work outs

[BIG HIT]

Hi guys when a horse runs a good race last out followed by a slow work after.I consider it a warning sign of lesser performance.My problem is when they have two works after last race one slower and one faster.the faster of the two is usally faster.How would you guys judge this as a inprovement?Just wonder if you guys had any opinon to share.

[Tom]

Personally, I place very little emphasis on workouts. If they are there, fine, but I sure don't care about the speed. Too many works are left out, assigned to the wrong horse, or mis-stated as to times. At Finger Lakes once, they listed a jockey! as having the best work of the day.
There is no regulation in most places over reporting of works. The best I hope for that they have the date and distance right. And of course, the horse.
Tom

[JimG]

The only tracks I play where I put emphasis on workouts is SoCal. When playing those tracks I have found that regularity of works is important. If you see a "hole" in the works, there is many times a physical malady with the horse.

Jim

[Rick Ransom]

Tom,

Did that jockey ever run against Zippy Chippy?

[JimG]

Originally posted by Tom
At Finger Lakes once, they listed a jockey! as having the best work of the day.

Tom


I would imagine on the Finger Lakes workout tab, there are many days that a jockey may indeed have the best work.

Jim

[Tom]

Good one, guys.
Actually, this is true-Steve Davidowitz was doing a handicapping seminar for Fort Erie a few years ago. One of the pace lines in the DRF was from Finger Lakes. The times for the 1m70 race were, uh, not too swift. Steves asked the group if anyone was familiar with FL and if so, when did they start running harness races there?
Tom

[Tuffmug]

Have found this angle very unreliable. Suggest you focus on positive works and ignore negative ones. If negative work was TRULY negative then trainer would be unlikely to run horse. Look closely at last workout for # of days before race (closer usually better) and try to tie to a particular pattern with this trainer (example Spawr works horse out 2 days before race with Pincay riding is a strong angle indicating live horse)

[hurrikane]

I think the only value in works is in the number, days and length...the time is meaningless. I'm not even convinced the times are valid in calif.

[Larry Hamilton]

There are appoximately 10 fields concerning workous in the TSN/BRIS data base. I have tested all of them.

Here are some of the myths:

Four Furlongs signals the trainers intent to win. Five and Six even better. Really? You mean 3 furlong works are meaningless?

Horses ranked 1st or 2nd for the day are standouts. (bullets)--really? who was it competing against?

Twelve seconds per furlong is a sharp work and another Signal. Really? how about the horse that likes to suanter in the morning? How about the "morning glory" as Druther used to call them.

You must restrict works to individual trainers...really? You mean the trainer either works them short or not at all when he is not serious and works them 4-5-6 furlongs when he is....I would love for this to be true, but it ain't.

You have a system of comparing works to 6 furlong races, a simple extrapolation. Really? You are willing to rate the work, with all the constraints that the trainer and jockey are using on the horse to a race that will be run at flat-out terror-speed.

Recent works are the ticket...Really. So you think that works 3-5 days ago are IT...Not true..May I say here, that the proof is not in saying it, i'ts in the counting.

OK...what's with the popularity of this set of variables. Their value may be when used WITH something else. But they have NOOOOOOO proveable value when used alone.

Here is the main thing to keep in mind about works--Trainers don't win anything with good works. There is no purse for a bullet.

I wish this subject could be plastered on the wall somewhere, it keeps coming up, and each time it is the same old mythical stuff...

[BIG HIT]

Hi larry I was not using them as a stand alone.What i use them for was judge to help judge if the horse was getting better or worse off last race.The real problem was if he ran a solid race with good works before that race and after that race ran say 5f fast and then a slow say3f.Cant tell if it took to much out of him or helped him.When they are faster or near same they usually run good.But when say 1 sec slr they dont seemed to run at well.But when mixed seems to be crap shoot as to where the horse is at

[Larry Hamilton]

sorry i brought it up..sounds like you have a good plan

[hurrikane]

Big Hit...I'm not sure what you are basing your ideas on. You say it 'seems' they run worse...how many races did you look at before it 'seemed that way...100? 500? 5000? Many times what 'seems' to be true really isn't, it seems true because that is the way you remember if..or it happened 3 races in a row so it 'seems' that way.
IMHO...works are only good for one thing..to see that the trainer is getting the horse off his ass and getting him in shape. A horse does'nt just wake up and he's ready to go..he has to train like any other athlete...some trainers use works for that some use races for that. It's more the number of works he horse has run...ie 4 works in 30 days. I don't care how fast the horse ran these works..if the trainer had him work 4 time in the last month then he is serious about winning. Doesnt' mean he can win, or will even be close...just that the trainer is putting up a live horse...that's all..nothing more. Beyond showing intent..I don't feel works have any value..I in no way believe a work shows anything about the horses health and fitness.

[Rick Ransom]

Larry,

Did you check furlongs per day for the last 3 or 4 workouts? 4 works run recently seems to get longshots at some tracks. That's based on about 500 races (which may be too small a sample). Another one I've heard about but haven't tested is that first time starters are better if they have a higher total number of workouts. Maybe over the same track would be better.

The worst thing about workouts is that it's hard to come to any general conclusions about all tracks since the frequency of published workouts varies so much depending on the location.

I did do some testing of times adjusted for distance, ranks, and recency of last and 2nd last workouts. I didn't find much, but a small sample showed better results for a 4 furlong work within 6 days for sprints, and a 6 furlong work within 7 days for routes.

I was trying to find something to identify dangerous first time starters, but it turned out that trainer/jockey factors were more reliable.

[hurrikane]

Rick....a study was done, don't have the exact results but I'll look around...shows 4 works in 30 day a big plus..esp fts. Believe it was done over 70.000 races

[Larry Hamilton]

Interesting questions you raise, Rick...I have a sure fire method for Firsters and maidens...I rarely play them, there will be an easier race in just 20 minutes...

With simulcasting, there is no reason to attempt to make all your plays at one track..play the races where your advantage is best..You don't owe the track owners or state govt a dime..

If you have a successful firster play, don't share it, you are sitting on a gold mine...

[Rick Ransom]

Larry,

There are very few first time starters worth playing. You can just ignore all of them and do all right since overall, they lose way more than average. If I have 3 or more ratable horses in a maiden race, I'll play the race and usually not worry about the firsters. I haven't checked this out, but I think when you have only one horse that has raced before and all of the others are first time starters, probably the guy with one race is an overlay. Of course the win % would be very low.

hurrikane,

My study showed that the horse with the most recent 4th back workout showed a profit at east coast tracks and a loss at west coast tracks. I think most of the profit was from layoff horses. I don't know what to do with something like this. We're talking about maybe 15% wins here maximum. I'll probably use it for $2 action bets when I'm drinking a lot of beer at the track and don't feel like getting serious about handicapping.

[Tom]

Larry,
sounds like you have researched works pretty thoroughly. Thanks for the post. I used to have all sorts of workout rules:spacing, distance, etc. Check out Finger Lakes - one 2fur work is all a lot of horses have
first time out for the year. A lot of farms now have private tracks and pools and treadmills-the works only satisfy the track rules. My new rule is, if the horse makes it from the barn to the paddock, this is a recent work out and he is probably fit.
Tom

[smf]

Big Hit,

If you ever get the chance to go to a track for morning works, do yourself a favor and go watch the works. I used to sit in my office and think I knew what workouts meant. Being there s/ give a new meaning to you about works, I believe.

A year ago I went to LS in the a.m. The leading trainer here ran all his younger horses between other horses (in tight quarters), and didn't care about "times". He was (i assume) continuing the learning process for the younger runners.

However, You can get some decent trainer specific workout patterns by saving winner's pp's. Not many, but any winning pattern is worth digging for. For 3 years Cole Norman had a set pattern for his younger horses and newly claimed runners. The winning pattern was almost faultless, winning over 75%, some at nice odds. That pattern for the most part isn't there anymore.

A particular trainer that wreaked havoc at LS in turf races had a definitive workout pattern for all his route winners here (although "he" wasn't on the grounds). That pattern went 6 of 8 before the asst trainer left for Illinois/ Ky.

[Barchyman]

One of the only workout related factors I use is a negative one. First time starters with more than 2 gate works are an automatic toss for me. Too many times these are the ones who dwell at the gate, or get themselves so worked up in the gate before the start that they pop out like gangbusters, only to fade after a 1/4 mile.

If the trainer feels the need to put them in the gate for a work more than twice - there's probably a problem.

Tom

[The Judge]

I don't know how to evaluate a horse that runs a good race then has a slower then usual workout. We don't know anything about the jockey whose working the horse that day. Maybe the trainer thinks the horse is fit because of the good race. Who knows? I however am not ready to say fast workouts don't mean a thing. Ever see a first time start work a 1:10 flat. You know you won't be betting that race. Sunday Silence work a 1:33 mile before the B.C. a 7f work in 1:24 flat gets my attention every time.

[BMeadow]

For sourthern California, services such as Handicappers Report, National Turf, and Today's Racing Digest are invaluable for describing the quality of the workouts, particularly for first-time starters and layoff horses.

I can't imagine playing firsters without the knowledge that Horse A's 1:12 was all-out and visually unimpressive, while Horse B's 1:12 was under double wraps and was his fourth straight powerful, under-wraps work.