andicap
08-18-2001, 08:37 PM
My current research has me looking at the 10 best times in my two or three key pace categories across the entire field. I go back 3 months for horses who have raced recently and 6 months for horses who havent or are a couple of races off a layoff. Obviously for layoff horses I go back as well.
Initial finding, looking for reaction: If you have race where the best recent times (last 45 days) are very low in relation to the rest of the "best times" in the field, longer priced horses have a better chance of winning and horses off layoffs have a better chance as well.
I'll then look for horses off layoffs (or 1 or 2 off a layoff) with back numbers that are better than the best recent ones. You'd be surprised at the prices they pay.
I'm looking at more races of course but wondering if anyone else has ever noticed this.
Initial finding, looking for reaction: If you have race where the best recent times (last 45 days) are very low in relation to the rest of the "best times" in the field, longer priced horses have a better chance of winning and horses off layoffs have a better chance as well.
I'll then look for horses off layoffs (or 1 or 2 off a layoff) with back numbers that are better than the best recent ones. You'd be surprised at the prices they pay.
I'm looking at more races of course but wondering if anyone else has ever noticed this.