Santa Margarita entries

[FenceBored]

2 Graded stakes winners in 2010.



1 Dance to My Tune Garcia M 111
2 Pretty Katherine Rosario J 111
3 Made for Magic Berrio O A 111
4 Pretty Unusual Sutherland C 113
5 Striking Dancer Solis A 115
6 Powerofvoodoo Kaplan T 108
7 Gripsholm Castle Espinoza V 112
8 Zenyatta Smith M E 127
9 Floating Heart Talamo J 111

[Zenyatta To Crush]

2 Graded stakes winners in 2010.



1 Dance to My Tune Garcia M 111
2 Pretty Katherine Rosario J 111
3 Made for Magic Berrio O A 111
4 Pretty Unusual Sutherland C 113
5 Striking Dancer Solis A 115
6 Powerofvoodoo Kaplan T 108
7 Gripsholm Castle Espinoza V 112
8 Zenyatta Smith M E 127
9 Floating Heart Talamo J 111


The weight assignments are ridiculous to look at. You don't see that kind of separation too often. The funny thing is that Zenyatta might be able to carry 180 lbs and still win.

9 horses? She sure didn't scare anybody away. They better just get out of her way and not screw anything up.

[The Paddock Room]

The weight assignments are ridiculous to look at. You don't see that kind of separation too often. The funny thing is that Zenyatta might be able to carry 180 lbs and still win.

9 horses? She sure didn't scare anybody away. They better just get out of her way and not screw anything up.

I have a feeling a few of these will scratch prior to the race.

It certainly looks to be a great day of live racing at Doc Strub's place!

[Hanover1]

Certainly looks like a yawner to me.

[cj's dad]

I have a feeling a few of these will scratch prior to the race.

It certainly looks to be a great day of live racing at Doc Strub's place!

Who cares about SA ?? running on the rubber - Just hope she gets her big butt to Oaklawn and runs on a real AMERICAN surface.

[redshift1]

I have a feeling a few of these will scratch prior to the race.

It certainly looks to be a great day of live racing at Doc Strub's place!


I agree, some potentially great races despite the habitual complainers.

[Stillriledup]

She's giving 16 lbs away. That's a ton of weight.

[WinterTriangle]

She's giving 16 lbs away. That's a ton of weight.

I did'nt have a chance to look....

how many stakes winners are in the race Rachel is in, and how many pounds is she giving away?

[Kimsus]

This is nothing new for Zenyatta, just like the old Batman shows when Batman was outnumbered 3-1 in a fight with the bad guys....he used to say "the odds are just about right" Zenyatta fans don't use weight as an excuse even though it is a ridiculous spread of 14-16 lbs

[Kimsus]

On the other hand it's also nice to see Rachel get another favorable race scenario of only being saddled with a 2-6 lbs weight spread from her severley overmatched opponents. :rolleyes:

[FenceBored]

This is nothing new for Zenyatta, just like the old Batman shows when Batman was outnumbered 3-1 in a fight with the bad guys....he used to say "the odds are just about right" Zenyatta fans don't use weight as an excuse even though it is a ridiculous spread of 14-16 lbs

On the other hand it's also nice to see Rachel get another favorable race scenario of only being saddled with a 2-6 lbs weight spread from her severley overmatched opponents. :rolleyes:

Are you saying that Zenyatta is in the same league as a mare who finished 3rd in a C32000 last out?

You have a strange way of looking at things.

[OTM Al]

On the other hand it's also nice to see Rachel get another favorable race scenario of only being saddled with a 2-6 lbs weight spread from her severley overmatched opponents. :rolleyes:

One race run under allowance conditions, the other run under handicap. It continually amazes me how many people bet on races without even attempting to understand the conditions of the races. Should be the very first thing you read before looking at a single horse.

[Kimsus]

Are you saying that Zenyatta is in the same league as a mare who finished 3rd in a C32000 last out?

You have a strange way of looking at things.

I'm stating the weight disparency between the 2 preps, it's obvious isn't it? What are you saying the 4 horses Rachel is facing this Sat is going to be a greater challenge? FB you never cease to amaze me...

[Kimsus]

One race run under allowance conditions, the other run under handicap. It continually amazes me how many people bet on races without even attempting to understand the conditions of the races. Should be the very first thing you read before looking at a single horse.

I know that, it's amazing how she always gets the favorable weight, regardless she won't have that in the Apple Blossom. It's even up with Zenyatta, I just hope it happens.

[OTM Al]

I know that, it's amazing how she always gets the favorable weight, regardless she won't have that in the Apple Blossom. It's even up with Zenyatta, I just hope it happens.

What is amazing here? What is favorable? Here is the NO race

FOR FILLIES AND MARES, FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. By
subscription of $200 each. $800 to enter and $1,000 additional to start.
Supplemental nominations of $4,000 will be accepted at time of entry which
shall include all fees. $200,000 Guaranteed of which 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 4% to fourth, 2% to fifth and 1% to sixth through ninth. Weight : 123 lbs. Non-winners of a Grade I stakes at a mile or over since August 13th, 2009 allowed 2 lbs, of a Grade I or II stakes at a mile or over since June 13th, 2009 allowed 4 lbs, $50,000 twice at a mile or over since April 13th, 2009 allowed 6 lbs. Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. This Stake will be limited to 14 starters......

Here is the CA race

A HANDICAP FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. By invitation, with no nomination or starting fees. The winner to receive $150,000, with $50,000 to second, $30,000 to third, $15,000 to fourth and $5,000 to fifth. Invitations and weights to be announced Sunday, March 7.

Looks to me that both are running as top weights in their respective events.

[Kimsus]

What is amazing here? What is favorable? Here is the NO race

FOR FILLIES AND MARES, FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. By
subscription of $200 each. $800 to enter and $1,000 additional to start.
Supplemental nominations of $4,000 will be accepted at time of entry which
shall include all fees. $200,000 Guaranteed of which 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 4% to fourth, 2% to fifth and 1% to sixth through ninth. Weight : 123 lbs. Non-winners of a Grade I stakes at a mile or over since August 13th, 2009 allowed 2 lbs, of a Grade I or II stakes at a mile or over since June 13th, 2009 allowed 4 lbs, $50,000 twice at a mile or over since April 13th, 2009 allowed 6 lbs. Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. This Stake will be limited to 14 starters......

Here is the CA race

A HANDICAP FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. By invitation, with no nomination or starting fees. The winner to receive $150,000, with $50,000 to second, $30,000 to third, $15,000 to fourth and $5,000 to fifth. Invitations and weights to be announced Sunday, March 7.

Looks to me that both are running as top weights in their respective events.

You can't be serious? HOY Wonderhorse Rachel is penalized only 2-6 lbs over 4 overmatched opponents and that is not favorable? Maybe when she has to give 14-16 lbs one day you will understand this concept, please don't reiterate the conditions of both races, that's not the point of discussion as I am quite versed in them. :bang:

[FenceBored]

I did'nt have a chance to look....

how many stakes winners are in the race Rachel is in, and how many pounds is she giving away?


The New Orleans Ladies is run under allowance conditions, Rachel is highweight at 123 with the other 4 between 117-121.

Here's a chart of the two fields of opponents with their stakes wins (graded) and placings in the last 6 months (Sep 13, 2009 - March 13, 2010)


New Orleans Ladies Stakes


Horse # Stk # SP
---------------------------------------------
Fighter Wing 0 1
Zardana 2 (1) 0
Unforgotten 1 2 (1)
Clear Sailing 1 0
=============================================
Total 4 (1) 3 (1)



Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap



Horse # Stk # SP
---------------------------------------------
Dance to My Tune 0 0
Pretty Katherine 0 0
Made for Magic 1 0
Pretty Unusual 1 (1) 1
Striking Dancer 1 (1) 0
Powerofvoodoo 0 0
Gripsholm Castle 0 1
Floating Heart 0 2
=============================================
Total 3 (2) 4

[FenceBored]

I'm stating the weight disparency between the 2 preps, it's obvious isn't it? What are you saying the 4 horses Rachel is facing this Sat is going to be a greater challenge? FB you never cease to amaze me...


What I'm saying is that if you run in a handicap as the BC Classic winner, you're probably going to be giving a bunch of weight. If you think the racing secretary shouldn't give a mare like Powerofvoodoo (with only 1 stakes appearance in her 46 lifetime starts, and last place in that one) a significant weight break ...

[Kimsus]

The New Orleans Ladies is run under allowance conditions, Rachel is highweight at 123 with the other 4 between 117-121.

Here's a chart of the two fields of opponents with their stakes wins (graded) and placings in the last 6 months (Sep 13, 2009 - March 13, 2010)


New Orleans Ladies Stakes


Horse # Stk # SP
---------------------------------------------
Fighter Wing 0 1
Zardana 2 (1) 0
Unforgotten 1 2 (1)
Clear Sailing 1 0
=============================================
Total 4 (1) 3 (1)



Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap



Horse # Stk # SP
---------------------------------------------
Dance to My Tune 0 0
Pretty Katherine 0 0
Made for Magic 1 0
Pretty Unusual 1 (1) 1
Striking Dancer 1 (1) 0
Powerofvoodoo 0 0
Gripsholm Castle 0 1
Floating Heart 0 2
=============================================
Total 3 (2) 4



Nice job, very creative, yep you convinced me that Rachel all of 2-6 lbs disadvantage will be severely challenged this Sat. Well it's a start atleast she's not receiving weight for a change, Ie. weight for age/sex/scale as last year.

[Kimsus]

What I'm saying is that if you run in a handicap as the BC Classic winner, you're probably going to be giving a bunch of weight. If you think the racing secretary shouldn't give a mare like Powerofvoodoo (with only 1 stakes appearance in her 46 lifetime starts, and last place in that one) a significant weight break ...

And 2 lbs is a significant weight break for NA dirt winless Zardana? Yes or no...

[FenceBored]

Nice job, very creative, yep you convinced me that Rachel all of 2-6 lbs disadvantage will be severely challenged this Sat. Well it's a start atleast she's not receiving weight for a change, Ie. weight for age/sex/scale as last year.

I now join OTM Al in saying you don't seem to know the difference between allowance conditions and handicaps. Either that or you've grown too accustomed to these mamby pamby handicaps like the Donn where the top weight is 123 and nobody is below 113.

There was talk of making the Santa Margarita a stakes run under allowance conditions, but they decided against it. I wish they had, to spare us your whining. :faint: I think the weights assigned by Rick Hammerlie are reasonable given the accomplishments of the respective horses. The only one I could question is Zenyatta's. She won under 129 last year and has won 3 more since. While giving her a weight break for coming in off a layoff, I would have thought that the wins (including the BCC) would have loaded a bit more onto her than we're seeing reflected here. But, what the hey, I thought the 128 Curlin carried in the 2008 Stephen Foster (giving away 10-13 lbs.) was too low as well.

[FenceBored]

And 2 lbs is a significant weight break for NA dirt winless Zardana? Yes or no...

No, of course not, but the race isn't a handicap is it? D'uh.

[Kimsus]

No, of course not, but the race isn't a handicap is it? D'uh.

You seem to think this is a discussion of conditions, when the real discussion should be on the weight variances of what Zenyatta and Rachel are carrying over their opposition this weekend. Your obfuscation attempt of the conditions argument doesn't preclude that Rachel has a much more favorable weight spread than Zenyatta, that was the point, that is the point, that is the only point I was making.

[FenceBored]

You seem to think this is a discussion of conditions, when the real discussion should be on the weight variances of what Zenyatta and Rachel are carrying over their opposition this weekend. Your obfuscation attempt of the conditions argument doesn't preclude that Rachel has a much more favorable weight spread than Zenyatta, that was the point, that is the point, that is the only point I was making.


I guess you're just getting your excuses ready, but there's really no need. Zen will prevail, have faith.

[born2ride]

You seem to think this is a discussion of conditions, when the real discussion should be on the weight variances of what Zenyatta and Rachel are carrying over their opposition this weekend. Your obfuscation attempt of the conditions argument doesn't preclude that Rachel has a much more favorable weight spread than Zenyatta, that was the point, that is the point, that is the only point I was making.
You're trying to discuss weights out of context (i.e., once race is run under handicap conditions where all horses are weighted so as to finish at the same time and the other is run under allowance conditions). Yes there is a bigger spread for Zenyatta - but that is because that is the design of handicap conditions when you run a mare like Zenyatta against the kind of opponents she will face.

If you're going to look at weights out of context, look at it this way - Rachel is carrying her highest weight from last year while Zenyatta is 2 lbs under high weight from last year. Does that make you feel better?

[Kimsus]

I guess you're just getting your excuses ready, but there's really no need. Zen will prevail, have faith.

Zenyatta fans won't make excuses, they haven't yet. Yet on the other hand, I can't wait for the multiple charts you will not doubt present us with if HOY fails.

[Kimsus]

You're trying to discuss weights out of context (i.e., once race is run under handicap conditions where all horses are weighted so as to finish at the same time and the other is run under allowance conditions). Yes there is a bigger spread for Zenyatta - but that is because that is the design of handicap conditions when you run a mare like Zenyatta against the kind of opponents she will face.

If you're going to look at weights out of context, look at it this way - Rachel is carrying her highest weight from last year while Zenyatta is 2 lbs under high weight from last year. Does that make you feel better?

How was this taken out of context? Explain pls? I would assume the way Rachel is perceived here, coming that she is HOY and a year older, a weight of advantage of 2-6 overly matched foes is rather a large mismatch given who her 4 competitors are.

[Kimsus]

I guess you're just getting your excuses ready, but there's really no need. Zen will prevail, have faith.

BTW Mr. Obfuscation like it or not Rachel will not have the luxury of any weights breaks come the Apple Blossom against Zenyatta, how nice for Zenyatta to finally not have to carry the grandstand and beat her too. You worried bro? If I were you I would start planning my excuses now.

[FenceBored]

Zenyatta fans won't make excuses, they haven't yet. Yet on the other hand, I can't wait for the multiple charts you will not doubt present us with if HOY fails.

Defensive little thing, aren't you?

I'm on record as saying there's a good chance Rachel loses her prep, because the goal is to get her tuned up, not used up.

Here's a little pick me up for your flagging faith:

lu3VTngm1F0

(I thought of using the limp biskit cover, but this one's campier).

[Kimsus]

Already hedging huh...Be a man, take a stand...Regardless reading your posts a blind man can see where you are leaning, however knowing your MO you will probably play the fence game just to play it safe. :rolleyes:

[born2ride]

How was this taken out of context? Explain pls? I would assume the way Rachel is perceived here, coming that she is HOY and a year older, a weight of advantage of 2-6 overly matched foes is rather a large mismatch given who her 4 competitors are.
The conditions of the races are different. High weight for the NO Ladies is 123 and for the SM it's 127. Both are carrying high weight. Rachel's weight assignment as expected by you has nothing to do with HOY, weights are assigned by the horse's achievements on the track, not in the voting booth.

Granted the weight spread for Rachel is less than for Zenyatta, but Zenyatta is running in a handicap where weights are assigned in a design to have all horses finish at the same time. Rachel is not running in a handicap, she is running under allowance conditions. The weights for each horse in their respective races is per conditions and fair. If Shirreffs doesn't like the weight spread for Zenyatta, then he shouldn't be running her in handicaps.

Your argument is not only out of context as per the race conditions, but it's meaningless.

[born2ride]

You seem to think this is a discussion of conditions, when the real discussion should be on the weight variances of what Zenyatta and Rachel are carrying over their opposition this weekend. Your obfuscation attempt of the conditions argument doesn't preclude that Rachel has a much more favorable weight spread than Zenyatta, that was the point, that is the point, that is the only point I was making.
How can you discuss weights without discussing the conditions? One dictates the other!

Of course Rachel has a more favorable weight spread, she's running under allowance conditions. Zenyatta's is less favorable because she's running in handicap. Since you have an issue with Z's weight spread, take it up with Shirreffs and tell him not to run his mare in handicaps. :D

[Kimsus]

Of course Rachel has a more favorable weight spread, :D

That's all the admission I needed. That was the point, we are fine now. Carry on.

[Dahoss9698]

BTW Mr. Obfuscation like it or not Rachel will not have the luxury of any weights breaks come the Apple Blossom against Zenyatta, how nice for Zenyatta to finally not have to carry the grandstand and beat her too. You worried bro? If I were you I would start planning my excuses now.

After reading this thread, it would be hard for an unbiased person to think it's Rachel fans that are worried. In fact, it's the complete opposite. I just hope you aren't near any bridges when Zenyatta loses a race this year, because it's going to happen. Not this weekend, but it will happen.

[FenceBored]

Already hedging huh...Be a man, take a stand...Regardless reading your posts a blind man can see where you are leaning, however knowing your MO you will probably play the fence game just to play it safe. :rolleyes:


Reality is hedging? How strange. I'll bet both girls on top and collect my whopping 5-10%. :jump: And I like Super Saver over Odysseus in Tampa picking up Dominguez again.

Tri for Santa Margarita: :8:/ :5:,:9: / :4:,:5:,:9:. I'll root for Floating Heart to finish 2nd (better payouts).

Tri in New Orleans: :2:/ :5: / :3: .

[Kimsus]

After reading this thread, it would be hard for an unbiased person to think it's Rachel fans that are worried. In fact, it's the complete opposite. I just hope you aren't near any bridges when Zenyatta loses a race this year, because it's going to happen. Not this weekend, but it will happen.

That's conjecture on your part, given a reasonable amount of entries where there are atleast 5-7 horses entered in the AB and equal weights between Rachel and Zenyatta, I would think it would be the other way around, that the Rachel fans will be the worried ones. She's never had to give weight in any of her races post Oaks...One thing Zenyatta has handled. We will see if this makes a difference to her results. One's done it, the other still has to prove it. I'll take done it over coulda or maybe in the Apple Blossom 9/10.

[Dahoss9698]

That's conjecture on your part, given a reasonable amount of entries where there are atleast 5-7 horses entered in the AB and equal weights between Rachel and Zenyatta, I would think it would be the other way around, that the Rachel fans will be the worried ones. She's never had to give weight in any of her races post Oaks...One thing Zenyatta has handled. We will see if this makes a difference to her results. One's done it, the other still has to prove it. I'll take done it over coulda or maybe in the Apple Blossom 9/10.

What you think and what is reality are two entirely seperate things. At least when it comes to most things Rachel/Zenyatta. The ironic thing about all of this, is Zenyatta was actually getting weight in her lone dirt start. Does that mean she still has to prove she can win on dirt while not getting weight?

See how silly this all gets?

[The Paddock Room]

Who cares about SA ?? running on the rubber - Just hope she gets her big butt to Oaklawn and runs on a real AMERICAN surface.

This coming from someone whose home tracks are the garbage pits of American racing..Pimlico and Laurel?

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!1

:lol: :lol: :lol:

[WinterTriangle]

weights are assigned by the horse's achievements on the track

Interesting.


When handicapping a big stakes normally, I will give a horse who was ITM at high weight more consideration in my betting than one who didn't. I use that for the derby as well.

I didn't know who to wager on for the AP..... but this certainly made it clearer for me.

[Kimsus]

What you think and what is reality are two entirely seperate things. At least when it comes to most things Rachel/Zenyatta. The ironic thing about all of this, is Zenyatta was actually getting weight in her lone dirt start. Does that mean she still has to prove she can win on dirt while not getting weight?

See how silly this all gets?

Equal weights is fair to me, since 1 1/4 would give Zenyatta an unfair advantage to some, the 1 1/8 is a fine start to the rivalry. My only wish is this will be a fairly run race where there is no distinct advantage to either. The only thing we don't know for certain is the field size, smaller the field would give Rachel the advantage in most cases, but if that is what we get, you play the hand you are dealt. If Zenyatta is good enough to overcome it the better history will reflect on her.

[Show Me the Wire]

Interesting.


When handicapping a big stakes normally, I will give a horse who was ITM at high weight more consideration in my betting than one who didn't. I use that for the derby as well.

I didn't know who to wager on for the AP..... but this certainly made it clearer for me.


It is true. Almost every race condition has weight breaks for horses of equal ages, based on the horse winning or losing in a specific time frame, type of race, disrance, etc.

[FenceBored]

Equal weights is fair to me, since 1 1/4 would give Zenyatta an unfair advantage to some, the 1 1/8 is a fine start to the rivalry. My only wish is this will be a fairly run race where there is no distinct advantage to either. The only thing we don't know for certain is the field size, smaller the field would give Rachel the advantage in most cases, but if that is what we get, you play the hand you are dealt. If Zenyatta is good enough to overcome it the better history will reflect on her.

Smaller field benefits Zenyatta, as she'll have less chance of traffic troubles without the need to swing as wide. ;)

[Show Me the Wire]

Smaller fields generally do not benefit deep closers, as the pace can be manipulated to the detriment of the closer. Easier to have a paceless race.

[FenceBored]

Smaller fields generally do not benefit deep closers, as the pace can be manipulated to the detriment of the closer. Easier to have a paceless race.

Zenyatta is immune to pace considerations, so that shouldn't be a concern.

[Show Me the Wire]

Zenyatta is immune to pace considerations, so that shouldn't be a concern.

You are correct. She has proven that.

Forgive me, I was thinking in general terms and forgot about Zenyatta's proven ability. I stand corrected.

[Kimsus]

Zenyatta is immune to pace considerations, so that shouldn't be a concern.

Can I rename you Mr. O as in "Obfuscation". Pace is less important on sythetics to be more accurate. I'm not surprised given your history that you have forgotten to mention this.

By fair I mean where no advantage for 'either', I don't want a 45 half where you can make excuses for Rachel but I wouldn't want an unpressured 48 where she can dictate the race. A 47 would be ideal and then let the best horse win. I know you would rather resort to an Obfuscation of the facts but I think most of us want to see a true race to see where these 2 stand with each other regardless of who wins.

[FenceBored]

Can I rename you Mr. O as in "Obfuscation". Pace is less important on sythetics to be more accurate. I'm not surprised given your history that you have forgotten to mention this.

By fair I mean where no advantage for 'either', I don't want a 45 half where you can make excuses for Rachel but I wouldn't want an unpressured 48 where she can dictate the race. A 47 would be ideal and then let the best horse win. I know you would rather resort to an Obfuscation of the facts but I think most of us want to see a true race to see where these 2 stand with each other regardless of who wins.

I can't even say something nice about Zenyatta?

[Kimsus]

I can't even say something nice about Zenyatta?

Your okay, this is fun for me as I suspect it is for you.

[PaceAdvantage]

Your okay, this is fun for me as I suspect it is for you.It's not fun for me, and I'm the one you should be worried about...

[joanied]

It's not fun for me, and I'm the one you should be worried about...

:lol: :lol: :lol: (sorry, I thought that was hilarious, PA)

[born2ride]

That's all the admission I needed. That was the point, we are fine now. Carry on.
Again, out of context. I need a drink...

[born2ride]

That's conjecture on your part, given a reasonable amount of entries where there are atleast 5-7 horses entered in the AB and equal weights between Rachel and Zenyatta, I would think it would be the other way around, that the Rachel fans will be the worried ones. She's never had to give weight in any of her races post Oaks...One thing Zenyatta has handled. We will see if this makes a difference to her results. One's done it, the other still has to prove it. I'll take done it over coulda or maybe in the Apple Blossom 9/10.
You really think Z carrying weight against allowance horses will translate to her successfully carrying weight against quality opponents? As I recall, Z has yet to do the latter.

[Kimsus]

It's not fun for me, and I'm the one you should be worried about...

What? Kimsus promised to be a good boy and has been. On another note I haven't seen CJ post lately, just PM me if you need some moderation help, however you should know I am very conservative using the edit button. ;)

[Kimsus]

You really think Z carrying weight against allowance horses will translate to her successfully carrying weight against quality opponents? As I recall, Z has yet to do the latter.

It can't hurt can it? First of all in the case of the AB, she will be dropping from 127 to 123, and secondly and more importantly she is not spotting any significant weight to her competitors. If you are betting this race these have to be factors a handicapper would have to take into account before putting their money down.

[FenceBored]

Zenyatta fans won't make excuses, they haven't yet. Yet on the other hand, I can't wait for the multiple charts you will not doubt present us with if HOY fails.

Your wish is my command, sahib (not really, but ...)

First the chart from Rachel's FG Oaks win:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=6&BorP=P&TID=FG&CTRY=USA&DT=03/14/2009&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=6&BorP=P&TID=FG&CTRY=USA&DT=03/14/2009&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB)

Next the chart from Rachel's loss in the NO Ladies:
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/FG031310USA10.pdf


Things to note:

Track condition Sloppy last year; Fast this year
How RA finished: eased final 1/16th last year; stretch duel this year.
Final time (raw): 1:43.55 last year; 1:43.55 this year.
Beyers: 103 last year; 100 this year.
Wind speed/direction: calm (http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNEW/2009/3/14/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA) last year; 11mph W (http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNEW/2010/3/13/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA) (headwind on backstretch) this year.
Either the headwind on the backstretch made a significant impact on Rachel's stamina Saturday, or there's a good chance that her early 3 year old self would have beaten her 4 year old self. If the latter, then no, I don't think that 27 days is enough to get her back to her mid-summer 2009 level, i.e. 100%. And, as I think a reasonable person must agree, beating a RA at or better than mid-summer 2009 level is what Zenyatta supporters should want more than beating a non-tuned up version.

So, enjoy your gloating, as I know you are; you won't get a rise out of me.