Winning/losing days

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Spent the day at the track with a 'newbe' and tried to explain some real basics of this game...the realities if you will. One of the hardest for David to understand was that it is a normal occurance to have a losing day at the races. I explained that losing/winning days are virtually meaningless, and that all that matters is the ledger at the end of a meeting, or end of the year.

Just curious about the percentage of winning days that many of the players on this site have.

Thanks in advance

[CBedo]

The automated (win only) model I have been running wins 58% of the days, but, as you said, measuring on a daily basis doesn't make much sense, especially if you, like my model, have 4x the number of bets on Friday & Saturday that it does on Monday or Tuesday.

[Track Collector]

Spent the day at the track with a 'newbe' and tried to explain some real basics of this game...the realities if you will. One of the hardest for David to understand was that it is a normal occurance to have a losing day at the races. I explained that losing/winning days are virtually meaningless, and that all that matters is the ledger at the end of a meeting, or end of the year.

Just curious about the percentage of winning days that many of the players on this site have.

Thanks in advance

As you stated above, the most importand part is the ledger balance at the end of a significant period of time.

To give you one perspective, the following is from my wagering records over the past several months:

Winning days = 51
Losing days = 79
Chance of winning day = 39%
Date Period --> 11/09/09 thru 03/19/10

NOTE: The above data is exclusive of rebates.

[Robert Goren]

There are losing days and there are completely lost days.;)

[HUSKER55]

i used to worry about that on a week by week basis and then a month by month and then quarter by quarter.


Does every two years seem practical?:D

[rrpic6]

Belmont: I like the advice that winning/losing days are virtually meaningless. Its common (at least for me), to have streaks of losing $300 for 10 days, then have a win of $4000. I'll take one winning day out of eleven to be up a grand. Of course, I don't like all the tylenol and antacids, the tossing and turning at night, and the swearing that happens on those ten bad days.

RR

[46zilzal]

Mitchell used to stress that it was perfectly normal to have runs of 8 or nine in a row before hitting again.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I read somewhere that as we were raised it was taught to always be right every day. This in turn leads some players (especially new comers), to believe that you did something wrong by not winning on the day. I was taught early in the game by an asute old timer that losing is all a part of winning. A losing bet (day) or week etc. is similar to running a business where you have expenses to be incurred in order to make money.

Without a brutal honesty about your strengths or weaknesses in this game...you have no chance of success.

Thanks for the responses

[Robert Goren]

A newcomer to the the game that starts out by having 8 or 9 losing days in a row isn't going to make it to the tenth day.JMO

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

A newcomer to the the game that starts out by having 8 or 9 losing days in a row isn't going to make it to the tenth day.JMO

Have to agree with you Robert. Isn't it amazing that virtually every first timer to the sport has a bang up winning day on the initial outing...at times I would love to simply bet their hunches LOL

[JohnGalt1]

There's the (new) punter who loses 5-6 trips in a row and scraps his handicapping method--leaving a possible winning method for something that sounds good but won't work in the long run.

Then there's the punter who hasn't had a winning year in twenty+ years who steadfastly sticks to his method because "I've always done it this way." And is not even open to slight tweaks because "What worked (?) since 1978 is good enough for me."

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

There's the (new) punter who loses 5-6 trips in a row and scraps his handicapping method--leaving a possible winning method for something that sounds good but won't work in the long run.

Then there's the punter who hasn't had a winning year in twenty+ years who steadfastly sticks to his method because "I've always done it this way." And is not even open to slight tweaks because "What worked (?) since 1978 is good enough for me."


Absolutely John, I have seen some gamblers caught in the switches from one method to another because they were unaware of the percentages and the realities of racing. (Do I sound like Ray Taulbot LOL)

[markgoldie]

The day-to-day results question is a serious one for many bettors. Too many inexperienced (and even some of the ones who should know better) are caught up in trying to at least break even on a day that's going poorly. Because of this, they alter their size and/or style of play in order to get the daily results back on an even keel, especially when the available races are running short.

This inability to quit while behind causes the unnecessary loss of countless dollars as caution and good sense are cast to the wind. Most players will find that they think more clearly and get better results when they are playing from ahead on a given day. This can be attributed to nothing more than a positive, upbeat attitude vs. a gloomy and depressed one. In some cases, this difference can be so pronounced as to make the following recommendation: If you are not ahead after 2 or 3 races, quit and start fresh tomorrow.

For those who have conquered this problem and are able to stick strictly to the game plan no matter the results, there is a step two. And that is the ability to purposely play races in such a way that you KNOW the chances of losing are far greater than that of winning. Why? Because as an aggregate, the race favorite is always the most likely horse to win the race but playing these horses either straight or on top in gimmicks will guarantee you long-term losses. In short, a high cash rate and a high loss rate are closely related.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

The day-to-day results question is a serious one for many bettors. Too many inexperienced (and even some of the ones who should know better) are caught up in trying to at least break even on a day that's going poorly. Because of this, they alter their size and/or style of play in order to get the daily results back on an even keel, especially when the available races are running short.

This inability to quit while behind causes the unnecessary loss of countless dollars as caution and good sense are cast to the wind. Most players will find that they think more clearly and get better results when they are playing from ahead on a given day. This can be attributed to nothing more than a positive, upbeat attitude vs. a gloomy and depressed one. In some cases, this difference can be so pronounced as to make the following recommendation: If you are not ahead after 2 or 3 races, quit and start fresh tomorrow.

For those who have conquered this problem and are able to stick strictly to the game plan no matter the results, there is a step two. And that is the ability to purposely play races in such a way that you KNOW the chances of losing are far greater than that of winning. Why? Because as an aggregate, the race favorite is always the most likely horse to win the race but playing these horses either straight or on top in gimmicks will guarantee you long-term losses. In short, a high cash rate and a high loss rate are closely related.

Good points Markie. I would say that chasing losses is probably the number one killer for gamblers. This is all done for the insatiable "comfort zone" of at least breaking even for THE DAY. More money is lost by bettors who know the right thing to do, but do otherwise then any other factor.

Your other point about generally using the value horse on top of exotics is another very smart and profitable lesson that the vast majority of players refuse to do...again because it goes against human instict to wager on the most likely out come.

[windoor]

The day-to-day results question is a serious one for many bettors. Too many inexperienced (and even some of the ones who should know better) are caught up in trying to at least break even on a day that's going poorly. Because of this, they alter their size and/or style of play in order to get the daily results back on an even keel, especially when the available races are running short.

This inability to quit while behind causes the unnecessary loss of countless dollars as caution and good sense are cast to the wind. Most players will find that they think more clearly and get better results when they are playing from ahead on a given day. This can be attributed to nothing more than a positive, upbeat attitude vs. a gloomy and depressed one. In some cases, this difference can be so pronounced as to make the following recommendation: If you are not ahead after 2 or 3 races, quit and start fresh tomorrow.

For those who have conquered this problem and are able to stick strictly to the game plan no matter the results, there is a step two. And that is the ability to purposely play races in such a way that you KNOW the chances of losing are far greater than that of winning. Why? Because as an aggregate, the race favorite is always the most likely horse to win the race but playing these horses either straight or on top in gimmicks will guarantee you long-term losses. In short, a high cash rate and a high loss rate are closely related.

That is exactly right (imho) and describes me very well as I was a few years ago. Just couldn't handle losing days, much less a losing month.

I like the baseball analogy the best when I try describe how to win at this game. If you can get a "hit" rate at .300 or above at a decent odd over a three month period, you are now a star. But just like the ball player you can go into a slump from time to time.

I use quarterly reports now, and never ( hardly ever :) ) get too concerned until I lose fifty or more units at any given time. Even then, my bank is strong enough to see me through three months at a time no matter what happens.

Regards,

Windoor

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Windoor,


Good post. It take's some time to realize that the game is about long term profit...not on any individual day.

[CincyHorseplayer]

For me every day I pull an 0-fer I balance it out with a big day.The numbers since 2001 say as much,and it happens about 50% of the time on average.The other 50% is roughly even play give or take 20% ROI or loss.

I think the baseball stat analogy is perfect.There is no big picture meaning in small sample sizes.If someone plays once a week all year they have covered roughly 10 racing weeks.I think a racing month is an accurate gauge.I know I can win or lose any given 5 day period,but given a month I think my chances of winning go up precipitously because I'm not forcing the issue.