Shooting from the hip, on So Cal racing!

[Stillriledup]

-Brice Blanc "Off" continues to reap windfalls. Saturday's first race saw Initial Impression get a rider change to Victor and won easily at 8-1.

-Jockey Agent Vic Stauffer continues to burn up the track with his jocks Joel Rosario and Martin Garcia. Vic's guys had another banner day. Can we say Forbes 400 for Vic sometime soon? :ThmbUp:

-Show bettors breathed a sigh of relief when Blind Luck rallied furiously late in the stretch to just nail 3rd money, BL had approximately 200k on her to show.

-Congratulations to Santa Anita for being able to run their Big Cap card without a hitch.

-Big congratulations to Alexis Barba, she won two big races with two very nice colts. The Barba stable is humming along.

-Congrats to the bettors who hammered Misremembered down from 5-1 to 4-1 at the quarter pole. Maybe Roger Clemens bet 20k to win?

-No truth to the rumor that Mike Iavarone and David Lanzman will meet in a steel cage match anytime soon. Lanzman was going to wrestle under the nickname "filthy animal' but realized that there have already been the filthy animals in pro wrestling, so he couldnt use the name.

-Martin Garcia winning the big race today invokes some nice memories of Martin Garcia riding up in No Cal with a 5 lb bug and beating Russell Baze for the riding title a bunch of years ago. Aah, those were the days! Garcia has been riding spectacular for the Bob Baffert barn these days, Good luck to Martin Garcia.

-Long time in between 'drinks' for rider Charleen Hunt. She brought in bomber DUBAI You XYZ a few days ago and keyed two 500k winning Pick 6 tickets.

[andymays]

Did you notice when the rain came down how the Jockeys started sending the hell out of their horses. Especially in the last two on the main track. These guys know a little water makes a big difference on synthetic.

I got off Misremembered after betting him the previous time. I didn't take into account that the water on the track would allow him to stay close to a faster than usual pace and keep going.

I sort of got off of Crisp after keying her last time. I still had the tri and super a couple of times but if Gomez wins I had it a bunch of times.

I have to have the world record for horses I bet last time winning next out. But only when I get off them. :bang:

Here are the workout comments for the longthot on Friday. C+ is not hopeless. Having said that I think I've used "all" a couple of times in my life and I would have had to use "all" to have this one given the connections and the Jockey. I normally like playing off the wall Jockeys (I played Tyler Kaplan) but Charleen Hunt was stretch for me on a first time starter from Mark Tsagalakis.


DUBAI YOU X Y Z Feb 26 HOL 4 :49.3H M FT C+
Nursed along late in 24.2, 49.2 looking so-so still for Tsagalakis. Maybe with racing.---Grade: C+


DUBAI YOU X Y Z Feb 19 HOL 5 1:00HG M FT C+
Under pressure with Delago (Dollase) working under some early and late ask in 24.2, 47.3, 100.0. Does try.---Grade: C+

DUBAI YOU X Y Z Feb 8 HOL 6 1:13.2H M FT C+
Asked for very best slowing some near the end in 47.2, 113.2. Maybe will need more work, this was his first 6 furlong move after all.---Grade: C+

[DJofSD]

So, I guess with water on the current SAX AWS, we need something other than "ft" in the PPs?

[andymays]

So, I guess with water on the current SAX AWS, we need something other than "ft" in the PPs?


This is where the notes come in. It makes a difference but I'm too lazy to do it. :bang:

Last meet at Del Mar they had a track maintenance schedule that lists when they water prior to the first race but not when they watered in between races (at least the times I checked). The Jockeys know it helps the speed and will often send a little more than normal. If you didn't keep notes you would never know from the PP's.

[Show Me the Wire]

Misremembered was the proper selection moisture or no moisture. andymays the problem is not the moisture or lack of in the track, it is determining when the horse will be competitive for the win.

[andymays]

Misremembered was the proper selection moisture or no moisture. andymays the problem is not the moisture or lack of in the track, it is determining when the horse will be competitive for the win.


Denying that water on a synthetic surface helps frontrunners is to deny the facts.

[Show Me the Wire]

Heavy rain seems to tighten the track and make it faster. Making the track faster does not necessarily mean the front runners will win, only the final times will be faster. Yesterday's moisture was not significant and prior to the Big cap and the negligible moisture early speed was doing well.

You could have gotten a clue from the earlier 3/4 sprints on how the track was playing.

If you liked Misremembered the previous outing, you should have been all over him yesterday.

Using negligible moisture prior to the race as an excuse is denying the fact the ability to spot when a horse will be competitive for the win is lacking, which is the primary source of the problem.

Btw the winner was not the pace setter (front runner), the front runner folded, so your whole premise is incorrect about the race in question.

[andymays]

Heavy rain seems to tighten the track and make it faster. Making the track faster does not necessarily mean the front runners will win, only the final times will be faster. Yesterday's moisture was not significant and prior to the Big cap and the negligible moisture early speed was doing well.

You could have gotten a clue from the earlier 3/4 sprints on how the track was playing.

If you liked Misremembered the previous outing, you should have been all over him yesterday.

Using negligible moisture prior to the race as an excuse is denying the fact the ability to spot when a horse will be competitive for the win is lacking, which is the primary source of the problem.

Btw the winner was not the pace setter (front runner), the front runner folded, so your whole premise is incorrect about the race in question.


Misrememberd had a perfect trip last time and Jeronimo went right by. Yesterday they went a eight of a mile longer. The only handicapping factor you could say might help Misremembered was a 4lb weight swing. At a mile and a quarter that could make a little difference. The moisture on the surface helped him as well.

I didn not bet Misremembered to win last time but I did single him in all the exotics. Not using him yesterday in a race where I used to others was dumb but it wouldn't have mattered. To say I should have been all over him yesterday I don't see how. To say I should have used him. That would be true.

[Show Me the Wire]

Here are some more facts you can deny about the win, in order to clutch to your moisture excuse.

Baffert stated, "The Hall of Fame trainer switched jockeys and gave different riding instructions for Saturday's $750,000 Santa Anita Handicap."

You can read more at:
http://santaanita.com/press/pressrelease/2010/03/misremembered-garcia-power-victory-gr-i-big-%E2%80%99cap-baffert-winning-breeder

[andymays]

Here are some more facts you can deny about the win, in order to clutch to your moisture excuse.

Baffert stated, "The Hall of Fame trainer switched jockeys and gave different riding instructions for Saturday's $750,000 Santa Anita Handicap."

You can read more at:
http://santaanita.com/press/pressrelease/2010/03/misremembered-garcia-power-victory-gr-i-big-%E2%80%99cap-baffert-winning-breeder


Did you look at the PP's for the race or is this another one of those arguments where we go round and round for nothing?

The race before Misremembered got a perfect trip and he did again yesterday. The time before he sat third and yesterday he sat second. Maybey Garcia did let him "roll" a little more early. At this stage I think Garcia is better than Espinoza.

Once again the moisture in the track may not be the only reason he won but it helped. Without the moisture the second place horse would have went by him.

[Show Me the Wire]

Did you look at the PP's for the race or is this another one of those arguments where we go round and round for nothing?

The race before Misremembered got a perfect trip and he did again yesterday. The time before he sat third and yesterday he sat second. Maybey Garcia did let him "roll" a little more early. At this stage I think Garcia is better than Espinoza.

Once again the moisture in the track may not be the only reason he won but it helped. Without the moisture the second place horse would have went by him.

Read this thread and it will answer your question about whether or not I read the pp's.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=67423&page=1&pp=15

BTW the reason we go round and round is your penchant for moving the target. First the target was front runners win due to the moisture. Well the front runner folded as usual, so you moved the target to the winner, who was not the front runner, hung on due to the moisture.

Well I am moving the target back where it belongs to your ability assessing the well intentioned horses.

[andymays]

Read this thread and it will answer your question about whether or not I read the pp's.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=67423&page=1&pp=15

BTW the reason we go round and round is your penchant for moving the target. First the target was front runners win due to the moisture. Well the front runner folded as usual, so you moved the target to the winner, who was not the front runner, hung on due to the moisture.

Well I am moving the target back where it belongs to your ability assessing the well intentioned horses.


Would you call Misremembered a deep closer? He ran on or near the pace. That is what I mean when I say a track favored frontrunners. Do you think the surface was a typical Santa Anita Pro Ride day?

In the last race some of the cheapest horses on the grounds ran in sub 1:09 for six furlongs. Did the moisture have anything to do with that?

[Show Me the Wire]

Would you call Misremembered a deep closer? He ran on or near the pace. That is what I mean when I say a track favored frontrunners. Do you think the surface was a typical Santa Anita Pro Ride day?

In the last race some of the cheapest horses on the grounds ran in sub 1:09 for six furlongs. Did the moisture have anything to do with that?

In the last race the winner was not the pace setter either. Although, it may fall in line with exactly what I posted earlier, about moisture making the track tighter and possible faster final times. Faster final times do not equate to front runners winning.

How do you explain the early 3/4 races' results without moisture in the track?

3 lengths off the pace is not, by any definiton, on the pace.

Keep on moving the target.

[andymays]

How do you explain the early 3/4 races' results without moisture in the track?

3 lengths off the pace is not, by any definiton, on the pace.

Keep on moving the target.


What are you talking about?

The first was Maiden Special Weight in 1:10

The second was a Starter Allowance in 1:10

What target am I moving. Did it rain early in the day or late in the day? Maybe I was dreaming. ;)

Since were talking about moving the target if you remember my original assertion was that the rain helped make the surface more kind to frontrunners near the end of day. Yes or No?

[Show Me the Wire]

What are you talking about?

The first was Maiden Special Weight in 1:10

The second was a Starter Allowance in 1:10

What target am I moving. Did it rain early in the day or late in the day? Maybe I was dreaming. ;)


The early speed held on earlier in the day. The horse the pace setter generally won the race.

Your argument that moisture played a part in Misremebered's win is flawed due to the early speed's performance prior to moisture in the track and its performance in the last race..

The times may have been slower pre-moisture, but early speed performed well, while in the last race the time was faster and early speed perfromed poorly.

You have it all backwards. The answer to your question is "NO'.

[toussaud]

if you follow santa anita like i do, daily, you will notice a pattern that after it rains, the track speeds up and speed carries. really, really carries. it's been doing it all year long.


these are the benefits of honing in on one track instead of taking a shotgun approach to betting.


just watch today. it's going to be speed city

[andymays]

if you follow santa anita like i do, daily, you will notice a pattern that after it rains, the track speeds up and speed carries. really, really carries. it's been doing it all year long.


these are the benefits of honing in on one track instead of taking a shotgun approach to betting.


Thanks for bringing some sanity to the debate.

Let's make this like a game of tag and you can take over now. :D

Good Luck! :ThmbUp:

[Show Me the Wire]

Go ahead andymays ignore the fact the pace setters carried their speed prior to any moisture on the track and in the last race with moisture in the track, the pace setter lost to a horse sitting 5th at the 1/2 and 4th at the 1/4.

I reallly like to hear your explanation about the carrying of early speed prior to moisture being absorbed into the track.

[toussaud]

with that in mind, I would not look that down on blind luck's performance.. and it shows just how hopeless the front runners in the sham really are. I took a flyer on el mirage king just because I knew hew ould be close to the lead.

also to show the track bias.. cozy rosie is a stone cold late closer and mike had her about 3-4 back to be closer to the lead. she did not like it buit he knew he had no chance in hell trying to make a late move. i would keep her in mind as well

[toussaud]

wow look at the first race, horse goes around the entire track without the whip being used one time and drew off. i'm so shocked lol

[Show Me the Wire]

with that in mind, I would not look that down on blind luck's performance.. and it shows just how hopeless the front runners in the sham really are. I took a flyer on el mirage king just because I knew hew ould be close to the lead.

also to show the track bias.. cozy rosie is a stone cold late closer and mike had her about 3-4 back to be closer to the lead. she did not like it buit he knew he had no chance in hell trying to make a late move. i would keep her in mind as well

I agree :ThmbUp:

[Stillriledup]

wow look at the first race, horse goes around the entire track without the whip being used one time and drew off. i'm so shocked lol

That horse is a grade 1 type star. When a grade 1 talent type horse gets in a modest allowance field, he can just jog around the track and make it look like a workout.