Pedigree Handicapping

[Hardspun]

What do you guys and girls look for when you look at the pedigree of a horse. For example what in the dame do you look for, and how far back do you go in the bloodlines to find stuff. Also which side of the line plays the biggests parts on class,surface and distances. Thanks Adam

[thaskalos]

What do you guys and girls look for when you look at the pedigree of a horse. For example what in the dame do you look for, and how far back do you go in the bloodlines to find stuff. Also which side of the line plays the biggests parts on class,surface and distances. Thanks Adam About 15 years ago, I shared a table at an OTB with the late Dave Feldman, long time owner, trainer and newspaper columnist-handicapper in the Chicago area. People would recognize him and come over to our table to say hello. Some people would give him picks for upcoming races. One customer sat next to Dave, and, in a very matter-of-fact voice, told him that in the upcoming feature race at Arlington Park, which was on the grass, a particular horse couldn't lose because his father was one of the best grass runners in the country. "My father was a tailor", Dave Feldman told him, "and I can't sew a button."

[cj]

Can nobody answer a simple question any longer? Once again, the question was what DO you look for in pedigree.

[WinterTriangle]

I would say it depends--------- on what YOU want to look for, and how deeply you're willing to look. And that depends on how much you enjoy doing it.

Do you want to know all about the double-copy mares, where they are, how many Reines de Course dams are in a pedigree, the stamina chefs in the female line, transcendent mares and BP conduits and the exact balance of speed and stamina in a horse. Who passes on large heart, or if there is rasmussen factor in the outreaches of the pedigree. Do you want to really KNOW the family, i.e, if the 4th dam and the 3rd dam's sire are related, and exactly how?

Most people don't want to know, or even read, that much. :)

I guess for the novice, like me: how the broomare sire and sire does on distance, surface, % wins and ITM, mudders in slop. How many stakes winners have been produced by the nick/combination, how have the other offspring from the same nick done on different tracks. However, I feel quite hamstrung by such a "shallow" look into a family.

Super-shallow: you could just get a sire list for the track you're playing. It would probably boost your success by about....5%?


Does it work? The deep stuff that I mentioned first........I can tell you that my friend I brag on who is deeply into this stuff successfully handicaps those maiden races (even the unraced maidens) that everyone says are "impossible" and hits big with them. (And had Mine That Bird last year). I watched him hit some pick 3's today that were with longshots, so I'm a believer in what he does. I don't know that I would be willing to get into things as deeply as he is.:eek: I can only say it works, esp. for TC races and BC races and maidens. But you have to have a passion for doing the research.

[JustRalph]

Several Software apps give pedigree ratings based on the data provider the program uses........

This might be a jumping off point for you........some of them are pretty good. Some not so much............

I let the software tell me ........... unless it's some big name pedigree that I recognize off the top of my head

[thaskalos]

Can nobody answer a simple question any longer? Once again, the question was what DO you look for in pedigree. I'm sorry, I don't usually stray off topic...I promise I won't do it again. I used to think that pedigree counted most on the turf, but, now that the Tomilson ratings are readily available, I have changed my mind. Too many good grass horse have very low ratings, and many high ratings don't transfer well on the grass. I now use the Tomilson ratings for distance limitations only. With all the races that are available to us now, I don't think a player should spend too much time in races where pedigree figures to play a big role.

[maiom01]

Not much of a response so far. Juanepstein and cmoore used to talk a lot about pedigree in there pick threads. I saw them post many winners in those threads based mostly on sires. I haven't seen either of them post here in awhile.

[WinterTriangle]

Not much of a response so far. Juanepstein and cmoore used to talk a lot about pedigree in there pick threads. I saw them post many winners in those threads based mostly on sires. I haven't seen either of them post here in awhile.

The TLG contest thing that blew up---seems we lost them after that. Juanepstein knew his pedigrees and he knew them globally. He is great at hitting those long odds aussie races!

[Java Gold@TFT]

First, I hope Steve R will respond to your question soon.

Second I usually use the breeding aspect most when a horse is trying to do something new - whether it's a 2yo MSW, first time turf, first time off track or going long for the first time. I really feel that it is a bit of an artform to handicap based on pedigrees and despite the numbers available I inevitably fall back on the "feel" I have for certain bloodlines. For instance I have had good success following Fappiano lines when the track comes up muddy and love Ribot lines on the dam side when a horse is going two turns for the first time. It doesn't become the sole handicapping factor but it can throw out some horses for me. Another for instance - My home track is Saratoga and I see a lot of very regally bred and high priced babies during August. Weird oddity is that A.P. Indy has never sired a maiden winner at 6F or less. Obviously he is one of the most influential distance sires around right now but you would think that with all of the 5.5F races over the years that he would sire something to go short at first asking.

I am horrible at keeping notes but I do usually make notes when a horse runs particularly well with surface or distance changes. I usually don't go past the 2nd dam when I investigate. Most of the sire lines are fairly well known so I put more emphasis on the dam side when looking to separate a few contenders.

Not sure that helps at all but like WT pointed out there are all sorts of numbers available but even the million dollar babies don't pan out and I'm sure their bloodlines were researched far better than I could do.

[46zilzal]

All of the nicks one hears about are based upon the wrong thing:Phenotype

[cj]

The TLG contest thing that blew up---seems we lost them after that. Juanepstein knew his pedigrees and he knew them globally. He is great at hitting those long odds aussie races!

The contest had nothing to do with Juanepstein. Also, CMoore's pedigree stuff was pretty exposed and he was pissed when it was pointed out.

[lamboguy]

sometimes the performance of the second dam gives you an indication if the horse has any speed at all. another thing you can look for is the history of the broodmare to see if she throws filly winners or colt winners. they often do repeat.

pedigree takes a big backstep to proper training, maybe about 3 miles behind.

[Foolish Pleasure]

The better question is what exact physical characteristics makes a great turf horse vs a dirt horse. Any sophomore can tell the differences between a potentially great sprinter and potentially great router based on the animal's stature-so why is the turf vs dirt not so easy?

I submit that this is largely a self fullfilling prophecy, the answer is virtually nothing but if a horse has "turf" blood it will get more than it's fair share of turf tries,

people not going to auction to buy Theatricals with the idea of getting a good dirt horse.




IT would make sense that US turf horses would be small agile animals able to get around the tight turns and get through small holes but that is hardly the case. Perpetually genetically deficient hooves that require softer going? Larger hooves that grab the turf better? Horse who have a innate disposition against getting shit kicked in their face?
long lean, leggy horses tend to be turf routers more than dirt routers but it is not that dramatic, many good "turf" lines don't fit and the rationale beyond the SFP is weak.


bottomline IMO is mostly self fulfilling prophecy lessly the above.


BTW fully expect the usual resistance here since so many folks make money selling pedigree crap related to turf vs dirt.

[maiom01]

The contest had nothing to do with Juanepstein. Also, CMoore's pedigree stuff was pretty exposed and he was pissed when it was pointed out.

I looked over the contest. I think his posting picks the night before was exposed much more then pedigree. A winter meet at Aqueduct is hardly a pedigree style handicappers ideal meet.

[nearco]

Pedigree often has a big say on the kind of going a horse prefers. Certain sires are known to throw horses that like a bit of give, like Sadlers Wells. Danehill's generally liked it a bit firmer. Monsun is known for throwing lots of mudlarks, so the heavier the going lump on the Monsun. I seem to remember a couple of high profile examples of this in the last year or two, a filly winning a G1 at Ascot after a heavy rain that morning turned the going from good to soft/heavy, and another German bred filly at Saratoga last year winning a big stakes at long odds after a downpour right before the race softened up the turf course.
That last example is a small sample size, I know, but there's plenty of evidence of sires having get with going preferences, esp evident in National Hunt racing.

[Jeremy Jet]

Male lines are far more meaningful than female lines in reading pedigrees. The reason for this is simple: numbers. Male influences, with rare exceptions, produce large numbers of runners from which to infer influences. Females in pedigrees, of course, produce only a small handful of runners each, so interpreting their influence (aside from class) is very tricky indeed.

So the first step is to focus on the sire and dam-sire, which are the two most genetically important male influences in a pedigree. It is always best to learn for yourself what characteristics each sire tends to pass along to its offspring, as the numerical shortcuts (e.g. Tomlinson numbers) are all deeply flawed.

Like every other aspect of handicapping, experience, time and effort will ultimately provide the greatest returns in the case of pedigree handicapping.

As a final note, pedigrees alone never tell the whole story. The physical characteristics of the horse are also important. Those who are able to judge both enjoy the biggest advantage of all.