Tracks rated by Morning Line Accuracy

[Ray2000]

Submitted for amusement purposes only.:lol:


A rating of 1 would be perfect, a rating of 0 means no correlation at all between Morning line and actual Odds at Posttime.

Track........Horses........Rating

BMLP.........14041.........0.730
DD...........12801.........0.707
CALX.........9396..........0.690
BigM.........12988.........0.686
FRD..........7121..........0.680
MR...........15594.........0.678
MOH..........10281.........0.678
WDB..........10867.........0.678
NFLD.........21351.........0.674
MAY..........8245..........0.674
YR...........17103.........0.661
HAR..........11070.........0.649
FHLD.........9871..........0.638
HOP..........8765..........0.634
STGA.........14323.........0.630
BR...........8272..........0.629
INDY.........7902..........0.619
PCD..........14692.........0.612
HP...........5247..........0.604
PPK..........7428..........0.601
ROCK.........3789..........0.600
WR...........7605..........0.588
Aces.........2540..........0.586
CHST.........13725.........0.565
SCD..........5408..........0.564
TGDN.........4277..........0.561
MEA..........18960.........0.554
OD...........2612..........0.552
BANG.........2852..........0.552
VD...........6115..........0.546
LEX..........2394..........0.537
BTVA.........5480..........0.526
LON..........9014..........0.522
NP...........2164..........0.513
LEB..........4667..........0.511
PRC..........5722..........0.510
GEOD.........7442..........0.507
GRVR.........4622..........0.497
CNL..........2535..........0.487
RIDC.........15166.........0.479
SCAR.........7125..........0.475
NOR..........5608..........0.472
FLMD.........16306.........0.459
RP...........5542..........0.439
KD...........7369..........0.428

[Pacingguy]

Unless my eyers are failing me, I notice you don't have a rating for the Meadowlands. Was it just an oversight or a track you don't play?

[Ray2000]

I labeled it "BigM" (#4)


Filtering on just "M" in Excel brings in all track names beginning with "M"

[harness2008]

Do you think that there may be a positive correlation between these percentage figures and average daily track handle? If you notice, from top to bottom the higher handle racetracks seem to be near the top and cascade down to the run of the mill tracks near the bottom. At least that's what I see, could be wrong, I don't know.

I guess it could also mean that there are just better morning line makers at the better racetracks than the others. Interesting chart, thanks for posting it.

[Ray2000]

harness2008

I was going to mention this and you're right, smaller win pools at some tracks allows for a larger variation in odds caused by a just a few bettors. This effect also shows up in many studies comparing tote odds, (converted to crowd probability by correcting for takeout) versus the percent of those horses with those odds who do win.

The think the first data I saw was Frabricand's 1965? who showed horses that have 1/2 the win pool bet on them, win 50%( +-some small error) of their races, 1/4 the pool win 25% and so forth, and as the win pools get larger that error gets smaller.

So one would expect tracks with very small win pools to have a lower correlation between Morning Line and actual odds and also IMO, are the best hunting grounds for overlays... at least for the 5$ punter:). (and the sharp pro handicappers tend to shy away).

Still, it doesn't explain some awful MLs and yes I'm aware the ML creator doesn't know who the driver will be for certain, when he sets the line.

[Sea Biscuit]

Submitted for amusement purposes only.:lol:


A rating of 1 would be perfect, a rating of 0 means no correlation at all between Morning line and actual Odds at Posttime.

Track........Horses........Rating

BMLP.........14041.........0.730
DD...........12801.........0.707
CALX.........9396..........0.690
BigM.........12988.........0.686
FRD..........7121..........0.680
MR...........15594.........0.678
MOH..........10281.........0.678
WDB..........10867.........0.678
NFLD.........21351.........0.674
MAY..........8245..........0.674
YR...........17103.........0.661
HAR..........11070.........0.649
FHLD.........9871..........0.638
HOP..........8765..........0.634
STGA.........14323.........0.630
BR...........8272..........0.629
INDY.........7902..........0.619
PCD..........14692.........0.612
HP...........5247..........0.604
PPK..........7428..........0.601
ROCK.........3789..........0.600
WR...........7605..........0.588
Aces.........2540..........0.586
CHST.........13725.........0.565
SCD..........5408..........0.564
TGDN.........4277..........0.561
MEA..........18960.........0.554
OD...........2612..........0.552
BANG.........2852..........0.552
VD...........6115..........0.546
LEX..........2394..........0.537
BTVA.........5480..........0.526
LON..........9014..........0.522
NP...........2164..........0.513
LEB..........4667..........0.511
PRC..........5722..........0.510
GEOD.........7442..........0.507
GRVR.........4622..........0.497
CNL..........2535..........0.487
RIDC.........15166.........0.479
SCAR.........7125..........0.475
NOR..........5608..........0.472
FLMD.........16306.........0.459
RP...........5542..........0.439
KD...........7369..........0.428

In my opinion Woodbine seems to be a little high with .678.

Last night Mar 20 Race 12 #2 had a ML of 8-1 and he went off at 3/2 and won for fun.

Maybe the morning line man was munching lunch when he was doing them, I dunno.:lol:

Sea Biscuit.

[markgoldie]

Not sure there is any advantage to knowing these percentages as I think that ML odds play a very minimal role in the psychological effects on actual bettors. However, if we are to compare these things properly, field size is a crucial variable. It's obviously much harder to predict the post-time favorite when the average field size is, say 9, as opposed to a track where it's 7.

[melman]

You make good points Mark. However I could never understand the guy who made the line at Rockingham. No matter the size of the field. Never saw a place with 15-1 line shots going off as fav's more than that place.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

Ray

Was wondering if you compare the morning line of just the top picks in each race or the whole field in making these percentages?

rtd

[Ray2000]

Ray

Was wondering if you compare the morning line of just the top picks in each race or the whole field in making these percentages?

rtd


The whole field.

I used a table of the ML of the entry and it's real odds for each track in 2009, and Excel's Correl function to compute the number. The number itself doesn't mean too much, I was more interested in the ranking of the various tracks.

As one can tell from my recent posts, I've been trying to develop a better predictor of final odds based on program information and Track specific info, such as the Crowd's favorite Drivers, Trainers and Posts.

BTW, thanks to everyone who voted in my poll of Tote Board Factors... I guess it shows that presence of a few high rollers will hurt any attempt to computerize a better Morning Line.

My computer program doesn't use Morning Lines in rating the horses and generating its own line, but does use the MLs in hunting for races where longshots may have a better than obvious chance. Here it (computer) uses Morning Line Rank not value, and hunts for races where the computer's top choice is not in the top 3 of MLs (for win bets) or its top 2 choices Morning Line Rank sum is greater than 8 for Exacta play. That filter produces the best results.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

Thanks Ray.