Rachel or Z's Beyer fig, which will be higher?

[Stillriledup]

The horse Z beat is a horse who hasn't hit the board in 2 years. Is a horse who hasn't hit the board in 2 years going to get a HIGHER Beyer fig than Rachel?

This ought to be interesting. Everyone is saying that Rachel is finished, toast, finito, no good and Z is as good as ever, but wouldn't it be funny if Rachel actually got a higher Beyer fig?

Rachel lost by a length to a horse who is far superior to the horse who Zenyatta beat by 1 and 1 quarter lengths. 64 dollar question, is Zardana 2 lengths better than the horse who finished 2nd to Zenyatta today? I think there's a lot of proof that she is.

[ghostyapper]

It's amazing how even after all she has proven that people continue to use who zenyatta beats or how many lengths she beats them by to downgrade her performance or want to rely on her speed figures to judge her performance

I thought the bc classic last year ended all that but I guess some don't learn.

[stringmail]

I don't think it really matters what the Beyer ends up. You might as well ask Shirreffs if he thinks Zardana is within 2 lengths of Zenyatta. I think you know the answer.

[GMB@BP]

I came up with around 90 for Zenyatta, best case is about 93, the track was pretty quick today. I have about the same for the 3 year old race as well, maybe a point lower.

Beyer will have to make something up if its above 100 for Zenyatta.

I would assume on figures RA ran the much better race.

[Relwob Owner]

The horse Z beat is a horse who hasn't hit the board in 2 years. Is a horse who hasn't hit the board in 2 years going to get a HIGHER Beyer fig than Rachel?

This ought to be interesting. Everyone is saying that Rachel is finished, toast, finito, no good and Z is as good as ever, but wouldn't it be funny if Rachel actually got a higher Beyer fig?

Rachel lost by a length to a horse who is far superior to the horse who Zenyatta beat by 1 and 1 quarter lengths. 64 dollar question, is Zardana 2 lengths better than the horse who finished 2nd to Zenyatta today? I think there's a lot of proof that she is.


I think Rachel ran about a 91 from what I have read here and I highly doubt Zenyatta ran lower than a 100 Beyer....comparing horses who ran against one another on different days at different tracks can prove about 100 different arguments in some way but you have a hard time proving one well, I have found......better question would be if Secret Getaway is a better horse than Rachel and Zardana, considering he ran faster on the same day, at the same distance....

[Saratoga_Mike]

The horse Z beat is a horse who hasn't hit the board in 2 years. Is a horse who hasn't hit the board in 2 years going to get a HIGHER Beyer fig than Rachel?

This ought to be interesting. Everyone is saying that Rachel is finished, toast, finito, no good and Z is as good as ever, but wouldn't it be funny if Rachel actually got a higher Beyer fig?
Rachel lost by a length to a horse who is far superior to the horse who Zenyatta beat by 1 and 1 quarter lengths. 64 dollar question, is Zardana 2 lengths better than the horse who finished 2nd to Zenyatta today? I think there's a lot of proof that she is.

Actually it would be par for the course - since turning 3, RA has fairly consistently posted superior Beyers to Z. I think RA ran a 92 today. I didn't bother trying to calculate a Beyer for Z, though.

[Tom]

The Beyers will reflect what they always reflect. The speed of the horses in one race. What the horse did in previous races has zero to do with it.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Just ck'd out the SA results, today's variants in the route races all lined up very closely. I'd call the track fast by 22 for the routes. If that's correct, Z ran a 98, compared with RA's 92.

[ArlJim78]

its foolish to think you can compare the margins of the two horses today and come up with any kind of meaningful information. those were altogether different surfaces and racing circumstances.

[Saratoga_Mike]

its foolish to think you can compare the margins of the two horses today and come up with any kind of meaningful information. those were altogether different surfaces and racing circumstances.

That's the whole pt of Beyers

[Relwob Owner]

That's the whole pt of Beyers


Indeed......

[PaceAdvantage]

I'd be pretty shocked if Rachel got as low as a 92...I don't think her race is going to come up that poorly at all...then again, I don't make speed figures, so this is all going by gut opinion, which doesn't mean much I admit.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I'd be pretty shocked if Rachel got as low as a 92...I don't think her race is going to come up that poorly at all...then again, I don't make speed figures, so this is all going by gut opinion, which doesn't mean much I admit.

You may be right on that - I don't have as much confidence in the FG projections. But the SA variants lined up perfectly. I wish CJ would post his numbers. I only try to calculate figures for big races and my own horses, so I could be way off.

[ArlJim78]

That's the whole pt of Beyers
:D okay, good luck with that.

[Relwob Owner]

I'd be pretty shocked if Rachel got as low as a 92...I don't think her race is going to come up that poorly at all...then again, I don't make speed figures, so this is all going by gut opinion, which doesn't mean much I admit.



the time for Rachel's race, when compared with how fast others were at different distances and classes for the day, seemed pretty slow....

If Z ran a 98 and Rachel ran a 92, then that delta seems to be a lot less damning than some would think in terms of the Z, Rachel comparison, esp if Rachel was much less fit.....that Beyer is a big dropoff for Zenyatta from her BC effort, even if she did have a tough trip

[Saratoga_Mike]

:D okay, good luck with that.

Impressive response.

[Relwob Owner]

Impressive response.


You dont think that emoticon fits?

[Saratoga_Mike]

the time for Rachel's race, when compared with how fast others were at different distances and classes for the day, seemed pretty slow....

If Z ran a 98 and Rachel ran a 92, then that delta seems to be a lot less damning than some would think in terms of the Z, Rachel comparison, esp if Rachel was much less fit.....that Beyer is a big dropoff for Zenyatta from her BC effort, even if she did have a tough trip

True, but consistent with her two Beyers prior to the BC (97 and 99).

[Robert Goren]

2 points

1) Beyers on poly aren't worth much.
2) Anyone who thinks RA ran a better race than Z today is smoking some top shelf stuff and they should share.

[PaceAdvantage]

2 points

1) Beyers on poly aren't worth much.
2) Anyone who thinks RA ran a better race than Z today is smoking some top shelf stuff and they should share.1) They were worth a helluva lot on Breeders' Cup day...not that I used them...but I did redboard them after the fact in a now famous thread.

2) Considering the demands of the two completely different surfaces, I'm sure there is at least some room for debate if I think long and hard enough...

[Saratoga_Mike]

1) They were worth a helluva lot on Breeders' Cup day...not that I used them...but I did redboard them after the fact in a now famous thread.

2) Considering the demands of the two completely different surfaces, I'm sure there is at least some room for debate if I think long and hard enough...

Only the Ability X factor outperformed Beyers on BC Day 2009.

[tzipi]

Heard that the Beyer was 100.

[Dahoss9698]

Zardana got a 101.
Rachel Alexandra got a 100.
Zenyatta's isn't out yet.

[johnhannibalsmith]

*...here comes eight pages declaring Beyer a biased fraud...*

[GMB@BP]

Zardana got a 101.
Rachel Alexandra got a 100.
Zenyatta's isn't out yet.


zenyatta 75...ha she did only beat a 50/1 shot

[Stillriledup]

the horse Z beat by 1.25 lengths usually runs an 88 and her best numbers seem to hover in the low 90s. If Z ran a 100, that means Dance to My Tune ran a 96? I know beyer is going to be concious of not giving Dance to My Tune much higher than a 95, after all, she's a high 80s kind of performer.

The horse who ran 3rd in the Rachel race is very similar to Dance to my tune from a beyer standpoint.

[GMB@BP]

the horse Z beat by 1.25 lengths usually runs an 88 and her best numbers seem to hover in the low 90s. If Z ran a 100, that means Dance to My Tune ran a 96? I know beyer is going to be concious of not giving Dance to My Tune much higher than a 95, after all, she's a high 80s kind of performer.

The horse who ran 3rd in the Rachel race is very similar to Dance to my tune from a beyer standpoint.

The track was quick today

mdn specials went 1:15 earlier in the day....alw2x went in 142 2/5, and 10k claimers went 109.

So to me that is pretty quick, the 148 1/5 is ok but nothing great, combine that with the other fillies form I get 92 or so.

Now not sure how much speed figures matter on this junk, I am pretty certain Zenyatta is a faster Beyer figure horse on dirt.

[cj]

I haven't done the speed figures for the day, but it looks to me like the pace in RA's race was average...pace and speed about the same. Zenyatta's race had a very fast pace for synthetics, the pace number 18 Beyer style points higher than the speed figure.

[GMB@BP]

CJ, the pace of the last race was indicitive to me how quick the track was, 21 and the leader is beaten by 2.5 at 8/1.

If I did not see it was a synthetic track I would say time wise todays track was like 2007.

[cj]

CJ, the pace of the last race was indicitive to me how quick the track was, 21 and the leader is beaten by 2.5 at 8/1.

If I did not see it was a synthetic track I would say time wise todays track was like 2007.

Are you trying to tell me the pace wasn't fast for Zenyatta's race?

I'm saying in relation to the final time, the leader set a very fast pace. I'm not talking about the overall speed of the track. Just look at the pace time of the San Felipe at a shorter distance two races later.

[Greyfox]

Only the Ability X factor outperformed Beyers on BC Day 2009.

:lol: :lol: :lol: Luv your humor here. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[JeremyJet]

Zardana got a 101.
Rachel Alexandra got a 100.
Zenyatta's isn't out yet.

Where did they announce the number?

I doubt ZENYATTA will get a better number based on the margin she won by. Lifetime best for the rest of the field is a 93 Beyer.

[Jasonm921]

Well that shows she wasn't fit so we have to think she will come back to a 105-108 number next time. Who knows?

[bisket]

beyers are out on some stakes from yesterday. i'm sure they are tinkering with zens. its not out.
http://drf.com/stakeresults/drfStakeResults.jsp

[Robert Goren]

Is there no end to the spin that RA fans are putting out? Your horse got beat. Time to move on. JMO

[Tom]

Z's race yesterday is a perfect example of why you look at how the figure was earned.

[cj]

Zenyatta gets a 102. I'm at least a little skeptical to think Dance to My Tune suddenly ran 8 points faster than ever before in start #28 at the age of 6.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Zenyatta gets a 102.

CJ,

I can understand the Zen Beyer (seems a tad high though), but what are your thoughts on RA's Beyer? What did you have as variants for the other route races at FG yesterday? I thought the track was playing 7 or 8 pts faster than the RA Beyer reflects, but I don't have enough experiece to take any stand on it really. Were your figs similar to the Beyers for RA and Zen?

[cj]

CJ,

I can understand the Zen Beyer (seems a tad high though), but what are your thoughts on RA's Beyer? What did you have as variants for the other route races at FG yesterday? I thought the track was playing 7 or 8 pts faster than the RA Beyer reflects, but I don't have enough experiece to take any stand on it really. Were your figs similar to the Beyers for RA and Zen?

I do the speed part of the figures two days after, so I'll know more tomorrow. Since the raw figure production is automated, I like to give the charts an extra day to get any corrections that come out after the initial posting.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I do the speed part of the figures two days after, so I'll know more tomorrow. Since the raw figure production is automated, I like to give the charts an extra day to get any corrections that come out after the initial posting.

Cool - I look forward to your work. I think RA's Beyer reads a lot into race 6 and dismisses race 1 too much (even though it looks like the track might have played a touch slower later in the day).

[JeremyJet]

Zenyatta gets a 102. I'm at least a little skeptical to think Dance to My Tune suddenly ran 8 points faster than ever before in start #28 at the age of 6.

If they stick with that 102, every horse who ran behind ZENYATTA ran a new Beyer top. :eek:

[statik27]

Z's race yesterday is a perfect example of why you look at how the figure was earned.

Exactly! This why I spend hours watching tape. You have to SEE a horse earn the number, otherwise its just a number.

[Bluesthestandard]

I predicted right after RA 's race on thread yesterday here that the owners would chicken out after that race. All you had to do watch how she returned to being unsaddled. As for Z, Z did enough to win the race and that's ALL that she had to do without exerting any extra energy( DRF "lightly roused", "inhaled leader", "in hand"). I don't care about Beyer #'s, never have, never will. Hand ridden to the finish weaving in and out of a few horses. Just another day in the park for Z.

[delayjf]

I'm at least a little skeptical to think Dance to My Tune suddenly ran 8 points faster than ever before in start #28 at the age of 6.

Perhaps she got brave on the lead. Looking at her PP's looks like this race was the first time she'd ever run to the front.

[tzipi]

I predicted right after RA 's race on thread yesterday here that the owners would chicken out after that race. All you had to do watch how she returned to being unsaddled. As for Z, Z did enough to win the race and that's ALL that she had to do without exerting any extra energy( DRF "lightly roused", "inhaled leader", "in hand"). I don't care about Beyer #'s, never have, never will. Hand ridden to the finish weaving in and out of a few horses. Just another day in the park for Z.

Blues if you owned RA and Steve told you ok this is a bit rushed we might need a couple works and one more race to get her in top form from the 6 month layoff. You would say, "NO we are going to AB and we'll push this horse so I don't look like a chicken. The season ends early April!" Cmon Blues that's just kind of horible. No one seems to care about the horses health and form but a early April race?? Kind of really bad.

Have you called all time great horses in the past that took their time after bad comebacks and skipped top races to get back into shape, "chickens"? They are horses, not machines. Blues, Zen races in her backyard on synthetics(closing surface) every race. She's gotta go on dirt this year. Can she win, yes she's Zenny but it's not going to be the same closing surface race after race.

[PaceAdvantage]

Funny thing is, they cared about Rachel's health last year when some on here feared for her very life when Jackson announced he was running her in the Preakness.

My, how things change...

[classhandicapper]

If they stick with that 102, every horse who ran behind ZENYATTA ran a new Beyer top. :eek:

It seems a little fast to me too, but synthetic figures tend to be depressed by slower average paces (relative to dirt). If CJ is correct that the pace of that race was fast relative to the final time (stated in another thread), then maybe they got carried to faster time. It would depend on how the track was playing. Speed held up OK in the route races. Not sure if any of that makes sense, but I think the interaction between pace and final time can get tricky.

I also think Beyer had the track changing speeds during the day, but I haven't verified that .

[Steve R]

2 points

1) Beyers on poly aren't worth much.
2) Anyone who thinks RA ran a better race than Z today is smoking some top shelf stuff and they should share.
Well, you should contact BRIS and ask them to send your stash over right away. They assigned the Santa Margarita a 96 and the N.O. Ladies a 103. That's about a six-length differential and would put the filly at a 102.

[46zilzal]

To compare final time between these two is irrelevant. One makes the pace and the other reacts to it.

Looking at the pace of race either overcame would be a far better comparison and I for one., don't think Zenyatta has seen as fast a pace as RA for the simple fact that beating a stone cold closer is all about setting a slow early pace.

[johnhannibalsmith]

...Looking at the pace of race either overcame would be a far better comparison and I for one., don't think Zenyatta has seen as fast a pace as RA for the simple fact that beating a stone cold closer is all about setting a slow early pace.

huh?

[46zilzal]

huh?
The test of every horse, every race is the pace they either set or overcome.

Horses well within their ability do not have to push much to get home first
Horses pressed to the max often expose their upper limits of overcoming a pace

SInce Zenyatta has never seen another horse's butt at the line, we do not know what that threshold of pace she cannot overcome actually is.

[johnhannibalsmith]

The test of every horse, every race is the pace they either set or overcome.

Horses well within their ability do not have to push much to get home first
Horses pressed to the max often expose their upper limits of overcoming a pace

SInce Zenyatta has never seen another horse's butt at the line, we do not know what that threshold of pace she cannot overcome actually is.

Thank you for clarifying.

[Stillriledup]

So, at least one speed figure making company is saying Rachel's loss is better than Zenyatta's win?

If you just look at competition, i have to imagine the horse who just ran by Rachel at the end of her race is far superior to the horse that Zenyatta ran by at the end of hers. Rachel ran in the better race, we don't really have any proof that Zardana would have also beaten Zen to the wire. In fact, there's kind of a decent amount of proof she would have.

[46zilzal]

So, at least one speed figure making company is saying Rachel's loss is better than Zenyatta's win?


THIS, in a nutshell, is where Beyers fall apart.

NOT HAVING a clue what the pace of race was, they are totally dependent upon final time only......and are in fact nonsense without that consideration

[Stillriledup]

THIS, in a nutshell, is where Beyers fall apart.

NOT HAVING a clue what the pace of race was, they are totally dependent upon final time only......and are in fact nonsense without that consideration

Beyer's mean something. Horses who routinely run 100s are much faster than horses who run 50s. I guess the 63 dollar question is "how much does final time mean"

I think in this case, it means something because there wasn't an unusually fast or slow pace for either race, so, the final time means a decent amount in this case. Does it mean everything? Of course not, there are always other factors.

I think that if Zardana raced tomorrow in a match race vs the horse that Z beat, Zardana would be 1-9 in the betting, she would be viewed as a sure thing and would probably win which means that the horse closest to Rachel at the wire is much better than the horse who was closest to Z at her wire.

It means at least a little something.

[boogazie]

we don't really have any proof that Zardana would have also beaten Zen to the wire. In fact, there's kind of a decent amount of proof she would have.

Huh? What's your "decent amount of proof" that Zardana would have beaten Zenyatta in the Santa Margarita on the synthetics based on her race against RA on the dirt. :D

[Horseplayersbet.com]

I'd like to know what the probabilities are that two sound fit Grade 1 horses today are sound and fit enough to run against each other 2 months from today, 4 months from today, and 6 months from today.

I think as time goes on, the odds decrease a lot. Even 2 months from now, the probability that one sound fit horse today can run is probably around 75% or even less. So the chances that both can is around 50%.

Take the Derby, how many real contender pointing towards it, will actually be in the Derby a month and a half from now?

[PaceAdvantage]

Huh? What's your "decent amount of proof" that Zardana would have beaten Zenyatta in the Santa Margarita on the synthetics based on her race against RA on the dirt. :DThere's no question Zenyatta would have smoked Zardana on synthetics. But we're talking about dirt now...a whole different ballgame.

The AB could prove just as unnerving to Zenyatta fans as last weekends prep race in Louisiana...Zenyatta is very vulnerable in my opinion...starting with the fact she hasn't raced or trained over dirt in TWO YEARS....that counts for something, does it not?

Who knows what type of "conditioning" is ingrained in her from running exclusively over synthetics all this time.

Her AB win two years ago came in her fourth lifetime start...she wasn't as "ingrained" in synthetics as she is now.

If Zardana goes in the AB, Zenyatta is going to have a race on her hands I believe.

If Zenyatta smokes Zardana at Oaklawn, I'll be the first to stand up and declare Zenyatta an all-time bonafide legend after win #16.

All I ask for is that my high level of expectation be satisfied...:lol:

I so wish Jess Jackson would have taken a little more time before making his decision to skip the AB....

[ghostyapper]

It means at least a little something.

Even after last year's breeders cup people are still using who zenyatta beats and her margins of victory to judge her against others??? God I love this sport :D

[ghostyapper]

If Zenyatta smokes Zardana at Oaklawn, I'll be the first to stand up and declare Zenyatta an all-time bonafide legend after win #16.

You're so full of it. Zenyatta smoked the defending DIRT and breeders cup champion in this very race 2 years ago but you need to see her smoke a horse who's won 1 race of significance before you can call her an all time great? Yea yea we know the 7 time G1 winner was "overrated and the worst champion ever"
The real judgement should come against the proven and ultra consistent. zardana. What logic

No doubt if Zenyatta beats her, you and all the rachel cronies will be on here saying how beating rachel took everything out of zardana and will once again short change the girl who's never lost

[Show Me the Wire]

.

I so wish Jess Jackson would have taken a little more time before making his decision to skip the AB....

Without a doubt, most everyone wishes what you said. I would have hoped he would have waited till her next work.

[Stillriledup]

Huh? What's your "decent amount of proof" that Zardana would have beaten Zenyatta in the Santa Margarita on the synthetics based on her race against RA on the dirt. :D

The proof is that Zardana is far superior to the horse who was 2nd to Z. If you think that the horse who finished 2nd to Zenyatta is as good as Zardana, than you won't agree with anything i said.

[Stillriledup]

Even after last year's breeders cup people are still using who zenyatta beats and her margins of victory to judge her against others??? God I love this sport :D

Um, yeah. Who you beat is sort of important.

[ghostyapper]

I so wish Jess Jackson would have taken a little more time before making his decision to skip the AB....

Oh how convenient. Looks like you are free to play trainer whenever you chose but are the first to call someone else out when they question a trainer's move.

Face it her connections new she wasn't up for the task, same with the belmont, same with the travers, same with the jcgc, same with the bc. Why delay?

[ghostyapper]

Um, yeah. Who you beat is sort of important.

Yup. I mean how could a mare possibly compete against the boys when she's barely beating those terrible group of girls out west.....Oops

[Stillriledup]

Yup. I mean how could a mare possibly compete against the boys when she's barely beating those terrible group of girls out west.....Oops

She ran amazing and beat the boys, no one can take that away from her. Im talking about her most recent race, she beat some horse who hit the board ONCE in 2 years.

[breezing]

The AB could prove just as unnerving to Zenyatta fans as last weekends prep race in Louisiana...Zenyatta is very vulnerable in my opinion...starting with the face she hasn't raced or trained over dirt in TWO YEARS....that counts for something, does it not?

are you 100% certain she hasn't trained on dirt in two years? isn't HPs small training track dirt?

[cj]

She ran amazing and beat the boys, no one can take that away from her. Im talking about her most recent race, she beat some horse who hit the board ONCE in 2 years.

A horse who hadn't run on dirt in forever, except her win at Hollywood Park which is very close to dirt now. She also has never lost on real dirt.

[PaceAdvantage]

You're so full of it.Such anger... :lol:

[ghostyapper]

She ran amazing and beat the boys, no one can take that away from her. Im talking about her most recent race, she beat some horse who hit the board ONCE in 2 years.

If that is all you took away from that race then I am speechless. She was behind a wall of horses and had to go inside. Once she got room and her target she went past the leader as she pleased in hand. She has shown time and time again that she does whatever she needs to win the race.

Last year her performances leading up to the bc may not have lit up the sheets but then she went on to easily beat the best field of the year. If you want to fall into that same trap again this year be my guest.