Getting over tough beats

[W2G]

What's your remedy? Take a break, get right back at it or something else?

[Robert Goren]

What's your remedy? Take a break, get right back at it or something else?Whiskey

[johnhannibalsmith]

Generally, I accept it quickly, but if it really eats at me and I stew over it, I wait until I accept it and move on before I get back to investing.

[illinoisbred]

Forget about it, move on, more races to come. Easy to say, not always easy to do. My last really tough beat was a DQ on a 15-1 the day before halloween last fall at Hawthorne-it was the last race of the day and I had a dinner reservation I had to keep so I bet and left. Came home watched the replay,yelled I won and checked my balance-no bigger,went to the DRF chart and saw the big D in a box alongside his name-oh shit.

Another thing, after the dust settles and you go back and review the races,and particularily if you make your own figures, there's often some consolation in saying that the horse pretty much ran what I expected, another one just ran better.

[DeanT]

If you keep track (mentally) of the times you benefited from someone else's bad beat (which made it your 'fortunate win') it makes one feel better about riding the luck/bad luck wave (imo).

When my mindset is that I will have some bad beats and some good wins over time, I dont get too upset in the first place where I have to remedy the situation by taking a break, or whatever, and it makes the game more enjoyable.

[Stillriledup]

Experience is the only way.

It took me many years to get over the tough beats (usually bogus DQs from the men playing god with my money) but now i'm able to handle most situations. If i had a dime for everytime i was blocked, dq'd or got a horrible ride that cost me many thousands, i would be able to retire to a waterfront home in Malibu.

[Johnny V]

It is just part of the game and I have learned to accept it and live with it. When my horse wins by a nostril or I get put up by DQ I don't let it stay with me too long either. I figure the reverse should be the same. It is gambling and I have accepted the fact that there are plenty of ways to lose.

[1st time lasix]

I have had my share recently....not just the missed photos, steward calls and bad trips in a single race.....the more emotional distress just missing when alive for a pick four and pick six! Also in past 48 hours had my rental car stolen at hotel while traveling to attend my mom's funeral. Not only long delays ....but my luggage was lost by the airline too :bang: :bang: :mad:

[Leonard]

Whiskey

On a particulary bad day of close beats it can make losing almost enjoyable.

[ManeMediaMogul]

It is just part of the game and I have learned to accept it and live with it. When my horse wins by a nostril or I get put up by DQ I don't let it stay with me too long either. I figure the reverse should be the same. It is gambling and I have accepted the fact that there are plenty of ways to lose.

With experience you learn to let it all go. Your friends at the dinner table should never know whether you won 50 grand or lost five. You should be the same either way - that's the quiet confidence of a winner.

"Lose your money but not your personality."
Charles Whittingham

[Jeff P]

You have to realize going in that:

1. Emotion has no place whatsoever when it comes to being a successful bettor.

2. Emotion (from bad beats, DQs, lost photos, blown rides, breakdowns, etc.) has the ability to derail you as a bettor if you allow it to.

You can't control what happens out there on the racetrack. But you CAN control how YOU react to it.

Therefore: IMHO, you have to be willing to accept the following no matter what happens:

Bad beats are part of the game.

Forget coulda would shoulda... Whenever I suffer a bad beat (hey I had the runner up in the Florida Derby and lost a close photo at 25-1)(as a matter of fact I lost about 8 out of 10 photos last week that horses I bet were involved in) I ask myself the following question:

Did I bet the race that I just lost properly? IOW, was it a good bet... one with a positive expectancy?... One that I would want to play again exactly the same way several thousand times if faced with the same or similar circumstances?

If the answer is yes, then realize you are doing things right... and that it's time to move on and move on quickly.

The best way for me to do that is to ask myself the following question... which btw I learned several years ago from a professional poker player:

What should I be doing next?

The best thing I can do after suffering a bad beat is to ask myself that last question and quickly move on.


-jp

.

[sam i am]

CJ might have an answer after watching the Maryland/Mich St. game Sunday.

That was a tough beat.

SIA

[markgoldie]

If you keep track (mentally) of the times you benefited from someone else's bad beat (which made it your 'fortunate win') it makes one feel better about riding the luck/bad luck wave (imo).

When my mindset is that I will have some bad beats and some good wins over time, I dont get too upset in the first place where I have to remedy the situation by taking a break, or whatever, and it makes the game more enjoyable.
You have mentioned an important principle here. Through the years, I have noticed that bettors have the tendency to assume that races in which they win went exactly as they should have and races where they lose were due to some form of bad luck- jockey decisions, bad trips, narrow losses in photos, DQs, etc.

However, if you play enough races, you'll find through close analysis that it doesn't take all that long for the luck to even out. You cashed just as many tickets through DQs, bad rides, bad racing luck and narrow photo calls as you lost.

Consequently, the only unfortunate "mistake" you should ever worry about is the one in which you played the race improperly. And, of course, that's because this is something over which you have input and control. Honing your playing skills will make you a better player. Crying over bad luck will only disrupt your mental processes.

Most of all, remember that due to the inherent vagueries of handicapping and racing, EVERY win is a product of some degree of luck as is EVERY loss.

[magwell]

I find over time they even out, just doesnt seem that way when the bad beats happen. :cool:

[Stillriledup]

I find over time they even out, just doesnt seem that way when the bad beats happen. :cool:

They don't always even out. I got DQ'd on a bush league call out of a pick 6 for 200k many years ago.....by that one DQ alone, i'm in the red as far as DQs go....i've never been put up for anything close to that kind of money.

[therussmeister]

I am never concerned with the outcome of any individual bet, only the next 100 bets.

[Dalton]

They don't always even out. I got DQ'd on a bush league call out of a pick 6 for 200k many years ago.....by that one DQ alone, i'm in the red as far as DQs go....i've never been put up for anything close to that kind of money.

I agree. never had a DQ hand me a 5 or 6 digit payout, but had some take it away. Photos, I've had both ways.

I watched a race at FG a couple weeks ago where the 'winning' horse pushed the runner up half way across the track during the stretch. It was probably the most obvious DQ of all time, but they didn't DQ him. Why? I'm convinced it was because the runner up was the one on my pick 4.

[Trotman]

Markgoldie words of wisdom and same from MMM just let it go. I have won some where I must have been the only one thinking it's coming down only to find my horse sticks and I have been on the other side wondering why they took me down in the end it does even out.

[W2G]

What a bounty of great feedback. If you play long enough there's little doubt you'll end up on both sides of the coin eventually, such is the game. Still, when the wound is fresh it's tough to find solace in wisdom. But in retrospect I could not have bet the race differently, even defensively. My annual dues to the racing gods are paid in full. ;)

[ranchwest]

Stuff happens.

Friday night I was at LS and had a horse to place at DED. It looked hopeless. All of a sudden the lead horse took a left turn and ran into the rail. My horse moved up for the place.

The guy standing next to me was going to cash for about $1,000, but his horse was the one that took the left turn.

If you're winning long-term, things will work out. Yeah, DQs, bad rides, horse craziness, geese flying into horses. Wierd stuff happens.

Just one suggestion, yell once if you must, then:

Turn the page.

[Cubbymac26]

I agree. never had a DQ hand me a 5 or 6 digit payout, but had some take it away. Photos, I've had both ways.

I watched a race at FG a couple weeks ago where the 'winning' horse pushed the runner up half way across the track during the stretch. It was probably the most obvious DQ of all time, but they didn't DQ him. Why? I'm convinced it was because the runner up was the one on my pick 4.


was that that 2-11 or 11-2 number on a monday it was a bs call :bang:

[PhantomOnTour]

Many definitions of what a tough beat is. IMO, photos pretty much even out and I can accept losing them as part of the game. It's the really tough beats like Storming Home in the Arl Million or Hawksley Hill in the BC Mile when he let Da Hoss come back on him (I was slow to learn that HH let everyone come back on him)...those really hurt. Traffic/trip trouble produce the toughest beats usually as the best horse (yours ofcourse) somehow doesn't get up.

I will normally shrug it off and move on, but sometimes it sends me on a long walk. It keeps from tilting.

[jefftune]

Yeah it sucks when you have a 29-1 shot to win and he gets nosed out (Pleasant Prince), but it really does even out in the long run. I'll bitch a bit, but just look ahead to the next race.

Jeff Tune
www.angelfire.com/pa/tune (http://www.angelfire.com/pa/tune)

[2low]

I hardly ever assign lower than 2/1 to a horse. At best, I give a horse a 33% chance to win a race. There are no bad beats, only lucky wins.

That's my mindset and I'm sticking to it:)

[markgoldie]

They don't always even out. I got DQ'd on a bush league call out of a pick 6 for 200k many years ago.....by that one DQ alone, i'm in the red as far as DQs go....i've never been put up for anything close to that kind of money.
The point I was making about luck being inherent in all plays even extends to this bad beat that you mention. For example, from the tone of your post, we can assume that you are not a player who routinely invests large sums of money in pick sixes such that being in a position to cash a $200k number is a normal state of affairs. In fact, it is most likely exceedingly rare. Since it is so rare, it should give you some idea of the odds against being alive going into the last leg of such a wager. That, coupled with the conversion of the last leg (only to be taken down), therefore requires a monsterous conversion of good luck in the first place. In fact, I think we can safely extrapolate that the sum total of good luck in the wager far exceeded the bad. This, despite the fact that the tale ends in tragedy.

However, this goes to my point about the natural tendency to believe that everything which goes right is a function of inevitability, while everything that goes wrong is a function of rotten luck. But we have all seen bombshell-priced animals reverse form and throw huge races, either winning or finishing high on the gimmick ticket. And we have seen 1-5 "mortal locks" fail to pick up their feet. So there simply is NO inevitability of result in this game.

So the next time your 25-1 shot gets beat a nose in a photo, you may console yourself by being aware that a great measure of luck was required to get him that close in the first place. The goal of a successful player should be to ignore the effects of luck completely. Try taking the word completely out of your racing vocabulary. This is achieved by understanding that a degree of randomness exists in every event- win, lose, or draw. Save your energy for fine tuning the things you can control.

[46zilzal]

Yeah it sucks when you have a 29-1 shot to win and he gets nosed out (Pleasant Prince), but it really does even out in the long run. I'll bitch a bit, but just look ahead to the next race.


I make a substantial part of my profit finding pace horses that hang on paying much bigger mutuels than the winner.....

if a horse is at 4/1 or better, back it up

[elhelmete]

Only bad beat I had that bothered me was a malfunctioning SAM and a one-time-in-my-life occurrence of not checking my ticket. I confirmed the SAM was malfunctioning on the next race...got it to repeat the same sort of error it made (didn't hit the 'finish' button on that test, of course).

And that was only really a $20 win bet on a 9-2 shot.

99% my fault for not checking.

[dav4463]

I make a substantial part of my profit finding pace horses that hang on paying much bigger mutuels than the winner.....

if a horse is at 4/1 or better, back it up

I back up only 6/1 or higher, but I agree with this post. If I was a straight win bettor; I would be down for my last 50 races.....place betting has shown a profit and made up for the slight loss in win betting. Maybe win betting only has a higher ROI over the long term, but for this short term, the money won by place betting has kept me in the game, bought a few things I need, and made me feel good!

[GlenninOhio]

I back up only 6/1 or higher, but I agree with this post. If I was a straight win bettor; I would be down for my last 50 races.....place betting has shown a profit and made up for the slight loss in win betting. Maybe win betting only has a higher ROI over the long term, but for this short term, the money won by place betting has kept me in the game, bought a few things I need, and made me feel good!

This is an excellent point. :ThmbUp:

When we engage in any type of speculation that has a small probability of success for any one outcome, the emotional stress can be huge even if there is a nice positive expectancy.

Nassim Taleb in his classic stock market book "Fooled By Randomness" refers to the "emotional deficit" that builds up when trading strategies that have very low win rates but very high expected returns (in this case, buying "low delta" equity options).

This poster attacks this emotional deficit by backing up his win bets with place bets and thus increasing the percentage of tickets he cashes and also avoiding the emotional turmoil associated with the "all or nothing" result of a bad beat in the win pool. As he says, this has kept him in the game, which in the end transcends a pure ROI analysis of win vs. place betting.

[Stillriledup]

The point I was making about luck being inherent in all plays even extends to this bad beat that you mention. For example, from the tone of your post, we can assume that you are not a player who routinely invests large sums of money in pick sixes such that being in a position to cash a $200k number is a normal state of affairs. In fact, it is most likely exceedingly rare. Since it is so rare, it should give you some idea of the odds against being alive going into the last leg of such a wager. That, coupled with the conversion of the last leg (only to be taken down), therefore requires a monsterous conversion of good luck in the first place. In fact, I think we can safely extrapolate that the sum total of good luck in the wager far exceeded the bad. This, despite the fact that the tale ends in tragedy.

However, this goes to my point about the natural tendency to believe that everything which goes right is a function of inevitability, while everything that goes wrong is a function of rotten luck. But we have all seen bombshell-priced animals reverse form and throw huge races, either winning or finishing high on the gimmick ticket. And we have seen 1-5 "mortal locks" fail to pick up their feet. So there simply is NO inevitability of result in this game.

So the next time your 25-1 shot gets beat a nose in a photo, you may console yourself by being aware that a great measure of luck was required to get him that close in the first place. The goal of a successful player should be to ignore the effects of luck completely. Try taking the word completely out of your racing vocabulary. This is achieved by understanding that a degree of randomness exists in every event- win, lose, or draw. Save your energy for fine tuning the things you can control.

This is cutting edge stuff, thanks for posting.

I know exactly what you are saying. One of the things that i try and tell myself is that bad beats aren't really bad beats if they happen too often. An event that happens more than once in a decade or once every few years might be considered a bad beat. In horse racing, 'bad beats' happen almost every day. if you play a dozen races or more per day and bet all kinds of exotics, you are almost certainly going to lose some money by a nose somewhere. A bad beat? Not really, although the loss of the money you ALMOST had stings.

I was just talking about being down lifetime in DQs, i frequently play large sums into pick 6s and as you well know, its hard to come alive to 200k or more. In this particular pick 6, i was DQ'd in the 5th leg and my 'single' won th final leg by a million lengths at even money. So, the DQ wasnt as painful as it might have been if it happened in the 6th leg.

I guess when you come down to it, if you play horses for 1,000 years, that might be a big enough sample to have all things even out. If you play horses for 40 years, well, that might be too small a sample and a 200k DQ might keep you in red on DQs lifetime.

The ability to 'turn the page' on events like this is what seperates the very good from the great. I have taken a lot from bad fortune, whether its a DQ or a nose loss or a bad ride and tried to use the pain to become stronger. I have been able to grow from bad events and they've made me stronger. When this huge DQ happened to me, i was just coming into my own mentally to be able to handle this type of stuff. If that happened to me today, i would be able to shrug it off and turn the page like nothing happened and that comes from deep and profound 'beats' and experiences i've suffered over the decades.

[castaway01]

This is an excellent point. :ThmbUp:

When we engage in any type of speculation that has a small probability of success for any one outcome, the emotional stress can be huge even if there is a nice positive expectancy.

Nassim Taleb in his classic stock market book "Fooled By Randomness" refers to the "emotional deficit" that builds up when trading strategies that have very low win rates but very high expected returns (in this case, buying "low delta" equity options).

This poster attacks this emotional deficit by backing up his win bets with place bets and thus increasing the percentage of tickets he cashes and also avoiding the emotional turmoil associated with the "all or nothing" result of a bad beat in the win pool. As he says, this has kept him in the game, which in the end transcends a pure ROI analysis of win vs. place betting.

I've dropped all backing up because my records show it's a waste of money for me personally, but if it helps your emotional stability then I would wager that it's worth it.

[dav4463]

I play a lot of longshots and hit many place bets that pay double digits. So for me, place betting is a big part of my game.