Need help winning

[Roy C]

Need your help people. I consider myself an above average capper but need help/advice on how to make it payoff. Been going to the races since youth and have always bet just about every race (1-2 tracks a day). If you ask me each weekend for my best 6 plays, I will win 65-75% of the time but my reckless ways get the best of me. I sometimes bet more on a race with no opinion then a race I may like. I have told myself going into the day to show restraint but the action gets the best of me time and time again. I can afford losing but also know I can make good money sticking to my guns and just hammer the key races but I don't have the stones or discipline to make it work. I love going to the races and don't want it to be a costly habit, is there any advise anyone can give me to cross that bridge? Thanks in advance.

[Stillriledup]

Need your help people. I consider myself an above average capper but need help/advice on how to make it payoff. Been going to the races since youth and have always bet just about every race (1-2 tracks a day). If you ask me each weekend for my best 6 plays, I will win 65-75% of the time but my reckless ways get the best of me. I sometimes bet more on a race with no opinion then a race I may like. I have told myself going into the day to show restraint but the action gets the best of me time and time again. I can afford losing but also know I can make good money sticking to my guns and just hammer the key races but I don't have the stones or discipline to make it work. I love going to the races and don't want it to be a costly habit, is there any advise anyone can give me to cross that bridge? Thanks in advance.

Do you go to the tracks or do you bet at home?

[Leonard]

[QUOTE=Roy C] I don't have the stones or discipline to make it workQUOTE]

Sounds like that is the problem and there is nothing anyone can do to help you with that.

You can flat bet only since you bet more on some races than others and maybe pay more attention to odds and look for fair value in your approach. Record keeping helps.

[Overlay]

Pay more attention to odds and look for fair value in your approach.

I definitely agree with you that a fair-odds line that you have confidence in can make the difference as far as providing the discipline to pass situations where the actual odds are too low to justify a wager of any size.

[point given]

Stop flirting and make a committment. Use small DD or p3 to get by races as action bets; then make your primary bets. Take two aspirins.

[Roy C]

I always go to the track live. An example of what I am saying: Saturday at Santa Anita I study the Form, watch race replays, review some workout sheets, and confer with a couple of sharp friends. I decide the only horse/race woth betting was Ron Ellis in the 7th. I have a 2k bankroll to start the day and it won't bother me to lose it all. The 7th rolls around and I have $500 left and play $100wp, $200 in pick 4's, and save a case $100 for later races. Horse wins at $6.80 $4.40 and I nab two pick 4's at $210 a piece. Wouldn't the move have been to hang out, pass six races and play something like $600wp and $200 in pick 4's and after the win, head home with a bigger bankroll for Sunday?

[ManeMediaMogul]

I have found it extremely helpful and more profitable to throw the pps of races I don't like into the waste basket and leave them home - No temptations to try and find a winner...bet on a tip...force a play when you don't have anything to look at.

[Stillriledup]

I always go to the track live. An example of what I am saying: Saturday at Santa Anita I study the Form, watch race replays, review some workout sheets, and confer with a couple of sharp friends. I decide the only horse/race woth betting was Ron Ellis in the 7th. I have a 2k bankroll to start the day and it won't bother me to lose it all. The 7th rolls around and I have $500 left and play $100wp, $200 in pick 4's, and save a case $100 for later races. Horse wins at $6.80 $4.40 and I nab two pick 4's at $210 a piece. Wouldn't the move have been to hang out, pass six races and play something like $600wp and $200 in pick 4's and after the win, head home with a bigger bankroll for Sunday?


Not necessarily. I think its good to bet more than 1 race a day, but you can't bet every race, gotta learn to pass races. The key for me when i go live is to figure out a way 'kill time' when i really don't like a race. I often surf Pace Advantage when i'm at the track, ya know, to keep myself busy so i don't bet something that's borderline and have more of an ability to skip races.

If you're just standing around looking at the odds and the form, a guy who's as prepared as you are will find some kind of 'edge' and try and exploit it.

I also think that if you love a 2-1 shot, don't bet place. If i were you, i'd single that horse in the pick 4 and don't bet win. Spend your a grand and single this 2-1 shot. Bet 10 and 20 dollar pick 4's (or even 100 dollar pick 4 part wheels if you can punch it very tight) and go for a monster score. You can actually make tens of thousands of dollars by singling a 2-1 shot in the pick 4 if the other races fall the right way.

I think if you love a 10-1 shot, i'd recommend like 500 to win and 200 to place, or, instead of the place bet, do a few exactas. What i'll often do is if i love a horse, lets say a 5-1 shot, i'll bet a grand to win and then do one 50 dollar cold exacta with the horse i fear the most with my pick for 2nd. Quite often, if you get beat, that horse you're scared of will beat you and you'll be 2nd and can get most or all your money back, or even make a profit depending on the price of your 'saver'.

[Stillriledup]

Here's one thing i've been very successful with on the 'saver' front. If i single a runner in the last race in the pick 4 and i somehow GET to that leg and i'm alive for a bunch of money, i'll do one HUGE exacta with a horse i fear over my pick 4 horse and quite often, i'll get beat by the horse i fear and i'll hit the cold exacta and make a bunch of money. I love singling the type of horse who, if he doesn't win, is a good candidate to finish 2nd, that way, i can crush a 'backup' exacta.

[chickenhead]

It took awhile but I finally got over the whole action bet / no opinion / low priced horse thing because I eventually got tired of throwing money away. It really is more fun to make money than lose it. I think that's basically what it boils down to, it's not discipline.

It's the same reason I don't touch hot stoves -- cause it sucks to get burnt fingers. Action / no opinion bets are the same, it just takes a little longer to figure it out.

[46zilzal]

Get Fiero's book, Four Quarters of Horse Investing and learn how it is systematically done.

[valueguy]

Get Fiero's book, Four Quarters of Horse Investing and learn how it is systematically done.
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."


Agree 100% with 46 .Putting together a value line using a template
is quick ,easy and will get you all the action you can handle.
Its a very simply premise ,if you havn,t got an edge you don,t bet.
:)

[JohnGalt1]

Action bets=gambling.

Think of your wagering as investing.

You play every race--do you buy every stock? No, you should buy stock/ bet on horses, in only the few companies/races you have researched/handicapped and believe have value and can make you money/profit.

Discover your strengths. You wager on 15-20 races a day. Do you win certain types of races? Do you win most sprints, but lose most turf races for example? Do you win/make a profit with pick threes but lose money on trifectas?

Avoiding YOUR losing situations will leave you with more winning situations.

[Ejmenz]

Just about everyone is saying the same thing in one way or another.

You MUST keep detailed records.

You'll find your strength and weakness' that way.

After six months I found something really simple that made all the difference in the world to my ROI.

If my plays were at least 4-1 I showed a profit, under 4-1 my ROI dropped to $1.70

It was a simple thing that made a huge difference a long time ago.

Start today :)

[Sundown]

I have a 2k bankroll to start the day and it won't bother me to lose it all.

Should we say thanks and ask if you have any brothers?

Seriously, I don't have your bankroll but do have similar tendencies. Two suggestions: 1. Carry two bankrolls one for serious bets and the other for action bets. When the roll for action is done it's done. 2. If you're not interested in what the odds are at post time lay all your serious bets early.

[The Hawk]

Here's what I do: Play the races you like first, early, no matter how far off they are on the card. Put the plays in as if it's 2 minutes to post, for every race you like. You'll need to keep tabs on odds and scratches as the day progresses, and you can cancel if something develops that you don't like, but you'll ensure you're making your biggest plays on your best bets.

Leave yourself some money for "action", if you need to, and if you win you'll be able to then bet even more on your top plays, maybe even manually parlay a few into them. You'll find that the anticipation leading up to your plays is much better than the dread you feel when your best play is upcoming and you're down 80% of your bankroll on the day.

[Bettowin]

Need your help people. I consider myself an above average capper but need help/advice on how to make it payoff. Been going to the races since youth and have always bet just about every race (1-2 tracks a day). If you ask me each weekend for my best 6 plays, I will win 65-75% of the time but my reckless ways get the best of me. I sometimes bet more on a race with no opinion then a race I may like. I have told myself going into the day to show restraint but the action gets the best of me time and time again. I can afford losing but also know I can make good money sticking to my guns and just hammer the key races but I don't have the stones or discipline to make it work. I love going to the races and don't want it to be a costly habit, is there any advise anyone can give me to cross that bridge? Thanks in advance.

Eliminate these two flaws and you will be on your way.

[Igeteven]

I will win 65-75%


I only win, if I am lucky about 33 percent, how on earth do you do it.



I would really like to know.


Lester

[thaskalos]

I always go to the track live. An example of what I am saying: Saturday at Santa Anita I study the Form, watch race replays, review some workout sheets, and confer with a couple of sharp friends. I decide the only horse/race woth betting was Ron Ellis in the 7th. I have a 2k bankroll to start the day and it won't bother me to lose it all. The 7th rolls around and I have $500 left and play $100wp, $200 in pick 4's, and save a case $100 for later races. Horse wins at $6.80 $4.40 and I nab two pick 4's at $210 a piece. Wouldn't the move have been to hang out, pass six races and play something like $600wp and $200 in pick 4's and after the win, head home with a bigger bankroll for Sunday? The size of the daily bankroll, and the size of the bets one makes, says very little about his maturity as a player. If, as you say, you have been playing this game for a long time, you should start taking it more seriously. Betting every race, and squandering 75% of your daily bankroll before your top play even comes around is not serious gambling - even if you are betting serious amounts. It is fooling around.

Without discipline a player has no chance in this game. It is not a game that generally favors the bold. If you are serious about showing a profit, you are going to have to sacrifice some of the entertainment value of betting every race, and start passing races. Bring a smaller bankroll to the track until your discipline grows. Remember, the winning players try to play their "A" game as often as possible. This game has ruined too many players to be taken as lightly as you seem to be taking it.

You say that your daily bankroll is 2 thousand, and that it wouldn't bother you if you lost it all. That's the wrong attitude, IMO. You should be prepared to lose it all, but it should bother you. That bother helps you grow as a player.

I am not pretending to have all the answers...I am just telling you some things that it took me 20 years to learn...

[Roy C]

Let me correct myself by saying it does bother me to a point but it is not my meal or rent money that I am playing with. I am prepared to lose whatever I bring but I do not enjoy it.

[Trotman]

Forget the action bets they ruin the bankroll and mindset.
"DON'T LOOK FOR SOMETHING NOT THERE" zero in on the winnable bets