For Longshot Players

[dav4463]

What are the tracks, types of races, field size, etc... that longshot players should concentrate on playing? Or do you think longshots are so random that they can occur anytime, anywhere?

Does anyone ever bet two horses both to WIN and PLACE in the same race? I have before in races where my two picks were both over 10-1, but I feel this should not be done very often. However, a good longshot player may be able to do it successfully. I'm not sure.

[Overlay]

Mike Nunamaker did both an abridged and unabridged study specifically of longshots. Here's a link to them on his former site, which is apparently no longer in business. However, perhaps the studies would be available from other outlets, such as Gambler's Book Club or American Turf Monthly.

http://www.minnow.com/racing/books2.html

[Stillriledup]

Gulfstream and Keeneland are good longshot tracks.

[Track Collector]

For whatever reason(s), Pen has been paying quite a few whoppers since the beginning of 2010.

[windoor]

I depend on the long shot to consistently show a profit. The low odd horses just help me to break even until the big one hits.

I never play a horse to place, but once had a horse go off over hundred to one only to run second. I had a $50 win ticket and the teller at the $50 window (yes this was a long time ago) laughed his ass off at me when I showed him my losing ticket. Still, over the long haul, the win bet has always showed a better profit for me.

I live off the cheaper claimers (up to 25K) and believe this is where the best pay offs are. That and maiden races.

I often (about 40% of the time) play more than one horse to win. This was huge for me, and was the turning point for showing a consistent profit. Nearly seven months now, and so far so good. December and February were not very good, but still profitable.

For the most part you need full fields and "chaos" type races to hit the big ones. Races where all horse look like they have a chance, or races where they all look pathetic.

As far as which tracks to play, I stay away from any speed favoring tracks, tracks with a clear bias, and of course any tracks that don't run a lot of cheaper claiming races. I also have never done well at tracks like Charles Town and Penn National. A little to cheap there, for me.

Regards,

Windoor

[Donnie]

top 10 or so last 365....

Track LS% AvgWin LS RacesTotal Race Rating Average Field

BRD 23.26% $43.68 30 129 102 9.93
KEE 26.64% $35.17 81 304 94 9.38
DED 23.06% $36.61 214 928 84 9.12
WRD 21.56% $38.28 72 334 83 9.37
RP 23.37% $34.98 136 582 82 9.5
CNL 26.44% $30.68 101 382 81 8.92
PEN 22.49% $35.61 392 1743 80 9.19
TAM 22.25% $35.09 212 953 78 9.08
ELP 22.91% $33.56 52 227 77 9.23
LBG 25.54% $30.09 47 184 77 7.36

[WinterTriangle]

I depend on the long shot to consistently show a profit. The low odd horses just help me to break even until the big one hits.

I never play a horse to place, but once had a horse go off over hundred to one only to run second. I had a $50 win ticket and the teller at the $50 window (yes this was a long time ago) laughed his ass off at me when I showed him my losing ticket. Still, over the long haul, the win bet has always showed a better profit for me.

I live off the cheaper claimers (up to 25K) and believe this is where the best pay offs are. That and maiden races.

I often (about 40% of the time) play more than one horse to win. This was huge for me, and was the turning point for showing a consistent profit. Nearly seven months now, and so far so good. December and February were not very good, but still profitable.

For the most part you need full fields and "chaos" type races to hit the big ones. Races where all horse look like they have a chance, or races where they all look pathetic.

As far as which tracks to play, I stay away from any speed favoring tracks, tracks with a clear bias, and of course any tracks that don't run a lot of cheaper claiming races. I also have never done well at tracks like Charles Town and Penn National. A little to cheap there, for me.

Regards,

Windoor

I like so much of what you had to say, Windoor, including the "too cheap" tracks.

I'm glad to hear that as a longshot player you can generate a consistent profit. I'm quite sure it can be done, esp. since you explained the kinds of tracks you stay away from.

Maiden races on slop are goldmines using pedigree stats. LOL Ton of these at Oaklawn this year, as we've had terrible weather.

[appistappis]

smaller tracks, sprints only, maidens and especially nw1, nw2....lots of patience.

[windoor]

[QUOTE=I'm glad to hear that as a longshot player you can generate a consistent profit.[/QUOTE]

I wouldn’t say I was long shot player and much as I play horses that sometimes go off at long odds.

That is, I turn off M/L odds on my PP’s from Post Time Daily as to not have any affect on my choices. I also place my wagers early with no regards to the odds. This goes against the grain for most here, but it seems to work well quite well for me.

Regards,

Windoor

[BIG HIT]

Mostly play just claimer's and ALW OPT claimer play these kind as easyier condition for me spt rte turf all ok.Track's surprizeing gulfstream santanita aqu and don't play a lot pen charles town beu but will admit thisle down just poor can't beat

[Johnny V]

Mike Nunamaker did both an abridged and unabridged study specifically of longshots. Here's a link to them on his former site, which is apparently no longer in business. However, perhaps the studies would be available from other outlets, such as Gambler's Book Club or American Turf Monthly.

http://www.minnow.com/racing/books2.html
I called the Gamblers' Book Club and ATM and neither one has a copy of Nunamaker's longshot study.

[Overlay]

I called the Gamblers' Book Club and ATM and neither one has a copy of Nunamaker's longshot study.

In that case, I believe that Mike is still a PA member. Try PM'ing him, or sending him an e-mail. His user name (oddly enough) is MichaelNunamaker.

[Overlay]

Mike Nunamaker just responded to me by PM that neither his unabridged nor abridged longshot study is any longer available from him, or from any outlet that he is aware of.

[Overlay]

What are the tracks, types of races, field size, etc... that longshot players should concentrate on playing? Or do you think longshots are so random that they can occur anytime, anywhere?

After reading Quirin's Winning at the Races many years ago, I got in the habit of looking for factors that Quirin had found to be positive independent variables (the kind that he indicated with a single asterisk, and that he said were responsible by themselves for the winning percentages associated with them, without being dependent on interactions with other variables). (To me, this seemed to address the common situation where horses with a better overall chance of winning than indicated by an otherwise positive factor would get bet down below fair value to a level where any profits would dry up, while those that did not get bet down to underlay status would not win frequently enough to produce a positive return.) However, most of those independent factors (such as speed-point leaders; horses with eight speed points; horses that had shown a taxing stretch or final quarter-mile drive (as defined by Quirin) in their latest race; or sprinters that were making a quick turnaround (within ten days) after a "good race") would be the type that the public would usually key on, so overlays were seldom produced.

The only such factor that I recall not being related to form was post position -- specifically post position 1 in either dirt sprints of six furlongs or less (12.1% winning percentage) or two-turn dirt routes of 1 to 1-1/8 miles (16.1%), on tracks where the main dirt oval was at least one mile in circumference; or post positions 1-3 in two-turn turf races at the same tracks (15.5% for each of those three positions). Just throwing that out for what it may be worth.

[Overlay]

Two other thoughts:

(1) There were three factors (at that time) that Quirin found acted in combination to improve the performance of any other positive factor or angle to which they might be added:

1) a race (regardless of finish) within the past ten days
2) at least one win in the horse's last ten starts (no matter how far back)
3) at least one Quirin speed point

As Quirin said, the one win showed that the horse still knew how to win, the early-speed component indicated that it was still capable of getting into position to win, and the recent action requirement spoke to the stable's intentions.

(2) Perhaps it would also be worthwhile to consider horses whose recent records don't necessarily look good, but whose "bad races" are not "failures" (as defined by Quirin)(basically, where the horse has an excuse for any poor performances since its latest "good race"). (See Quirin for a detailed definition.) (Horses with no failures in their records had a 15.0% winning percentage, and horses with one failure won at a 9.6% rate.) The public might be drawn off horses in such seemingly bad form if they don't look deep enough into their records to detect the reasons or excuses for poor recent races.

[deathandgravity]

couple angles I like to play:

Maidens: speed and fade last out + 1st time lasix (produced a nice one @ AQU on SAT)

Maidens: slop/turf pedigree plays

Wife: the pretty horse (best ROI of the bunch)

[Johnny V]

Mike Nunamaker just responded to me by PM that neither his unabridged nor abridged longshot study is any longer available from him, or from any outlet that he is aware of.
Thanks for the info.

[dav4463]

Some great info. Thanks. There is a lot of information to be learned on this board.

PA have you ever thought of going through the zillions of posts on this board over the years and putting out a handicapping book?

I think it would sell very well. If you include anything I've ever posted.....I would only want a small royalty! ;)

[jasperson]

I hit most of my longshot in maiden and turf races.

[skate]

Yep, i would think that Maidens, with several non starts would bring longer prices.

With that said, a Price is where you find it. Natch, if a bigger handle is found, then chances are that a bigger price, on average, will follow.

Hence, s. cal, some Ny , some Flo and now maybe Philly. With all those tracks, you need a BIG field.

I find that some players are just not tuned to PRICE, they gotta play chalkey.

[46zilzal]

I hit most of my longshot in maiden and turf races.
That has been my experience......BIGGEST two were maiden turfers in fact.

[Overlay]

I was just looking at Nunamaker's Modern Impact Values for any findings of possible interest, and noted that, in his breakdown of last-race comment lines, the comment "lug" (which I guess he applied to horses that the chart maker noted as having lugged either in or out) was used for 298 horses (out of his total sample of 111,700 horses in 12,815 races), of which 52 won their next start, for an impact value of 1.53, and a $NET of $2.36 (18% profit) (the only comment that showed a positive ROI). (There's no mention of any layoff information following the "lug" comment, so I can't tell how quickly the 52 winners came back.) The number of horses and winners is minuscule compared to the total sample size, but I'm trying to figure out what possible mechanism might have accounted for the positive next-race results, or if it might be a fluke attributable to the small proportion of horses involved (despite the relatively high impact value), and a few long prices that skewed the resulting $NET. (Of course, I suppose that there may also have been other horses that lugged, but the chart maker just did not catch it, or did not note it in the comment line, for whatever reason.)