Hollywood Gold Cup Analysis

[Bubbles]

Hey all...

12 days till the Spa. Until then, I gotta handicap as much as possible to prevent a Red Sox-like September slide (sorry sufferin). Here is a horse-by-horse analysis of Saturday's Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup...

RODION-Some owners might be a little too optimistic, but COME ON! This horse hasn't hit the board since June of LAST YEAR! If that isn't enough to draw you away, you're an idiot.

GOLDEN TICKET-Ever since Sise took the blinkers off, he's been unstoppable, winning both races without the hood by a combined margin of 22 and 1/4(!) lengths. The class is very iffy (both races were at Philly Park), but he is 4 for 7 at HOL, and has left no doubts that he can get the distance: If he can outsprint Congaree to the lead, he might do something.

KUDOS-Is always right there. Has never been more than 4.5 lengths back at the wire in his last ten starts against very good company. He appears to be getting back into form with a very nice win in the Californian on this surface. Has seen the best Cal. has to offer and has contended, and you can't doubt his late kick in a race like this with a good amount of speed; the pick.

CONGAREE-Horrible trip in the Met Mile last out. Definitely not what he's capable of (see every SA race this year). Hasn't been out of the barn for six weeks, and what happens if GT gets to the lead? He hasn't shown a huge ability to rate, and that could kill his chances.

WESTERN PRIDE-Bounced badly in the Californian after back-to-back 112 Beyers, the second against Suburban winner Mineshaft. However, he hasn't shown ability at ten furlongs, and there is just too much speed in here; elsewhere.

HARLAN'S HOLIDAY-Tough one to figure out. Has contended in major races, but his times aren't exactly incredible, especially when compared to the likes of Congaree. Second start off a layoff is good, but if a speed horse gets out to a slow pace, he's done; tough, tough call, I'll let him beat me.

PIENSA SONANDO-Was high on this one early in the year but tailed off after his first graded stakes win in December. Like Kudos, however, he's coming back into form, as his Californian second shows. Stevens gets off Congaree and stays up on this one, which is a good sign; contender.

DA PICKS

1) KUDOS
2) CONGAREE
3) PIENSA SONANDO

[cj]

How I see the race...
Race # 9---10.0f

1:RODION-Arg:30-1:NA

Distance 1:0-1-0 Track 1:0-0-0
J-FLORES-D-R ( 197- 36- 29- 21-0.18) ( 616-102-0.17)
T-Vienna-Darrell ( 29- 8- 2- 2-0.28) ( 178- 36-0.20)

Hol 05/24/2003 10.0 8 Tfm Pulled-early-no-rally 81 91 70 77| 74t
Hol 05/11/2003 8.5 4 Dfst No-late-bid-inside 96 92 86 87| 85
SI 09/06/2002 15.0 X Tfm San-Isidro(Arg) AdjTimeform N/A| N/A
Har 06/29/2002 10.0 X Dfst Hipodromo(Arg) AdjTimeform N/A| N/A
SI 05/25/2002 12.0 X Tfst San-Isidro(Arg) AdjTimeform N/A| N/A
Har 04/27/2002 12.5 X Dfst Hipodromo(Arg) AdjTimeform N/A| N/A
Har 04/06/2002 12.5 X Dfst Hipodromo(Arg) AdjTimeform N/A| N/A
Har 03/16/2002 12.5 X Dsly Hipodromo(Arg) AdjTimeform N/A| N/A
Har 12/28/2001 12.5 X Dfst Hipodromo(Arg) AdjTimeform N/A| N/A
Ros 12/08/2001 11.0 X Dgd Rosario(Arg) AdjTimeform N/A| N/A

2:GOLDEN-TICKET-Ky:15-1:EP

Distance 1:0-0-0 Track 7:4-0-1
J-VALENZUELA-P-A ( 333- 74- 53- 59-0.22) ( 802-166-0.21)
T-Sise-Clifford-Jr ( 41- 4- 8- 3-0.10) ( 185- 32-0.17)

Pha 06/07/2003 12.0 7 Dsly Impressive--handily No par 102| `99`
Pha 05/20/2003 8.5 4 Dfst Drew-off-mild-pressure No par 99| `95`
Hol 04/27/2003 8.5 5 Dfst Squeezed-strt-4wd-lane 96 95 89 85| 85
SA 03/23/2003 10.0 1 Dfst Bit-rank--weakened 95 94 93 83| 86
SA 02/09/2003 9.0 2 Dfst Pulled-bid-3wd-wkened 104 105 101 93| 95
Hol 12/21/2002 11.0 2 Dfst Pulled-rail-handily No par 105| `103`
Hol 11/30/2002 11.0 6 Dfst Stdied-5-1/2-3wd-bid No par 96| `95`
Hol 11/06/2002 8.5 2 Dfst Stalked-bid-led-held 104 92 98 92| 92
SA 10/05/2002 8.0 12 Tfm Stopped-bled-mouth 93 82 69 54| 54t
Fpx 09/13/2002 8.5 3 Dfst Inside-bit-tight-wire 93 88 93 87| 89

3:KUDOS-Ky:3-1:P

Distance 3:1-0-2 Track 2:1-0-0
J-SOLIS-A ( 250- 47- 38- 41-0.19) ( 617-111-0.18)
T-Mandella-Richard ( 45- 7- 8- 7-0.16) ( 123- 22-0.18)

Hol 06/14/2003 9.0 1 Dfst b 3wd-into-lane-rallied 112 107 100 107| 103
OP 04/05/2003 9.0 5 Dfst b Getting-to-runner-up 98 112 84 108| 102
SA 03/01/2003 10.0 4 Dfst b Pulled-3wd-into-lane 105 113 102 108| 104
SA 01/04/2003 8.5 1 Dfst b Saved-ground-to-lane 95 112 90 104| 98
OP 04/06/2002 9.0 7 Dfst b Full-of-run-midtrack 120 110 105 110| 107
SA 03/02/2002 10.0 6 Dfst b Stdied-early-5wd-3/8 126 117 121 112| 113
SA 02/17/2002 10.0 3 Dfst b 3wd-wore-down-foe 105 103 103 103| 101
Hol 12/01/2001 12.0 5 Tgd b Bid-btwn-led-outkicked No par 99| `99t`
Hol 11/11/2001 8.5 6 Tfm b Came-out-1/8-fin-well 105 101 98 100| 97t
SA 09/30/2001 10.0 2 Tfm b Rail-rally-lane 107 104 90 102| 97t

4:CONGAREE-Ky:8-5:EP

Distance 3:0-1-2 Track 1:1-0-0
J-BAILEY-J-D ( 1- 0- 1- 0-0.00) ( 415-106-0.26)
T-Baffert-Bob ( 111- 17- 19- 17-0.15) ( 350- 69-0.20)

Bel 05/26/2003 8.0 7 Dsly Bobbled-start--bumped 103 108 103 95| 99
Aqu 04/12/2003 7.0 2 Dmy Vied-inside--clear 103 116 103 116| 109
SA 03/01/2003 10.0 5 Dfst Fought-back-rail-game 105 113 105 113| 109
SA 02/02/2003 9.0 1 Dfst Led-into-lane-clear 115 112 114 112| 113
SA 01/04/2003 8.5 5 Dfst 3wd-bid-ridden-out 95 112 94 112| 104
Aqu 11/30/2002 8.0 4 Dfst Stalked-wide--clear 116 125 116 125| 119
SA 10/05/2002 8.0 1 Tfm Speed-inside-wkened 105 101 105 96| 100t
Dmr 09/02/2002 8.0 3 Dfst Vied-inched-away-game 103 104 103 104| 102
Dmr 08/04/2002 8.5 2 Dfst b Speed-inside-lost-2nd 123 106 123 101| 111
CD 06/15/2002 9.0 1 Dfst 4-5w-bid-led-faltered 111 115 111 101| 105

5:WESTERN-PRIDE-Fla:10-1:E

Distance 2:0-2-0 Track 1:0-0-0
J-VALDIVIA-J-JR ( 215- 21- 23- 33-0.10) ( 444- 42-0.09)
T-Chapman-James-K ( 38- 7- 7- 1-0.18) ( 66- 10-0.15)

Hol 06/14/2003 9.0 5 Dfst Took-up-btwn-1/4-wkend 112 107 112 97| 103
Pim 05/16/2003 9.5 8 Dsly 2wd-clear-3-1/2-faded 121 114 121 109| 113
SA 04/05/2003 9.0 8 Dfst Led-2nd-turn-held-game 112 111 111 111| 108
Krn 05/11/2002 10.0 X Tgd Kranji(Sin) AdjTimeform N/A| N/A
NAS 03/23/2002 10.0 X Dfst NadAlSheba(UAE) AdjTimeform 78| `78`
SA 03/02/2002 10.0 14 Dfst Speed-clear-held-2nd 126 117 126 112| 117
SA 02/02/2002 9.0 5 Dfst Pulled-3wd-bid-wkened 120 116 119 90| 102
SA 01/12/2002 8.5 6 Dfst 3wd-move-dueled-gamely 122 109 122 109| 115
Hol 11/25/2001 9.0 5 Tyl Speed-inside-wkened 115 106 115 101| 108t
Crc 10/20/2001 9.0 4 Dsly Off-rail--driving No Variant 108| `108`

6:HARLAN'S-HOLIDAY-Ohio:2-1:P

Distance 5:0-1-1 Track 0:0-0-0
J-VELAZQUEZ-J-R ( 0- 0- 0- 0-0.00) ( 678-165-0.24)
T-Pletcher-Todd-A ( 0- 0- 0- 0-0.00) ( 391- 96-0.25)

Bel 06/14/2003 9.0 1 Dsly Off-slowly--4-wide 111 109 104 91| 93
NAS 03/29/2003 10.0 X Dfst NadAlSheba(UAE) AdjTimeform 111| `111`
GP 02/22/2003 9.0 11 Dfst 3-wide--drew-clear 110 113 108 113| 109
GP 02/02/2003 8.5 2 Dfst 4-wide--fully-extended 107 110 105 110| 106
Aqu 11/30/2002 8.0 2 Dfst b Checked-rail-1/4-pole 116 125 114 114| 111
AP 10/26/2002 10.0 9 Dfst No-threat 106 115 96 85| 86
Bel 09/28/2002 10.0 1 Dgd Vied-inside--stubborn 115 114 115 110| 112
Pha 09/02/2002 9.0 4 Dwf 3-wide-move-drew-off No par 96| `96`
Pim 05/18/2002 9.5 6 Dfst 4wd-trip-bid-flattened 120 104 116 101| 107
CD 05/04/2002 10.0 13 Dfst 5w-bid-no-late-gain 112 113 105 99| 102

7:PIENSA-SONANDO-Chi:8-1:S

Distance 3:0-1-0 Track 3:1-1-1
J-STEVENS-G-L ( 59- 15- 13- 5-0.25) ( 227- 43-0.19)
T-McAnally-Ronald ( 67- 13- 11- 4-0.19) ( 175- 27-0.15)

Hol 06/14/2003 9.0 4 Dfst b 4wd-3wd-led-late 112 107 110 106| 106
Hol 05/10/2003 8.5 5 Dfst Came-out-late-3rd 111 109 87 101| 96
SA 04/05/2003 9.0 7 Dfst Improved-position 112 111 91 106| 102
SA 03/01/2003 10.0 2 Dfst Split-foes-5/16-no-bid 105 113 102 105| 102
SA 02/02/2003 9.0 3 Dfst Lacked-late-response 115 112 111 101| 100
SA 01/04/2003 8.5 7 Dfst Improved-position 95 112 85 102| 97
Hol 12/14/2002 9.0 7 Dfst Came-out-1/8-up-late 108 102 99 102| 99
SA 10/24/2002 8.0 6 Dfst Split-foes-1/8-rallied 103 105 93 105| 101
SA 10/02/2002 7.0 5 Dfst Inside-turn-late-foot 90 97 69 95| 89
Val 02/03/2002 12.0 X Tfm Valparaiso(Chi) AdjTimeform N/A| N/A


1-No idea what this horse is doing in here

2-This horse hasn't beaten anyone at Pha, and done so with very unimpressive figures. Number might be on the board early, but a non-factor

3-Consistent type, but not quick enough to win this without a pace meltdown. His "big" win at OP was against the likes of Bowman's Band and Dollar Bill...next

4-Not sure what to make of his last race, but it is worse than people think. The pace was actually a little slow in my opinion. Maybe he didn't care for the slop. Contender, but definite underlay.

5-Has run some big numbers in the past, should pressure Congaree for a good bit. I think Mineshaft may have taken some of the punch out of this guy for his last race. Definite pace factor, chance.

6-Joined the elite "Dubai Bouncer" club last out as expected. This horse did nothing, looked dull, and horses rarely rebound to take G1 races. He'll take heavy action, probable 2d choice

7-Horse ran the race of his life last out with the addition of blinkers, but Gary cost him the victory by losing many lengths on the turns. Could be the one at a nice price.

My line for the race:

4-Congaree 3-1
7-Piensa Sonando 4-1
5-Western Pride 9-2
6 Harlan's Holiday 5-1

4 and 6 won't offer value, the 7 and 5 might. I'll be watching the tote.

[Bubbles]

CJ,

That "big win at OP" by Kudos was more than a year ago, and I didn't even consider it. However, he finished a strong third in that race this year to Medaglia d'Oro, not exactly a Bowman's Band. And his win in the Californian suggests he'll stretch out favorably.

MY ODDS

Kudos 4-1
Congaree 2-1
Piensa Sonando 8-1

PS will offer a ton of value today, and will be a nice play in exotics. Any other backers?

[Suff]

How I look at the race. And the only reason I'm throwing my two cents is.... that I look at the race after reading this post. so I'll toss my .02 in.

I don't elminate the 1 at all. Theres a few reasons why. But Bluntly. he's more proven at the distance than Congaree is. Who has never won in three tries at this distance.


I see his first race in 10 months was an 87...(including an international ship) .went to turf (firm) and ran a dud. still first race in 10 months...then a surface switch...

he's grade 1 and 2 proven in home country. turf to dirt...3rd race off a layoff... could run a NEW TOP 105-110 and get on this ticket.

Has a SMOKING 3rd best of 38 over the surface 4 days ago. a Nice endurnace building 5 Furlongs in 59.1

Couple of BIG races in graded events with soft footing. Any Moisture and he is quite playable at HUGE money.

Turf to Dirt....will start slow and be coming late when EVEN these Grade 1 proven's will be sucking wind.



If you completly disregard the argentina races....Your right...the TWO US races look weak...in here. But You still see a Horse bet down to 1-2, and 3-1 ... In 10 and 16 horse fields. A year ago almost to the day he was 2nd in Grade 1 going a Mile and 1/4 ,,bet to 4-1 in a 10 horse field.

Can he be.....just Tossed?? Or do i make any case?

i'm leaning 3-1-2

[Suff]

and I might add... he gets a Jockey whose's recent numbers indicate he's riding well.

Flores

16 for 74... 30 day streak
6 for 27 ...10 day streak

[Suff]

Intersting comment in the closer look as well.

His US debut, the 87 beyer I mentioned. He ran 4th by 3 1/2. (made up length half in fInal strides) Place Horse in that race shipped out and WON a MILE AND HALF at Philidelphia park.

So he was chasing some TRUE MARATHONERS in that event. Out near the 9 furlong mark... This race is up for grabs,

[Tom]

Interesting case you make, Suff, Bbut I think the possibility of a new top of 105-110 is stretching it a bit. Maybe a 90-95?
Now Congaree...I think this one is finished, and I thorw him out without a second thought. I am going out on a limb here, Congaree will not win another stakes race this year.
Maybe not even win another race period.
(Why do I do these things?):rolleyes:

[Bubbles]

I think his last race, the Met Mile, was overrated. He ran big in the Carter and got a horror trip, two factors that contributed to that flop. If he bounces back, he'll be dangerous today.

[young horseplayer]

does anyone know if a trifecta is being offered on this race? i heard the minimum for trifectas in cali was 8.

[Tom]

Originally posted by Tom
..... I am going out on a limb here, Congaree will not win another stakes race this year.
Maybe not even win another race period.
(Why do I do these things?):rolleyes:

Oh, boy I HAVE to learn to keep my mouth shut! D'OH!:rolleyes:

[Bubbles]

Hey...

Here is what I learned...

1) Sufferin, HOW BOUT THE 1? lol

2) Didn't think Congaree could rate at the start.

3) Kudos was done going into the first turn, when he was 12-15 lengths back.

4) If this is an indication of Saratoga, I'm screwed.

[Suff]

Originally posted by Bubbles
Hey...

Here is what I learned...

1) Sufferin, HOW BOUT THE 1? lol

.

What about him? lol? He beat one home.

I make cases for horses. I don't do the actual running.

The horse was long odds... Typically on a horse like this in a 6 horse field I'm correct about once every 15-20 times. 5%. Maybe a little less....

My Particular style is a Mix between a "stab artist" and a "Value bettor".

I watch races go off and I'm holding $75 dollars worth of tickets that have a very low chance of being cash'd. I'm used to it. I bet alot of horse that

are Badly outrun
Miss the break
only run 3 furlongs
spit the bit
Don't take to the surface.


Its all part of a days work or multiple days work in the life of a Value bettor and stab artist.

You have to have the stomach for this line of work.


When the winner is getting his getting his Picture taken and my Horse is just lumbering back to the Scale.... it can wear on you.

Race after race.....

But I still handicapp each race with the same eyes. I still land on "Opportunity horses".

I've already proven to myself that I can't be profitable hitting $8.00 horses,,,$22.00 exacta's and $39.00 Trifecta's. Its a STONE COLD surety..I will lose money hitting these races.

I would NEVER have had the excata and trifecta in the Hollywood Gold Cup. Even if I handicapped the race and I came up with

4-6-5..Thats how it ran right? I would never play that....Even if I worked the race for hour and came up with 4-6-5. The very least I would have done is a $20.00 tri key 4/5-6 and try to whack it 10 times. a $35.00 tri 5 times does very little to contribute to a positive month.

The only thing it does,,,is give me a Couple hundred bucks to take a shot at a "REAL" payday on the next race. and I already have $200.00 to do that. I don't need to bet Congaree to achieve that.

I did'nt bet the race. I play and watch NY. At 7-8pm when Hollywood is deep into thier card...I'm off. I only sit and play and watch NY. earlier in the afternoon I played $27.00 in pik3's with the 1-2-3 on the back end. Ticket lost. I saw the race on TV around the corner from my house..... The 1 did get what I thought he could work with , 6 furlongs in 109. But alas,,, The horse was not the Horse I thought or hoped.

Thast ok...if I had it do over....I'd do the same thing.

I rarely bet who "should" win the race. I bet who "Could" win the race.

Its a much more profitable and exciting way for me to enoy my hobby.

[SAL]

When you analyze a race a go out on a limb and stick a 50/1 on your exotic tickets, you're gonna be wrong a LOT more often than you're right. But when you ARE right, it'll make up for all the times you're wrong.

I wouldn't have had the exacta either. Who wants a 6/5 on top of 2/1 exacta? The latest contest proves this. The winner is a player who takes shots at prices. He probably had some goose egg weeks, had a lower hit rate than most, but comes out golden at the end.

[Bubbles]

Guess you're all right there. Personally, I go by times, and if by some incredible chance a good horse is, say, 27-1 when he should be the odds-on favorite (it happens sometimes at the Spa), I bet the ranch on him. It works the other way also: If the favorite is a horse that should be readied for the glue factory, I stick as much as possible on the horse that should be even money but is, say, 7/2. No matter what handicapping system you go by, this philosophy is proven to work.

Example: Last race of Whitney Day last year. A stakes-placed horse (Yankee Gentleman?) is running his first race on the lawn and is bet down to 9/5. My 9-1 shot got out on the lead, set comfortable fractions, and won going away, securing me a nice $60 double. And I STILL LOST CASH AT THE MEET! lol...