View Full Version : How Badly Will MTH Hurt SAR?
Saratoga_Mike
03-16-2010, 07:49 PM
With purses projected to avg $1 mm/day at MTH this summer, I wonder what impact it will have on the quality and field sizes at Saratoga? Unfortunately, I think it hurts both. Granted there's something very special about winning at Saratoga or even walking into the paddock, but to many the money at MTH will be an irresistible lure. In my opinion, NYRA should do everything in their power to protect the Spa meet, including considering reducing the BEL and/or fall AQU schedule in order to compete more effectively with MTH.
NYRA horsemen can take some of those 10K claimers they have that are only worth 5K and run them in Jersey for $30K purses.
Tampa Russ
03-16-2010, 08:45 PM
NYRA horsemen can take some of those 10K claimers they have that are only worth 5K and run them in Jersey for $30K purses.
..only to be beaten by the 5K claimers shipping in fron the PHA.
DRIVEWAY
03-16-2010, 09:00 PM
Philly and Delaware will have even more 4 or 5 horse fields. These mid-atlantic tracks need to coordinate their summer schedules.
lamboguy
03-16-2010, 09:41 PM
saratoga is still the best place to train 2 yo's. they still will have good purses, they have great allowance races, and unreal stake races. if they are going to lose the bottom $20 claimers, to another venue, such is life.
alhattab
03-16-2010, 09:44 PM
Philly and Delaware will have even more 4 or 5 horse fields. These mid-atlantic tracks need to coordinate their summer schedules.
At least the Pha closes almost all of August- that helps. I don't think the Spa gets hurt that much, esp if Mth attracts the west coast barns looking for dirt and more of the CD crowd, and maybe even more from Calder. And of course the Spa has the market cornered on the NYBs, which negatively affects quality but not field size.
Mth released stakes sched today and they're running $100k minimum overnight stakes vs. $75k for NYRA. This really helps the mega stables who can split up the horses with similar surface/distance preferences. For example, Spa running the "Curlin" for $75k @ 1 1/8 miles on 8/1. Mth running the "Majestic Light" for $150k on 8/1 (Haskell Day). The "Quick Call" at Spa on 7/29 worth $75k vs the Jersey Derby worth $150k on 8/1.
I wonder how the Jock situation will play out. Mth should attract more name jocks, and I think that does help drive handle. My guess is that the jocks line up with their trainer clients, and the trainers tell them where they want the jock to ride that day. During the Bel meet you'll also see more chopper landings in the Mth parking lot.
InsideThePylons-MW
03-16-2010, 09:48 PM
TB racing is now repeating the same mistakes that harness racing has made to kill their top of the line product.
Horseplayersbet.com
03-16-2010, 09:51 PM
I think we are looking at strong dilution, and I don't see either tracks winning here.
sandpit
03-16-2010, 09:55 PM
I see plenty of NY bred racing coming this summer, that is if they can fill those races.
johnhannibalsmith
03-16-2010, 09:58 PM
I think we are looking at strong dilution, and I don't see either tracks winning here.
Agreed.
LottaKash
03-16-2010, 10:02 PM
Folks, from where I sit, I do believe that the "Shakedown" of Horse-Racing, has definitely begun....
The Meadowlands will not have any T-bred dates this year, and the Harness end of it, so far, has paired down their current 5-day operation(s) down to 3 (Thurs thru Sat) from now on, until they decide how to go from there.....
Rockingham Park will not card any T-bred racing in 2010...Not sure about Harness, but I think it was canned as well..
Now with $5K-clm's running for $60K, well, that is ludicrous to me....
I predict that, at least 3 or 4 borderline tracks will make some monumental changes, if not closing altogether this year.....
The economy is going into shambles, and no new players are on the horizon, so I think that what is happening today is just the beginning of the "Great-Shakeout"....time will tell...
What is next, or should I say, "who is next"...
best,
the little guy
03-16-2010, 10:05 PM
When people talk about riders leaving NY for Monmouth they aren't necessarily factoring in that Monmouth will only run three days a week. Now, obviously they could ride two days in NY, and then go to Monmouth, but it's hard to believe their business will be very strong for those two days.
It'll be interesting.
DRIVEWAY
03-16-2010, 10:08 PM
At least the Pha closes almost all of August- that helps. I don't think the Spa gets hurt that much, esp if Mth attracts the west coast barns looking for dirt and more of the CD crowd, and maybe even more from Calder. And of course the Spa has the market cornered on the NYBs, which negatively affects quality but not field size.
Mth released stakes sched today and they're running $100k minimum overnight stakes vs. $75k for NYRA. This really helps the mega stables who can split up the horses with similar surface/distance preferences. For example, Spa running the "Curlin" for $75k @ 1 1/8 miles on 8/1. Mth running the "Majestic Light" for $150k on 8/1 (Haskell Day). The "Quick Call" at Spa on 7/29 worth $75k vs the Jersey Derby worth $150k on 8/1.
I wonder how the Jock situation will play out. Mth should attract more name jocks, and I think that does help drive handle. My guess is that the jocks line up with their trainer clients, and the trainers tell them where they want the jock to ride that day. During the Bel meet you'll also see more chopper landings in the Mth parking lot.
Pha closed last august to replace track. They do that every two or three years. I believe they are open in august this year.
Your thoughts about mega stables really make for interesting scenerios. Horses will be cross entered all over the place.
Robert Goren
03-16-2010, 10:12 PM
Mth will get a few horses that it might not have gotten otherwise, but the whole thing has failure written all over it. There no way the handle can come even close to justifying those purses. Horsemen enjoy this year because things are going to crashing back to earth next year. When will they get it? It is not about the horses but the betters. JMO
Robert Fischer
03-16-2010, 10:31 PM
Most owners would rather win or lose at "The Spa" than at Monmouth. It's prestigious.
If Monmouth does a great job, and works their butts off to actual build their product the way they have indicated, you could see it affect certain classes of horses several years down the line.
Money talks, and for now you will see nice fields at Monmouth for any inflated purse races they run, but it won't hurt SAR.
Indulto
03-17-2010, 04:16 AM
Like an actual horse race, the New Jersey experiment needs to be conducted to its conclusion to determine who the winners really will be.
I expect MTH ‘s off-track handle will increase at the expense of all tracks except SAR --- DMR, in particular --and its on-track handle and attendance will increase at the expense of BEL.
However it turns out, it won’t be a failure unless it gets insufficient support from the players. IMO we have to show the industry that we’ll support it if they take risks to give us a better deal. If the 50c Pick Five continues with a 15% takeout while improving field size and quality, I think we should reward MTH for giving us what we’ve been asking for; especially if we want such efforts to be duplicated by other tracks.
It might not hurt if MTH took a cue from MEC and provided DRF PPs for those 5 races at no charge on-line like the Magna 5
Rise Over Run
03-17-2010, 05:00 AM
Pha closed last august to replace track. They do that every two or three years. I believe they are open in august this year.
Your thoughts about mega stables really make for interesting scenerios. Horses will be cross entered all over the place.
The PHA will not race from August 4 (Wed) thru August 29 (Sun) in 2010. Same schedule as the past 3 years from what I can remember.
Robert Goren
03-17-2010, 06:27 AM
How is getting horses from PHA a good thing?
DRIVEWAY
03-17-2010, 06:55 AM
The PHA will not race from August 4 (Wed) thru August 29 (Sun) in 2010. Same schedule as the past 3 years from what I can remember.
You're right. This will ease the pressure for horses.
alhattab
03-17-2010, 08:43 AM
Pha closed last august to replace track. They do that every two or three years. I believe they are open in august this year.
Your thoughts about mega stables really make for interesting scenerios. Horses will be cross entered all over the place.
Pha closes 8/3 and reopens 8/30.
http://www.philadelphiapark.com/Racetrack/live_calendar.php
I agree- welcome to cross-entry hell
onefast99
03-17-2010, 09:01 AM
How is getting horses from PHA a good thing?
With the purses so good PP has drawn many solid horses for the winter meet. Many of those horses may have been sent to the farm for a break or down to Tampa or Gulfstream. $7500 claimers running for 21k is reason enough to race at PP.
Mth will get a few horses that it might not have gotten otherwise, but the whole thing has failure written all over it. There no way the handle can come even close to justifying those purses. Horsemen enjoy this year because things are going to crashing back to earth next year. When will they get it? It is not about the horses but the betters. JMO
Last I heard the racing secretary had more than 6,000 stall applications for 1,600 stalls. That means that Mth will be full and so will all the training centers in the state. Combine that with the fact that horses who normally wouldn't have raced at Mth will be shipping in, and you get plenty of new horses and stock that they wouldn't have gotten otherwise.
That having been said, I generally agree with the rest of this post. Handle would probably have to triple to sustain this experiment, and I don't believe there is any way this will happen. If governor Christie holds to his guns on state spending, there will be no money from NJ to prop up the purses next year, and the casino "supplement" runs out after this year.
Will things come crashing back to earth next year? Well that depends. If Mth wants to continue at $1 million per day they probably can, but that would mean running 40 or 35 days.
Since the small NJ horseman has already been knifed in the back (with the good graces of the elitists), what's to stop them from doing that?
Robert Goren
03-17-2010, 11:55 AM
While I like full fields their takeout in the pools I bet is still pretty high. I will look over their cards and make few bets, but I would bet a lot more if they dropped their takeout 2-3% points. Give the people value for their betting buck and they will come. I don't consider higher purses as an increase in value for wagering purposes. JMO
Robert Goren
03-17-2010, 11:59 AM
With the purses so good PP has drawn many solid horses for the winter meet. Many of those horses may have been sent to the farm for a break or down to Tampa or Gulfstream. $7500 claimers running for 21k is reason enough to race at PP.21k for $7500 claimer is a good reason for running a doped up sore horse instead of giving it a chance heal up. JMO
When people talk about riders leaving NY for Monmouth they aren't necessarily factoring in that Monmouth will only run three days a week. Now, obviously they could ride two days in NY, and then go to Monmouth, but it's hard to believe their business will be very strong for those two days.
It'll be interesting.
I think they will pay all the way to last at Mth.
What does Saratoga pay - to 5th?
That might draw a be an incentive for lesser horses to take a ride down.
21k for $7500 claimer is a good reason for running a doped up sore horse instead of giving it a chance heal up. JMO
Like at Penn?
andicap
03-17-2010, 12:27 PM
While I like full fields their takeout in the pools I bet is still pretty high. I will look over their cards and make few bets, but I would bet a lot more if they dropped their takeout 2-3% points. Give the people value for their betting buck and they will come. I don't consider higher purses as an increase in value for wagering purposes. JMO
To me, a higher -- but not ridiculous takeout -- with 11-12 horse fields is better than a lower takeout with 7-horse fields. The odds, particularly in exotics, are just so much better it overrides the dollar or two you lose on a few points of takeout.
I'm a bit surprised by all the negativity here on the Monmouth plan. Isn't this exactly what many people around here have been calling for? Fewer racing days, larger fields and higher purses. You need the latter to attract the bigger fields.
Now I do agree this experiment seems a bit extreme -- tripling purses -- but the buzz around the three days of racing each week will be considerable among horseplayers and Monmouth is likely to attract bigger crowds. That means more money from concessions and parking as well.
Im not versed well enough in the economics of off-track wagering to predict if the boon in handle that is sure to come will make up for the higher purses, but I'm happy Monmouth and New Jersey are thinking outside the box a bit and providing us with an excellent summer of racing. If it fails, well, at least they tried something novel. HOWEVER, I do agree with the point about the dilution of high-stakes racing. That is a serious concern. I see some small fields at Saratoga and other tracks for some higher-class races. Just not enough good horses to go around, except maybe on the grass.
As for the "crash" coming in horse racing -- it's long overdue for several tracks to close. No reason we need so many, such as around the mid-Atlantic area. That doesn't mean all the small tracks will close -- racinos are propping up many of them. (I'm not talking about the closing of one track in a circuit so that the other track has to operate alone -- like in SoCal with Hollywood. That's unfortunate because racing benefits from the change in venues during the year.)
It's Economics 101 -- when the demand for your product declines, you need to reduce the supply. Like it or not the competition for the gambling dollar -- as well as the industry's own incompetence, of coruse -- has hit racing hard so the best thing to happen is the supply to compensate. I would figure all the free, open-market conservatives on this board would understate that basic bit of business.
Robert Goren
03-17-2010, 12:35 PM
I think NJ would be better off competing for gamblers rather than horses. JMO
onefast99
03-17-2010, 05:49 PM
21k for $7500 claimer is a good reason for running a doped up sore horse instead of giving it a chance heal up. JMO
Hopefully the trainers do the right thing for those needing the rest.
Robert Goren
03-17-2010, 06:00 PM
The fields will start out as big, but will slowly shrink over time while the takeout stays the same or goes higher. Mark my words. This business model of NJ racing has no chance of succeeding. JMO
onefast99
03-17-2010, 06:56 PM
The fields will start out as big, but will slowly shrink over time while the takeout stays the same or goes higher. Mark my words. This business model of NJ racing has no chance of succeeding. JMO
There have been many NY trainers looking for stall space at MP so the NJ model is working, thus far.
InsideThePylons-MW
03-17-2010, 07:10 PM
The fields will start out as big, but will slowly shrink over time while the takeout stays the same or goes higher. Mark my words. This business model of NJ racing has no chance of succeeding. JMO
Steve Zorn....Another owner/bloodstock agent/equine partnership manager and obvious non-bettor wants to kill handle and rob horseplayers.......
"A product like Monmouth’s should command a premium fee — at least one-third of the takeout, if not more."
Let's keep raising those host fees and see how far handle will drop.
If they keep raising host fees, there is absolutely NO CHANCE that there will ever be ANY takeout reduction that matters EVER.
Horseplayersbet.com
03-17-2010, 07:14 PM
Steve Zorn....Another owner/bloodstock agent/equine partnership manager and obvious non-bettor wants to kill handle and rob horseplayers.......
"A product like Monmouth’s should command a premium fee — at least one-third of the takeout, if not more."
Let's keep raising those host fees and see how far handle will drop.
If they keep raising host fees, there is absolutely NO CHANCE that there will ever be ANY takeout reduction that matters EVER.
I'm surprised Zorn would say that. It wasn't on his blog, where did he say it?
InsideThePylons-MW
03-17-2010, 07:20 PM
I'm surprised Zorn would say that. It wasn't on his blog, where did he say it?
http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/paulick-report-forum-brought-to-you-by-breeders-cup-a-monmouth-change-in-strategy/comment-page-1/#comment-25691
Comment 20
Zorn has said a couple bad things like that before but I gave him a pass because he seemed not to understand what he was talking about.
This one gets no pass.
alhattab
03-17-2010, 07:25 PM
While on subject of Mth, a few thoughts on the stakes sched:
-Why not start the meet off with a bang by filling the void left by the Pimlico Special? I saw on another blog suggestion of "renting" the special from Magna which would allow it to keep its grade. Run it opening weekend which gives 4 weeks 'til the Foster. Even if they just moved the Iselin or Mth Cup.
-Why run the Iselin in its current spot at 1 1/8 miles? Spa has two races at same distance over 6 week period. Make the Iselin 1 1/4 miles if kept in the current mid/late August slot.
-3 races for 3YO over 6 weeks seems like a bit much, no? How about running one Memorial Day weekend rather than June 18 (G2Pegasus, moved from Club Med- $200k), July 11 (Long Branch- $175k) and August 1 (G1 Haskell)
-A buddy of mine suggested 2-turn 2YO races in late Sept/early Oct that would provide the only 2 turn dirt preps for the BC Juvy and Juvy Fillies (run on CD dirt this year) outside of Calder. Why not?
If they're being aggressive, they would help bring more national attention to the meet by starting off with a bang and keeping the attention going through Sept. Overall though, people must be licking their chops at what looks like multiple $100k races every weekend, in some cases 3 or 4 each weekend.
Deepsix
03-17-2010, 07:26 PM
Over the years I've read Steve Zorn's contributions from several online sources and I've found him to be a very level headed guy.
Horseplayersbet.com
03-17-2010, 07:30 PM
http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/paulick-report-forum-brought-to-you-by-breeders-cup-a-monmouth-change-in-strategy/comment-page-1/#comment-25691
Comment 20
Zorn has said a couple bad things like that before but I gave him a pass because he seemed not to understand what he was talking about.
This one gets no pass.
Actually, I misread you the first time. I thought he was talking takeout rate increase.
Zorn is actually a proponent of a 12% takeout, with 1/3 going to the track, 1/3 to the ADW and 1/3 to the horsemen.
I think that is reasonable believe it or not. If all tracks were at a 12% takeout, there would be no need for rebates. We'd have plenty of growth from newbies, and if anyone was good enough, the game could be beaten without rebates.
InsideThePylons-MW
03-17-2010, 07:35 PM
Zorn is actually a proponent of a 12% takeout, with 1/3 going to the track, 1/3 to the ADW and 1/3 to the horsemen.
I think that is reasonable believe it or not. If all tracks were at a 12% takeout, there would be no need for rebates. We'd have plenty of growth from newbies, and if anyone was good enough, the game could be beaten without rebates.
I have no problem with that.
I do have a problem with 1/3 or more host fees on a 25% takeout track.
If tracks with those takeout rates start charging 10% host fees........You and I both know that there will never be any takeout reductions ever.
Ian Meyers
03-17-2010, 07:37 PM
If Monmouth’s off-track handle is $3 million and they get 3%, that’s only $90,000 to split with purses, or $45,000 each.
The above from Fred Pope in Paulick's story.
NO ADW pays 3% for the MTH signal. The going rate is 6%+; some pay as much as 7 or 7.50%. I'd be surprised if tracks are paying them as little as 3%.
I have no idea where he is getting that from.
InsideThePylons-MW
03-17-2010, 07:40 PM
The above from Fred Pope in Paulick's story.
NO ADW pays 3% for the MTH signal. The going rate is 6%+; some pay as much as 7 or 7.50%. I'd be surprised if tracks are paying them as little as 3%.
I have no idea where he is getting that from.
He is just cementing his position as dumbest human on the planet.
Horseplayersbet.com
03-17-2010, 07:44 PM
The above from Fred Pope in Paulick's story.
NO ADW pays 3% for the MTH signal. The going rate is 6%+; some pay as much as 7 or 7.50%. I'd be surprised if tracks are paying them as little as 3%.
I have no idea where he is getting that from.
I'm surprised Fred Pope doesn't realize there are two prices. One for bricks and mortars and the other for ADWs.
I understand that Steve Zorn might not......but Pope.
I thought he was supposed to be some kind of guru/expert.
Horseplayersbet.com
03-17-2010, 07:46 PM
He is just cementing his position as dumbest human on the planet.
The guy is completely out of touch with the customer.
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