What is a "good betting race"?

[Stillriledup]

I saw Tom's Twitter paddock report today and he commented that Marsh Side was a grand looking animal. Then, he added, "this is a great betting race"

My initial thought was "its a terrible betting race, its a total crap shoot, i'm not even close to having anything resembling a long run winning wager"

Some people think that a 'wide open' race is a good betting race, but my definition of a good betting race is a race where i feel i have a reasonable shot to make some money.

The Big Cap today was just a lottery. With 14 horses who seem to be able to run Beyer figs around 100 and no more, means its incredibly wide open.

What's YOUR definition of a 'good betting race'?

[Horseplayersbet.com]

I like cheap nw2 going short with a 9-12 horse field.

[Stillriledup]

I like cheap nw2 going short with a 9-12 horse field.

I like 10 horse fields or less. Anything more than that i feel that some horse who doesnt belong in the race might get in my way.

[JWD]

I like Maiden and Maiden Claimers with a 9-12 field . pref. 9.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

I like 10 horse fields or less. Anything more than that i feel that some horse who doesnt belong in the race might get in my way.
The additional one or two horses can get in your way, but the amount of combo's explode with each additional horse added to a race which means that if the pool size is adequate enough, you opportunity for a big score goes up significantly with larger fields...but I hear you, the more horses, the more troubled trips.

Triactor combos
9 horse field=504
10 horses =720
11 horses =990
12 horses =1320

[CincyHorseplayer]

I saw Tom's Twitter paddock report today and he commented that Marsh Side was a grand looking animal. Then, he added, "this is a great betting race"

My initial thought was "its a terrible betting race, its a total crap shoot, i'm not even close to having anything resembling a long run winning wager"

Some people think that a 'wide open' race is a good betting race, but my definition of a good betting race is a race where i feel i have a reasonable shot to make some money.

The Big Cap today was just a lottery. With 14 horses who seem to be able to run Beyer figs around 100 and no more, means its incredibly wide open.

What's YOUR definition of a 'good betting race'?


I know what you are talking about and I get irritated by that "great betting race" comment as well.If there are 8 horses in a 12 horse field that realistically could win the race,it by no means makes it a GBR.I have seen this a lot at GP the last 2 seasons.

Not liking the favorites in said race would make it so.But in a field where you isolate 3 contenders,has a predictable probable pace,and the horse you like fits the track profile,yet one of the other 2 contenders is a heavy favorite,to me that is the ideal "great betting race".

The potential for bombs in the exotics is greater in highly contentious races and they are worth taking shots at but at a much lower hit %.

[Charlie D]

What is a "good betting race"?


Any race where the methodology your using suggests a Good investment opportunity. These can be anything from 4 horse fields to the 30 runner fields at Royal Ascot, Goodwood, Cheltenham etc.

[PhantomOnTour]

Depends on your style. A full field of 12 with a lukewarm favorite at about 7-2 with 5 or 6 others between 4-1 and 8-1 is a great betting race, but thats just my opinion. I like these fields because I am a TRI player and confused bettors lead to big TRIs....imagine what a 4-1 over 4-1 over 6-1 would pay in a field like this. Many contenders leads to many different contender permutations in TRI tickets and a good chance that any one sequence isnt hammered at the windows.

Also, you've got to love the beatable 3-5 chalk in a 5 horse field. The search for the overlaid winner shouldnt take long.

[eastie]

big field with a bad fave, and price horses that I like = good bettibng race

[Overlay]

To me, a good betting race would be one where the public has gone overboard on a particular horse based on a factor that may be a positive indicator, but not to the extent reflected by the public's wagering, creating overlays on one or more other solid horses in the race.

[bisket]

eastie hit the nail on the head. i thought miremembered was a bad fav, and i too thought this was a good betting race because there was about 4-6 in here with 10-1 or better that had a good chance of getting in the winners circle. i didn't win on this one, but i'll take my chances on a race like this any day. yeah its a little more of a crap shoot, but the exotics in a race like this are a good opportunity to go long in your selections because the reward is there to make it worthwhile.

[WinterTriangle]

A good betting race to me is one where you have to really work at it to find the exotic, and when you do, it's lucrative....one where you have to think about what will actually happen "during" the race between and among the horses. That last race Sea The Stars was in was a good betting race. The Japan Cup was a good betting race.

The American bettor is so used to small fields I think they believe any race with 12 horses in it is a chaos race. :D

A bad betting race is the silly races at AQ where the horses run beyers 1-2-3 (for chalk) like a merrygoround, ho hum.

[Robert Goren]

A good betting race is a race where the horse I like wins with good odds. A bad betting race is a race where the horse I like is at short odds.;)

[Hanover1]

I always felt the TC races were "good bettin races". Quality fields with horses on the improve or close to peak. Derby usually tosses out some radical tris numbers, and favorites usually pay $12.00 and up.

[nearco]

The American bettor is so used to small fields I think they believe any race with 12 horses in it is a chaos race. :D



Why the hate for large fields?
IMO, the best betting races are 30 runner handicaps.

[horses4courses]

I saw Tom's Twitter paddock report today and he commented that Marsh Side was a grand looking animal. Then, he added, "this is a great betting race"

My initial thought was "its a terrible betting race, its a total crap shoot, i'm not even close to having anything resembling a long run winning wager"

Some people think that a 'wide open' race is a good betting race, but my definition of a good betting race is a race where i feel i have a reasonable shot to make some money.

The Big Cap today was just a lottery. With 14 horses who seem to be able to run Beyer figs around 100 and no more, means its incredibly wide open.

What's YOUR definition of a 'good betting race'?

I'm in full agreement with you.
Too many players are scared off of a short-price, because they have an odds
cut-off point. That number (even money, for example) is a red flag for many because, no matter what the chances of winning are, they won't risk their money at such short odds.
Makes little sense to me.
I'll lay 3-5, or 1-2, if I think my chances of winning exceed 80%.
Don't make a habit of it, but it's still a "go" under the right circumstances.
Class is also a factor to me - I'm not going to risk as much (most likely nothing at all) on a cheap claiming race, as opposed to a graded stakes race.

Good luck!

[boomman]

big field with a bad fave, and price horses that I like = good bettibng race

ANY field with a bad fave, but if it happens to be in a big field, that's icing on the cake. Capitalizing on beating false favorites CONSISTENTLY IMHO is the key to beating the game Long Term;)

Boomer

[Ejmenz]

"Depends on your style. A full field of 12 with a lukewarm favorite at about 7-2 with 5 or 6 others between 4-1 and 8-1 is a great betting race, but thats just my opinion".

+1

[Stillriledup]

I'm in full agreement with you.
Too many players are scared off of a short-price, because they have an odds
cut-off point. That number (even money, for example) is a red flag for many because, no matter what the chances of winning are, they won't risk their money at such short odds.
Makes little sense to me.
I'll lay 3-5, or 1-2, if I think my chances of winning exceed 80%.
Don't make a habit of it, but it's still a "go" under the right circumstances.
Class is also a factor to me - I'm not going to risk as much (most likely nothing at all) on a cheap claiming race, as opposed to a graded stakes race.

Good luck!

Its a psychological hurdle many have to overcome. People have no problem betting an NFL game at 9-10 odds because they only have '1 team to beat' but they have a problem betting a horse at 9/10 odds because he's gotta beat a bunch of other runners.