of a negative nature when trying this approach before, however I was not training the likes of this colt either...Horses can make a trainer look real good, or.........

Every time you run at a different racetrack it is a surface switch. If you go from Oaklawn to Fair Grounds it is a surface switch. If you go from Aqueduct to Churchill it is a surface switch. ALL dirt tracks are different depending on where they are and the components in the soil.

How many times have you heard a jockey say, "my horse wasn't handling the track" - dirt or synthetic?

That is why the debate on synthetic versus dirt is so silly. It would be valid if all dirt tracks were uniform...but they are not even close. All synthetics are not the same - they have different properties by type and by location.

Handicapping principles at one track might not work at another track. You've gotta pick the tracks your handicapping style suits or make adjustments in how you handicap to the tracks you play if you want to be successful.

[joanied]

Given the info that is floating out there at this time, despite SA being Luckies home track, as a bettor I would look for a value play vs hammering on Lucky as a favorite. The goal here is a decent outing with a good trip/final time, to set him up for peak effort come Derby day. This does not mean he has to win. The dirt start last out was an effort to determine the colts ability to handle the surface, and his efforts with the blinkers as well. So far, all systems are go, however history shows us that horses need consistency to become comfortable, and I have already posted my comments regarding the switches of late with this colt. However, Lukas said it best: "A good horse will run on anything" and this is the defining moment for this colt given the switching around he has endured. Truely a great colt if he pulls this one off imo. Yes its a weak crop imo, but trust me when I tell you, if you switch a colt from surface to surface in short order i.e. Lucky, generally the results are sub par. Look hard at who is the most likely contender to pull off the upset, and use him on top..........

:ThmbUp: Wagering aside, this is a well said post...I'm a tiny bit concerned about keeping Lucky in CA., but I can't get myself to second guess Baffert...no doubt he'll ship to Churchill early enough to give Lucky enough time to get comfortable on another surface:faint: ...I've been on the Lucky-Baffert-Pegram bandwagon since last year...so I hope this works out the way Baffert thinks it will...and I agree, he doesn't have to win...just run a hell of a good race.
:)

[Bettowin]

:ThmbUp: Wagering aside, this is a well said post...I'm a tiny bit concerned about keeping Lucky in CA., but I can't get myself to second guess Baffert...no doubt he'll ship to Churchill early enough to give Lucky enough time to get comfortable on another surface:faint: ...I've been on the Lucky-Baffert-Pegram bandwagon since last year...so I hope this works out the way Baffert thinks it will...and I agree, he doesn't have to win...just run a hell of a good race.
:)


It would have worked (staying on the synthetic) for Pioneer of the Nile last year had MTB not ran the race of his and his offspring's lifetime. Oh that's right, MTB is a gelding:) I doubted Baffert with POTN last year and he ran a great Derby race.

[Cadillakin]

Every time you run at a different racetrack it is a surface switch. If you go from Oaklawn to Fair Grounds it is a surface switch. If you go from Aqueduct to Churchill it is a surface switch. ALL dirt tracks are different depending on where they are and the components in the soil.

How many times have you heard a jockey say, "my horse wasn't handling the track" - dirt or synthetic?

That is why the debate on synthetic versus dirt is so silly. It would be valid if all dirt tracks were uniform...but they are not even close. All synthetics are not the same - they have different properties by type and by location.

Handicapping principles at one track might not work at another track. You've gotta pick the tracks your handicapping style suits or make adjustments in how you handicap to the tracks you play if you want to be successful.
And that's all you need to know on the subject..

[PaceAdvantage]

And that's all you need to know on the subject..You're playing the game way too short handed if you're satisfied with that explanation.

[Hanover1]

Every time you run at a different racetrack it is a surface switch. If you go from Oaklawn to Fair Grounds it is a surface switch. If you go from Aqueduct to Churchill it is a surface switch. ALL dirt tracks are different depending on where they are and the components in the soil.

How many times have you heard a jockey say, "my horse wasn't handling the track" - dirt or synthetic?

That is why the debate on synthetic versus dirt is so silly. It would be valid if all dirt tracks were uniform...but they are not even close. All synthetics are not the same - they have different properties by type and by location.

Handicapping principles at one track might not work at another track. You've gotta pick the tracks your handicapping style suits or make adjustments in how you handicap to the tracks you play if you want to be successful.
The debate is so silly they may remove the surface next year, the very surface the horsemen love so well...... :D (Play laugh track please....)

[Hanover1]

It would have worked (staying on the synthetic) for Pioneer of the Nile last year had MTB not ran the race of his and his offspring's lifetime. Oh that's right, MTB is a gelding:) I doubted Baffert with POTN last year and he ran a great Derby race.
I had him (PON) for the win, as many did. This hunch never disspelled my concerns about the surface switch, however, and they remain to this day, for any stock. Silly isn't it?

[joanied]

It would have worked (staying on the synthetic) for Pioneer of the Nile last year had MTB not ran the race of his and his offspring's lifetime. Oh that's right, MTB is a gelding:) I doubted Baffert with POTN last year and he ran a great Derby race.

Agreed...Pioneer was my Derby horse last year...and that is one reason I said I never second guess Baffert....Lucky has been my top Derby horse since last year...and his running again on the fake stuff won't get me off him...at least with Lucky, Baffert did get his 'experiment' done already...blinkers, and dirt...the rest is just keeping the colt going forward and peaking on the first Sat. in May.

[Kimsus]

Smart move by Baffert. :ThmbUp:

I thought you hated synthetic tracks.

[Kimsus]

I'm curious if LAL goes on to win the derby will he be considered more of a synth horse to win the derby or a dirt horse that won? Or both.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I'm curious if LAL goes on to win the derby will he be considered more of a synth horse to win the derby or a dirt horse that won? Or both.

If he were to win the Derby, but not the SA Derby, I suppose opinion will gravitate towards his being a dirt horse that won.

If he were to win the Derby and the SA Derby, then I suppose opinion will gravitate towards him being both.

If he were to win the Derby and either win or lose the SA Derby and someone concludes that he is a synth horse, those same people will likely also be posting their annual declaration that this was the worst crop of three-year-olds in history.

Seems cut and dried to me.

[Kimsus]

If he were to win the Derby, but not the SA Derby, I suppose opinion will gravitate towards his being a dirt horse that won.

If he were to win the Derby and the SA Derby, then I suppose opinion will gravitate towards him being both.

If he were to win the Derby and either win or lose the SA Derby and someone concludes that he is a synth horse, those same people will likely also be posting their annual declaration that this was the worst crop of three-year-olds in history.

Seems cut and dried to me.

That's a good answer, I look at it a little more complicated due to his win in the Rebel at Oaklawn Pk. If he wins the SA Derby and then wins the K Derby, I am sure the SA prep will look more viable to other trainers. Obviously what I am getting at is synth is viewed as an inferior surface to most PA posters though there are a few like I do not see this as the case. All we have to do is look at the Rachel & Zen discussion to see how polarizing the surface debate really is. For me it would be a kick if he won the SA derby 1st and then K derby, and maybe finally dispel the notion that synth horses cannot win on dirt.

[johnhannibalsmith]

.... Obviously what I am getting at is synth is viewed as an inferior surface to most PA posters though there are a few like I do not see this as the case. All we have to do is look at the Rachel & Zen discussion to see how polarizing the surface debate really is. For me it would be a kick if he won the SA derby 1st and then K derby, and maybe finally dispel the notion that synth horses cannot win on dirt.

Yes, this was fairly obvious.

Accordingly, I elected to answer with a literal interpretation of the question to hopefully avoid another thirteen page detour into a resurrection of the same debates found in ninety-three other threads. :)

[NTamm1215]

It would have worked (staying on the synthetic) for Pioneer of the Nile last year had MTB not ran the race of his and his offspring's lifetime. Oh that's right, MTB is a gelding:) I doubted Baffert with POTN last year and he ran a great Derby race.

Really? You think POTN ran a GREAT race last year?

I think finishing up in 2:04 while swimming through the last two furlongs is far from great.

NT

[Robert Fischer]

Pioneerof the Nile(I believe named after a mid-rate Nile river cruise ship), probably wins a very mediocre Kentucky Derby does Borel not steal the race.

[Bettowin]

Really? You think POTN ran a GREAT race last year?

I think finishing up in 2:04 while swimming through the last two furlongs is far from great.

NT

Time only counts when you are in jail. POTN came from the plastic and should have won the Derby. Call it a bad to mediocre field and I wouldn't disagree but he still did beat a bunch of Derby horses.