What Factor(s) Impacts A Horse's Speed the Most?

[Cratos]

Much has been said and published about what factor(s) that retards or enhance the speed of the racehorse.

Beyond any doubt the primary factor is wind velocity and the direction of that velocity.

The basic reason is the wind force and the dynamics of the force of the horse coming together. This impact can best understood by vector analysis and aerodynamics.

Put a horse in a vacuum on a “perfect” surface and given it is in optimal physical condition running at its optimal distance limitation; it will run to its optimal speed limitations.

Put that same horse on a perfect race track at the same distance with a wind force and no matter its optimal physical condition its speed will be either enhanced or retarded depending on the wind force and its direction.

Racetrack surfaces are static and typically act as resistance barriers to a horse’s speed and if calculus integration is done the horse in optimal physical condition approaches its best innate speed as the surface approaches zero (optimality); as the surface moves away from zero, no matter the horse’s optimal physical condition, it will typically not run at its optimal speed (it will run either faster or slower).

[Saratoga_Mike]

Wow.

[Jeff P]

Racetrack surfaces are static and typically act as resistance barriers...
IMHO, track surface is dynamic.

Not too long ago I spent an afternoon trackside with a well known (large) bettor. One of the (many) things he did to separate himself from the betting public was keep trip notes that were short and to the point. One piece of info that he captured each day was a qiuck description of what he thought the ideal trip type for that day's races had been.

For example, if it appeared the rail and the front end were golden that day and a horse trailed its field and tried to close while going 4-5 wide on the turn... his trip note for that horse would be something like "CATG -4"... meaning "Closed Against The Grain at a cost of 4 Lengths"...

Or, if the horse had made that same closing move and he thought that move had actually been the ideal trip that day - his trip note might be something like: "CWTG +3"... meaning Closed With The Grain at a benefit of 3 Lengths.

The value of keeping notes (to him) was that as horses come back to race later he was giving himself the ability to adjust speed figs earned in horse's previous races + or - the number of lengths indicated by his notes... info that the public doesn't have access to.

The point I'm getting at is that track surface... especially track surface within the context of horses moving from one track surface to another is dynamic.



Switching back to track surface within the context of what I think you are trying to say...

I'll make the argument that horses have individual preferences for different surface types. All other influences being equal... wind, distance, level of competition, pace of race, etc... A horse in optimal physical condition will run faster if it encounters its preferred surface type on race day rather than if it encounters a surface type detrimental to its preferred way of going.


-jp

.

[Charlie D]

Surface Friction, weather conditions, surface kick back

[cj]

Beyond any doubt? Really?

I guess that would depend on the strength of the wind first and foremost. Put horses running in a bog with a 20 mile an hour headwind, and then running on a rock hard course against that same 20 mile an hour wind...which is going to be faster?

[Charlie D]

. Put horses running in a bog with a 20 mile an hour headwind, and then running on a rock hard course against that same 20 mile an hour wind...which is going to be faster?


Our climate means these conditions can appear on the same day:D

[Tom]

I don't really care. A variant is a variant is a variant.
If I expect a 47 half and get a 48, I don't care why, just how much. The variant is slow 5 or 10, depending how you do it. Might be wind, might be tracks, might be pace. I look more into what when I look at the whole day, trying to make sense out the card as a whole. First pass, I want to see how much each race varied from expected, then I worry about why, if there is a need. I know wind can screw with your numbers when it is not consistent throughout the day.

[Greyfox]

[QUOTE=Cratos]

Your question is far too vague to beg a meaningful response.
What do you mean by "speed" - early foot or stamina rating?
For starters I would say the greatest influence on either is:
GENETICS.
Do I use breeding in my handicapping?
No. Hardly ever.
Past performance is the best predictor of future performance any way you carve it. It's just that easy.

-

[Stillriledup]

The biggest factor that hinders speed horses is if Russell Baze is riding another speed horse in the race. When he's on a speed horse, the other horses magically lose their speed and their ability to press or be on the pace.

[Trotman]

The Needle

[46zilzal]

Fast twitch muscle fiber just like humans.

[46zilzal]

Racetrack surfaces are static and typically act as resistance barriers to a horse’s speed ).
This is too funny as years of observations of some courses "magically" get faster or slower on the big stakes days no matter the man made class of horse running.

[Granite]

The biggest factor that hinders speed horses is if Russell Baze is riding another speed horse in the race. When he's on a speed horse, the other horses magically lose their speed and their ability to press or be on the pace.

Very true, and the same thing happens at MNR with Deshawn Parker. LOL

[Robert Goren]

The biggest factor that hinders speed horses is if Russell Baze is riding another speed horse in the race. When he's on a speed horse, the other horses magically lose their speed and their ability to press or be on the pace.And I thought it was Ramon Dominguez.;)

[RonTiller]

Put a horse in a vacuum on a “perfect” surface and given it is in optimal physical condition running at its optimal distance limitation; it will run to its optimal speed limitations.
This is pure rubbish. Put a horse in a vacuum and it suffocates and dies.

Ron Tiller
HDW

[Charlie D]

This is pure rubbish. Put a horse in a vacuum and it suffocates and dies.

Ron Tiller
HDW

:lol:

[Cratos]

This is pure rubbish. Put a horse in a vacuum and it suffocates and dies.

Ron Tiller
HDW

That is very funny; therefore we can subsitute "vacuum" for "perfect conditions" and "imperfect conditions."

The intent was to solve the problem with isolating variables

[Hanover1]

Ya study long, ya study wrong....
Simple answer to question as posted is: Horses ability on that given day...I have never seen one look at a stopwatch. Variables are relative, not conclusive.

[Cratos]

IMHO, track surface is dynamic.

Not too long ago I spent an afternoon trackside with a well known (large) bettor. One of the (many) things he did to separate himself from the betting public was keep trip notes that were short and to the point. One piece of info that he captured each day was a qiuck description of what he thought the ideal trip type for that day's races had been.

For example, if it appeared the rail and the front end were golden that day and a horse trailed its field and tried to close while going 4-5 wide on the turn... his trip note for that horse would be something like "CATG -4"... meaning "Closed Against The Grain at a cost of 4 Lengths"...

Or, if the horse had made that same closing move and he thought that move had actually been the ideal trip that day - his trip note might be something like: "CWTG +3"... meaning Closed With The Grain at a benefit of 3 Lengths.

The value of keeping notes (to him) was that as horses come back to race later he was giving himself the ability to adjust speed figs earned in horse's previous races + or - the number of lengths indicated by his notes... info that the public doesn't have access to.

The point I'm getting at is that track surface... especially track surface within the context of horses moving from one track surface to another is dynamic.



Switching back to track surface within the context of what I think you are trying to say...

I'll make the argument that horses have individual preferences for different surface types. All other influences being equal... wind, distance, level of competition, pace of race, etc... A horse in optimal physical condition will run faster if it encounters its preferred surface type on race day rather than if it encounters a surface type detrimental to its preferred way of going.


-jp

.

I am always willing to learn something new; therefore what are the inherent forces that make a track surface "dynamic?"

A track surface does change with respect to environmental conditions, use, and maintenance. However those are external forces to the track’s surface and without them there is zero change.

However if we use the example that a horse is traveling on this perfect surface at 36 mph for a mile distance it would end the mile in 1:40. But along come a wind force which cause the horse to run 1 mph faster or 37 mph and guess what? The horse’s time for the mile is lowered to 1:37.29 seconds.

Can this happen? Yes, because when a horse is running its body essentially leaps through the air making it temporarily an airborne object and it becomes at that time vulnerable to the wind forces. But for the wind forces to “push” the horse ahead, the wind force and the horse must be in alignment.

[Cratos]

Ya study long, ya study wrong....
Simple answer to question as posted is: Horses ability on that given day...I have never seen one look at a stopwatch. Variables are relative, not conclusive.

Wrong, variables are conclusive, not absolute

[Hanover1]

Wrong, variables are conclusive, not absolute
And when you come to the wrong conclusion with your variables, that is absolute failure......

[Jeff P]

I am always willing to learn something new; therefore what are the inherent forces that make a track surface "dynamic?"
Watching races at Tampa Bay Downs over the past 2 meets a pattern I often see is horses taking an inside path on the far turn stop as soon as a competitor on the outside moves up to challenge.

Is the inside deeper and therefore more tiring? Is the inside down by the rail more steeply banked than the outside and therefore more tiring? Does the track layout cause kickback from the outside horse to strike the inside horse? Or maybe wind is the culprit... Is prevailing wind direction such that inside horses on the turn take the brunt of it while the outside horses are shielded?

I don't know the reason... I'm watching it on video from 3000 miles away. But I do know that an inside path on the turn at Tampa appears (at least to me) to be a consistently bad trip.

Let's say for the sake of argument that the inside path down by the rail on the turn happens to be deeper and more tiring than the outside. Think of what I'm trying to convey as being like sand on a beach where the sand by the water's edge is more tighly packed and therefore less tiring to run on than the sand 30 yards inland which is loose (not packed down at all) and you sink into it when you walk on it. Now put two horses of equal ability and condition side by side on the beach... one down by the waters edge and the other 30 yards inland where the footing is deeper and more tiring. Have them race 1 mile on the beach but each has to keep to its path. All other things being equal, after going about a half mile at speed the horse that's most inland will tire... and the one down by the water's edge on the better footing will start to pull away.

That's the type of surface effect I'm talking about.

Speed favoring vs. speed tiring... inside path vs outside path biases... these can vary on the same track surface from one day to the next. An educated guess would be that moisture content, harrow depth used, etc. vary from day to day to create differences. IOW, the surface at any given track is dynamic. It varies from one day to the next.

The few times I've walked on track surfaces it was interesting to me how they sometimes felt "different" on different days.

Can a player attach physical cause to the difference in surface from one day to the next? With a little effort: probably.

Hope I've managed to explain my thoughts in a way that makes sense.

And yes, WIND can definitely have a similar effect too.


-jp

.

[Pell Mell]

Many years ago there was a whale they called the Genius. I don't recall his real name but one of the big magazines like SI had a big article about him at one time. It featured his all glass mansion in FL.

At any rate, I watched him and his crew(he had a bunch of guys working with him) one day at GSP in NJ. They took soil samples, they had wind meters and I believe they took the temp. of the dirt in addition to the air. He left no stone unturned. It was said he was a very rich guy and made it all at the track.

If anyone knows who I'm referring to, please comment.

[born2ride]

This is pure rubbish. Put a horse in a vacuum and it suffocates and dies.

Ron Tiller
HDW
ROFLMAO! This has got to be the post of the month!

[markgoldie]

Watching races at Tampa Bay Downs over the past 2 meets a pattern I often see is horses taking an inside path on the far turn stop as soon as a competitor on the outside moves up to challenge.

Is the inside deeper and therefore more tiring? Is the inside down by the rail more steeply banked than the outside and therefore more tiring? Does the track layout cause kickback from the outside horse to strike the inside horse? Or maybe wind is the culprit... Is prevailing wind direction such that inside horses on the turn take the brunt of it while the outside horses are shielded?

I don't know the reason... I'm watching it on video from 3000 miles away. But I do know that an inside path on the turn at Tampa appears (at least to me) to be a consistently bad trip.

Let's say for the sake of argument that the inside path down by the rail on the turn happens to be deeper and more tiring than the outside. Think of what I'm trying to convey as being like sand on a beach where the sand by the water's edge is more tighly packed and therefore less tiring to run on than the sand 30 yards inland which is loose (not packed down at all) and you sink into it when you walk on it. Now put two horses of equal ability and condition side by side on the beach... one down by the waters edge and the other 30 yards inland where the footing is deeper and more tiring. Have them race 1 mile on the beach but each has to keep to its path. All other things being equal, after going about a half mile at speed the horse that's most inland will tire... and the one down by the water's edge on the better footing will start to pull away.

That's the type of surface effect I'm talking about.

Speed favoring vs. speed tiring... inside path vs outside path biases... these can vary on the same track surface from one day to the next. An educated guess would be that moisture content, harrow depth used, etc. vary from day to day to create differences. IOW, the surface at any given track is dynamic. It varies from one day to the next.

The few times I've walked on track surfaces it was interesting to me how they sometimes felt "different" on different days.

Can a player attach physical cause to the difference in surface from one day to the next? With a little effort: probably.

Hope I've managed to explain my thoughts in a way that makes sense.

And yes, WIND can definitely have a similar effect too.


-jp

.
Jeff:

The particular physical reasons for track biases are pretty much beside the point of successful handicapping. The only important thing is to either agree or disagree that they exist. I think the best players in the sport would agree that they do, although I've heard some supposedly knowledgable players say that it's basically an excuse for bad performances by horses that failed to run to expectations.

I, for one, do believe they exist and that there are two essential types of bias: (1) the overall bias related to early speed and (2) the bias due to faster portions of the track.

Unless you know exactly what to look for, the two can sometimes be confusing. On a track good for early speed, leading horses, no matter which portion of the track in which they run are very difficult to catch and make the closers' task nearly impossible. A problem which may arise under these conditions is that since front runners tend to run more or less near the rail, the condition is subject to being confused with a fast rail. However, under a fast rail condition, without an early speed bias, you will see closers advancing well along the inside. This is a subtle difference but one worth noting.

Conversely, there is a tendency to confuse a non-speed supporting track with an outside-portion bias. That's because most closers tend to go a bit wide in order to pass. But on a true non-speed supporting track, even horses making middle moves when wide will falter and closing horses will advance sharply nearer the rail.

Beyer covers all this pretty well in a couple of his books and in a chapter of a compendium called "Bet With The Best." Naturally, keeping up with these conditions requires a great deal of work, partucularly because they do not arise very often and the main wagering advantage is found when the conditions change. For example, if a track always features a fast rail, it doesn't take long for the bettors to figure out that inside posts and speed horses who can cross over to the inside have a strong advantage.

One of the arguments for synth tracks is that they require less banking and therefore drainage does not create inside/outside biases. However, in my experience, this hasn't led to any greater consistency of racing on synth surfaces.

[Hanover1]

Horsemen know how a track plays on any given day. So imo that removes a "variable", as adjustments are made. Track surfaces are familiar to us as well. For example a particular turn may be deeper, or faster that another, thus removing another variable for us. An off track may drain or dry different from another, and the fast lane is something that becomes knowledge, thus removing another variable. Wind issues are a matter of how a particular horse can endure taking alot of air vs needing cover in such situation, thus removing yet another variable. In short, this info, for the most part negates any guesswork on the part of the trainer. I suppose the bettors do not have the methods available to them to obtain this info on a firsthand basis, thus the question by the poster. Given the above info, it becomes clear that my previous post holds water. Best to hook up with those on the inside that have credible stats behind them in order to gather valuable insight into the handicapping process. Do not sell the trainer short in this regard, even as much as many are better than others when it comes to reading these factors. Just a tip for you bettors that should serve you well...... ;)

[Robert Goren]

The problem with things like a closers rail bias is that you got to have a jockey who knows about it. The nice thing about a front runner bias is all the jockey has to do is hang on.

[bisket]

most times the jockey and track condition.

[Tom]

Horsemen know how a track plays on any given day. So imo that removes a "variable", as adjustments are made. Track surfaces are familiar to us as well. For example a particular turn may be deeper, or faster that another, thus removing another variable for us. An off track may drain or dry different from another, and the fast lane is something that becomes knowledge, thus removing another variable. Wind issues are a matter of how a particular horse can endure taking alot of air vs needing cover in such situation, thus removing yet another variable. In short, this info, for the most part negates any guesswork on the part of the trainer. I suppose the bettors do not have the methods available to them to obtain this info on a firsthand basis, thus the question by the poster. Given the above info, it becomes clear that my previous post holds water. Best to hook up with those on the inside that have credible stats behind them in order to gather valuable insight into the handicapping process. Do not sell the trainer short in this regard, even as much as many are better than others when it comes to reading these factors. Just a tip for you bettors that should serve you well...... ;)

How does knowing these things remove them as a variable? Can you quantify them?

[bisket]

Horsemen know how a track plays on any given day. So imo that removes a "variable", as adjustments are made. Track surfaces are familiar to us as well. For example a particular turn may be deeper, or faster that another, thus removing another variable for us. An off track may drain or dry different from another, and the fast lane is something that becomes knowledge, thus removing another variable. Wind issues are a matter of how a particular horse can endure taking alot of air vs needing cover in such situation, thus removing yet another variable. In short, this info, for the most part negates any guesswork on the part of the trainer. I suppose the bettors do not have the methods available to them to obtain this info on a firsthand basis, thus the question by the poster. Given the above info, it becomes clear that my previous post holds water. Best to hook up with those on the inside that have credible stats behind them in order to gather valuable insight into the handicapping process. Do not sell the trainer short in this regard, even as much as many are better than others when it comes to reading these factors. Just a tip for you bettors that should serve you well...... ;)
there is alot of fact in this post, but its dangerous ground for the bettor. this is why i don't think its wise to include things like track bias, wind speed, etc. in speed figures. its very subjective as to how they actually affect a horses figure, and can change from day to day or from race to race even. good personal notes are the best way to attack these things. the best handicappers use their experience and general knowledge to make notes on these variables because the amount of weight to give them can differ from one situation to the next.

[thaskalos]

Horsemen know how a track plays on any given day. So imo that removes a "variable", as adjustments are made. Track surfaces are familiar to us as well. For example a particular turn may be deeper, or faster that another, thus removing another variable for us. An off track may drain or dry different from another, and the fast lane is something that becomes knowledge, thus removing another variable. Wind issues are a matter of how a particular horse can endure taking alot of air vs needing cover in such situation, thus removing yet another variable. In short, this info, for the most part negates any guesswork on the part of the trainer. I suppose the bettors do not have the methods available to them to obtain this info on a firsthand basis, thus the question by the poster. Given the above info, it becomes clear that my previous post holds water. Best to hook up with those on the inside that have credible stats behind them in order to gather valuable insight into the handicapping process. Do not sell the trainer short in this regard, even as much as many are better than others when it comes to reading these factors. Just a tip for you bettors that should serve you well...... ;) If the horsemen possess all this "valuable insight into the handicapping process", why aren't they more successful with their betting? Or their touting for that matter...?

[Show Me the Wire]

If the horsemen possess all this "valuable insight into the handicapping process", why aren't they more successful with their betting? Or their touting for that matter...?


All horse people are not equal. Not all have the same knowledge. You would be surprised how many of the top horsemen and owners cash big time at the windows. Information is knowledge and it is knowledge an outsider doesn't have.

Also, understanding the race is a competition and other horsemen are trying to win too, your plans may not pan out as the competitor may beat you to the preferred bias, due to racing luck.

[Hanover1]

How does knowing these things remove them as a variable? Can you quantify them?
They are not seen as variables from my vantage point, but factors. It may be a matter of sematics for us at this point? We are both clear on how they play........My job is to prepare for the factors, a bettor must select a winner using these factors...we both want to achieve the same result.? We often drift away with the word game, but often see the same picture. ;)

[Hanover1]

If the horsemen possess all this "valuable insight into the handicapping process", why aren't they more successful with their betting? Or their touting for that matter...?
The most you will ever get out of me is akin to: "We like our chances today, lets race them and see" We have also learned that habitual betting by a horseman is not wise....we are considering a good year at a 20% on the board rate for the year. Do you like those odds at the window, knowing you stand an 80% chance of an off the board effort? In short, we are not professional bettors, but horsemen who understand what 20% means...

[tribecaagent]

Have we forgotten optimal conditions regarding trip?

Look, wind is certainly a facor but what about 1) lone speed, 2) lone stalker, 3) riding the crest of a bias, etc.

These things certainly contribute to a horse running faster.

[Hanover1]

Have we forgotten optimal conditions regarding trip?

Look, wind is certainly a facor but what about 1) lone speed, 2) lone stalker, 3) riding the crest of a bias, etc.

These things certainly contribute to a horse running faster.
I understand what you are saying here. Can you convince my whole barn, particularly the colt I have up by the office?

[tribecaagent]

I can't but perhaps you can. Short, three furlong breezes should teach him to go to the lead. Perhaps a brand new pair of blinkers for the nervous types. Then tell the jock to get him out, over to the rail, and don't look back.

[Hanover1]

I can't but perhaps you can. Short, three furlong breezes should teach him to go to the lead. Perhaps a brand new pair of blinkers for the nervous types. Then tell the jock to get him out, over to the rail, and don't look back.
Im good-he is lazy, and that is my excuse...One of my boys nicknames is Ray-O-Vac. We got him covered.... ;)

[Cratos]

And when you come to the wrong conclusion with your variables, that is absolute failure......

Wrong again, it is just a conclusion;check out predictive statistics

[Cratos]

Watching races at Tampa Bay Downs over the past 2 meets a pattern I often see is horses taking an inside path on the far turn stop as soon as a competitor on the outside moves up to challenge.

Is the inside deeper and therefore more tiring? Is the inside down by the rail more steeply banked than the outside and therefore more tiring? Does the track layout cause kickback from the outside horse to strike the inside horse? Or maybe wind is the culprit... Is prevailing wind direction such that inside horses on the turn take the brunt of it while the outside horses are shielded?

I don't know the reason... I'm watching it on video from 3000 miles away. But I do know that an inside path on the turn at Tampa appears (at least to me) to be a consistently bad trip.

Let's say for the sake of argument that the inside path down by the rail on the turn happens to be deeper and more tiring than the outside. Think of what I'm trying to convey as being like sand on a beach where the sand by the water's edge is more tighly packed and therefore less tiring to run on than the sand 30 yards inland which is loose (not packed down at all) and you sink into it when you walk on it. Now put two horses of equal ability and condition side by side on the beach... one down by the waters edge and the other 30 yards inland where the footing is deeper and more tiring. Have them race 1 mile on the beach but each has to keep to its path. All other things being equal, after going about a half mile at speed the horse that's most inland will tire... and the one down by the water's edge on the better footing will start to pull away.

That's the type of surface effect I'm talking about.

Speed favoring vs. speed tiring... inside path vs outside path biases... these can vary on the same track surface from one day to the next. An educated guess would be that moisture content, harrow depth used, etc. vary from day to day to create differences. IOW, the surface at any given track is dynamic. It varies from one day to the next.

The few times I've walked on track surfaces it was interesting to me how they sometimes felt "different" on different days.

Can a player attach physical cause to the difference in surface from one day to the next? With a little effort: probably.

Hope I've managed to explain my thoughts in a way that makes sense.

And yes, WIND can definitely have a similar effect too.


-jp

.

You have succinctly explained your thought process and I am grateful, but what you have explained is the change to the track surface due to external factors; without them the surface remains static.

But let’s use the following definition from Webster for “dynamic” and I think there will be clarity. Webster defines dynamic in part as: “characterized by energy or effective action” A track surface has neither in terms of characterization, but wind force has both.

[Tom]

The surface is static until something changes it. All tracks are outdoors and all tacks get affected by things. Sun, rain, maintenance. No tracks remains static because dynamic forces are always at work on them. And wind cannot be measured, so it is a t best a guess, unless you have accurate equipment on track. You never know how fast the wind was a specific second during a race.

Track surface characteristics are a result of other events.

[Charlie D]

Nick Mordin had trouble with wind i blieve.

[Tom]

There is always Bean-O.

[Charlie D]

Timeform use Vector analysis


http://www.timeform.com/show_article.asp?num=1101



The ‘Going’
Race times are, of course, greatly affected by the state of the going. Really heavy ground can add as much as ten seconds to the time horses are capable of recording over five furlongs (though racing is usually abandoned when the conditions are as bad as that). The problem is not to be solved by the use of estimated per-furlong going allowances. Walking-stick or heel-digging guesswork is far too much of a hit-or-miss business to be of much use, though the occasional use of penetrometers may prove to be a step in the right direction. However, given an accurate set of standard times and six or seven races on a course on one day, of which at least four are contested by horses of established merit, there is usually ample time data for a mathematical solution to be obtained. We deal with it in that way. Of course rain during racing complicates matters, but in the light of many years' experience that too can generally be compensated for, though not always.



Wind Strength & Direction
Race times are also very much affected by the strength and direction of the wind prevailing during racing. A wind behind in the straight will assist the runners throughout in all races run on the straight course, but will be adverse to the runners for part of the way in races run on the round track. The times of straight races will be speeded up, but the precise effect upon the times of races run on the round track will depend upon their distances and starting points. Considering the unusual layout of some of the courses in Britain, and remembering that the wind may blow at any strength from any point of the compass, it might be thought that the problem is an intractable one. Nevertheless it can normally be handled quite satisfactorily by vector analysis, provided the direction of the wind is known, conditions do not vary during racing and sufficient data is available. A 10-knot wind makes a great deal of difference to race times, so it is important always to have reliable information as to wind strength and direction, direction particularly. Timeform sees that accurate information is obtained.

[Granite]

All of that is fine and dandy, but if my horse doesn't feel good today, he isn't going to run any where near his best speed figure. Does he gave 4 legs? Is he walking short? etc.

[Charlie D]

If you know your horse does not feel good Granite , you should maybe not be racing it.

[Granite]

If you know your horse does not feel good Granite , you should maybe not be racing it.

Perhaps? However, as humans, we don't always know until after the racing is done.

[Charlie D]

Perhaps? However, as humans, we don't always know until after the racing is done.


Agree with that Granite. No one to my knowing can see into future.

[Cratos]

Timeform use Vector analysis


http://www.timeform.com/show_article.asp?num=1101



The ‘Going’
Race times are, of course, greatly affected by the state of the going. Really heavy ground can add as much as ten seconds to the time horses are capable of recording over five furlongs (though racing is usually abandoned when the conditions are as bad as that). The problem is not to be solved by the use of estimated per-furlong going allowances. Walking-stick or heel-digging guesswork is far too much of a hit-or-miss business to be of much use, though the occasional use of penetrometers may prove to be a step in the right direction. However, given an accurate set of standard times and six or seven races on a course on one day, of which at least four are contested by horses of established merit, there is usually ample time data for a mathematical solution to be obtained. We deal with it in that way. Of course rain during racing complicates matters, but in the light of many years' experience that too can generally be compensated for, though not always.



Wind Strength & Direction
Race times are also very much affected by the strength and direction of the wind prevailing during racing. A wind behind in the straight will assist the runners throughout in all races run on the straight course, but will be adverse to the runners for part of the way in races run on the round track. The times of straight races will be speeded up, but the precise effect upon the times of races run on the round track will depend upon their distances and starting points. Considering the unusual layout of some of the courses in Britain, and remembering that the wind may blow at any strength from any point of the compass, it might be thought that the problem is an intractable one. Nevertheless it can normally be handled quite satisfactorily by vector analysis, provided the direction of the wind is known, conditions do not vary during racing and sufficient data is available. A 10-knot wind makes a great deal of difference to race times, so it is important always to have reliable information as to wind strength and direction, direction particularly. Timeform sees that accurate information is obtained.

As you might have realized by now, I am Phil Bull-ian

[Charlie D]

As you might have realized by now, I am Phil Bull-ian



If i remember correctly Cratos. You did state your were a fan/follower of his methodology in another thread.

[gm10]

Much has been said and published about what factor(s) that retards or enhance the speed of the racehorse.

Beyond any doubt the primary factor is wind velocity and the direction of that velocity.

The basic reason is the wind force and the dynamics of the force of the horse coming together. This impact can best understood by vector analysis and aerodynamics.

Put a horse in a vacuum on a “perfect” surface and given it is in optimal physical condition running at its optimal distance limitation; it will run to its optimal speed limitations.

Put that same horse on a perfect race track at the same distance with a wind force and no matter its optimal physical condition its speed will be either enhanced or retarded depending on the wind force and its direction.

Racetrack surfaces are static and typically act as resistance barriers to a horse’s speed and if calculus integration is done the horse in optimal physical condition approaches its best innate speed as the surface approaches zero (optimality); as the surface moves away from zero, no matter the horse’s optimal physical condition, it will typically not run at its optimal speed (it will run either faster or slower).

You're right from a physics point of view, but you are ignoring the bio-energetic aspect. Each horse has its own anaerobic and aerobic capacity, and that, as a function of distance, will determine what speed the horse can achieve.

[Hanover1]

Wrong again, it is just a conclusion;check out predictive statistics
I have discussed your heady explainations of theory and handicapping to my horses. Not a one of them replied. Nor did I get any assurance of a victory next outing either :ThmbDown:

[Bettowin]

Cratos = Sheldon

If you are confused watch The Big Bang Theory on Monday nights.

[Cratos]

I have discussed your heady explainations of theory and handicapping to my horses. Not a one of them replied. Nor did I get any assurance of a victory next outing either :ThmbDown:

I am truly sorry; maybe after they think about it more and the weather get a bit warmer, you and your horses will be in the winner's circle.

[Cratos]

Cratos = Sheldon

If you are confused watch The Big Bang Theory on Monday nights.

Am I like the following; gee I hope not, but I do like the challenges of math, physics, and statistics when applied to handicapping racehorses.

“Sheldon has common qualities associated with being a prodigy, such as an inflated ego, social ineptness, and an inability to identify emotionally with others.

He fails to understand not only the simplest sarcastic jokes made by Leonard, but also regards Penny's sadness over her break up with blatant disgust.

That isn't to say Sheldon doesn't have a conscience; he's simply more likely to do what's scientifically ethical (not donate to a "high IQ sperm bank" because his sperm won't guarantee high IQ offspring) rather than morally and socially ethical (break into Penny's home to organize her things”

[Cratos]

You're right from a physics point of view, but you are ignoring the bio-energetic aspect. Each horse has its own anaerobic and aerobic capacity, and that, as a function of distance, will determine what speed the horse can achieve.

I find it difficult to understand how bioenergetics applies to the performance of a race horse because if I am correct, bioenergetics is based upon the continuity between body and mind.

At which point in the race does a horse’s anaerobic capacity come into play?

However I do agree that the horse’s aerobic capacity is very instrumental to its performance.