March 10th Kentucky Derby List

[WinterTriangle]

I made this list on some new "theoreticals" I'm playing with. I changed my mind about some I didn't like in the past. I realize it won't mesh with the way most handicap the Derby, and some of the horses may not even have or get graded earnings enough to enter, but beyers, graded stakes wins, preps, etc. aren't completed yet so I couldn't grade them on those things:

I. Theoretically could WIN the derby:
Fly Down
Ice Box
Buddy’s Saint
Drosselmeyer
Eskendereya - not my favorite
Laus Deo
Radiohead
Tiz Chrome
Walking the Beach
Soaring Empire
Stay Put

II. Theoretically capable of winning the Derby (BUT have negatives (sire lines with bad history in derby, RAN on bms, turfers, synthers, trainer has no plans for derby, gelding, not enough dosage points or classicity or more speed points than classicity, derby curses, and other weird stuff :D )
Nordic Truce
Pounced
Tahitian Warrior
Vale of York
Worldly
Awesome Act
Bach
D’funnybone
Looking at Luck
Make Music for Me
Nobles Promise
Discreetly Mine
Odysseus

III. Distant possibilities but have more marks against them in one or more categories for me and will have to wait to see if they do anything to change my mind:

American Lion, Connemara, Classical Slew, Concord Point, Caracortado, Colizeo, Dublin, , Get my Fix,Dixie Band,Jackson Bend,Interactif,Maximus Ruler,Make Note,Mission Impazible, Roman Invasion, Rule, Tempted to Tapit, Sidney’s Candy, Lost Aptitude, Setsuko,Super Saver, Aikenite, Kera’s Kitten



There are horses I left out due to not enough information and I just ran out of steam anyway. LOL Let's see how this one does in a month.

[bisket]

heres drf pps for future pool 2 if anyone would like to look at them
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/futures/pps/DerbyPool2.pdf

[tribecaagent]

I made this list on some new "theoreticals" I'm playing with. I changed my mind about some I didn't like in the past. I realize it won't mesh with the way most handicap the Derby, and some of the horses may not even have or get graded earnings enough to enter, but beyers, graded stakes wins, preps, etc. aren't completed yet so I couldn't grade them on those things:

I. Theoretically could WIN the derby:
Fly Down
Ice Box
Buddy’s Saint
Drosselmeyer
Eskendereya - not my favorite
Laus Deo
Radiohead
Tiz Chrome
Walking the Beach
Soaring Empire
Stay Put

II. Theoretically capable of winning the Derby (BUT have negatives (sire lines with bad history in derby, RAN on bms, turfers, synthers, trainer has no plans for derby, gelding, not enough dosage points or classicity or more speed points than classicity, derby curses, and other weird stuff :D )
Nordic Truce
Pounced
Tahitian Warrior
Vale of York
Worldly
Awesome Act
Bach
D’funnybone
Looking at Luck
Make Music for Me
Nobles Promise
Discreetly Mine
Odysseus

III. Distant possibilities but have more marks against them in one or more categories for me and will have to wait to see if they do anything to change my mind:

American Lion, Connemara, Classical Slew, Concord Point, Caracortado, Colizeo, Dublin, , Get my Fix,Dixie Band,Jackson Bend,Interactif,Maximus Ruler,Make Note,Mission Impazible, Roman Invasion, Rule, Tempted to Tapit, Sidney’s Candy, Lost Aptitude, Setsuko,Super Saver, Aikenite, Kera’s Kitten



There are horses I left out due to not enough information and I just ran out of steam anyway. LOL Let's see how this one does in a month.

Very interesting list. I'm curious, what are your "marks against" Dublin?

[KinkyFriedman]

Blind Luck, with a jock who knows what he's doing--unlike the ride she got in the SA Oaks--beats all of them, if only they'd run her.

[WinterTriangle]

Blind Luck, with a jock who knows what he's doing--unlike the ride she got in the SA Oaks--beats all of them, if only they'd run her.

Agree, I would have had her in the top part but since I doubted she'd run it I left her off.

Very interesting list. I'm curious, what are your "marks against" Dublin?

It's purely a theoretical list, can't use last out beyers, prep races, % jockey wins this year, etc. yet.

Believe me, there were horses I liked who I wanted to put in the top part, but my theoretical guidelines wouldn't let me. :D Dublin was lacking in a great number areas, of certain chefs in his 5 generation pedigree, avg distance capabiities of sire and damsire, Dosage profile doesn't fulfill certain formulas like C+2xS+P =>8, and his overall dosage index is only 10---historically significant----Also, 6 points in classicity seems very lacking to me. His dam is a multiple graded staker who won most of her starts.......but mainly sprinting.

Dr. Roman did give him very nice pace parameters for the SW and I did like him for that race based on works and class..... but that was an 8F race. His PFs for that a -37, not earth shattering.

If you are interested to learn more go to reines-de-course, chef-de-race, etc.

Again, it's just a "for fun" list.

'speaking of PFs, Big Brown and such were running -75's and such. That's about right for a TC contender. Not seeing anything close to that this year.......yet. Hopefully some of the upcoming prep races the horese will step up.

[WinterTriangle]

Tribeca,

Now I'm curious.

Give me the rundown on why you think Dublin is a 1-1/4 mile horse. Not 8f, or 1 1/16, but 1-1/4.

I may be missing something. Because Stevie likes him, too, and has him in his list.

[tribecaagent]

WT,

I'm not a believer in dosage. In fact, after watching Smarty Jones (by Elusive Quality out of a Smile mare) nearly get a mile and a half, I'm dubious of bloodlines to determine distance capabilities.

Dublin has a solid two year old foundation. After winning the Hopeful from a far outside post he tailed off for two races. Lukas felt the horse needed epilglotis surgery so the procedure was done. This has helped a number of very talented horses to go on and have productive careers, Alysheba among them.

After watching his Southwest (stumble, wide trip, finished strong,) I'm convinced he can handle a mile and a quarter. It's all a question of development from here. Can he continue to move forward? We'll see.

[WinterTriangle]

I'm not a believer in dosage. In fact, after watching Smarty Jones (by Elusive Quality out of a Smile mare) nearly get a mile and a half, I'm dubious of bloodlines to determine distance capabilities.

Well we must not be on the same page with how we do workups. ;)

Smarty Jones WOULD have been on my Derby list. He fulfilled EVERY theoretical test I based my present Derby list on. :)

The problem is that his some of these who are sired by young stallions who didn't have a proven progeny record at over a mile. So, if you were basing it only on the sire's "racing career", Smarty wouldn't be a contender. Either would Funnycide. (as a matter of fact, most pedigree sites have write ups on the difference between racing type and breeding type, just having sires with classicity doesn't a classic runner make. )

He had the right classicity, good amount of dosage points, his classicity along with his solid and professional added up right, and his Dosage Index and CD hit the sweet spot.

Smarty was running high 60's and -77 PFs in his preps....higher than Big Brown and similar to Birdstone. Avg. is about -75. (Funnycide was running -high 60's and 79's on dirt at 9F). Smarty's pace parameters in the Rebel and the Ark Derby, right before the Ky Derby, were stellar.

There is other stuff, but that'll do for now.

Good luck with Dublin, I like him, esp. for the Rebel. My list is only theoretical, but I still doubt him at longer than 1-1/6

[Robert Fischer]

I tossed Dublin as a nobody early on before they ran the race where he was the favorite in that 2yo stakes finishing like 5th or something.

then you see a lot of trainer speak about breathing surgery and Lukas says he wouldn't trade places with anyone... etc...

then they run the southwest and Dublin was much much the best by a fair margin. He's definitely interesting. If he can simply maintain that gameness as they stretch out he'll be a force. He should show a lot either way in the Rebel.

[WinterTriangle]

BTW, re Smarty Jones, Lauren Stich had him to win, Jeff Seigal had him to win, and Ellen Parker had him to win and wrote her article before the race with his pedigree broke down to show he could get the distance on her Reines site..... and laughed at the nay sayers.

Like I said, based on everything I used theoretically here, Smarty passed with flying colors.......on pedigree handicapping.

[joanied]

Just a toss in here...it's of my opinion, like Winter Triangle, that you really need to pay attention to pedigree and the Dosage numbers...how can you not?

If pedigree and what goes along with it (numbers) doesn't matter, then I ask this...why do broodmare owners spend so much time researching pedigrees? I'll tell you why...bloodlines matter.

[bisket]

in my book the mom counts for more than the dad, and guess what analyzing that way pays better at the window. it works better than the reverse. this is why i believe many people just toss breeding aside. they only look at the dad. thats a mistake.

[WinterTriangle]

in my book the mom counts for more than the dad, and guess what analyzing that way pays better at the window. it works better than the reverse. this is why i believe many people just toss breeding aside. they only look at the dad. thats a mistake.

that is a good observation, bisket.

Ellen Parker and Lauren Stitch are really good at exploring mares that are influential broodmares giving a count of how many show up in a horse's 5-generation pedigree....and the female family numbers, tracing the tail female pedigrees back to certain taproot mares.


You can't use pedigree and dosage shallowly using just the top part. It doesn't work.:) I can find dosage profiles for low claimers at CT who show a perfect dosage as well as classicity.

And of course, in the end, it has to be placed against performance.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I was looking forward to betting Quality Road last year because his dam had been a marathon runner in Australia and I thought he could get the distance.I felt some validation for this when he ran so well at a mile and a quarter last fall and I still contend he would have won on a fast track.

[WinterTriangle]

No changes to March 10th theoretical (pedigree) list until after the weekend.

Don't need to move Rule down because he was already in my lowest category before he ran the FL Derby.:D

Ice Box, my #2 horse on March 10th, won the FL Derby on March 20th. :)

Pedigree matters, and there have been several write-ups by the pedigree folks as to his background since the Fl Derby. Of course, it has to jive with and be combined with performance.

Although I still feel they belong in theoretical, Tahitian Warrior will be removed due to move to Dubai, change of racing surface and distance; Buddy's Saint due to injury. Radiohead was a theoretical, and is indeed, headed to the Derby, but as horses show what they got via track performance, these will be weighed against theoretical chances and moved up or down). Horses I never got around to like Pleasant Prince, A Little Warm, etc. may be added.

I'm a little worried about Eskie at this point. He is hurting in earnings, and if he doesn't take to the AQ surface in the Wood, he may not make it to the derby. they shoulda run him in the FD

[Trotman]

Got to agree Dublin is a toss,couldn't beat a well bred Jersey. Now Ice Box on the other hand is rounding into form for a big run 1st Sat in May.

[WinterTriangle]

Hope to update my list before the Wood, as it's a month old now.

Tempted to Tapit and Discreetly Mine ran according to my grade----2nd/3rd tier--- where I have them in my list.

I expected more from Drosselmeyer. Don't think he's a derby winner, but I might keep him around for exotics.

Other than that, I have to remove Buddy's Saint and some other housekeeping, like adding the automatic derby entry of Endorsement, and a few horses I like that I never got around to adding back in March, like Backtalk.

[theguarantee]

Did you catch Pletcher's comments about Discreetly Mine afterwards? Blamed himself for too strenuous of a work beforehand...making it awful tough to judge DM to me.

[WinterTriangle]

I agree there's still something to like about DM.

I'll leave him in 2nd tier, "possible but a few knocks".

I gotta update the whole theoretical list anyway around the beginning of April, since I planned to do it once a month. Last one will be May 1st. :)

[WinterTriangle]

My March 10th derby list is officially dead. New one up for april. No final ITM hit rate % until after I get back from the Ark Derby and see the Blue Grass and I will tally final then.

considering these were made entirely on pedigree stuff, don't see how anyone can say pedigree can't be used to predict races, since this list, and my December 2009 pedigree list had a 66% ITM rate before any official preps were run. (so far this one is looking like a 79% hit rate also before preps were run).:)

Beginning of march, it was a pretty good predictive list, because it wasn't a top-ten list made a week or two before each prep race weekend.

Many horses who were not identified by the top 10 lists, but identified here did good, if you played Ice Box for instance, or , Laus Deo, Setsuko, Mission Imaz, etc. , :

Fly Down - 10th LA Derby
Ice Box -1st Florida Derby
Buddy’s Saint- off the trail
Drosselmeyer 3rd LA Derby
Eskendereya- 1st in Wood
Laus Deo- 1st Count Fleet Stakes
Radiohead-not ITM
Tiz Chrome has not raced
Walking the Beach- has not raced
Soaring Empire- not ITM
Stay Put- 5th LA Derby

Nordic Truce - 1st allow race
Pounced- has not raced
Tahitian Warrior - conditons race in Dubai, may not come
Vale of York- off trail
Worldly- has not raced
Awesome Act- 3rd in Wood
Bach (2nd Philly claimer 3/16)
D’funnybone (1st Swale)
Looking at Lucky (3rd SA Derby)
Make Music for Me (has not raced)
Nobles Promise(2nd Rebel)
Discreetly Mine- 4th LA Derby
Odysseus- 1st Tampa

American Lion (1st ILL Derby;4th San Felipe), Connemara (3rd Lane's End), Classical Slew (not ITM), Concord Point (has not raced), Caracortado (3rd San Felipe; 4th SA Derby), Colizeo (dud), Dublin(3rd Rebel), Get my Fix (has not raced), Dixie Band (5th Swale),Jackson Bend (2nd Wood),Interactif (2nd San Felipe),Maximus Ruler (has not raced since 2nd in LeComte),Make Note (has not raced), Mission Impazible (1st LA Derby), Roman Invasion (has not raced), Rule(3rd FL Derby), Tempted to Tapit (3rd Sunland), Sidney’s Candy (1st San Felipe, 1st SA Derby), Lost Aptitude (has not raced), Setsuko (2nd SA Derby),Super Saver (3rd Tampa), Aikenite (has not raced), Kera’s Kitten (not IMT)

Pedigree matters. :jump:

[joanied]

Winter T...indeed...pedigree matters and anyone who thinks otherwise isn't taking into acount one of the best 'tools' you can use to handicap.

[WinterTriangle]

pedigree matters and anyone who thinks otherwise isn't taking into acount one of the best 'tools' you can use to handicap.

Early March pedigree list identified Ice Box and Eskendereya in Top 10.

Without the benefit of any PPs, performance on the track, or prep races. (And I daresay, many people will use those 2 as the KY Derby exacta. :) )


My April list isn't done, but now that Uh Oh Bango will get in, I'd move him into my top 10 for my April list. :)

[46zilzal]

Winter T...indeed...pedigree matters and anyone who thinks otherwise isn't taking into acount one of the best 'tools' you can use to handicap.
Yes I heard Lauren Stitch drone on and on about many speed types (she forgets that those are just about the only ones left with no graded stakes platform to find out where stamina comes from) from Smarty Jones onward that were not going to hit the board in the Triple Crown....

THE INDIVIDUAL in front of you trumps some theoretical breeding guess.