Santa Anita ML's

[misscashalot]

Todays 4th at Santa Anita
9 horse field
5 horses with morning line of 6/1
Lazy or what?

[Stillriledup]

Hidden message 666.

[andymays]

Todays 4th at Santa Anita
9 horse field
5 horses with morning line of 6/1
Lazy or what?


John White is a nice guy who some would call the "Mr Rogers of Horse Racing".

http://pbskids.org/rogers/


As far as his morning line goes not so much.

[Charlie D]

Hidden message 666.


Frank and his partnership ???:)

[stu]

If John White feels that the final betting will lead to a 4-way tie for the third choice at post time, then you can't call him lazy.

[misscashalot]

If John White feels that the final betting will lead to a 4-way tie for the third choice at post time, then you can't call him lazy.

Try a 5 way tie

[Track Collector]

Is this the same Jon White who when asked who would win in a head-to-head match between Rachel and Zenyatta over multiple scenerios (dirt, turf, synthetic, different distances, etc.) picked Zenyatta EVERY time? :rolleyes:

[jballscalls]

This is the same Jon White who had like 6 or 7 horses in the BC Classic at 12/1 and his line was damn near perfect.

that jon white?

[andymays]

Is this the same Jon White who when asked who would win in a head-to-head match between Rachel and Zenyatta over multiple scenerios (dirt, turf, synthetic, different distances, etc.) picked Zenyatta EVERY time? :rolleyes:


You forgot that Pioneer of the Nile was going to win the triple crown. I think he even said it after the Derby. :lol:

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Is this the same Jon White that when handicapping the races on TV will talk about the horse's breeding on both sides as a handicapping factor even if the race is a 10K claimer and the 8YO horse has had 30 starts at the distance and on the surface?

[David-LV]

Jon White, Nice Guy, Terrible Morning Line Maker, but making a good morning line is not that easy.:bang:

_________
David-LV

[stu]

I vote to give John a free pass as the race switched from a downhill turf race to a flat wet-poly race.

There is no fair way to compare his line to the results.

[AgainstTheGrain]

Jon White's normally very good at his ML assessments.

[misscashalot]

I vote to give John a free pass as the race switched from a downhill turf race to a flat wet-poly race.

There is no fair way to compare his line to the results.

Lines were made a day or 2 prior to race. What you mention is not a factor. Morning lines have the greatest influence on post times odds to the betting public. More than Beyers, more than trainer...more than any other capping element. Five 6/1's is just plain poor line making. In this instance John gets no free pass from me.

[stu]

In 2009, the morning line favorite at Santa Anita and Oaktree was the post time favorite approx. 74.2% of the time (+/- 2.8% interval for a 95% statistical confidence).

This puts Santa Anita's morning line maker among the tops in the country.

[redeye007]

I've been noticing the same thing with the morning odds line. I think he's being a bit too conservative.

[newtothegame]

Ok, ladies and gents.....a few questions regarding this thread.
Maybe I am confused a bit, but why does the morning line even matter to most astute handicappers as I believe are on this site? I say that sincerely, with no malice meant.
The reason I ask that is that if I am right, the morning line is how the track's line maker BELIEVES the betting public will wager. And I will go one step further and say that I believe that most of the "pro" cappers are not included in that betting public previously mentioned.
I do believe that the average public looks at the morning line as uses it one way or another in formulating their opinions.
But wouldnt that be to an advantage for the "pro cappers"?
Alot of the betting public looks at popular jocks...owners...the last race (first line in PP's).
The more in depth cappers, look deeper...breeding...race specifics (breaking down each race)...etc etc.
I just don't see why the ML even matters to most here.....?????????

[Tom]

At the Races - Tuesday, last hour, towards the end of the show - Jon White discussing how he makes a ML.

[horses4courses]

All in all, I think John White does an OK job with the SA M/L.

Every now and then, though, there is a glaring number that jumps off the page.
Palladio at 30-1 (I think it was in the SM Classic) was a joke, and it showed in the off-time odds of nearer to a third of that. This kind of mistake happens more now than it used to. Am I complaining? You bet I'm not......

It is finding those weaknesses in a M/L that helps horseplayers.
When Joe Public splashes out his cash at the track on a Saturday afternoon,
it is usually on M/L favorites. Bettors who can identify the weak favorites on a card, often make a good profit by doing so.

Imperfections in a M/L can definitely work to your advantage.

[misscashalot]

Wednesday Mar 31 6th race SA 8 horse field five ml's 6/1