TUP 03-23-10 Race -2 (Overlay???)

[Partsnut]

TUP 03-23-10 Race -2 (Overlay???)

This turf race, IMHO, has some value possibilities.
I believe this will favor the sustained type runner.
The speed points of (20) and the pace pressure of (1)
seems to validate this.

My contenders are as follows:

2 - Por Que Yo, ML 5-2, EP7
4 - Frenchies Fast, ML 5-1, PC5
6 - Tribal One, ML 2-1, EP7
7 - Mikey'stexasholdem, ML 9-2, PC2

My pick would be (4) Frenchies Fast providing his ML odds hold up.
This is the best sustained horse in the race.
The (7) Mikey'stexasholdem would be My second choice in the event of a scratch.

Possible exactas: 4 with 2-6-7 and 7 with 2, 4, 6.

As always, all opinions are welcomed.

[46zilzal]

How in the world do speed points have much relevance in a turf contest?

2nd race - Turf Paradise - March 23, 2010

Pgm Horse Win Place Show
2 Por Que Yo 6.60 3.60 2.20
7 Mikey'stexasholdem 7.00 3.40
6 Tribal One 2.10

[Partsnut]

46zilzal: How in the world do speed points have much relevance in a turf contest?


Tim,

The PaceAppraiser method uses speed points for all surfaces.
It makes no distinction for different surfaces. This includes pace line selection as well. If you have a question as to why, you might want to pose this question to Randy Giles.
It's not a secret that I am a strong proponent of this method.
I also use the Brohamer factors but I do not model or profile.

Being as I do not use a decision model the next best thing is projecting what
type of runner I think would fit the race. Speed points give me this indication and for the most part I have used them successfully. The pronounced early track bias went against me in this particular race. For this type of race and for this track (TUP) 1 Mile on the turf is running (1.2) which indicates that the race could have gone either way. In todays case the early horse prevailed.

Horsing racing is far from a precise game. There are too many variables that determine the outcome of a particular race.
Hey, as we all know, you win some and lose some.
You just have to win enough to give you a positive ROI (20% +) to make the effort worthwhile. It's not about how many races I win, it's about how much money I make.
We all do things in different ways. As far as I'm concerned, there's no right or wrong when it comes to horse racing. I'm not a rules oriented person. I do what works and makes sense to me.:ThmbUp:

[lamboguy]

46zilzal:


Tim,

The PaceAppraiser method uses speed points for all surfaces.
It makes no distinction for different surfaces. This includes pace line selection as well. If you have a question as to why, you might want to pose this question to Randy Giles.
It's not a secret that I am a strong proponent of this method.
I also use the Brohamer factors but I do not model or profile.

Being as I do not use a decision model the next best thing is projecting what
type of runner I think would fit the race. Speed points give me this indication and for the most part I have used them successfully. The pronounced early track bias went against me in this particular race. For this type of race and for this track (TUP) 1 Mile on the turf is running (1.2) which indicates that the race could have gone either way. In todays case the early horse prevailed.

Horsing racing is far from a precise game. There are too many variables that determine the outcome of a particular race.
Hey, as we all know, you win some and lose some.
You just have to win enough to give you a positive ROI (20% +) to make the effort worthwhile. It's not about how many races I win, it's about how much money I make.
We all do things in different ways. As far as I'm concerned, there's no right or wrong when it comes to horse racing. I'm not a rules oriented person. I do what works and makes sense to me.:ThmbUp:let me tell you, whatever is good you won the contest. your handicapping is way above my head and my capabilities. congradulations and please keep up the good work.

[Partsnut]

lamboguy: let me tell you, whatever is good you won the contest. your handicapping is way above my head and my capabilities. congradulations and please keep up the good work.

I really appreciate your cordial response. Just let me say that it could have been you or anyone else that had the good fortune to win the contest.
You'd be surprised at what capabilities you have.

Sometimes it's a good idea to take a break and clear out the clutter of information you have absorbed from various sources an open your mind to fresh, new information and ideas.
Remember that if everyone did the same thing and followed the same rules, horse racing would not be much of a challenge and you would lose interest in the game.
Over 90% of the betting public are losers. They follow the crowd.
I always had an individualistic approach to the game and sorted the wheat from the chaff.

If I can ever be of some help in this regard, I'd be happy to discuss it with you.