pmd62ndst
07-04-2003, 03:54 PM
Anyone read James Quinn's The Handicapper's Condition Book?
There's a chapter about handicapping Maiden Special Weight races that talks about an important angle: Where the horse finished last time out.
Basically, the chapter says that finishing second last time out will result in 25% winners vs 9% entries and finishing third last time out will result in 14% winners verses 8% entries.
Using my own findings, I was also able to confirm those numbers but unfortunately, every single flat-bet ROI produced a negative value. There was one exception that provided a positive ROI that Quinn completely forgot to mention:
Horses that finished FIRST last time out but were disqualified for whatever reason produce a flat-bet ROI in their next Maiden Special Weight Race.
This is a very rare occurance though but one to definitely keep an eye out for.
PMD
There's a chapter about handicapping Maiden Special Weight races that talks about an important angle: Where the horse finished last time out.
Basically, the chapter says that finishing second last time out will result in 25% winners vs 9% entries and finishing third last time out will result in 14% winners verses 8% entries.
Using my own findings, I was also able to confirm those numbers but unfortunately, every single flat-bet ROI produced a negative value. There was one exception that provided a positive ROI that Quinn completely forgot to mention:
Horses that finished FIRST last time out but were disqualified for whatever reason produce a flat-bet ROI in their next Maiden Special Weight Race.
This is a very rare occurance though but one to definitely keep an eye out for.
PMD