Sunland Derby

[OFFandRUNNING10]

Didn't see any threads about this so I thought I would fire one up and get some peoples thoughts...

Conveyance clearly looks like the one to beat here. Hes got the speed and is a perfect 4-4. However, I think he could be a bit vulnerable here. He set a pretty quick early fraction to get up out front from the outside post and experienced a pretty comfortable trip from there.

I think he gets a similar comfortable lead here but gets caught late in the stretch. I would look to Storming Saint, Nachos Friend and Tempted to Tapit to accomplish that.

Tapit will likely be right on the heels of Conveyance just like he was Discreetly Mine last time out and will be in good position to make his run. He certainly has the speed to stay up on Conveyance and the extra distance should help him.

Storming Saint chased a slow pace and closed well for the win. Seems to be moving in the right direction leading up to this race and is 2 for 2 around 2 turns. Not sure he is good enough to win this but can definitely see him in the exotics.

Nachos Friend ran very well stretching out after coming off an extended layoff. He was training pretty well leading up to that race and seems to have continued that coming up to this one. Should be in good position stalking the pace here as well.

What do you all think?

[Market Mover]

The thought here is that they all know they will be running for second if they let Conveyance get a :47 or :48 half.
Garcia is no stranger to going too fast too early (consult his longshot rides at SA on Saturday). I believe they will press him up front. He still might be good to win, but this Indian Charlie colt knows one way to go and that's very fast very early.
It's funny how a speed horse like The Pamplemousse gets hyped up for winning on synthetic, and then Conveyance does it in similar style, ships out east to Oaklawn, does it again on dirt, and now he still gets hammered for being a speed freak and nothing more.
If he does not beat these, he does not belong in the Derby. Baffert knows that. He's second string to Lucky, but Baffert's second strings have won before (look at '98).
There are no world beaters in this year's Derby crop. Why not settle on a horse that will be in front when they hit the quarter pole? (aka War Emblem)

[Stillriledup]

Anyone know about track biases at Sun? Can speed hold, or have closers been winning?

[redtick79]

Tempted to Tapit has the form and the running style to give Conveyance all he wants. Tempted to Tapit gets him deep in the stretch.

[SmartyLane]

Conveyance last two races at 1 mile, he won't win here at 1-1/8

[toetoe]

this Indian Charlie colt knows one way to go and that's very fast very early.








He's just naturally swift, but I think he can race covered up and still win. The distance questions remain, of course. I would like to see two rivals outsprint him; then we might see what he's made of. :) .

[only11]

I'll endorse ENDORSEMENT...

[WinterTriangle]

Storming Saint looks like he'll wake up the longer he goes. Next best horse Endorsement, working bullets. I saw Conveyance in the Southwest, and he was starting to tire at a mile, but he was being pressured by Dryfly and Cool, but still tough to go against, so:

Storming Saint/Conveyance/Endorsement box


If playing a super vertical, add Classical Slew and Nacho. I love the breeding on CS, but dunno how he'll do on dirt and he's never raced a route. TTT seemed to do well on speedy AQ and GS tracks, but Laus Deo and Schoolyard both beat him at Phil. I think he wearies here. Nacho Friend lost ground in last race, and lost to Backtalk before that. If playing deep super, I'd put in Guilt by Association.

[JustRalph]

What the hell is Doug O'neill doing with Classical Slew? Why is he in there?

never been on real dirt? This one looks fishy to me..........

O'neill ??? who knows?

[WinterTriangle]

What the hell is Doug O'neill doing with Classical Slew? Why is he in there?

never been on real dirt? This one looks fishy to me..........

O'neill ??? who knows?

I know, but top shelf pedigree, good foundation, and better stamina index than conveyence or nacho friend.

I was eying this one a while back wondering if he would be in the derby.

Never routed, never on dirt, so yeah, it could go any way. He has the goods but only on theoreticals.

[WinterTriangle]

for the curious, I'll add a bit more on Classical Slew here.

Bernstein progeny also includes a number of Dual Qualifiers, like Make Music for Me, Dream Express and Doremifasollatido, as well as West Side Bernie.

ND/BR sire and dam's sire lines, dam's sire Seattle Slew. 10.5% progeny open stakes wins at classic distances of 9.5, 10 and 12F on dam'sire side, experimental free handicap weight 105 (around what Soaring Empire is). Bernstein's AWD looks to be up to 7F but damsire's is much higher 8F+ (brisnet PPs have that side down wrong, btw dunno where they got their figs.) Dosage stuff within the realm 5-2-9-2-0 1.77 0.56
and Bejarano rides him in CA, which is a plus if he went to derby. :)

Codoy is also a Bernstein/ND, West Side Bernie, etc.

[BombsAway Bob]

Free DRF Formulator PP's & Video Analysis for the Sunland Derby
~ 12th race~ http://www.drf.com/video/rod.html (http://www.drf.com/video/rod.html)
7:45PM/ET est.post

[WinterTriangle]

Smarty Lane, ya was right, and Only, looks like we both called it with Endorsement. :ThmbUp: (Hope ya played my exacta box.)

I was thinking in that NM environment, conveyance might be gasping at 1-1/8

[jldonah]

(i'm talking to my money).
Good play to you both!
I thought Conveyance could be beat (my picks were Classical Slew and Tempted to Tapit), but I sure skipped over Informed.:confused:

[Tom]

Smarty Lane, ya was right, and Only, looks like we both called it with Endorsement. :ThmbUp: (Hope ya played my exacta box.)

I was thinking in that NM environment, conveyance might be gasping at 1-1/8

Nice roll yer on! :ThmbUp:

[WinterTriangle]

j---can't fault you on Classical.

I don't get the Tempted to Tapit love.:confused: I've dislike TTT , he's 3rd tier "distant possibilities" in my March Derby list. I couldn't find anything to like about him as I anticipated longer races.

He won one race at a mile at AQ (against nobodies).

Before that, Schoolyard and Laos Deo both kicked his butt.

His only claim to fame is 2nd to Discreetly at only 1-1/16 (and if Northern Giant hadn't had to go wide, he would have been 3rd). And after DMs race yesterday, coming 2nd to him isn't a big rah rah.

Nice horse with seconditis. Pretty, though.

[OFFandRUNNING10]

I'll endorse ENDORSEMENT...

nice endorsement

[OFFandRUNNING10]

I really thought endorsement or tapit would apply some more pressure to conveyance. He got away with a pretty pedestrian like pace. Props to albarado for having confidence in endorsement to lay off and not get into an early duel. he clearly had enough faith in him that he would have enough horse left to out run conveyance turning for home.

The slow pace pretty much killed any closing chances for the other horses. Hard to run down two strong horses when outfront turning for home like that coming off those calls.

top 3 finishers ran 1-2-3 all the way around.

[Wickel]

I really thought endorsement or tapit would apply some more pressure to conveyance. He got away with a pretty pedestrian like pace. Props to albarado for having confidence in endorsement to lay off and not get into an early duel. he clearly had enough faith in him that he would have enough horse left to out run conveyance turning for home.

The slow pace pretty much killed any closing chances for the other horses. Hard to run down two strong horses when outfront turning for home like that coming off those calls.

top 3 finishers ran 1-2-3 all the way around.

I also thought Tempted to Tapit would be closer to the pace. Cohen was asleep at the wheel when the gate opened. Got a sluggish start, had to take back a bit and never recovered. He needed to gun Tapit from the get-go to have a shot IMO.

[onefast99]

I loved Breens pre-race interview on TVG said Nacho was ready and the race sets up for them. Also commented on how the California horse ran a 26 closing quarter last time and they should be "right there". They did get 32k for finishing 5th which pays for their trip there.