Stillriledup
03-28-2010, 03:56 AM
I used to think that the horseplayers in NY and on the east coast were the smartest, but now, i think that the money in the California pools is just smarter, i think there's less value.
Almost every really smart horseplayer who lives on the west coast is following the So Cal thoroughbred circuit. On the east coast, not every smart horseplayer is following NYRA. There are a bunch of tracks within a 5 hour drive of the NYC metro area and i think that not every expert is concentrating on one track, like the NYRA tracks for example.
Also, So Cal has a million clockers who are all selling clocking information, ya know, pointing you to the winners. I'm not sure there are quality clockers who are selling tip sheets for NYRA? To tell you the truth, i don't know if any other tracks beside the So Cal tracks actually sell quality clocker information.
Also, right now in time, there are a few trainers who are dominating So Cal racing, and those barns are really in the pipeline to know which horses are 'plugged in' and which are not. I think that in So Cal, there is more money that's coming from the 'inside' that anywhere else. I think that if these trainers are not betting themselves, they're giving amazing information to HUGE bettors who are capitalizing on that info. The pools in California are not nearly as big as they used to be and i think the people who have left are the fish. The whales and experts have stayed, and the suckers have all gone away, making it just that much tougher to get a speck of value anywhere.
Even the public handicapper for DRF, Brad Free, seems to do more work than the average analyst, he'll come up with things that other public selectors won't mention. If there's a good looking 6-1 morning line horse that has a troubled trip, Free will mention that the horse looked great galloping out and whatnut. Other handicappers, like Chuck Dybdal at Golden Gate will just pick Russel Baze on the even money shot and tell you its a good pick because it has Russel and looks good on paper. Free will go deeper and do more work and will identify little nuggets on occasion that people who work 9 to 5 won't be able to identify because, well, they work for a living and don't have the man power hours to sniff out.
The jock colony in So Cal is also 'closed'. You have two or three riders who are riding favorites for the 'plugged in' trainers, you have very few (if any) new, fresh apprentice riders who are getting quality mounts, so jockey information also is of big importance to the 'inside' bettors. If two top jocks are riding co favorites and it looks like a 2 horse race on paper, there's an impossibly huge edge to know if one of these guys feels strongly that he's on a deep closer and is going to be 9 lengths behind entering the stretch. Ya know, nothing dishonest ( :rolleyes: ) or anything, just an edge that one horse might be better than the other. I think because tracks like Gulfstream, Belmont, Keeneland, etc have many shippers, different trainers, jocks shuttling in and out, makes there just be more value because you can't really get a handle on things all the time. In So Cal, its easier (for the insiders) to get a handle on certain things better than they could at these other places.
I just think in general, the familiarity that everyone has with each other in So Cal makes it much tougher to beat the game out there.
If anyone has any ideas as to why So Cal is not as hard as some of the other major tracks, i'd love to hear about it.
Almost every really smart horseplayer who lives on the west coast is following the So Cal thoroughbred circuit. On the east coast, not every smart horseplayer is following NYRA. There are a bunch of tracks within a 5 hour drive of the NYC metro area and i think that not every expert is concentrating on one track, like the NYRA tracks for example.
Also, So Cal has a million clockers who are all selling clocking information, ya know, pointing you to the winners. I'm not sure there are quality clockers who are selling tip sheets for NYRA? To tell you the truth, i don't know if any other tracks beside the So Cal tracks actually sell quality clocker information.
Also, right now in time, there are a few trainers who are dominating So Cal racing, and those barns are really in the pipeline to know which horses are 'plugged in' and which are not. I think that in So Cal, there is more money that's coming from the 'inside' that anywhere else. I think that if these trainers are not betting themselves, they're giving amazing information to HUGE bettors who are capitalizing on that info. The pools in California are not nearly as big as they used to be and i think the people who have left are the fish. The whales and experts have stayed, and the suckers have all gone away, making it just that much tougher to get a speck of value anywhere.
Even the public handicapper for DRF, Brad Free, seems to do more work than the average analyst, he'll come up with things that other public selectors won't mention. If there's a good looking 6-1 morning line horse that has a troubled trip, Free will mention that the horse looked great galloping out and whatnut. Other handicappers, like Chuck Dybdal at Golden Gate will just pick Russel Baze on the even money shot and tell you its a good pick because it has Russel and looks good on paper. Free will go deeper and do more work and will identify little nuggets on occasion that people who work 9 to 5 won't be able to identify because, well, they work for a living and don't have the man power hours to sniff out.
The jock colony in So Cal is also 'closed'. You have two or three riders who are riding favorites for the 'plugged in' trainers, you have very few (if any) new, fresh apprentice riders who are getting quality mounts, so jockey information also is of big importance to the 'inside' bettors. If two top jocks are riding co favorites and it looks like a 2 horse race on paper, there's an impossibly huge edge to know if one of these guys feels strongly that he's on a deep closer and is going to be 9 lengths behind entering the stretch. Ya know, nothing dishonest ( :rolleyes: ) or anything, just an edge that one horse might be better than the other. I think because tracks like Gulfstream, Belmont, Keeneland, etc have many shippers, different trainers, jocks shuttling in and out, makes there just be more value because you can't really get a handle on things all the time. In So Cal, its easier (for the insiders) to get a handle on certain things better than they could at these other places.
I just think in general, the familiarity that everyone has with each other in So Cal makes it much tougher to beat the game out there.
If anyone has any ideas as to why So Cal is not as hard as some of the other major tracks, i'd love to hear about it.