can you make money betting to SHOW

[GreenPlant]

Can you make momey (long term) betting to show? What if you only bet horses like Zenyata or Rachel to show? I know you would have to win 20 out of 21 to break even.(When they pay $2.10) Do you think you could hit 99 out of 100 show bets on quality horses over a long period of time?

[Stillriledup]

No, you aren't going to hit 99 out of 100 of anything.

Also, i think that one of the biggest problems with these types of bets is the idea that a player is winning 'free money'. Once the 'free money' thing gets in your head, i don't believe too many players are going to be able to just stick with the Rachel's and the Zenyattas.

I also think that betting Rachel or Z or any other grade 1 monster-type horse to show is dangerous because their competition is so strong. As great as Rachel or Z is, they are running in grade 1 races, usually against fields of 6 or more, and their competition is so strong that they have to run at least their B minus race to hit the board.

I think the best way to make money betting show is to bet against horses with a few hundred grand on them. I'd recommend betting against them than betting ON them.

[trying2win]

Can you make momey (long term) betting to show? What if you only bet horses like Zenyata or Rachel to show? I know you would have to win 20 out of 21 to break even.(When they pay $2.10) Do you think you could hit 99 out of 100 show bets on quality horses over a long period of time?

Well, if a person is going to attempt the feat of trying to make a profit by betting to show over a season, then they might as well try doing that at HASTINGS PARK. Over the past two seasons, Hastings Park has had an experiment of offering show wagering on their races with a 12 % takeout rate. If one is thinking of show betting at this track in 2010, then they should contact the parimutuel department first to see if the 12 % takeout rate will still be in effect this year.

One more good thing if the Hastings Park show takeout continues this year at 12 %, is that Canadian tracks employ only nickel breakage, compared to the outrageous dime breakage of most American tracks.

T2W

[Tex9Down]

In Brad Free's book Handicapping 101 He says "Wagering to place and show is futile. and beginning horseplayers would do themselves a favor by forsaking these bets all together."

If all you want to do is cash tickets, I suppose you can. But it's a loser bet in the long run. And how many Rachel and Zenyatta races run every day? Not many, and nothing is a sure thing. You are better off betting a win bet and cheering your horse on at the rail to win!

I'm a mutual teller (bet taker) at a lesser track with many unexperienced bettors. I take many place and show bets all the time. All they want is to cash a winning ticket.

Don't do it! Bet to WIN! (or exotics)

Just my opinion........Good Luck!

[ranchwest]

Playing Zenyatta types is futile. Getting rich one dime at a time is one of the most unlikely scenarios imaginable.

If you're going to bet to show, go the other way. There are situations where longshots are likely to finish in the money with the favorite out of the money. Of course, if you knew how to do that, you probably wouldn't be asking this question. It isn't easy.

[therussmeister]

I play show bets with the profits going to charity. So far I have been profitable, and have been doing it long enough that I would be very surprised if I stopped making money.

I look for a minimum $3.00 payoff. I do this by using an online tote and having the pools displayed as percentages. My bread and butter bet is the trifecta; after deciding on my trifecta bet I take a quick glance at the show pools of my key horses. 15% will almost always get at least a $3.00 return.

I guess I am a better handicapper than Brad Free. :rolleyes:

[JohnGalt1]

More than on other bets, breakage on show will kill you.

[Robert Goren]

More than on other bets, breakage on show will kill you.:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[GaryG]

Anyone who can make money with show bets is a first class handicapper. If you are that good you sure as hell don't need the show pool.

[Johnny V]

I think betting like that I would just be spinning my wheels at best betting those heavy favorite quality horses to show. I know that there is no way I could hit 99 out of a 100 of those kinds of races. There aren't enough of them and just waiting around and betting that way would be a very boring thing for me.

[lamboguy]

More than on other bets, breakage on show will kill you.
its the worst, unless you are playing strickly minus pools where there is never any breakage lost. on or against bridgejumping represents the best value in all of racing. the way things are today, there are lots of mistakes in the highly bet minus pool bets. its alot more than years ago. minus pool bettors were better 40 years ago before pace and byer numbers even existed.

[Stillriledup]

I play show bets with the profits going to charity. So far I have been profitable, and have been doing it long enough that I would be very surprised if I stopped making money.

I look for a minimum $3.00 payoff. I do this by using an online tote and having the pools displayed as percentages. My bread and butter bet is the trifecta; after deciding on my trifecta bet I take a quick glance at the show pools of my key horses. 15% will almost always get at least a $3.00 return.

I guess I am a better handicapper than Brad Free. :rolleyes:

Nobody knows more than Brad Free. Just ask him.

[Market Mover]

which online tote displays the mutuel pool totals as percentages?

[GameTheory]

which online tote displays the mutuel pool totals as percentages?TwinSpires has that option. BRIS supertote as well (it's the same thing).

[Robert Goren]

Unless you have a very unusual method of picking horses, it is generally assumed that if you can make money betting show tickets, you will make more betting win tickets if for no other reason than the breakage factor. The exception being betting against the bridge jumpers. It maybe possible that you may find other inequalities in show pool, but so much late money makes it hard to take advantage of.JMO

[dav4463]

I don't bet to show, but I do bet to place. I play longshots and the place bet outperforms win bets often enough to keep me doing it. It's tough to go 0 for 25 betting longshots to win, but it can and does happen. However, if five or six of those close losses turn into double digit place payoffs, it makes playing a lot more fun (and profitable).

[CBedo]

Betting "sure thing" types to show, no matter the quality of the race, is usually not a long term road to profits. Betting against them when there are bridge jumpers present has some possibilities.

Overall, I think breakage and late odds changes makes the show bet in general a tough nut to crack, but I refuse to say "never."

[jasperson]

Dr. Can you make momey (long term) betting to show? What if you only bet horses like Zenyata or Rachel to show? I know you would have to win 20 out of 21 to break even.(When they pay $2.10) Do you think you could hit 99 out of 100 show bets on quality horses over a long period of time?
I suggest you get "Dr. Z's Beat the race track". He has a system for calculating when the place and show pools are under bet and should be profitable in the long run. In his system you only bet the favorite and then only if the place or show pool is under bet. To use this system you must be at the track to have access to the win,place and show pools. I never check out his program because at that time I was near a handy race track. Lad was 180 miles away.

[pandy]

It's tough but perhaps 3 horse show parlays or something like that, I've never tried it.

[GameTheory]

Dr.
I suggest you get "Dr. Z's Beat the race track". He has a system for calculating when the place and show pools are under bet and should be profitable in the long run. In his system you only bet the favorite and then only if the place or show pool is under bet. To use this system you must be at the track to have access to the win,place and show pools. I never check out his program because at that time I was near a handy race track. Lad was 180 miles away.You've got access to those pools with any ADW. Problem is in either case all the late money changes all the percentages after it is too late...

[Robert Goren]

You've got access to those pools with any ADW. Problem is in either case all the late money changes all the percentages after it is too late...:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: I know because I just recently looked at Dr Z's methods. If you think the late money is screwing up the win pools, take a look at show pools. It is amazing how much of that money is late.

[green80]

I agree, this system made money back in the 80's but now too much money comes in late that will change the percentages dramatically. The horse with 15% of the show pool may have 25% after the bell.

[green80]

But to answer your question, I still make money on show bets. It is usually on horses that go off at 5/2 - 6/1 odds in large fields. It takes over a 60 % hit rate with horses that pay 3.20 -4.00 show prices. If you are good you can grind out about 10% roi.

[jasperson]

You've got access to those pools with any ADW. Problem is in either case all the late money changes all the percentages after it is too late...
Thanks for the input I was thinking about giving it a try now. This will save my and exercise in futility.:)

[markgoldie]

But to answer your question, I still make money on show bets. It is usually on horses that go off at 5/2 - 6/1 odds in large fields. It takes over a 60 % hit rate with horses that pay 3.20 -4.00 show prices. If you are good you can grind out about 10% roi.
Let me first say that I would never, ever doubt anything that is said by an illustrious member of our forum.

However, I will say this: If you have a 60%+ strike rate with 5/2 - 6-1 animals in large fields, you are leaving a HUGE amount of money on the table by collecting a 10% profit on show wagers. The correct way to exploit this tremendous handicapping talent would be to use the selected animals as "key" horses in trifecta wagers, or better yet, as a "key" in the first three positions of a superfecta wager.

And, as I have mentioned in the past, the correct ticket construction involves using a targeted pyramid based on your handicapping assessment of the individual event. This means that even with using the key horse, you do not use all playable animals in all positions. A typical superfecta pyramid in a 10 horse field would look something like this:

K/ 12345/123456/1234567
1234/K/123456/1234567
1234/12345/K/1234567

Here, you are eliminating only two horses from the gimmick. Five of the horses may appear in the win position (K+1234). Six may appear as high as the second spot (K+12345), seven as high as the third and fourth spots (K+123456 in the third, and 1234567 in the fourth).

The cost of the tickets for a $1 punch is $285. The strike rate for the underneath players should be in the 65% range with proper handicapping. That makes the overall strike rate approximately 39% (60% x 65%). The average payoff for a winning ticket should be a mimimum of $1000, representing an average payout per wager of $390 and based on a $285 investment, the ROI would be +36.8%, which is 3.6 times the quoted show ROI. In addition, if you are receiving rebates, the superfecta rate is far higher than the show rate (generally more than double). And finally, because of the enormous differences in pool sizes and the effects of a scattered $285 investment vs., say, $285 to show on a particular horse, the opportunity for bet escalation by playing the gimmick is huge.

In short, if you can demonstrate the particular ability you have mentioned over a large sample of races, you are wasting you extraordinary talent in the wrong way.

[classhandicapper]

I never did any research on show betting, but you can definitely make money betting to place. In fact, I think place betting is still a pretty good approach, though not not nearly as lucrative as it was a few years ago when the take in NY was lower and they didn't use Net Pool Pricing.

[Track Collector]

Can a person make money (long-term) to show? Absolutely.

The real question is can a person do it and make significant money. (Of course, significant money is a subjective term and will differ from person to person.). I would not surprise me to find someone who makes $20 unit wagers on a select few number of races and earns $1000 per year. On the other hand, and while I would not say that it is impossible, I will be very surprised to learn of anyone making $10,000 per year on show wagering (and doing it through the paramutuel pools.).

It can be most certain that a high number of sharpies have already checked the possibility of making a very small percentage profit while putting large sums of money in to the pools, so the likelyhood that any significant profits still remain untapped is extremely small.

[FantasticDan]

If you're going to bet to show, go the other way. There are situations where longshots are likely to finish in the money with the favorite out of the money.I recently started placing occasional show bets, and this is essentially how I do it. I only bet larger fields, and only if there isn't a short-priced fave. I then look for a horse with 10-1 odds or higher whose BSFs are competitive with the field. Horses whose numbers compete but have a last-out toss race tend to be juicy since their odds can often reflect the most recent race rather than their standard. And of course I look at pace.. always on the lookout for a proven closer.

I stopped into my OTB today and looked at Parx's 6th race. Both the :6: and :8: horses fit my bill, so I placed $10 on each to show..

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/PRX010912USA6.pdf

$20 bet, $65 win, and out the door. Nothing terrific, but it always feels nice to win twice in the same race, and you didn't even use the winner.. :D :ThmbUp:

[thaskalos]

This thread saddens me...because it reminds me how much I miss reading "markgoldie's" posts on this board...

I hope you are doing well Mark...wherever you are...:ThmbUp:

[Cholly]

This thread saddens me...because it reminds me how much I miss reading "markgoldie's" posts on this board...

I hope you are doing well Mark...wherever you are...:ThmbUp:

ditto that

[Shemp Howard]

Illegal bookies won't take show bets.


That tells me something.

[dansan]

your a smart stooge Shemp

[riskman]

This thread saddens me...because it reminds me how much I miss reading "markgoldie's" posts on this board...

I hope you are doing well Mark...wherever you are...:ThmbUp:

Just thinking the same thing. Hope all is well with him. Sure miss his posts--there was much to gain from his writings.

[windoor]

I have data for all win, place and show wagering.

Every time, the win wager will produce more profit given the same amount of investment dollars over time.

This will be the first year I will entertain a place wager as I near my maximum win wager (on some plays) in the smaller pools. I can affect the odds myself on longer odd horses.

The place wager, even if it only breaks even can be of a psychological advantage when losing streaks occur, and for that alone, you might consider one here.

Over all, my data says I can earn another 20% return through the place pools.

I have nothing that will show a long term profit in the show pools.

I hit 83% (show)with my selections on the AllData forums for Aqueduct last week, and I think it broke about even or maybe showed a small profit for show. A very small sample, but I think the show wager will always do poorly.

This was for my highest ranked win % play that I have. The odds have been extremely low with a couple of rare exceptions, and could not show a profit with a 33% win rate for the week. I was expecting a 50% hit rate. Maybe next week will be a little better.

Regards,

Windoor

[Prairie Bettor]

It is possible to make significant money betting show.

Easiest way is by betting on or against minus pools. Or both.

A large bankroll makes it easier. You will have ups and downs, and must be able to continue the game.

[Robert Goren]

I am terrible at picking horses to show as my thread on betting against bridgejumpers last summer proved. This much I have learned, a horse that is good win bet is not necessarily a good show bet and vice versa.

[Capper Al]

I never did any research on show betting, but you can definitely make money betting to place. In fact, I think place betting is still a pretty good approach, though not not nearly as lucrative as it was a few years ago when the take in NY was lower and they didn't use Net Pool Pricing.

Amazingly I found that with long shots that the place and win ROI is about the same. This enables a player to shorten their time between cashing tickets on shots. The psychology of winning and not getting stressed waiting for one's shots to come in is important and can help keep a capper level headed.

[windoor]

Amazingly I found that with long shots that the place and win ROI is about the same. This enables a player to shorten their time between cashing tickets on shots. The psychology of winning and not getting stressed waiting for one's shots to come in is important and can help keep a capper level headed.

This may be because of players like me.

"As I made my way up to the $50 window for the next race, I showed the teller my $100 win ticket (for the previous race) for a horse that had a 4 length lead coming down the stretch, only to get nosed at the wire by a late closing favorite. The odds? Over 100 to 1. (99 on the board) He waited, expecting me to produce the place ticket as the odds were so high. I did not have one.

He asked me, "how can you not have a place (and a show) ticket on a horse you liked, at such an odd?" I just smiled and said, "I play to win only"

It is certainly painful at times."

Regards,

Windoor

[Pell Mell]

Amazingly I found that with long shots that the place and win ROI is about the same. This enables a player to shorten their time between cashing tickets on shots. The psychology of winning and not getting stressed waiting for one's shots to come in is important and can help keep a capper level headed.

Interesting thread for me because I too am a long shot spot player. I had just checked my results for the past year and I go on a month to month basis.

My worst month happened to be the last month.

62 plays......8 winners @ 12% rate = P/L - 16 units
15 placed @ 24% rate = P/L - 34 units

My yearly average is 20% win.......40% place...profit to win is slightly more than place but betting place eliminates a lot of long losing streaks. Another bonus is that playing the horse in the first 2 slots as a key helps to hit a lot of exotics.

I like the place hole better than win or show. :ThmbUp:

[Aerocraft67]

JP posted these database results (http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard..._MLine_2011.txt) to another thread about morning line favorites. The second set of results show simulated win/place/show ROIs on random runners in all races in 2011 that are effectively the same. In the first set of results, for wagers on all morning line favorites for 2011, show ROI was higher than place, and place higher than win.

Shouldn't the show ROI be lower than place, and place lower than win? Why don't the ROI results here reflect the inferiority of show and place wagering to win wagering?

[Light]

This thread saddens me...because it reminds me how much I miss reading "markgoldie's" posts on this board...



What happened to Stillriledup from the beginning of this thread? I wanted to put a cork in him because he wouldn't shut up. Now nada. Didn't care for his or
markgoldie's posts much but you wonder what's going on when someone goes cold turkey after gobbling so much.

[Jeff P]

JP posted these database results (http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard..._MLine_2011.txt) to another thread about morning line favorites. The second set of results show simulated win/place/show ROIs on random runners in all races in 2011 that are effectively the same. In the first set of results, for wagers on all morning line favorites for 2011, show ROI was higher than place, and place higher than win.

Shouldn't the show ROI be lower than place, and place lower than win? Why don't the ROI results here reflect the inferiority of show and place wagering to win wagering?

Actually, the answer to the bolded question from the above quoted post is: No.

When you are dealing with low odds horses (favorites and near favorites) the long term public betting trend is that flat bet roi for place and show generally outperforms that of the win pool. The roi performance of low odds horses is very different from what Al and Windoor are talking about above. With higher odds horses, the big picture public betting trend is the opposite - and produces a flat bet roi for the win pool almost always outperforms that of place and show.


-jp

.

[Jeff P]

This thread saddens me...because it reminds me how much I miss reading "markgoldie's" posts on this board...

I hope you are doing well Mark...wherever you are...:ThmbUp:

Agree. I too miss Mark's posts. By the way, I agree 100% with Mark's contention that the superfecta pool offers the player a more effective way to exploit a solid opinion than the show pool does.

-jp

.

[Capper Al]

The deal with Win vs Place betting doesn't apply for taking any horse at 5/1(my line) or higher. It only applies to horses considered a contender by a seasoned long shot player. It's like Pell Mell's earlier post in this thread. The place ROI is close not better, but it reduces the stress and waiting to hit the big win ticket. Shortening the waiting time helps to keep the capper's head stable.

[Light]

The only money worth making in show betting are show parlays. I used to parlay $5 into $100 with 5 or 6 show bets early in my career with careful calculations ,then start over. Haven't been able to do it today even though more experienced. Don't have the patience and time like I used to (or the innocence). Of course if we had patience we would only bet on the horses we really liked and all be making handsome profits. It's really that simple and that hard.

[HUSKER55]

IF you are going to parlay show bets, do you have any rules like 8:1 or higher or ar you just betting your picks?

[Light]

IF you are going to parlay show bets, do you have any rules like 8:1 or higher or ar you just betting your picks?

I never did. You can have an 8-1 shot pay less than a 3-1 shot because everyone knows the 8-1 shot is the best closer, so I just look at the pools. When I used to play show parlays regularly, I would look for horses paying approx $3.60 and up (with the favorite hitting the board) to build the initial bankroll up at a quicker rate. Later in the parlay sequence I was happy with $2.80 and up.But whenever the favorite ran out,you got "juice".

I still remember one day where I stretched my show parlay beyond my $100 limit and put the $100 to show on a 6/5 shot because the show pools on this favorite were tempting. But this favorite made me sweat as he weakened badly in the stretch but held on for third. I was stunned when he paid $3.60 to show considering he would only pay $4.20 to win if he won. So I look at the board more than the odds.

[classhandicapper]

Amazingly I found that with long shots that the place and win ROI is about the same. This enables a player to shorten their time between cashing tickets on shots. The psychology of winning and not getting stressed waiting for one's shots to come in is important and can help keep a capper level headed.

When I was doing a lot of place betting, it was mostly on short priced horses because some of them are under bet in the place pool relative to the win pool. (there were several conditions I looked for)

Net Pool Pricing had the effect of lowering the place price on short priced horses (by about a dime) and raising it on long shots. Combined with the take being 2% higher in NY and lower rebates (I was getting 7% to place at the time), most of the profit was taken out of the method.

I hit 80% and had an ROI of over +10% for about 2 years betting to place. I loved it. No bad losing streaks and I could bet a higher % of my bankroll at 80%.

I never explored show wagering.

[appistappis]

I'm surprised here at the number of posts on this thread....place and show betting should not be a consideration for a serious player.

[Dark Horse]

Generally, in terms of value, this is a horrible idea. With one possible exception. If you can weed out the losing efforts, which would require very deep handicapping skill, you could parlay these type of bets, and end up with a good return. Compare it to betting the Yankees at home as -260 favorites six or seven times in a row. If you let the money ride and can avoid the losses, you may get several times your initial stake back. But if you do it as an easy way out, you'll lose, because you won't be able to avoid the rare losses. In horse racing this would require a deep study of third place, the spot that is most often up for grabs; if a race favorite has a bad race, chances are he's not interested in second or third, and will leave the consolation prize for a longshot for whom third is a good achievement.

Betting to show as a strategy in itself is virtually the same as betting scared. That's just as bad as betting greedy. Because you're undercutting your return by either losing too much or winning too little. Emotions have no place in race analysis. If you can't determine value, you're going to lose in the long run. Period. That's where many good horse handicappers go wrong. They know everything about handicapping the races, but don't understand value.

[pandy]

Very difficult to profit from show bets, even with parlays, because horses that lay over the field on class and figures and should win easily often finish off the board for various different reasons. Show betting can fool you because you can hit 20 in a row and think you're on easy street, then all of a sudden three or four in a row run out and there goes your profit.

Someone who wants to bet conservatively with a high percentage of winners would have a better chance of showing a profit betting carefully placed exacta hedge bets or even Pick 3's. With $1.00 Pick 3's and the reduced takeout you can spread and cover a lot of combinations, combined with a rebate from a good ADW you can grind out a profit with a pretty good win percentage as well.

[Robert Goren]

I'm surprised here at the number of posts on this thread....place and show betting should not be a consideration for a serious player.I am so sure of that. The problem with show betting and to lesser extent place betting is how much more money you pay in breakage. On show betting I figure on average it adds another 1% to the amount of money the track keeps out the pool. It does add up over time.

[Robert Fischer]

Breakage ...
SMALL POOLS (typically 15% of WIN or EX) ...
Late Odds Drop on public choices (SHW Pool Inefficiencies can dissapear with late money on the obvious cases, sometimes dropping far below acceptable value ) ...
Worse Value (ROI, price/prob%, Ceiling, pretty much every metric! ...)than other bets involving those vertical exotics or winning longshots (even place as well, but to a lesser extent)...

^^ These are just some:mad: of the issues that face the SHOW wager. And these issues are basically in ADDITION TO the laundry list of issues that the horseplayer faces already in the "better" wager types.
Now if we are honest, and say that it is difficult to MAKE MONEY in ANY wager-type! There is little wonder that the show pool isn't for everyone.

[classhandicapper]

I don't know anything about show betting, but IMO most of the concerns about breakage are overblown when it comes to place betting if you know what you are doing.

The breakage hits you harder, but the pool is less efficient because all the supposed "smart money" is looking at the exotic pools trying to make a score.

The more frequent and greater inefficiencies in the place pool more than make up for the breakage.

The major issue is pool size. You more or less have to play at the major tracks so the size of the place pool is at least as large as the win pool at smaller tracks. Otherwise, late action will kill you.

[Tom]

All that matters is your records.
I make money long term betting 1 unit win and three units place at 9-2 or over. Have done so for years.

[Light]

Betting to show as a strategy in itself is virtually the same as betting scared.

You can be scared betting to win as well. It's not limited to the show pool. Certainly bridge jumpers have more balls than any win better.

Here's the main reason show betting is attractive. At the end of a betting day I may have pushed $300 through the window and got back $320 without show bets. A paltry ROI for hours of work. I could have also just bet my best horse on the card to show that would pay $4 and up, and went home with at least a $300 profit.This isn't being scared. This is being profitable and not wasting my time.

[appistappis]

All that matters is your records.
I make money long term betting 1 unit win and three units place at 9-2 or over. Have done so for years.


Surely your records would show more money won if you had bet 4 units to win.

[Tom]

No, the don't.

[Robert Fischer]

Breakage ...
ETC ...

....



Now the above list of cons doesn't even cover some of the slightly more complex issues. One example would be the nature of the parimutuel system and the fact that a vulnerable favorite must not only lose, not only be beat for 2nd, but be 4TH OR WORSE for a SHW pool to truly Pay You the big vulnerable favorite pot. This alone Swings WIN and even PLC far to the early lead. Then add the intricacies such as mentioned in this thread regarding how to deal with SHW contenders if they are or are not WIN contenders etc etc etc........ This is huge.


That said, I have done my due diligence when it comes to the SHW wager type.


Long story short - Among my work with probability and using a skill-based positive-expectation I did quite a bit of planning, thought, and work with - the SHW wager-type.

Without discussing the pros/cons of eliminating risk-of-ruin, it was and is a topic in which I was fascinated by. Originally starting with a small bankroll of $100 or LESS! :blush: my theories and ideas about eliminating risk-of-ruin were going to be hypothetical theoretical impossibilities without looking at wager types which allow the horseplayer to purchase a large amount of probability (or hit%).

- MEANING that the true 2-1 $6 WIN horse will WIN 1/3 of time or 33% of hit rate. This same guy maybe pays $2.60 to SHW. IF 2.60SHWguy magically pays a fair price it will show with a hit rate of 77%.

That is the difference between a $6WINHORSE and it's relatively-low-but-still-crippling-to-a-small-bankroll 23 MCL. (MCL is calculation of Maximum Consecutive Losses), while Mr. $2.60SHOWHORSE has an MCL of 6.



A long-term skill based approach that was not susceptible to risk of ruin. (Think skill over luck, the end of the spectrum where the term "gamble" is almost a misnomer).


So... I spent a lot of time early on, looking at SHOW, and looking at purchasing more hit% in other wagers (example Win Dutching, Place/Show dutching), Multiple horse exotics ETC... SHW tries to be the king of the HIGH% wager-types by smugly reminding us that it only cost $2 for all that hit%(unlike the multi horse, "coverage") all that. This is another PRO for SHOW in that there is a maximum bet size depending on your bankroll size and a low estimate for hit%. With Dutching, your freedom is squeezed a little as the distributed multi wagers more quickly approach that maximum bet size.

The part of show betting that I did not focus on was either side of bridge-jumping.

The theory was to start with betting SHW and a few other HIGH% coverage plays, and as I won enough to grow my bankroll, incorporate more wager-types that I could afford to keep the risk of ruin virtually nonexistent. (example: shw--->plc---->win--->dbl--->ex---->pk3--->tri> etc....) In other words advancing to lower hit% wagers as my banrkoll grew(because they could be covered without risk of ruin and offer a higher "ceiling", more pool size etc..).



Following this path (and I know I put everyone to sleep with this long nonsensical post) = CHOICES must be made regarding: what POOLS to focus..., Whether or not multiple wager types (betting into multiple pools) should be used and considering the various reasons pro / con.



There certainly comes a point where SHW wagers must be thought over regarding whether they are worth the extra time, and work etc, for the minimal return.



stuff is interesting to me but not easy.

[Robert Fischer]

The major issue is pool size. You more or less have to play at the major tracks so the size of the place pool is at least as large as the win pool at smaller tracks. Otherwise, late action will kill you.

nice post.

Now, even at a blue-collar day @ MAJOR track you could have only 10K in SHW pool... Maybe 20K...

But with inefficiencies = more times than not they will be "corrected" if the horse in question was one of the well-bet public choice(s) in the major pools (such as WIN) regardless of whether it's a MAJOR track or a small track. And when you eat chalk ---> AND you are going for that inefficiency on that chalk and you know already that it's volatile and you may as easily get 2.20 to SHOW although it is post time and the payouts currently show 2.60 ---> You then have to consider the horses that DON'T get "corrected" for their inefficiency and whether that is a "bad" market movement in certain cases. :bang::confused: = OF course you have no idea whether those volatile chalks will get "corrected" with late odds drops in the PLC or SHW - until after the race.
If you aren't just following the market and assuming an EVEN MONEY win horse SHOULD be paying a lot less than $2.80 or whatever so it has a fair probability of currently being an inefficiency(until the flashes finish and you see it is $2.20), you are doing HARD WORK....
If you actually know the horses well and this is a tremendous pick for you, then the WHOLE dynamics are changed = $2.80 is known by you to have a high probability that it is in FACT an inefficiency, and $2.20 would be acceptable... your not just blindly comparing the pool markets

[PICSIX]

Can you make momey (long term) betting to show? What if you only bet horses like Zenyata or Rachel to show? I know you would have to win 20 out of 21 to break even.(When they pay $2.10) Do you think you could hit 99 out of 100 show bets on quality horses over a long period of time?

No!

[Robert Fischer]

No, the[y] don't.


Then there is the Mark Goldie approach of turning those 9/2+ into trifecta or superfecta keys.... (not saying that I think this is better, just adding on)

so many options and most/all have strengths or weaknesses...

pretty cool game we've got here.

[Robert Goren]

The game does have a lot of options. Too bad it is so hard to turn a profit with any of them.

[Robert Fischer]

The game does have a lot of options. Too bad it is so hard to turn a profit with any of them.

amen

[Aerocraft67]

...One example would be the nature of the parimutuel system and the fact that a vulnerable favorite must not only lose, not only be beat for 2nd, but be 4TH OR WORSE for a SHW pool to truly Pay You the big vulnerable favorite pot. This alone Swings WIN and even PLC far to the early lead. Then add the intricacies such as mentioned in this thread regarding how to deal with SHW contenders if they are or are not WIN contenders etc etc etc........ This is huge.

...

SHW tries to be the king of the HIGH% wager-types by smugly reminding us that it only cost $2 for all that hit%(unlike the multi horse, "coverage") all that. This is another PRO for SHOW in that there is a maximum bet size depending on your bankroll size and a low estimate for hit%. With Dutching, your freedom is squeezed a little as the distributed multi wagers more quickly approach that maximum bet size...

I've quoted some of the issues that I continued to ponder after reading this thread (both the new and revived version). For a small bankroll and maximum wager size, perhaps it's worth paying the penalties of show?

A basic criteria for value is to have favorites finish out of your pool. This scenario increases both trifecta and show payouts. If a small bankroll bettor likes a horse to finish in the money but not win, likes the favorite to finish out of the money, and doesn't otherwise have a strong opinion about win contenders, even modest trifecta part wheels get a little pricey compared with a single show wager.

For instance, ABC/ABC/K + ABC/K/ABCD is 15 trifectas to cover your key. That's 7.5 times the minimum investment in a show wager. Surely well-constructed trifectas are a more favorable long-term proposition, but they could smoke out your bankroll and spirit in the short term (very high MCL).

I realize the thread is more about systematically making money in the show pool for serious players and less about rationalizing scenarios where show wagering makes sense, but even after acknowledging the pool's shortcomings, is it also fair to say it has a worthy role beyond a haven for timid suckers?

[Pell Mell]

All that matters is your records.
I make money long term betting 1 unit win and three units place at 9-2 or over. Have done so for years.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[classhandicapper]

your not just blindly comparing the pool markets

There are unquestionably some categories of horses that are "all or nothing" and others that are way more likely to "fire" than the average horse.

When I was doing a lot of place betting, I was mostly looking for legitimate favorites that were under bet in the place pool relative to the win pool that I also thought were in the category of horse that was very likely to "fire". I liked it even more if there was another short priced horse that I thought was an all nothing because if he was out, a bomb could come in with him and inflate the place price.

A few years ago I was getting 1-2 bets a day just in NY, but with the higher take, net pool pricing, and lower rebate I only get 1 a week (if that many). I don't even really look much any more.

[Dark Horse]

You can be scared betting to win as well. It's not limited to the show pool. Certainly bridge jumpers have more balls than any win better.

Here's the main reason show betting is attractive. At the end of a betting day I may have pushed $300 through the window and got back $320 without show bets. A paltry ROI for hours of work. I could have also just bet my best horse on the card to show that would pay $4 and up, and went home with at least a $300 profit.This isn't being scared. This is being profitable and not wasting my time.


A ROI of +7% is not bad at all. Increasing bet size could make that a worthwhile day. Not sure how you got from a profit of $20 to $300 with show bets. How much did you risk for that extra $300?

[Light]

I realized I wasn't clear on that point after my post. What I meant was instead of pushing $300 through the window on win bets, exactas, etc and only coming out $20 ahead, you could just put the whole $300 to show on one horse. One bet and be done with it. Take your best bet of the day where you can get even money to show or close to it and bet the whole enchilada, $300. If it hits you just made $300 or more this way, and be way ahead of win betters. If the horse only pays $3 to show you're still up $150 and still way ahead of making only $20.

All the eggs in one basket. Less work, better pay. Of course this is easier said than done but so is profiting from grinding out a plethora of win bets.

My point is that I am defending show betting as being as profitable as win betting if you have the right strategy. I agree betting to show is boring and usually non productive. But that is in the context of straight and small show bets. Not parlays or round robins or in the example I gave above.

There was one sequence back in the beginning of my career where I tracked the last 10 show bets I made. If I had parlayed them from $5 I would have had $50,000. I am not kidding. This is why I don't get it when people say show betting is not profitable.

[mistergee]

I think the size of your plays may have had a somewhat adverse affect on your payoffs toward the end of that 10 horse parlay

[Robert Fischer]

is it also fair to say it has a worthy role beyond a haven for timid suckers?

That is one of the big questions.

Personally I still use Show wagering, but it is in a very narrow type of pool scenario.

[Robert Fischer]

I realized I wasn't clear on that point after my post. What I meant was instead of pushing $300 through the window on win bets, exactas, etc and only coming out $20 ahead, you could just put the whole $300 to show on one horse. One bet and be done with it. Take your best bet of the day where you can get even money to show or close to it and bet the whole enchilada, $300. If it hits you just made $300 or more this way, and be way ahead of win betters. If the horse only pays $3 to show you're still up $150 and still way ahead of making only $20.

All the eggs in one basket. Less work, better pay. Of course this is easier said than done but so is profiting from grinding out a plethora of win bets.

My point is that I am defending show betting as being as profitable as win betting if you have the right strategy. I agree betting to show is boring and usually non productive. But that is in the context of straight and small show bets. Not parlays or round robins or in the example I gave above.

There was one sequence back in the beginning of my career where I tracked the last 10 show bets I made. If I had parlayed them from $5 I would have had $50,000. I am not kidding. This is why I don't get it when people say show betting is not profitable.


I like the bolded strategy for a conservative approach and still taking a gamble.

If $300 is your base wager, the story is totally different. It only takes like $2,500 in the roll to bet $300 on a 75% show horse. Hopefully you can get at least $3 on a play in that range.

[Robert Fischer]

The breakage hits you harder, but the pool is less efficient because all the supposed "smart money" is looking at the exotic pools trying to make a score.


good stuff :ThmbUp:

[Dark Horse]

There was one sequence back in the beginning of my career where I tracked the last 10 show bets I made. If I had parlayed them from $5 I would have had $50,000. I am not kidding. This is why I don't get it when people say show betting is not profitable.

Do your homework, select 5 or 6 show bets, go to the track, and parlay them. Report back after the experiment with success story or lessons learned. Good luck.

[Light]

Been there done that. I'm not on LSD or something spouting unreal claims.

I can report that in 2010 according to my Twinspires account I finished in the black with my strongest income by far coming from the "place pick all" bets that are available at GG and SoCal which is essentially a place parlay of the whole card. I rarely put more than $8 in those bets.

[Robert Fischer]

I think the size of your plays may have had a somewhat adverse affect on your payoffs toward the end of that 10 horse parlay

This can happen much quicker/(and/or more often) in shw parlays, than the win variety.

[Robert Fischer]

This can happen much quicker/(and/or more often) in shw parlays, than the win variety.

reason being: Smaller Pools

[pondman]

When I was young...

I'd watch a couple high end trainers at SA, and if they had a maiden and went to the big window, I'd bet to show-- cashed some nice tickets that way.

[Capper Al]

When I was young...

I'd watch a couple high end trainers at SA, and if they had a maiden and went to the big window, I'd bet to show-- cashed some nice tickets that way.

This makes perfect sense for trainers. They know their horse is ready and is going for it. They don't know what surprises other trainers might have or how racing luck will play out.

[mistergee]

This makes perfect sense for trainers. They know their horse is ready and is going for it. They don't know what surprises other trainers might have or how racing luck will play out.
Agree, have owned horses on and off for about 33 yrs, and if trainers knew that much I would not still be working

[lamboguy]

Agree, have owned horses on and off for about 33 yrs, and if trainers knew that much I would not still be working
that is probably the understatement of the year so far!

[mistergee]

well at least I won something