Stevie - the chartist

[timtam]

I've been going to the OTB for over 15 years and this one guy Stevie

buys no racing form or even program. He usually bets at the last minute

always watching the screen and bets $2 exacta box 4 over all and then

plays a few more exactas with the 4 over the 3 favorites. His horses are

usually 5 to 1 and above. When I stand next to him I usually make a mental

note of the horses he plays and he does hit his share. One time I ask a friend

of his how he gets his horses and he says he a CHARTIST and watches the

exacta pools. I sort of remember the term chartist from a book called

State of the Art . Does anyone else play the ponies this way because

it seem interesting to me what the heck Stevie is looking for ?

[jayfree41]

There was a guy that Andrew Beyer mentioned in one of his earliest books that is a chartist - doubles and exactas -- .

[windoor]

My dad once played a system that didn’t require a racing form. Everything was played off the board.

If I remember correctly, the idea was to play any horse that opened with odds less than half of the morning line odd and still closed with odds less than morning line. This was, supposedly “smart stable money” from guys who had to get back to work at the start of the race and had to place their wagers early.

The other angle was the second half of the daily double.
Check the payouts against morning line odds, after eliminating the card favorites, for the 2nd race and play the lowest pay out to win.

It was not profitable in the long run, but would produce quite a few winners. In fact the daily double play is still viable today. Check it out.

Regards,

Windoor

[Greyfox]

He usually bets at the last minute

always watching the screen and bets $2 exacta box 4 over all and then

plays a few more exactas with the 4 over the 3 favorites. His horses are

usually 5 to 1 and above. When I stand next to him I usually make a mental

note of the horses he plays and he does hit his share. One time I ask a friend

of his how he gets his horses and he says he a CHARTIST and watches the

exacta pools. ?

Just playing as you describe above on 8 horse races, he is spending $ 56 per race (n x n-1 = 4 x 7 x 2) on that one type of bet. Over a 9 horse card, he will have to bring back $ 504 to cover his bets.
I doubt that he would make money playing that way over a long period of time.
I suggest that the next time that you go to the track, write down what the exacta payouts are. Are they averaging $ 56 payback per race.
I doubt it. You can then work out exactly whether or not this Stevie the Chartist is really making money (assuming he gets every exacta).
I recall one author saying that "Chartists usually are seen with their clip boards writing down the odds and disappear in a year or so. Or if they hang on they go grey fast." (Words to that effect)
If you go into any track, you'll see a lot of people without programs playing the odds board and the track handicappers picks. They're recreational players who are there for camaraderie and leisure more than anything else.
I've never seen it work yet in the long run.
Although I wouldn't doubt that someone with a computer somewhere and an odds line on probabilities of combinations could make a go of it.

[broadreach]

Dick Mitchell mentioned in an early book that he knew a doctor that went to the track on weekends without doing any capping whatsoever, who would compare the exacta payoffs with a calculated exacta probability using only the win odds, and consistently bet the overlay combinations(and win).

[Robert Goren]

Ask him. He can't do any more than tell you to go fly a kite.

[the little guy]

There was a guy that Andrew Beyer mentioned in one of his earliest books that is a chartist - doubles and exactas -- .


Rebates been berry berry good to him.

[timtam]

Actually I did ask him how he came up with his horses and all he said

was You couldn't play the way I do. Maybe that was a compliment :)

[Robert Goren]

Actually I did ask him how he came up with his horses and all he said

was You couldn't play the way I do. Maybe that was a compliment :) That usually he plays the way his nose tells him to. If something smells, he is all over it. I know people ( but not many) who do this and they do pretty well. He is right, you probably could not play that way. I know I can't.

[toetoe]

not profitable in the long run ... still viable today.

:confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:

[tribecaagent]

Rebates been berry berry good to him.

I believe he sired a well known athlete as well. I'm sure he's very proud.

[windoor]

:confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:

Part one: Off the board only. Opens at 1/2 the morning line, but still less than morning line at post time.

Did not return profit over the long haul.

Part two: 2nd half of the daily double. When not one of the program selections the win percent was quite good, but lucky to find one or two plays a week.

This was when there was only one daily double and before simulcasting. So I would think it should do well today, if you care to look for them.

Regards,

Windoor

[castaway01]

Guys who have random mysterious methods that you can't explain and can't possibly track always go well...haha.

[wisconsin]

Part one: Off the board only. Opens at 1/2 the morning line, but still less than morning line at post time.

Did not return profit over the long haul.

Part two: 2nd half of the daily double. When not one of the program selections the win percent was quite good, but lucky to find one or two plays a week.

This was when there was only one daily double and before simulcasting. So I would think it should do well today, if you care to look for them.

Regards,

Windoor

Everyone used to look for the "hidden double horse", but I think with simulcasting, 90% of the handle is coming from off track, and it is much easier to hide the sneaky money in today's racing.