I am so sick and tired

[cees with dees]

Of hearing people talk about bouncing, and recovery.
This was all verbiage brought about with the invention of the "sheets".
From personal experience. I used to run cross country.
The races were 5 miles or more. I retired a maiden but all kidding aside, the next day I was usually sore. By the second, feeling well, and by the third ready to roll again.
Horses run less than two minutes for the majority of all races and are only usually asked the last 1/4 mile.
Now think about this using common sense.
Also, a horse generally runs his best numbers winning either loose on the lead or getting a good trip off the pace.
If a horse crosses the wire in hand, why should he go backwards next time as opposed to the horse that was being whipped and driven while backing through the field.
It makes no sense because it's not true.
I watch all the races in Ny and challenge any person in the world to show me an example where they think a horse bounced. I guarantee I can give you an answer that explains the poor performance. And it usually involves a different trip, distance, surface condition or class hike.
Ben

[oddsmaven]

I guarantee I can give you an answer that explains the poor performance. And it usually involves a different trip, distance, surface condition or class hike.
Ben
Agreed - a huge win is often followed by a strong hike in class that can often lead to failed repeat performances.

[46zilzal]

INDIVIDUALS have different responses to physical stress:humans and horses.

Barrera tells all that he had Affirmed to tight for the start of his four year old campaign and it showed IN THAT ANIMAL.

[OTM Al]

I think it does happen, but far far less than people claim it does. Reversion to mean should not equal a bounce and that's what too many use it for.

[DJofSD]

Here's some one else that tired too: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-pmpgrYQgs

[WinterTriangle]

INDIVIDUALS have different responses to physical stress: humans and horses.



Yes.

Handicapping them all the same according to some "rule", and as cees says, may not even be a true rule, is a nonsensical approach.

[cees with dees]

Thank you all for your feedback.
It's nice to disagree without it being nasty and I think all of you have valid opinions.
Thanks again.
Ben

[BlueShoe]

Agreed - a huge win is often followed by a strong hike in class that can often lead to failed repeat performances.
True, but often these types come right back and repeat at the higher class level. If only we could predict which ones will handle the raise and which ones will regress.

[Space Monkey]

I've found that trying to figure out if a horse will bounce is like flipping a coin. As many times you are right, you will be wrong.

[therussmeister]

I bounce every time. Whenever I take a few weeks off I do great my first day back, then lousy the second day. This is not limited to playing the horses, but with any hobby I've had, and was an observed pattern before I ever got involved with horse racing, and therefore before I heard of the bounce theory (never heard of it outside of horse racing).

I do consider that these days it may be a self-fulfilling prophesy.

[Hammerhead]

I do not have much to say but what I see is that favorites bounce because there odds are to low so they pull the horse. It will mostly make the bottom of a tri or stuperfecta. This generates them to 2nd favorite or better next time out. Connections make money. Simple unless the purse is of any value. Then they may go for it. Only play races that the purse is 30,000 or more. Other wise roll the dice.

[Hammerhead]

Don't see how to edit but also watch and see how much better your horse runs to form on Saturday versus Monday. Could it be more people at the track? Bigger purses?

[Greyfox]

Bounce?
Does the age of the horse matter?
Can a 3 year old recover quicker than a 9 year old? I think so in most instances.

[Hammerhead]

Amongst me managare of animals I have on the property are 3 horses.
Male 5 years Male 9 years Female 20 years. The 5 year old has spunk and a big size advantage. The female is kind and placid. The 9 year old rules the roost and takes charge of them all. He eats out of every ones buckets when and how he feels.
Then there is the dam duck. Class.

[Stillriledup]

CWD,

I think you're misunderstanding the concept of the bounce. The problem with the term as its currently used is that most people think bounce = bad performance. This is completely not true. A bounce is a horse running a number, followed by a faster number, followed by a slower number. This has nothing to do with how good or bad a horse races. Bounce is just a term to describle numbers on a graph, they don't have anything to do with what you are talking about.

Horses are different than humans because they weigh 5 times the amount, and they have legs that are not even as big in some cases....not to mention a little man on their back smacking them in the ass to go faster. (putting 100+lbs on the small of their backs)

[castaway01]

CWD, you generally seem pretty sharp, but I don't understand the comparison between your long-ago races and horses "bouncing". You knew why you were there, you chose to race, you weren't getting hit with a whip, and you have a brain capable of rationalizing what is going on. A horse is only doing what we humans tell it too, while we try to figure out what it is doing and why.

Like most other things, there are "bounces" but people use the term too often. Doesn't mean the whole theory is worthless though.