View Full Version : Synthetic horses look OK at Oaklawn?
horses4courses
03-13-2010, 06:53 PM
Wow.....those horses coming off synthetic looked pretty good at OP!!!
bisket
03-13-2010, 08:30 PM
horses that run on polytrack can't win on dirt...... my wallet says that aint so :jump:
Dahoss9698
03-13-2010, 09:36 PM
horses that run on polytrack can't win on dirt...... my wallet says that aint so :jump:
You're my favorite redboarder Bisket.
Horses who race mostly on the synthetic seem to be fitter and sounder. My opinion anyway. It will be interesting again to see how many dirt horses get injured in the last month before the Derby. Last year was pretty horrendous.
46zilzal
03-14-2010, 02:06 PM
Wow.....those horses coming off synthetic looked pretty good at OP!!!
Don't let a few stakes winners skew your understanding as many from Woodbine have bombed there.
Horses who race mostly on the synthetic seem to be fitter and sounder. My opinion anyway. It will be interesting again to see how many dirt horses get injured in the last month before the Derby. Last year was pretty horrendous.
http://www.drf.com/news/article/111444.html
Are you going to continue this foolishness? Should we post every injury on every surface until the Derby?
Dahoss9698
03-14-2010, 04:28 PM
http://www.drf.com/news/article/111444.html
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown09/news/story?id=4044232
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/usa-triple-crown-hope-take-control-sidelined-by-injury/673763/
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown09/news/story?id=4044232
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/usa-triple-crown-hope-take-control-sidelined-by-injury/673763/
Yes, one won a maiden, the other G3. Those two were champions in the making.
Say, whatever happened to War Pass and I Want Revenge? How's Winslow Homer doing? Maybe he'll take the Quality Road path.
Dahoss9698
03-14-2010, 05:03 PM
Yes, one won a maiden, the other G3. Those two were champions in the making.
Say, whatever happened to War Pass and I Want Revenge? How's Winslow Homer doing? Maybe he'll take the Quality Road path.
The Pamplemousse was a pretty highly regarded 3 year old before he was hurt. As was Take Control.
The point isn't that they were champions. The point is horses get hurt on all surfaces. But, you know that.
Charlie D
03-14-2010, 05:05 PM
GM10 likes to only tell us about Dirt injuriies Dahoss.
Charlie D
03-14-2010, 05:11 PM
BTW Gm10
How is Tihitian Warrior after his turf debut?? There are no entries for him on Goldophin website
BTW Gm10
How is Tihitian Warrior after his turf debut?? There are no entries for him on Goldophin website
They are taking their time with their quality colt...errr...gelding.
Charlie D
03-14-2010, 05:58 PM
They are taking their time with their quality colt...errr...gelding.
Hope he's not injured and he's just waiting for a plane back to States to race on Dirt;)
Hope he's not injured and he's just waiting for a plane back to States to race on Dirt;)
Or, they are busy trying to grow him a set.
Charlie D
03-14-2010, 06:03 PM
Or, they are busy trying to grow him a set.
It's amazing what they can do nowadays :D
Charlie D
03-14-2010, 08:11 PM
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/dubai-festival-eagle-mountain-retired-after-latest-injury/689511/dubaicarnival/
EAGLE MOUNTAIN, the 2008 Hong Kong Cup (http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=472031&r_date=2008-12-14&popup=yes) winner who was campaigned around the world by trainer Mike De Kock, has been retired after his latest injury setback.
The Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al-Maktoum-owned six year-old will be retired to stud after injuring a tendon in training. His final run saw him finish second at Meydan (http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=499937&r_date=2010-02-19&popup=yes) last month.
Poor guy, saw him run in Ireland in Soldier of Fortune's Derby. If only they could have kept him on a safe surface.
horses4courses
03-14-2010, 11:28 PM
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/dubai-festival-eagle-mountain-retired-after-latest-injury/689511/dubaicarnival/
Horse ran huge at SA in Conduit's first BC Turf win.
Ran too well to lose that day......
BTW Gm10
How is Tihitian Warrior after his turf debut?? There are no entries for him on Goldophin website
Not sure - I will let you know if I hear anything.
GM10 likes to only tell us about Dirt injuriies Dahoss.
I was just watching a documentary on Horse Chestnut. Legend in South Africa (turf), sent to Gulfstream, had one race there and then got injured during training for the Donn Handicap and never raced again. What is it with that track??
Poor guy, saw him run in Ireland in Soldier of Fortune's Derby. If only they could have kept him on a safe surface.
He's a 6 year old. Please get back to me when one of your dirt champions makes it that far.
Charlie D
03-15-2010, 07:08 PM
Horses are flesh and bone and being so, they are not immune to injury on turf, on synthetic, on Dirt.
It is very easy for some to blame a surface for these injuries gm10, when other factors which are harder to identify may be a major influence( like the running of unsound horses and poor trainer and vet care and of course the influence of $$$$$$$$)
Charlie D
03-15-2010, 07:16 PM
He's a 6 year old. Please get back to me when one of your dirt champions makes it that far.
A silly statement
It is unusaul for any Champion, be he turf or Dirt Champion to be running beyond 4 years of age due to the lure of Stud fees.
A silly statement
It is unusaul for any Champion, be he turf or Dirt Champion to be running beyond 4 years of age due to the lure of Stud fees.
Zenyatta is 6 too. To me it seems that turf and poly horses have longer careers than dirt horses.
Charlie D
03-15-2010, 07:49 PM
Zenyatta is 6 too. To me it seems that turf and poly horses have longer careers than dirt horses.
Funny you mention Zenyatta, won Apple Blossom on Dirt (go watch it, it's as impressive as her Classic win) that orrible Dirt surface did her no harm did it.
I was just watching a documentary on Horse Chestnut. Legend in South Africa (turf), sent to Gulfstream, had one race there and then got injured during training for the Donn Handicap and never raced again. What is it with that track??
What is is with YOU?
If you dislike our racing so much, why do you hang out here?
I'm sure there must be much better forums over there, focused only only on the superior grass racing? Maybe could all put your heads together and come up with some facts, based on actual scientific data to back you moronic accusations.
Or do you just get a kick for being a total jerk?
PaceAdvantage
03-16-2010, 03:24 AM
Zenyatta is 6 too. To me it seems that turf and poly horses have longer careers than dirt horses.6-years-old and only 15 starts to her credit...a real iron horse that one...all hail AWS!
Rachel, the dirt horse, made her 15th start in her 4yo debut...interesting...
Funny you mention Zenyatta, won Apple Blossom on Dirt (go watch it, it's as impressive as her Classic win) that orrible Dirt surface did her no harm did it.
yes but she only raced on it once
it is a bit silly perhaps, but do you not agree that turf horses tend to be around longer than dirt horses in general?
Charlie D
03-16-2010, 04:34 AM
yes but she only raced on it once
it is a bit silly perhaps, but do you not agree that turf horses tend to be around longer than dirt horses in general?
Can't give you an answer on that gm10 as i've not looked into it, but i do believe if you look lower down the Class ladder there are a few 5 year olds and above still running around on Dirt.
The good ones however, as stated earlier are mostly shipped off to stud at 3 or 4 years old like Curlin, Invasor etc.
Charlie D
03-16-2010, 04:40 AM
Correctin, Invasor was 5yo when he won Donn and DWC, so there you go, sometimes it does happen.
FenceBored
03-16-2010, 08:17 AM
Zenyatta is 6 too. To me it seems that turf and poly horses have longer careers than dirt horses.
When is Sea the Star's 4 year old debut, again?
cj's dad
03-16-2010, 08:26 AM
yes but she only raced on it once
it is a bit silly perhaps, but do you not agree that turf horses tend to be around longer than dirt horses in general?
Champion dirt horses tend to be more in demand for stud service than turf champs with rare exception; therefore the turfers tend to stay racing longer.
Charlie D
03-16-2010, 08:39 AM
When is Sea the Star's 4 year old debut, again?
Don't forget horses like Zarkava and Holy Roman Emperor, who was shipped off to stud at two because George Washington underperformed in his stud duties after his 3yo campaign had finished at CD.
Ravens Pass, Henrythenavigator gone to pastures new
The list of horses not running as a 4yo is long, the list not running as a 5yo is long too.
What is is with YOU?
If you dislike our racing so much, why do you hang out here?
I'm sure there must be much better forums over there, focused only only on the superior grass racing? Maybe could all put your heads together and come up with some facts, based on actual scientific data to back you moronic accusations.
Or do you just get a kick for being a total jerk?
I have never called grass racing superior. But, and I have often posted numbers to prove this, it is much safer IN GENERAL.
This is not to say that dirt racing can't be safe. Saratoga dirt for example is a perfectly safe surface. But, and you call me a jerk all you like, many more horses die on the dirt than on the turf and that is just not right.
Just did a fun exercise ... comparing the average age of Breeders Cup Classic and Breeders Cup Turf contenders.
2002:
Dirt: 3.58 yrs
Turf: 4.38 yrs
2003:
Dirt: 4 yrs
Turf: 4.33 yrs
2004:
Dirt: 4.46 yrs
Turf: 4.50 yrs
2005:
Dirt: 4.23 yrs
Turf: 4.31 yrs
2006:
Dirt: 4.08 yrs
Turf: 4.82 yrs
2007:
Dirt: 3.44 yrs
Turf: 4.5 yrs
2008:
Dirt: 4 yrs
Turf: 4.82 yrs
2009:
Dirt: 4.08 yrs
Turf: 5 yrs
Seven years of data - on each occasion the average age of the field was higher in the Turf. They last longer on the turf.
FenceBored
03-16-2010, 10:12 AM
Just did a fun exercise ... comparing the average age of Breeders Cup Classic and Breeders Cup Turf contenders.
...
Seven years of data - on each occasion the average age of the field was higher in the Turf. They last longer on the turf.
You're very good at attributing every difference in data to whatever variable you want. I bet if we did the same analysis of the BC Distaff with the Classic we'd find the same thing, that the avg. age of Distaff competitors is higher than that of the Classic. Is that because females are hardier than males?
You're very good at attributing every difference in data to whatever variable you want. I bet if we did the same analysis of the BC Distaff with the Classic we'd find the same thing, that the avg. age of Distaff competitors is higher than that of the Classic. Is that because females are hardier than males?
How would you interpret the results yourself?
Champion dirt horses tend to be more in demand for stud service than turf champs with rare exception; therefore the turfers tend to stay racing longer.
Isn't the above interpretation at least as likely as yours?
You're very good at attributing every difference in data to whatever variable you want. I bet if we did the same analysis of the BC Distaff with the Classic we'd find the same thing, that the avg. age of Distaff competitors is higher than that of the Classic. Is that because females are hardier than males?
your theory is incorrect as it happens
2002 3.63 yrs
2003 3.57 yrs
2004 3.73 yrs
2005 3.77 yrs
2006 4 yrs
2007 3.75 yrs
2008 4.25 yrs
2009 3.88 yrs
How would you interpret the results yourself?
As presented, there is no evidence as to why the results as they are.
And your sample only looks at BC races, not races in general.
I would interpret the results as meaningless as presented.
Spalding No!
03-16-2010, 11:24 AM
Wow.....those horses coming off synthetic looked pretty good at OP!!!
Going back to this, the synthetic horses shipping in from CA for the past 3 years have done very well over Oaklawn's dirt surface, but not necessarily elsewhere later.
Is the Oaklawn main track somehow more "synthetic" like or is the success of west coast horses simply a matter of quality?
2008:
Rebel- Sierra Sunset: injured in race; returned at 4 to win over dirt at NorCal fairs.
Arkansas Derby- Gayego: unplaced in Derby and Preakness; later won in Dubai and Saratoga on dirt. Tres Borrachos (3rd): unplaced Preakness, Travers.
Azeri- Hystericalady: won Molly Pitcher, Delaware, Fleur De Lis.
Apple Blossom- Zenyatta: no subsequent dirt starts to date.
Oaklawn- Tiago: no subsequent dirt starts. Heatseeker: no subsequent dirt starts.
2009:
Arkansas Derby- Papa Clem: unplaced Derby, Preakness, Haskell, 3rd Long Branch.
Oaklawn- Runforthedoe: unplaced Met Mile, Salvator Mile (vanned off).
2010:
Southwest- Conveyance
Azeri- Freedom Star
Rebel- Lookin At Lucky
As presented, there is no evidence as to why the results as they are.
And your sample only looks at BC races, not races in general.
I would interpret the results as meaningless as presented.
By all means do. What would you accept as evidence?
Going back to this, the synthetic horses shipping in from CA for the past 3 years have done very well over Oaklawn's dirt surface, but not necessarily elsewhere later.
Is the Oaklawn main track somehow more "synthetic" like or is the success of west coast horses simply a matter of quality?
2008:
Rebel- Sierra Sunset: injured in race; returned at 4 to win over dirt at NorCal fairs.
Arkansas Derby- Gayego: unplaced in Derby and Preakness; later won in Dubai and Saratoga on dirt. Tres Borrachos (3rd): unplaced Preakness, Travers.
Azeri- Hystericalady: won Molly Pitcher, Delaware, Fleur De Lis.
Apple Blossom- Zenyatta: no subsequent dirt starts to date.
Oaklawn- Tiago: no subsequent dirt starts. Heatseeker: no subsequent dirt starts.
2009:
Arkansas Derby- Papa Clem: unplaced Derby, Preakness, Haskell, 3rd Long Branch.
Oaklawn- Runforthedoe: unplaced Met Mile, Salvator Mile (vanned off).
2010:
Southwest- Conveyance
Azeri- Freedom Star
Rebel- Lookin At Lucky
Didn't Papa Clem win at Santa Anita a few months ago?
By all means do. What would you accept as evidence?
Something that can be proven to be a relationship.
Try this.
I drank gin and tonic and got drunk.
I drank Rye and tonic and got drunk.
I drank whiskey and tonic and got drunk.
I drank vodka and tonic and got drunk.
Does tonic get me drunk?
FenceBored
03-16-2010, 01:06 PM
your theory is incorrect as it happens
2002 3.63 yrs
2003 3.57 yrs
2004 3.73 yrs
2005 3.77 yrs
2006 4 yrs
2007 3.75 yrs
2008 4.25 yrs
2009 3.88 yrs
Hmm, so it is. Let's look at things a little closer
All starters in BC races 1984-2009.
Race 3yo 4yo 5yo 6+yo Total
-------------------------------------------------------
Classic 112 103 61 23 299
Distaff 89 103 39 8 239
-------------------------------------------------------
Turf 74 108 80 34 296
FM Turf 43 49 30 7 129
-------------------------------------------------------
Mile 91 112 91 39 333
Sprint 91 126 67 42 326
Now, in percentages.
Race 3yo 4yo 5yo 6+yo
-----------------------------------------------
Classic 37.46% 34.45% 20.40% 7.69%
Distaff 37.24% 43.10% 16.32% 3.35%
-----------------------------------------------
Turf 25.00% 36.49% 27.03% 11.49%
FM Turf 33.33% 37.98% 23.26% 5.43%
-----------------------------------------------
Mile 27.33% 33.63% 27.33% 11.71%
Sprint 27.91% 38.65% 20.55% 12.88%
The Turf seems to have significantly fewer 3 year olds than the other races. Some of that is probably European 3 year olds than have been run in the Classic instead of the Turf.
Something that can be proven to be a relationship.
Try this.
I drank gin and tonic and got drunk.
I drank Rye and tonic and got drunk.
I drank whiskey and tonic and got drunk.
I drank vodka and tonic and got drunk.
Does tonic get me drunk?
Just tell me what you regard as evidence.
senortout
03-16-2010, 01:19 PM
How would you interpret the results yourself?
Here I go, trying to reason things out again....it would seem to me that the average age of fillies and mares running at top levels would tend to be LESS than their male counterparts, due simply to the fact they can only drop so many foals in a lifetime of profitable breeding careers, whilst the studs can have many offspring, am i right?
senortout
or maybe greed takes over and the studs go to the shed earlier cause of that very same fact...say 40, 50 or more stud fees lost each year if still racing, that plus the inherent possibility of injuries....and on and on
Champion dirt horses tend to be more in demand for stud service than turf champs with rare exception; therefore the turfers tend to stay racing longer.
Isn't the above interpretation at least as likely as yours?
Hmm, so it is. Let's look at things a little closer
All starters in BC races 1984-2009.
Race 3yo 4yo 5yo 6+yo Total
-------------------------------------------------------
Classic 112 103 61 23 299
Distaff 89 103 39 8 239
-------------------------------------------------------
Turf 74 108 80 34 296
FM Turf 43 49 30 7 129
-------------------------------------------------------
Mile 91 112 91 39 333
Sprint 91 126 67 42 326
Now, in percentages.
Race 3yo 4yo 5yo 6+yo
-----------------------------------------------
Classic 37.46% 34.45% 20.40% 7.69%
Distaff 37.24% 43.10% 16.32% 3.35%
-----------------------------------------------
Turf 25.00% 36.49% 27.03% 11.49%
FM Turf 33.33% 37.98% 23.26% 5.43%
-----------------------------------------------
Mile 27.33% 33.63% 27.33% 11.71%
Sprint 27.91% 38.65% 20.55% 12.88%
The Turf seems to have significantly fewer 3 year olds than the other races. Some of that is probably European 3 year olds than have been run in the Classic instead of the Turf.
I don't think there are enough of those to make a difference. Suppose every 3yo European in the Classic would have run in the Turf if the Classic didn't exist. Suppose there is one of those per year in a field of 10. That changes the average age by 0.1 for Classic/Turf, 0.2 overall. You can see from my earlier data that even given these kind assumptions that 0.20 isn't enough to explain the difference. Except for the near-tie 2005, all Turf would still consist of generally older horses than the Classic.
Here I go, trying to reason things out again....it would seem to me that the average age of fillies and mares running at top levels would tend to be LESS than their male counterparts, due simply to the fact they can only drop so many foals in a lifetime of profitable breeding careers, whilst the studs can have many offspring, am i right?
senortout
or maybe greed takes over and the studs go to the shed earlier cause of that very same fact...say 40, 50 or more stud fees lost each year if still racing, that plus the inherent possibility of injuries....and on and on
I was asking him to explain the difference between Turf/Classic. But I would agree with your logic that top females tend to have shorter careers because their breeding value is larger than any future purse money.
Just tell me what you regard as evidence.
I thought that made as much sense as your data.
You conclusion was that one group lasted longer than the other. They is no evidence at all of that in your data. You have no explained why each and every horse stopped running earlier - you did not qualify that. You assume it was because they did not last as long, but you did not prove it. Maybe it is because dirt horse are more valuable than turf horses and therefore go to stud sooner. I don't know and your data dosen't tell me.
Your sample is too small and general to say much about anything.
FenceBored
03-16-2010, 02:20 PM
I don't think there are enough of those to make a difference. Suppose every 3yo European in the Classic would have run in the Turf if the Classic didn't exist. Suppose there is one of those per year in a field of 10. That changes the average age by 0.1 for Classic/Turf, 0.2 overall. You can see from my earlier data that even given these kind assumptions that 0.20 isn't enough to explain the difference. Except for the near-tie 2005, all Turf would still consist of generally older horses than the Classic.
Really? 112/299 3yo in the Classic. 74/296 3yo in the Turf is not enough? That's a 38 3yo starters difference. Are you going to say that 3yo turf horses just aren't good enough to run in the top races like the BC Turf and the Arc?
castaway01
03-16-2010, 02:22 PM
Isn't the above interpretation at least as likely as yours?
Just to add a non-CJ to this, for top-level horses, stud fees are the answer. When there's a turf Triple Crown race, I imagine the numbers will change. There are numerous other possible answers too, but that's the most logical.
Really? 112/299 3yo in the Classic. 74/296 3yo in the Turf is not enough? That's a 38 3yo starters difference. Are you going to say that 3yo turf horses just aren't good enough to run in the top races like the BC Turf and the Arc?
I don't think you've understood the post.
Spalding No!
03-16-2010, 03:52 PM
Didn't Papa Clem win at Santa Anita a few months ago?
Santa Anita is not have a dirt track used for racing...yet.
FenceBored
03-16-2010, 04:26 PM
I don't think you've understood the post.
Yes, I'm sure that's it.
Or, maybe you're not understanding everyone else.
My figuring puts the average age of the Classic starters 1984-2009 at 3.996 and the average age of Turf starters at 4.297.
Considering the number of 3yo turf horses that have been run in the higher purse Classic over the years, I'd say that the 0.301 years difference is even less significant than you might think.
Spalding No!
03-16-2010, 05:04 PM
Yes, I'm sure that's it.
Or, maybe you're not understanding everyone else.
My figuring puts the average age of the Classic starters 1984-2009 at 3.996 and the average age of Turf starters at 4.297.
Considering the number of 3yo turf horses that have been run in the higher purse Classic over the years, I'd say that the 0.301 years difference is even less significant than you might think.
One source of 3yos absent from the BC Turf that is not being considered is the American-based ones.
Though there are exceptions (eg Prized, Sunshine Forever, Manila), for the most part 3yo turf horses in the US stick to their own division, skipping the BC altogether and aiming at races like the Hollywood Derby at the end of the year. There are no 12f turf stakes restricted to 3yos in this country.
Thus, for the most part, the good US turf 3yos that do go to the BC are the middle distance specialists in the BC Mile (eg Lure, Paradise Creek, Artie Schiller, Star Of Cozzene, Unfinished Symph, Scan, Courageous Cat, Navesink, etc).
Dahoss9698
03-27-2010, 12:18 PM
Horses who race mostly on the synthetic seem to be fitter and sounder. My opinion anyway. It will be interesting again to see how many dirt horses get injured in the last month before the Derby. Last year was pretty horrendous.
Poor Timely Jazz.
Poor Timely Jazz.
Been racing without fatalities for 3 months, where have you been all that time. Hoping this would happen, no doubt.
Yes, I'm sure that's it.
Or, maybe you're not understanding everyone else.
My figuring puts the average age of the Classic starters 1984-2009 at 3.996 and the average age of Turf starters at 4.297.
Considering the number of 3yo turf horses that have been run in the higher purse Classic over the years, I'd say that the 0.301 years difference is even less significant than you might think.
No you did not understand it. You aren't explaining why the average age is older in the turf. You were just repeating that there are more 3yo's in the Classic because of the higher purse. But I gave you 1 starter per year and it still remained that Turf horses are older. What exactly is your argument?
And why do you call 0.31 years insignificant? What confidence level are we talking here? Which statistical test did you use? Or did you use ANOVA?
Dahoss9698
03-27-2010, 01:41 PM
Been racing without fatalities for 3 months, where have you been all that time. Hoping this would happen, no doubt.
How many actual racing dates in those 3 months?
Always entertaining to point out your hypocrisy.
Charlie D
03-27-2010, 02:48 PM
Still no entries for Tahitian Warrior according to Godolphin website.
Hope that turf surface has not ended his career
How many actual racing dates in those 3 months?
Always entertaining to point out your hypocrisy.
What hypocrisy?????
Still no entries for Tahitian Warrior according to Godolphin website.
Hope that turf surface has not ended his career
That's very nice of you to say so - I hope so too.
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