Two plays in NY for Sunday

[cees with dees]

Playing a DD in the fourth race starting with Missing Link who stretches and draws the rail while in the easiest spot of his career.
Not much price wise but absolutely nothing to beat.
Looking long in the fifth going against Air Lord with both fists.
Matthew TC is the speed from the rail and was okay chasing in last in a race I think he needed. Takes these a long way from the rail.
Admirality stretches out off what appear to be mediocre sprints but could find himself in the garden spot if Matthew controls, puts away, then tires.
Either or at a good number.
Moving to the 8th and I'm chalking out big time here. Hour Glass is inside with the perfect style in race loaded with need the lead stuff.
In the 9th, K's Revenge drops to the basement adding blinkers and may be a fair win price if Hour Glass wins the 8th because with everyone alive in the DD, the win pool may be neglected to the tune of 4/5.
Good luck to all
Ben

[Light]

Playing a DD in the fourth race starting with Missing Link who stretches and draws the rail while in the easiest spot of his career.

This 3YO is going long against older for the first time in his career. I wouldn't call that "the easiest spot"

Not much price wise but absolutely nothing to beat.


You need to stop using that "nothing to beat here" bullshit line. This is what happpened the last time you said that on 3/16.

...with Razzledazzleme and the more I look at that race, Razzle has nothing to beat here.

Razzle finished 4th in a field of 6 at even money. Apparently there was plenty to beat here. You use that dismissive line for the rest of a field quite a bit in your analysis.This reminds me of TVG analysts who talk about 2 or 3 favorites in a race and never mention the winner until after the race. Looking at races with tunnel vision is the last thing you want to do.

I have nothing against your picks. Just don't dismiss the rest of the field like they dont exist. If you really felt that way,you would be betting the ranch on your "nothing to beat here" horses and be in the poor house. If I was a bookie,I would love to take your action. You give me the field and you take your mortal locks.

[the little guy]

Where are your pre-race picks Light?

Did you watch the Razzlemedazzleme race? Do you know what transpired that led to her losing?

Stop worrying about other people and put something useful up before races are run....or don't lecture people who do.

[letswastemoney]

I appreciate that you are one of the few posters that gives some insight and detail into why you choose the horses you've chosen.

These are good picks. I'll be watching to see how they do.

[timtam]

It almost seems like Light lost a bet using cees with dees info :confused:

[HUSKER55]

iF YOU DON'T PICK YOUR OWN YOU DESERVE WHAT YOU GET

[lamboguy]

generally the younger horses running against older in maiden's and nw2's are finding easier spots than if they were running against straight 3 yo's. also horses at bottom level new york breds that need to go long are as weak as it gets.

i am just speaking from generalities, but cee's and dee's is right, and i have watched his posts and he has alot of knowledge about this game, and has reasonably good picks all the time. the man does his work and there is no need to smash the guy over the head for putting in a big effort and giving his reason's which happen to be very sound.

[lamboguy]

I appreciate that you are one of the few posters that gives some insight and detail into why you choose the horses you've chosen.

These are good picks. I'll be watching to see how they do.
i am not even betting his picks today, but i hope like hell they all win big

[Exotic1]

cees with dees: Thanks for sharing your insight and gleanings of hard work.

the little guy: excellent response imho, you covered the facts.

and I'll echo lamboguy "i hope like hell they all win big"

[Light]

Where are your pre-race picks Light?

That's irrelavent to what I was talking about. And if I do give picks,I would never dismiss the field with a "nothing to beat here" comment. That has to be the most naive comment an analyst can make. What happened to Rachel,hmm?

Did you watch the Razzlemedazzleme race? Do you know what transpired that led to her losing?

Actually didn't watch it,but if the horse had trouble,that is another reason why you should never assume a horse is a lock

Stop worrying about other people and put something useful up before races are run....or don't lecture people who do.

I'm not worried about what he is doing. I'm just pointing out a stupid comment he keeps repeating.

[Light]

It almost seems like Light lost a bet using cees with dees info :confused:


Why in the world would I ever use an analyst's picks? I finished 23rd in the country in the drf nhc contest last January. That tells me that I know how to handicap better than the vast majority of players. But even if that fact didn't exist, I also know most analysts ROI is in the toilet. I think I have proved that.

[PhantomOnTour]

If cees is repeating a stupid comment why do you stupidly continue to read it...every time? Seems you would ignore his posts, or does he have something to offer that you find valuable?

IMO I like cees posts....he put me on a winner while home sick (i am still home sick...5 days now :( ) and hopin he will do so again today, as concentrating on horses is very challenging when under the weather.
Keep it up dude, and glad you are doing better, cees.

[Light]

If cees is repeating a stupid comment why do you stupidly continue to read it...every time? Seems you would ignore his posts, or does he have something to offer that you find valuable?


You know,this is called a "message board" because it is an exchange of ideas. It does irritate me when I see an experienced capper saying "there is nothing to beat here". They run horses on the track not on paper for a reason.

[the little guy]

Why in the world would I ever use an analyst's picks? I finished 23rd in the country in the drf nhc contest last January. That tells me that I know how to handicap better than the vast majority of players. But even if that fact didn't exist, I also know most analysts ROI is in the toilet. I think I have proved that.


Did YOU?

Funny, I thought you weren't even there, and somebody ( obviously not as clever as you....since he doesn't believe in your advice in this thread ) asked for your assistance.

What contest did YOU win to qualify?

[46zilzal]

You know,this is called a "message board" because it is an exchange of ideas. .
most forget that....

[exiles]

[QUOTE=Light]Why in the world would I ever use an analyst's picks? I finished 23rd in the country in the drf nhc contest last January.

Light, 1s,t did you know that DRF NHC contest is nothing more than a lottery, the luckiest person wins those contests every year, so you finished 23d in a lottery, 2nd CEES doe's a very good job of analyzing each race, and it is obvious that he has a very good line on the majority of horses racing at AQU .

[castaway01]

most forget that....

Where was the exchange of ideas? Light said he didn't like the way Cees phrased his comments, so he crapped on them. As usual, Light didn't have or offer any ideas except to be King Troll.

[Light]

Did YOU?

Funny, I thought you weren't even there, and somebody ( obviously not as clever as you....since he doesn't believe in your advice in this thread ) asked for your assistance.

Yes I was a team with another capper. We split the workload and my picks earned us 10th place after day 1. I had 4 winners and 1 bogus dq. The other guy had 1 winner.

What contest did YOU win to qualify?

You're right, I didn't win the qualifier because I was too lazy to go down to the track and play. He put the ticket in and after winning the qualifier asked me to go in with him. Without me,we wouldn't even have finshed 23rd. Without him, I may have done better as 3 tracks I was responsible for in day 2 were scratched. We had to use his picks mostly on day 2 and plumetted to 23rd. He's even apologized to me for f*****g up.

[Light]

Light, 1s,t did you know that DRF NHC contest is nothing more than a lottery, the luckiest person wins those contests every year, so you finished 23d in a lottery,

The only lottery part about it is how good you are the day you play and what kind of cards are being presented for the contest. Otherwise,it takes skill to single $30 horses when there are 5 or 6 other $30 horses in a full field.

2nd CEES doe's a very good job of analyzing each race, and it is obvious that he has a very good line on the majority of horses racing at AQU .

Another one of his can't lose,nothing to beat horses bites the dust.

... Missing Link ...
Not much price wise but absolutely nothing to beat.

The only thing "absolute" was how ridiculous a statement that is and turned out to be.

[the little guy]

You're right, TLG, I actually had next to nothing to do with it.

FTFY.

[Light]

Dude,my partner had a phone bill over $500 from his hotel room in Vegas after his cell phone failed and he had to use the land line at the hotel to get my picks.

[cees with dees]

Wow. Not expecting this at all.
I have a strong opinion in certain races but that doesn't mean I have to be right.
I also bet everything I mention on here.
In defense of Razzlemedazzleme, he got carved up by the one in that race and I never expected not to get loose there.
Today, Missing Link came up bad and if you look at the winners lines, they are quite similar. Right idea, wrong horse.
Even after finishing third, I still think Missing Link had nothing to beat today and he still lost. That's racing.
Bottom line is, everyone of us will have more losers than winners. And if I didn't have a strong opinion, I wouldn't have so much confidence in putting the money in the windows.
I made two plays today and the $6.90 late DD made me a winner on the day. And when all is said and done, that's what playing this game is all about.
Good luck Light and thanks for your posts. You could have done it in a nicer manner though.
Ben

[cees with dees]

Oh, and by the way, John Conte won the big contest in Vegas last year.
Need I say more??
The way they run those things make it possible for literally anyone to win.
As long as the standings are posted race by race, everyone knows exactly what they need to win.
It basically throws handicapping out the window and becomes a contest of who can land on the luckiest bomb.
I played one contest about 8 years ago in Connecticut and did very well gambling but not in the contest.
Also walked the grounds of Yale University.
That was the highlight of the trip/
Absolutely breathtaking campus.
Till Wednesday.
Ben

[judd]

with all due respect, how could a measly $6.90 double make you a winner ???

[tribecaagent]

Yes I was a team with another capper. We split the workload and my picks earned us 10th place after day 1. I had 4 winners and 1 bogus dq. The other guy had 1 winner.



You're right, I didn't win the qualifier because I was too lazy to go down to the track and play. He put the ticket in and after winning the qualifier asked me to go in with him. Without me,we wouldn't even have finshed 23rd. Without him, I may have done better as 3 tracks I was responsible for in day 2 were scratched. We had to use his picks mostly on day 2 and plumetted to 23rd. He's even apologized to me for f*****g up.

Light,

We have many commonalities. I'm a team with Carl Icahn. I shit you not. We split the workload and I'm the one who chose Blockbuster Video, Imclone, and Lasik as well as several other companies I'm sure you've read about in the Wall Street Journal.

You're the man.

[Light]

Oh, and by the way, John Conte won the big contest in Vegas last year.

That was 2 back. This year it was Brian Troop

The way they run those things make it possible for literally anyone to win.

To say its the equivalent of dart throwing is not to see the whole picture.I can tell you the reason why I did so well on the first day is that my concentration and focus was very strong. I prepped myself before the contest which included meditation. My biggest scores in my handicapping career have come after meditating which I dont do that often. I definetly cannot do that kind of mental preperation everyday or even once a month. I have to be really motivated. It is a huge energy drain. But the power of the mind and concentration on detail can really pay off. That's why when you say "nothing to beat here" I find it very underwhelming.

[cees with dees]

with all due respect, how could a measly $6.90 double make you a winner ???

Like I said, I made two plays today:
Race 4 $15 DD 1/2,3

And Race 8 $60 DD 2/5

Bet $90. Got back $207

I don't know why all of a sudden I'm being put on the defensive.
This game is difficult enough without this petty crap.
Good luck all.
Ben

[Augie16]

Good job again today Ben. Keep up the good work and good posts. :)

[cees with dees]

I didn't mean for it to sound like dart throwing because you still have to pick winners but if you're in a scenario going into the last race and you know you need a 10/1 shot or better to win, you're handicapping that price and above.
From the limited research I've done on these tournaments, if you can double your bankroll, you're in reasonable shape for a decent prize.
You also have to have an opinion on several tracks and I have my hands full with one.
Still, I think contests are great because it gives everyone a chance at a huge payoff but I don't necessarily think it takes a good handicapper to win a contest but it does take a good one to show a profit from wagering.
Good luck and thanks for the turnaround.
I have a strong opinion at times but I'm a damned decent guy.
And I think I am much more of a help on this board than a detriment.
See you all on Wednesday.
Ben

[judd]

you are a class guy :ThmbUp:

[illinoisbred]

I always enjoy reading you comments/analysis.

[formula_2002]

Why in the world would I ever use an analyst's picks? I finished 23rd in the country in the drf nhc contest last January. That tells me that I know how to handicap better than the vast majority of players. But even if that fact didn't exist, I also know most analysts ROI is in the toilet. I think I have proved that.
Most likley it was just luck..dont get carried away with it.. just enjoy :)

[nostradumbass]

Ben, I appreciate the insight that you provide to back up your selections. The reasoning behind your picks helps to educate more casual players like myself. Thanks for what you do.

[timtam]

Light,
You finished behind 22 people or maybe more. Am I supposed to be

impressed? You have a lot of posts but how many are of any quality?

Take a page from your nickname LIGHTEN UP

[the little guy]

Dude,my partner had a phone bill over $500 from his hotel room in Vegas after his cell phone failed and he had to use the land line at the hotel to get my picks.


There is so much funny about this post that I don't even know where to start.

[Light]

Most likley it was just luck..dont get carried away with it.. just enjoy :)

If my performance was luck,then every time someone wins it's luck.

[Light]

There is so much funny about this post that I don't even know where to start.

Glad you find it amusing, but I had to chip in part of my winnings to help pay for his phone calls. Hotels have connection fees. Each time he called me,they charged $22 in connection fees. He called me 11 times.

[Light]

Light,
You finished behind 22 people or maybe more. Am I supposed to be

impressed?

I'm not trying to impress. I only brought that up in response to a suggestion made by you that I'm bitter because I might have used one of cees losing picks.

Why would someone who can compete successfully in the drf national finals,won contests on this board,won real money with other online contests, want to use a sucker's picks? What part of that dont you get?

[speed]

Glad you find it amusing, but I had to chip in part of my winnings to help pay for his phone calls. Hotels have connection fees. Each time he called me,they charged $22 in connection fees. He called me 11 times.


As that comedian says


Hereee's your sign :D

[formula_2002]

If my performance was luck,then every time someone wins it's luck.

If one beats the odds with statistical significance, I would say no luck was involved, beyond that, yes, it's all about luck.
But that's a whole other topic.

I suspect that my winning posts are not lucky, but I'm not certain about that. :confused:

one more point, given the 15 to 20% win pool takes, it's possible to win with statistical significance and still not show a profit

[Light]

I suspect that my winning posts are not lucky, but I'm not certain about that. :confused:



You could also say that "luck" is a momentary glimpse into clarity when a gambler makes the right decision. In other words,there is no such thing as "luck".

[formula_2002]

You could also say that "luck" is a momentary glimpse into clarity when a gambler makes the right decision. In other words,there is no such thing as "luck".

I think there are many many more instances of luck than statistical significance.
therefore luck must be statistically significant! :)

[Augie16]

I think that the only fair way to settle it would be some kind of handicapping throwdown between the two. For the record, my money would be on Ben cause I really don't see anything that he has to beat.

[the little guy]

Light doesn't lower himself to such contests.....he is too busy criticizing others.....and misrepresenting himself as a Handicapping Contest ( and not just any contest mind you ) qualifier. That is when he's not running up phone bills.

[rjorio]

Is karl's korner Light's handicapping partner.

[Grits]

What part of that dont you get?

You've started, yet again, on someone else who, like TLG--is being made the focus of your proclaimed, "you know nothing with your lack of skill. I do. Therefore, I'll proceed to make this thread about me and my abilities while knocking you in the dirt."

Ben's a native of New York City, who unlike yourself still resides there, goes to the track often, and has been playing New York racing since his childhood. Too, unlike you, he posts his plays and shares the details of his handicapping choices without concern for accolades. Or scorn.

Others appreciate his postings. Somehow, again, as it did with TLG, this bothers you.

EVERYONE gets it, Light. Every part of it.


On another note, thanks for sharing your other pastime. In doing so, we can conclude if you don't ace all your handicapping and wagering days, you can recoup your losses relying on your other skill . . . . Yoga and Meditation 101.

The Maharishi and Deepak Chopra, both of worldwide acclaim, have born one more lemming to carry on their programs, and the sale and promotion of their books, events, foundations, etc, etc.

For those who plan further reading to usher in their desired state of tranquility. Visit the site of each guru.

*FOOTNOTE* All interested signups (aka unsuccessful horseplayers), bring your yoga mats to class. (Those hardwood floors can be a bitch on one's transcendental flow.)

http://www.maharishi.org/

http://deepakchopra.com/

[exiles]

CEES, keep up the good work ,anybody that knows anything about this game, will clearly see from your posts ,that you are very knowledgeable and that you have a very good line on NY racing.

thanks for your posts

[Light]

You've started, yet again, on someone else who, like TLG--is being made the focus of your proclaimed, "you know nothing with your lack of skill. I do. Therefore, I'll proceed to make this thread about me and my abilities while knocking you in the dirt."


You are misrepresenting my position. I'm not knocking cees ability. I've never done a statistical study of his ability nor do I care to. I'm just saying he needs to stop using that silly line of "nothing to beat here". How many times does he have to look like a fool saying that before someone points it out.

With TLG,he was being misrepresented by zealot fans claiming this guy is going to make them a winner. Being a public handicapper,with much more exposure than cees,I did do a statistical study of his picks and that's history. His ROI is negative with my study and PA's score sheet during his play vs. Cmoore. Case closed.

I am not claiming to be better than anybody. It's just when people ask,what qualifications I have, I give them my resume of accomplishments which may seem like I'm trying to impress but it isn't. The point of flauting my accomplishments is to qualify my criticisms,that I do know something about handicapping.


we can conclude if you don't ace all your handicapping and wagering days

Duh!

you can recoup your losses relying on your other skill . . . . Yoga and Meditation 101.

I never said I do Yoga. Handicapping is a mental sport. In a physical sport,you train your body for competition. In a mental one,you need to train your mind. Meditation is probably the best exercise for that. But like physical training,its not easy and most of the time,I dont do it because I'm lazy or busy. But when I look back at 25 years of handicapping,my most successful days were after meditating.

[PhantomOnTour]

I read your first post on meditation and found it interesting. No need for the other poster to knock you for doing it, imo. Whatever works, right? Heck, it seems quite logical. Before internet wagering I would always pysche myself up on the drive to the track or OTB...be it with a song I like or a speech to myself about confidence and discipline. Absolutely necessary in my book and I've lost that 'alone time' by playing at home with distraction after distraction.

Can't wait for that 30min drive to EvD in a few weeks.

[timtam]

3303 posts what a waste of space

[Grits]

Light, I don't want to go round and round with you, and I don't intend to beyond this note. But, please, go back, read your first post to this (Ben's) thread, ONE THAT HE STARTED.

IF YOU CAN, IN ANY REMOTE WAY, JUSTIFY your calling his remarks, or anyone else that post their own handicapping selections as--bullshit, or using a bullshit line--there's nothing that I could ever say that would help you in developing, even a minimal sense, of respect for other horseplayers and handicappers.

EOC.

[PaceAdvantage]

You are misrepresenting my position. I'm not knocking cees ability.Heavens to Murgatroyd!!! You're not???!?!?!

Why would someone who can compete successfully in the drf national finals,won contests on this board,won real money with other online contests, want to use a sucker's picks?Emphasis mine, by the way...if you're not knocking cees by calling his "sucker's picks," then I would hate to see the phrases you use on those you really have no respect for...oh wait..I have seen that....never mind...

[Light]

But, please, go back, read your first post to this (Ben's) thread, ONE THAT HE STARTED.

I did as you said. I went back and read my first post to Ben, the part with the word "bullshit". this is what I said:

You need to stop using that "nothing to beat here" bullshit line.

IF YOU CAN, IN ANY REMOTE WAY, JUSTIFY your calling his remarks, or anyone else that post their own handicapping selections as--bullshit, or using a bullshit line--there's nothing that I could ever say that would help you in developing, even a minimal sense, of respect for other horseplayers and handicappers.



Grits, read carefully. I am not calling his handicapping bullshit. I am calling a phrase he constantly uses bullshit. There is a big distinction. I find his phrase "nothing to beat here" insulting to my intelligence. I dont call that handicapping, O.K. Why? Because alot of times its a very shortsighted view that in depth handicapping proves there to be more than meets the eye. When he uses that phrase, I know he has handicapped a race in a very shallow way with the arrogance of pretending to know what he is talking about. That is what I am finding irritating. So if he could just cut that phrase out of his repetoire, I wouldn't catch on that he doesn't know what he is talking about and he would come accross more intelligently.

[newtothegame]

I read your first post on meditation and found it interesting. No need for the other poster to knock you for doing it, imo. Whatever works, right? Heck, it seems quite logical. Before internet wagering I would always pysche myself up on the drive to the track or OTB...be it with a song I like or a speech to myself about confidence and discipline. Absolutely necessary in my book and I've lost that 'alone time' by playing at home with distraction after distraction.

Can't wait for that 30min drive to EvD in a few weeks.

POT how do you jump in this thread and tell someone else that there was "no need for another poster to knock you", when light came on to a thread that BEN ( a GENTLEMAN with more class then most) started and knocks him due to comments???
I will gladly take a few down days as well as a few up days and a pleasant conversation with a GENTLEMAN like BEN versus a snot nosed little P.O.S who has nothing but negative to say about other posters picks.....

[PhantomOnTour]

POT how do you jump in this thread and tell someone else that there was "no need for another poster to knock you", when light came on to a thread that BEN ( a GENTLEMAN with more class then most) started and knocks him due to comments???
I will gladly take a few down days as well as a few up days and a pleasant conversation with a GENTLEMAN like BEN versus a snot nosed little P.O.S who has nothing but negative to say about other posters picks.....
I 'jumped into this thread' on page 1, and my post was against Light for reacting the way he did to Cees' thread starter. So I posted again later and thought someone was giving Light a hard time just to be ornery, and I was against that too. My point being this: knocking someone's post(or someone personally) because you may not like them or have a bad past with them is not a good reason. That's all. I found Lights' post on meditation to be interesting, and someone gets loose and compares him to a maharishi devotee etc....Just like Light was outta line for calling Cees what he did. I just try to judge the post more than the poster. :ThmbUp:

[newtothegame]

I 'jumped into this thread' on page 1, and my post was against Light for reacting the way he did to Cees' thread starter. So I posted again later and thought someone was giving Light a hard time just to be ornery, and I was against that too. My point being this: knocking someone's post(or someone personally) because you may not like them or have a bad past with them is not a good reason. That's all. I found Lights' post on meditation to be interesting, and someone gets loose and compares him to a maharishi devotee etc....Just like Light was outta line for calling Cees what he did. I just try to judge the post more than the poster. :ThmbUp:

Your absolutely right, and my apologies for missing your earlier post.
But again, I reitterate my feelings towards Ben, A CLASSY GENTLEMAN (by the way Ben sorry I havent spoken in a while ), who took alot of time to explain many things to me when others here wouldnt bother. Sad to see a guy who comes on here and post his picks not looking for ANYTHING. Post his picks to share with others (when other say they wont due to their horses prices getting hammered down). I see Ben as a true asset to this board. And I hope to be able to continue reading his post for many years to come....

[cees with dees]

This thread has gotten way out of hand.
It's almost like the uproar that followed the Stones release of Miss You back in 1978 when everyone made such a fuss about them going "disco".
Mick responded to all the hoopla by saying: "why would something as innocent as Charlie playing a 4 on the floor cause such a violent reaction. It's just a beat".
Grits, your post was the best I've ever seen on any board and thanks to everyone who had some very kind things to say.
As far as light is concerned, why do you care so much if I think there's a race with nothing to beat? It's my opinion and I'm allowed to be wrong. And I always have sound reasoning behind any statement I make that can seem somewhat overboard.
And by the way, the horse I've been waiting for, Miss Tequila, is in Thursday and she really has nothing to beat!!!!!!:)
Good luck and focus on something important before it's too late.
Ben

[the little guy]

I would take a more careful look at Miss Tequila's last race. You are isolating one incident while ignoring everything else that happened in the race.

[cees with dees]

If you don't think she was absolutely out of her mind there, you need work in learning to watch a race.
She was going long for the first time off one sprint. Was pushed 10 wide into the first turn. Sustained a rally while wide every step and was still coming at the wire.
Had she run last there I'd be eager to play her back.
Tomorrow she draws inside of her only two contenders, and that's giving those two very high regards.
In my opinion, Miss Tequila needs an accident to lose this race.
And I'll be making my biggest bet of the year thus far on her accordingly.
Good luck,
Ben

[Light]

As far as light is concerned, why do you care so much if I think there's a race with nothing to beat?


Because from personal experience its a losing attitude. When I used to say that,in my apprentice days of horseracing,I would get beat most of the time. It's an arrogant attitude that gets you in the poor house. Why don't you just unload on those horses? Because you know you stand a good chance of getting burned and you will. I've seen guy's lose their inheritances at the track with that arrogant attitude.There is always the unknown or something hidden or something you may have overlooked. It's a gambler's folly and downfall. All I'm asking you to do is have some respect for the competition. Unless you want to put your money where your mouth is,you look like a hypocrite saying that. Contrary to what others may say,that is not very "classy" of you.

[the little guy]

If you don't think she was absolutely out of her mind there, you need work in learning to watch a race.
She was going long for the first time off one sprint. Was pushed 10 wide into the first turn. Sustained a rally while wide every step and was still coming at the wire.

Ben

Much like your recent misinformed opinion on a Ramon Dominguez ride you clearly have not watched this race carefully....if really at all.

It's interesting how much one's perspective can change upon rewatching races. It's not merely a matter of opinion....you are simply completely wrong and inaccurate.

[the little guy]

Because from personal experience its a losing attitude. When I used to say that,in my apprentice days of horseracing,I would get beat most of the time. It's an arrogant attitude that gets you in the poor house. Why don't you just unload on those horses? Because you know you stand a good chance of getting burned and you will. I've seen guy's lose their inheritances at the track with that arrogant attitude.There is always the unknown or something hidden or something you may have overlooked. It's a gambler's folly and downfall. All I'm asking you to do is have some respect for the competition. Unless you want to put your money where your mouth is,you look like a hypocrite saying that. Contrary to what others may say,that is not very "classy" of you.


Ah, Light....the arbiter of class.

[the little guy]

By the way, for anyone that is interested, the race in question is the 9th from March 4th at Aqueduct. Take a good look at the pan and head-on....you will see that while forced out into the first turn, Miss Tequila is adeptly taken to the rail late in the first turn, and is right on it as they hit the backstretch , and enters the second turn on the rail as well, only to angle out late in the turn/into the stretch. She also came from well back in a race that was heavily contested on the front end. Clearly the second finisher ran the best race....followed by Quantitativeeasing who finished a half length behind Miss Tequila.

I'm also not saying Miss Tequila can't win Thursday, as she clearly can ( I picked her third ), but her trip is nothing like was being described.

[cees with dees]

you clearly have not watched this race carefully....if really at all.

Now that's hysterical!!

[cees with dees]

By the time Miss Tequilla got anywhere near the inside, all of the damage was done and she had to take back to last to do it.
The minimal ground she saved while steadied down the backstretch helped her nada. And she didn't just fan very wide after that, she was yanked wide.
All of this from a filly who showed speed in her one lifetime sprint outing.
Do you really think coming from last while wide at the important parts of the race worked as a good trip for her?
We obviously take a much different approach to how we watch a race.
As for Thursday, she is much tighter and in a tons better spot and I have zero respect for the competition and can't see why in the world anyone has a problem with my opinion. It's mine. And to have that level of confidence in any play is a plus for the player.
I've never in my life seen a scared player do well.
And by the way Light, thanks for the warning. But I've been doing this for a living since 1981 and successfully since 1998.
Ben

[the little guy]

you clearly have not watched this race carefully....if really at all.

Now that's hysterical!!


Anyone that takes a few minutes to watch the race carefully will understand that you badly misrepresented Miss Tequila's trip. The proof is available.

For those without access to the replay, it is the last of three races we discussed on this Trips&Traps segment. It doesn't include the head-on but even the pan clearly refutes what you claimed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmSq2jj3XTo&feature=PlayList&p=B9CC22B19E6EB24C&index=1

[firstoffclaim]

Its nice to see a weekday race get so much scrutiny, I 'm looking forward to watching this race now. Thanks Ben and Andy for your opinions.

[the little guy]

By the time Miss Tequilla got anywhere near the inside, all of the damage was done and she had to take back to last to do it.
The minimal ground she saved while steadied down the backstretch helped her nada. And she didn't just fan very wide after that, she was yanked wide.
All of this from a filly who showed speed in her one lifetime sprint outing.
Do you really think coming from last while wide at the important parts of the race worked as a good trip for her?
We obviously take a much different approach to how we watch a race.
As for Thursday, she is much tighter and in a tons better spot and I have zero respect for the competition and can't see why in the world anyone has a problem with my opinion. It's mine. And to have that level of confidence in any play is a plus for the player.
I've never in my life seen a scared player do well.
And by the way Light, thanks for the warning. But I've been doing this for a living since 1981 and successfully since 1998.
Ben


Races are frequently won and lost by dynamics. Taking a look even at the chart will show that in the case of the race in question being towards the back of the field was hardly disadventageous.

Racing is a game of minutia....and exaggeration clearly grossly distorts what's really important.

[cees with dees]

Because from personal experience its a losing attitude. When I used to say that,in my apprentice days of horseracing,I would get beat most of the time. It's an arrogant attitude that gets you in the poor house. Why don't you just unload on those horses? Because you know you stand a good chance of getting burned and you will. I've seen guy's lose their inheritances at the track with that arrogant attitude.There is always the unknown or something hidden or something you may have overlooked. It's a gambler's folly and downfall. All I'm asking you to do is have some respect for the competition. Unless you want to put your money where your mouth is,you look like a hypocrite saying that. Contrary to what others may say,that is not very "classy" of you.

Just because I may love a horse in any race doesn't mean I have to unload on anything. There is always the x factor and always tomorrow.
I will key such a horse in gimmicks and make a sizeable win bet where appropriate all of which is completely none of your business.
As far as putting my money where my mouth is, I do. Everyday.
So do us all a favor and go punch your time clock, and bother someone else.
And or, get a life.
Ben

[cees with dees]

Races are frequently won and lost by dynamics. Taking a look even at the chart will show that in the case of the race in question being towards the back of the field was hardly disadventageous.

Racing is a game of minutia....and exaggeration clearly grossly distorts what's really important.

The fact that the off the pace runners were the beneficiaries of this race even point more to Miss Tequilla because she had to try and outkick all of the fresh horses in front of her who had better trips.
When she jogs Thursday, you'll find another argument as most do and I'll be moving on to Friday.
Ben

[the little guy]

The fact that the off the pace runners were the beneficiaries of this race even point more to Miss Tequilla because she had to try and outkick all of the fresh horses in front of her who had better trips.
When she jogs Thursday, you'll find another argument as most do and I'll be moving on to Friday.
Ben

You are choosing to isolate one piece of a larger puzzle and ignore everything else that happened in the race.

I would love to hear someone else explain to me how Miss Tequilla had a tougher trip than Quantitativeeasing.

She may win on Thursday....but that won't change your distortion of the trip.

[cees with dees]

Andy, I know who you are and sometimes even take notice of things that you point out. But you don't have 1/10th the opinion of a guy like Brad Thomas.
And if you can watch that race and think Quantitiative Easing had more difficulty than Miss Tequilla, I am wasting my breath with you.
I can't picture any scenario where that creature could come close to Miss Tequilla on Thursday.
I also love how you never take a stand. You tell me I am seriously overestimating Tequillas trip but then add, "I'm not saying she can't win on Thursday".
If Quantititave Easing had more trouble than mine, you should love this spot for her on Thursday.
Difference is, Quantitative is an established loser. And seriously lacks versatility. Has to beat Tequilla from behind and outside her. I can easily say she's not winning although is a factor for underneath exotics just by process of elimination.
She'll eventually find a weak enough spot but it sure isn't Thursday/
Good luck.
Ben

[the little guy]

Andy, I know who you are and sometimes even take notice of things that you point out. But you don't have 1/10th the opinion of a guy like Brad Thomas.
And if you can watch that race and think Quantitiative Easing had more difficulty than Miss Tequilla, I am wasting my breath with you.
I can't picture any scenario where that creature could come close to Miss Tequilla on Thursday.
I also love how you never take a stand. You tell me I am seriously overestimating Tequillas trip but then add, "I'm not saying she can't win on Thursday".
If Quantititave Easing had more trouble than mine, you should love this spot for her on Thursday.
Difference is, Quantitative is an established loser. And seriously lacks versatility. Has to beat Tequilla from behind and outside her. I can easily say she's not winning although is a factor for underneath exotics just by process of elimination.
She'll eventually find a weak enough spot but it sure isn't Thursday/
Good luck.
Ben


Insulting me by saying something that would make Brad Thomas angry only weakens you because it shows that you have no real confidence in your opinions and can only try to denigrate me personally to strengthen your argument. But then again, I forgot, you're a " damn nice guy. "

Miss Tequilla is the 3:1 ML favorite. Liking her chances in this race is hardly rocket science. This discussion here has absolutely NOTHING to do with whether or not she can win the race.....that is a given. The argument is about your grossly misrepresenting her trip. Anyone that watches the race will see this to be the case. Anybody that properly understands the dynamics of the race will also know that Quantitativeeasing ran a better race ( she also had a wider trip than Miss Tequila as far as overall ground loss....something else that anyone that watches the race will see ). Yes, I understand that Quantitativeeasing has had many chances, and frequently point out the obvious that horses with less chances may well have more room for improvement than proven losers, so to speak. None of this changes your inaccurate assessment of Miss Tequila's trip....which is what I really pointed out.

[nostradumbass]

You guys are getting testosterone all over my computer monitor, dammit!:rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[cees with dees]

That was not meant as an insult but certainly wasn't flattering and I apologize.
There is little I know about this game that I didn't learn from somebody. And believe me, I learned from the cream of the crop.
I disagree 100% that I evaluated Miss Tequilla's trip incorrectly and I never claimed rocket science in mentioning her as a seriously play back weeks ago.
There's a little difference though in thinking a horse can win and thinking a horse is in a spot where she has to fall down to lose and that's how I feel about Miss Tequilla. Right or wrong. And she will certainly not be an odds on favorite. And to say I have no real confidence in my selections?? That's a little silly don't ya think??
Lighten up. And by the way, there's no one near Brad Thomas as far as I'm concerned. Myself included.
Ben

[46zilzal]

I overhear the stewards, after watching the very same tape over and over, get completely different takes on a race requiring that they vote on a ruling over a DQ or not. THESE are experienced fellows too with more views of the contest than the fan normally gets.

NOT cut and dry.

[the little guy]

Lighten up.
Ben


I love this kind of crap.

I'm having a good old time today. If I was anymore relaxed I might slip into a coma. I got a haircut. All my work is finished through Friday. I saw a movie. Everything's GREAT.

You took a cheap shot at me. I'm a big boy....I can deal with it. But, it doesn't change what you did. The conversation was about a race. I don't understand why you made it personal. I also think it was lousy that you dragged as fine a person as Brad Thomas into this. But, whatever.

[cees with dees]

I thought I apologized.
You're right. Relax.
Bet Miss Tequilla. You'll feel better.
And as far as cheap shots go, you accused me of not even seeing the race in question.

[the little guy]

I thought I apologized.
You're right. Relax.
Bet Miss Tequilla. You'll feel better.
And as far as cheap shots go, you accused me of not even seeing the race in question.


Based on your description of Miss Tequila's trip anyone would have a tough time believing you watched her entire race....as even a simple viewing belies virtually everything you said.

Thanks, though, I'll try to relax.

[PaceAdvantage]

I also love how you never take a stand.Thanks...I just spit my beverage all over my computer....

Saying that Andy never takes a stand is like saying....oh never mind...

[cees with dees]

It's obvious you're just looking for an argument so I'll leave you be.
And just so you know, if Miss Tequilla loses tomorrow, and even runs poorly, it won't be the first time that it has happened and won't be the last.
Having this kind of confidence in a play though comes from years of experience and knowing when the right time to have my money in. And if I can win 50% of these plays, I'm in relatively good shape.
Good luck to you but please, go argue with somebody else.
If this was any day but a Monday or Tuesday I'd be too preoccupied to bother. So get the last word if that's what your psyche requires. I have meaningful things to do like watch the Law And Order SVU marathon.
Ben

[cees with dees]

Thanks...I just spit my beverage all over my computer....

Saying that Andy never takes a stand is like saying....oh never mind...

Belly laughs are good for us!!!
See you all tomorrow.
Ben

[the little guy]

It's obvious you're just looking for an argument so I'll leave you be.
And just so you know, if Miss Tequilla loses tomorrow, and even runs poorly, it won't be the first time that it has happened and won't be the last.




As I've said before, this is not about whether or not she wins tomorrow.

I was only trying to help others that might have been misled by your inaccurate description of her trip....ya know....great humanitarian that I am. I also hoped you would watch again and see your mistakes. It may not matter.....this time.

[the little guy]

Thanks...I just spit my beverage all over my computer....

Saying that Andy never takes a stand is like saying....oh never mind...


I let that one slide.....damn nice guy that I am.

Now, if you don't mind, I have to go relax.

[JustRalph]

See, now I am gonna have to download the Thursday card and look at it........

btw, Andy........If Early Response hits the board on Wed (8th race) you owe me a coke........... ;)

[cees with dees]

As I've said before, this is not about whether or not she wins tomorrow.

I was only trying to help others that might have been misled by your inaccurate description of her trip....ya know....great humanitarian that I am. I also hoped you would watch again and see your mistakes. It may not matter.....this time.

You keep saying I gave an inaccurate description of her trip.
That is YOUR OPINION.
As far as I'm concerned, she had the worst trip possible for a runner with speed going long for the first time off of insufficient preparation. And it has everything in the world to do with if she wins on Thursday because I'm betting her off of that trip.
The fact that she got away from being wide at an insignificant point of the race is meaningless. She was used and fought by the rider most of the way and jerked around like a rodeo performer. If you can't see that, you just can't. But stop saying that I'm misleading people. I would never ever do that.
Ben

[the little guy]

See, now I am gonna have to download the Thursday card and look at it........

btw, Andy........If Early Response hits the board on Wed (8th race) you owe me a coke........... ;)


I'll be you a coke anytime Ralph.

I'll buy you a sixpack if he hits the board.

[the little guy]

You keep saying I gave an inaccurate description of her trip.
That is YOUR OPINION.
As far as I'm concerned, she had the worst trip possible for a runner with speed going long for the first time off of insufficient preparation. And it has everything in the world to do with if she wins on Thursday because I'm betting her off of that trip.
The fact that she got away from being wide at an insignificant point of the race is meaningless. She was used and fought by the rider most of the way and jerked around like a rodeo performer. If you can't see that, you just can't. But stop saying that I'm misleading people. I would never ever do that.
Ben


It's not an opinion that she was on the rail for a significant part of the race.

Here is your description of the race that I disputed....this and only this...


If you don't think she was absolutely out of her mind there, you need work in learning to watch a race.
She was going long for the first time off one sprint. Was pushed 10 wide into the first turn. Sustained a rally while wide every step and was still coming at the wire.



First of all, she was NEVER 10 wide. NEVER. Second of all, you claimed she was " wide every step " which is simply inaccurate. This is what I disputed and I suggested others should watch. You can say they are opinions, just as you can say that you have an opinion that the sky is brown, but that doesn't preclude the possibility that your supposed " opinion " in either case is wrong.

As for your further exaggerations ( he rodeo performer stuff that doesn't exist on the films ).....they don't strengthen your case. They weaken them. Stick to the facts. She was bothered and forced out going into the first turn. Absolutely. She was angled to the rail no more than 2/3 of the way around the first turn, where she pretty much stayed until the latter part of the second turn. None of this is opinion.....it is verifiable fact. Yes she drifted into the two path briefly on the backstretch....but even we can agree that's irrelevent. She also closed in a race that essentially fell apart. Now, we can agree to disagree about what this means about how she ran. That's all fine. However, her placement in the race is indisputable and you inaccurately reported this....and anyone that watches the pan and head-on will see this.

I welcome others to watch the replays and tell me what I am incorrect about. I have watched this race many times, as evidenced by it appearing on Trips&Traps, and simply wanted to point out, first to you in all honesty, that her trip was not what you portrayed it as being. We had a similar discussion about a Ramon Dominguez ride, and you even realized your mistake, so it isn't as though there isn't already a precident here.

It's not personal....it's a race argument. Horseplayers have them all the time. It's one of the great ways we can learn and enhance both out enjoyment and understanding of the game.

[formula_2002]

See, now I am gonna have to download the Thursday card and look at it........

btw, Andy........If Early Response hits the board on Wed (8th race) you owe me a coke........... ;)

its a LTCP posted pick looking, to
make it to the center of the post

AQU 8 2 EARLY RESPONSE

[Cardus]

you are a class guy :ThmbUp:

I thought that poster Chase was the only guy allowed to use that line.

[Cardus]

Yes I was a team with another capper. We split the workload and my picks earned us 10th place after day 1. I had 4 winners and 1 bogus dq. The other guy had 1 winner.



You're right, I didn't win the qualifier because I was too lazy to go down to the track and play. He put the ticket in and after winning the qualifier asked me to go in with him. Without me,we wouldn't even have finshed 23rd. Without him, I may have done better as 3 tracks I was responsible for in day 2 were scratched. We had to use his picks mostly on day 2 and plumetted to 23rd. He's even apologized to me for f*****g up.

Way to throw your partner under the bus.

You're a great teammate.

[cj]

There are no trips from slow horses. In this case, Miss Tequila had a mildly difficult beginning precisely because she is a slow horse.

Fortunately for her, the race Thursday is so bad I guess she has a mild chance, but I'll toss her and the 6. They both stink.

[Tom]

You know,this is called a "message board" because it is an exchange of ideas.

If you ever have one, let us know.

[Light]

So do us all a favor and go punch your time clock, and bother someone else.
And or, get a life.


Surely you must be aware that if you post on a pubic message board,your post is fair game for rebuttal. Don't act so innocent.

[exiles]

Based on your description of Miss Tequila's trip anyone would have a tough time believing you watched her entire race....as even a simple viewing belies virtually everything you said.

Thanks, though, I'll try to relax.

I watched the replay and it is very obvious that going into the 1st turn the 9 had a very bad trip far worst than the 5, after that the 5 was 2 and 3 wide while the 9 saved ground to the turn, then it gets yanked wide and closes w/ a rush, the 9 gets a rider switch on THU i don't know if JARA is better than the apprentice who rode the 9 the last 2 times but i guess the trainer saw the race too, the 9 only making its 3d lifetime start and sure looks like a lock on THU it has nothing to beat like CEES would say, TLG the pace was contested but very slow 49/51 to the half 1:17.41 fore 3/4 so i don't know how it helped the 9, CEES keep up the good work, LTG you couldn't shine BRAD THOMAS shoes.

[PaceAdvantage]

LTG you couldn't shine BRAD THOMAS shoes.Holy Shit...you got him there! Was that ever a good one! So original and devastating...reply of the month for sure!

Never mind the fact that LTG (or is that TLG) never said he could shine anybody's shoes, now did he?

I think Light should track Brad Thomas next and report back on his ROI for all to see...that's your next project Light...when you get the time of course...I know you're a very, very busy man...

[Tom]

Surely you must be aware that if you post on a pubic message board,your post is fair game for rebuttal. Don't act so innocent.

It would seem to rather crude to be rebutting when YOU never post a single pick. Not too classy.

[cees with dees]

Andy, you are absolutelyn correct about me saying Tequillla was wide every step.
She wasn't. But by the time she saw anything near the inside, the damage was already done.
I'm expecting her on the lead today. Or at worst, relaxing behind some below average early bird. A trip that's a far cry from what she endured on 3/4.
My bottom line is that on a fast track, I'm betting her with both fists off the horrible trip in her first route attempt.
I misspoke when I said she was wide every step but in defense of that, I think the time she did save some ground, it was after she was taken back to last and was under stout restraint until let loose midway into the final turn.
Enough talk. Lets see if her performance justifies my opinon.
Ben

[gales0678]

Andy, you are absolutelyn correct about me saying Tequillla was wide every step.
She wasn't. But by the time she saw anything near the inside, the damage was already done.
I'm expecting her on the lead today. Or at worst, relaxing behind some below average early bird. A trip that's a far cry from what she endured on 3/4.
My bottom line is that on a fast track, I'm betting her with both fists off the horrible trip in her first route attempt.
I misspoke when I said she was wide every step but in defense of that, I think the time she did save some ground, it was after she was taken back to last and was under stout restraint until let loose midway into the final turn.
Enough talk. Lets see if her performance justifies my opinon.
Ben


never good to choke a horse when they want to run , horses react just like humans when you make them do something they don't want to do, the result is usually not good , they are not machines

[cees with dees]

Now that's the most intelligent and insightful post in this entire thread.
Thanks for the refreshment.
Ben

[gales0678]

when you just look at numbers , you lose out on a lot of the story

rest assured ben , carlos shares your enthusiasm for ms teq. tomorrow as well

[cees with dees]

That's really good to know.
I'm not familiar with John Caputo but am with Flying Zee and those people love to bet their horses.
Win or lose Thursday, I think I am on the right horse and couldn't be talked off of her by God himself.
Thank you for your posts. You are obviously very sharp.
Ben

[cees with dees]

when you just look at numbers , you lose out on a lot of the story

rest assured ben , carlos shares your enthusiasm for ms teq. tomorrow as well

I always said that stats without knowing the specifics are really useless.
If a trainer is winning at 27%, he is not winning 73% of the time so knowing what the winning percentage winners are and what they have in common is absolutely mandatory.
Betting blind stats is not a good idea. A perfect example is David Jacobson. Here's a guy that has a 20 plus % win percentage but the vast majority of his winners come on serious dropdowns. He is a clown as a horseman and after what he did to Hugable Tom way back when, I am shocked that they ever let this monster back in the game.
He is by far the worst 20 some odd % trainer I've ever seen.
Ben

[the little guy]

Gales is tight with Santa too.

[gales0678]

and the tooth fairy

[Bobzilla]

Ben, you've probably already seen it but if not here is the early line on 3/25 R9:

:1: 50/1
:2: 50/1
:3: 15/1
:4: 3/1 (Miss Tequila)
:5: 4/1
:6: 7/2
:7: 8/1
:8: 4/1
:9: 30/1
:10: 30/1

This discussion aroused my interest so I took a look at this race. Ben, I wouldn't at all be surprised if we see an improved effort from MT. I would have a difficult time accepting 3/1, however, if that's where she actually goes off at. If she does try to get an early advantage I'd be concerned about a potential engagement with ATC, or maybe even the wildcard Pletcher firster, Truly Kristin. Pletcher is 23% first time maiden claiming. We still have a day to think more about this interesting albeit low-level contest, but after strictly a cursory glance the one I might be interested in given the odds at 8/1 would be the :7: Onata. Maybe the :3: Air Mail though I have mixed feelings about that one. Ben, sounds like you're really high on MT so I hope you get better than 3/1 and I wish you the best of luck with whatever you decide to do tomorrow.

[the little guy]

and the tooth fairy

That was a given.

[cees with dees]

My plan of attack is to come alive in the pick 4.
My base play is all of $9 but I am going to make these plays exactly:
$1 pick 4 3,5,6/2,4,6/1/4 X4 $36
$1 pick 4 3,5,6/2,4,6/ALL/$ $81
$1 pick 4 ALL/2,4,6/1/4 $27
$1 pick 4 3,5,6/ALL/1/4 $24

Total of $168
If by some miracle I'm not alive, will then make exactas, tris and supers keying Miss Tequila on top.
The only ones that even go forward are the 3,6,7,8, with the 6 and 8 the most.

Exactas $2 4/all
$6 4/3,6,7,8
$45 4/6,8

Tri's $6 4/6,8/ALL
$15 4/6,8/3,6,7,8
$15 4/3,6,7,8/6,8

Supers $1 4/3,6,7,8/3,6,7,8/3,6,7,8
$1 4/6,8/3,6,7,8/ALL
$1 4/6,8/ALL/3,6,7,8
$8 4/6,8/4,6,7,8/4,6,7,8
$8 4/3,6,7,8/6,8/3,6,7,8

And if 5/2 or better, alive or not, $600 win 4

Like I said, I may be wrong, but I seriously think I have the goods here and want my money in on the limited opportunities that I come across.
This play for me is as solid as they get and if I lose, there are 9 more on Friday.
Good luck to me,
Ben

[the little guy]

So, you bet $60 on a double that paid $6 and change the other day....but are planning to bet approximately $1000 here.

Gotcha.

[firstoffclaim]

Now that I got ya here, is there a tailwind down the backstretch or are the horses running into the wind today?

[cees with dees]

So, you bet $60 on a double that paid $6 and change the other day....but are planning to bet approximately $1000 here.

Gotcha.

Now you're calling me a liar.
You are one pathetic individual

[Rise Over Run]

I got a haircut. All my work is finished through Friday.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Was that your annual visit to the barber??

Oh yeah, and I'm fat. But fat guys are allowed to make fun of bald guys.

[gales0678]

i don't think he's calling you a liar , but , i think he is questioning your money mgmt skills

[formula_2002]

its a LTCP posted pick looking, to
make it to the center of the post

AQU 8 2 EARLY RESPONSE


finished over 30 lengths from the winner but, according to the chart "..saved ground." The chart guy is a very nice person... :)

[JustRalph]

I was too busy today to watch the races......

I see you left out "stumbled at the start" for Early Response. I will try to look at the video later.

I hope they bring him back at a shorter distance

[formula_2002]

I was too busy today to watch the races......

I see you left out "stumbled at the start" for Early Response. I will try to look at the video later.

I hope they bring him back at a shorter distance
I was reporting only what i thought were the humorous comments.
Looking at the chart again I see he was only 4 or 5 lengths from the lead after a mile.

[firstoffclaim]

My plan of attack is to come alive in the pick 4.
My base play is all of $9 but I am going to make these plays exactly:
$1 pick 4 3,5,6/2,4,6/1/4 X4 $36
$1 pick 4 3,5,6/2,4,6/ALL/$ $81
$1 pick 4 ALL/2,4,6/1/4 $27
$1 pick 4 3,5,6/ALL/1/4 $24

Total of $168
If by some miracle I'm not alive, will then make exactas, tris and supers keying Miss Tequila on top.
The only ones that even go forward are the 3,6,7,8, with the 6 and 8 the most.

Exactas $2 4/all
$6 4/3,6,7,8
$45 4/6,8

Tri's $6 4/6,8/ALL
$15 4/6,8/3,6,7,8
$15 4/3,6,7,8/6,8

Supers $1 4/3,6,7,8/3,6,7,8/3,6,7,8
$1 4/6,8/3,6,7,8/ALL
$1 4/6,8/ALL/3,6,7,8
$8 4/6,8/4,6,7,8/4,6,7,8
$8 4/3,6,7,8/6,8/3,6,7,8

And if 5/2 or better, alive or not, $600 win 4

Like I said, I may be wrong, but I seriously think I have the goods here and want my money in on the limited opportunities that I come across.
This play for me is as solid as they get and if I lose, there are 9 more on Friday.
Good luck to me,
Ben

What happened to ShotGun Gal in the 8th? You seem to have changed your mind and are using Carlyn Darlyn heavily

[cees with dees]

You're right. Mistake. She's the 4.
Don't know why I wrote 1.
Hope it doesn't cost you.
Ben

[firstoffclaim]

Thanks for the clarification, if the the 1 or 4 win the 8th, and Tequila wins, I'll be happy

[cees with dees]

I actually have this race bought for a$1 but have Shot Gun for $7
Hoping to avoid the big win bet.
Not afraid, just unnecessary.
Good luck.
Ben

[castaway01]

So, you bet $60 on a double that paid $6 and change the other day....but are planning to bet approximately $1000 here.

Gotcha.

Never thought I would see you and Light uniting in your criticism of Ben...sort of like oil and water coming together as a team.

[the little guy]

Never thought I would see you and Light uniting in your criticism of Ben...sort of like oil and water coming together as a team.

Light is a troubled person. My disagreements here are both about Ben's analysis of the race and his odd money management. Ben puts his opinions out there. I respect that whether I agree with him or not. Light is a man with serious issues who's only supposed claim to fame is fabricating contest success. He needs to criticize others, who do what he cannot do, in a desperate attempt to make himself feel better.

[firstoffclaim]

Best of Luck Ben, really nice payday if Tequila pulls it off

[theguarantee]

Stand to make a big score if MT wins. Early money on the 5 is quite scary though.

[Charlie D]

#8 for me.


All the best.

[098poi]

Good luck C D. I like the 7 and the 8 to win but with no money bet I will gladly lose if you win.

[Jay Trotter]

I always wondered how one would spell "Murgatroyd"! Who knew...:jump:

Heavens to Murgatroyd!!! You're not???!?!?!

Emphasis mine, by the way...if you're not knocking cees by calling his "sucker's picks," then I would hate to see the phrases you use on those you really have no respect for...oh wait..I have seen that....never mind...

[castaway01]

Light is a troubled person. My disagreements here are both about Ben's analysis of the race and his odd money management. Ben puts his opinions out there. I respect that whether I agree with him or not. Light is a man with serious issues who's only supposed claim to fame is fabricating contest success. He needs to criticize others, who do what he cannot do, in a desperate attempt to make himself feel better.

I was just busting your chops because that was how it would look to anyone not familiar with you or your posts, since you were both knocking the guy. I know Light has issues and I've watched your picks and respect you, there's no problem.

I do hope Miss Tequila wins though.

[cees with dees]

Well that was a hideous beat but this game is full of them and that's why I never send it all in.
I'd much rather just lose the race though than have it be so torturous.
I was pretty confident when the winner got to her early stretch that Tequilla wasn't done.
In hindsight, a place bet at 7/2 might not have been a bad idea but I never considered it.
Good luck to all.
I wish you nothing but love and success.
One question for Andy though before I go:
Just curious, I was alive for a little under $4000 with Miss Tequilla. How many talking horses sessions do you have to do to your audience of 16 to make that???
Didn't work out this time but as my best friend always says:
"Benny, just keep setting the table. That's all we can do"/
Good luck.
Bye

[formula_2002]

Well that was a hideous beat but this game is full of them and that's why I never send it all in.
I'd much rather just lose the race though than have it be so torturous.
I was pretty confident when the winner got to her early stretch that Tequilla wasn't done.
In hindsight, a place bet at 7/2 might not have been a bad idea but I never considered it.
Good luck to all.
I wish you nothing but love and success.
One question for Andy though before I go:
Just curious, I was alive for a little under $4000 with Miss Tequilla. How many talking horses sessions do you have to do to your audience of 16 to make that???
Didn't work out this time but as my best friend always says:
"Benny, just keep setting the table. That's all we can do"/
Good luck.
Bye

YOU REALLY WANT TO SEE MY POST ON THIS ONE. :)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=861368#post861368

[Dahoss9698]

Well that was a hideous beat but this game is full of them and that's why I never send it all in.
I'd much rather just lose the race though than have it be so torturous.
I was pretty confident when the winner got to her early stretch that Tequilla wasn't done.
In hindsight, a place bet at 7/2 might not have been a bad idea but I never considered it.
Good luck to all.
I wish you nothing but love and success.
One question for Andy though before I go:
Just curious, I was alive for a little under $4000 with Miss Tequilla. How many talking horses sessions do you have to do to your audience of 16 to make that???
Didn't work out this time but as my best friend always says:
"Benny, just keep setting the table. That's all we can do"/
Good luck.
Bye

Classy....

[the little guy]

Just curious, I was alive for a little under $4000 with Miss Tequilla. How many talking horses sessions do you have to do to your audience of 16 to make that???
Didn't work out this time but as my best friend always says:
"Benny, just keep setting the table. That's all we can do"/
Good luck.
Bye

You are such a " damn nice guy. "

We get over 1000 hits on the internet alone for Talking Horses daily. Thanks, however, for clearing one thing up for everyone....you are one jealous dude.

[Light]

In my opinion, Miss Tequila needs an accident to lose this race.
And I'll be making my biggest bet of the year thus far on her accordingly.


First there's "nothing to beat". Now there needs to be an accident for you to lose.This is a sign of overconfidencial delusion. You claim to be professional but you talk like an amateur.

[PaceAdvantage]

Well that was a hideous beat but this game is full of them and that's why I never send it all in.
I'd much rather just lose the race though than have it be so torturous.
I was pretty confident when the winner got to her early stretch that Tequilla wasn't done.
In hindsight, a place bet at 7/2 might not have been a bad idea but I never considered it.
Good luck to all.
I wish you nothing but love and success.
One question for Andy though before I go:
Just curious, I was alive for a little under $4000 with Miss Tequilla. How many talking horses sessions do you have to do to your audience of 16 to make that???
Didn't work out this time but as my best friend always says:
"Benny, just keep setting the table. That's all we can do"/
Good luck.
ByeI just really don't understand why you took what TLG said so personally. Two guys arguing about trips...happens every day at the track...what was so wrong with what happened here? And then when he questioned the amount you were betting...why did you take that to be a knock? Sounds to me like he was just trying to understand...

Obviously, there are other issues at play here...whatever...

We haven't had one of these "I'm leaving" threads in a while, so I guess I can be thankful for that...the melodrama really isn't that compelling...

[formula_2002]

I just really don't understand why you took what TLG said so personally. Two guys arguing about trips...happens every day at the track...what was so wrong with what happened here? And then when he questioned the amount you were betting...why did you take that to be a knock? Sounds to me like he was just trying to understand...

Obviously, there are other issues at play here...whatever...

We haven't had one of these "I'm leaving" threads in a while, so I guess I can be thankful for that...the melodrama really isn't that compelling...
HELLO!!!
YOU REALLY WANT TO SEE MY POST ON THIS ONE.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/...1368#post861368

[Dahoss9698]

First there's "nothing to beat". Now there needs to be an accident for you to lose.This is a sign of overconfidencial delusion. You claim to be professional but you talk like an amateur.

Shouldn't you be meditating?

[firstoffclaim]

This was a great thread, very interesting all around. Atleast we all care enough about horseracing to spend so much time bantering about one race. What a tough,tough beat for Ben, and to a lesser degree moneywise for me.

[formula_2002]

HELLO!!!
YOU REALLY WANT TO SEE MY POST ON THIS ONE.


CORRECTION
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=68151

[098poi]

That was a tough beat!

A. You had some big money invested
B. It was kind of high profile in that many were focused on this race
C. The race itself! If you had lost because Miss T came in 4th and never contended that would still suck but to regain the lead in the stretch, OUCH!!

My only issue with your pick (I do not make a living at the racetrack by the way so my opinion may not have much weight) is that you keyed everything on a horse in a maiden claimer. As a group I think they are the least reliable, a horse that looks great with great numbers etc. loses and a horse who can't win wins. Well better luck next time.:ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

HELLO!!!
YOU REALLY WANT TO SEE MY POST ON THIS ONE.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/...1368#post861368Very nice pick Joe...you are a hidden treasure on this board...

[formula_2002]

Very nice pick Joe...you are a hidden treasure on this board...
Thanks Mike.
My wife must feel the same way..She keeps telling me to go hide myself!! :)

[cj]

I think we should thank guys like cees with dees. How else could you get $18 on the winner today without guys like him betting?

[Charlie D]

I think we should thank guys like cees with dees. How else could you get $18 on the winner today without guys like him betting?


There was a fair bit of "dumb" money around in Race 9 from Aqueduct CJ, including some of mine. :D

[cj]

There was a fair bit of "dumb" money around in Race 9 from Aqueduct CJ, including some of mine. :D

Even if it didn't turn out, I think these are the kind of races that can make you a winner in the long run. A horse in my mind that was clearly overbet. It only takes one to eliminate the takeout.

[kid4rilla]

I just read this whole thing....I love these kind of threads.....emotion allows real feelings to come out without trying to maintain internet image.

Let it out boys.....mines bigger than yours......


cees, I appreciate you took a stand on your opinion and bet it at the window (although I think the pissing contest might have magnified the bet, if you sent that through).

Light, although I don't pay much attention to your posts, you seem to be outside of the "in-crowd"....probably for a reason. My first reaction was "This guy's and a-hole.....he's "drawing dead for life". but it should be OK to smack down traditional drivel, you just have to do it more civilized. You're an angry dude.

TLG, your part of the illusion that the game can be beaten....so I'm sure your skin has grown thick....there are legions of jealous haters. Guys have put whole lives into the illusion that you are a part of, so the reaction can be severe I would think.

CJ....i've been around a while, and would love to be privy to your pace figs, but your responses have really gotten smart-ass and pompous in tone...IMO

the reality is...your all advanced players....but one could build subdivisions with the losses that all key parts in this thread have lost in this game (strictly paramutuely).

It comes down to.....if you are going to run your mouth.....put your money where your mouth is. (cees tried, if that bet was real) This place should be perfect to develop a standard rule tournament that over time will provide a winner....one that can be agreed on as not a product of the "luck of the format".

Let's see who would win.....I'll take the longshot.

Thanks for the entertainment....and I love this board.

[eastie]

kid, do you write for Family Guy ?

[Cardus]

That was one damned nice meltdown.

[pktruckdriver]

Wow entertainment, this is better than my truckdriving thread for sure.

[cees with dees]

Wow...you're turning back to your jealous self...I remember when you used to bash the NYRA guys even when Andy wasn't working there...now you're doing it again...something tells me you were turned down for a job there or something...am I close?

Now that your true colors are showing...I don't really give a shit if you stay or go...

Wow. I was the one attacked and when I voice back, you show your favoritism.
How sad.

[eastie]

Wow. I was the one attacked and when I voice back, you show your favoritism.
How sad.



There's favoritism in hell too.....get used to it mookie

[PaceAdvantage]

Wow. I was the one attacked and when I voice back, you show your favoritism.
How sad.What's sad has been your constant need to spew your vitriol at the on-air folks at NYRA...this has gone on for YEARS...way before Andy joined up with them...

Yeah, you tried to clean up your act this past year or so, just providing your selections and analysis, but obviously you still have serious issues.

You say you were ATTACKED? Please point out exactly where and how you were attacked. Debating that you might not be 100% correct about your trip assessment of a certain horse is an attack?

I've got news for you...that's not an attack...that's what is SUPPOSED to happen on a board like this...people DEBATE...

Or maybe you feel you were attacked because Andy questioned the amount you were betting?

I've got news again...NOT AN ATTACK...

Next.

[PaceAdvantage]

Oh, and Ben, since I have your attention, can I please inquire as to who exactly "asked you to withdraw from posting."

You claim a moderator asked you to "withdraw from posting." Who exactly? It certainly wasn't me, and CJ already said it wasn't him...and I doubt very much BillW would ask someone to stop posting...he'd just refer it to me...

We never ask anyone to stop posting...if we want someone to stop posing, we just make it so...

Where do you come up with this stuff?

[Rise Over Run]

What's sad has been your constant need to spew your vitriol at the on-air folks at NYRA...this has gone on for YEARS...way before Andy joined up with them...

Yeah, you tried to clean up your act this past year or so, just providing your selections and analysis, but obviously you still have serious issues.

You say you were ATTACKED? Please point out exactly where and how you were attacked. Debating that you might not be 100% correct about your trip assessment of a certain horse is an attack?

I've got news for you...that's not an attack...that's what is SUPPOSED to happen on a board like this...people DEBATE...

Or maybe you feel you were attacked because Andy questioned the amount you were betting?

I've got news again...NOT AN ATTACK...

Next.

Ben's message board melt downs have been legendary, all the way back to the original NYRA message board. :eek: :eek:

[Cardus]

Oh, and Ben, since I have your attention, can I please inquire as to who exactly "asked you to withdraw from posting."

You claim a moderator asked you to "withdraw from posting." Who exactly? It certainly wasn't me, and CJ already said it wasn't him...and I doubt very much BillW would ask someone to stop posting...he'd just refer it to me...

We never ask anyone to stop posting...if we want someone to stop posing, we just make it so...

Where do you come up with this stuff?

It was me. I asked him to withdraw from posting.

Mea culpa, I didn't realize that he would mistake me for you.

Never mind.