Love, Hate, and Heartache

[Learned Hand35]

New to the board and needing advice. (Boring intro/background) I have been in the game a little over a year. I fell in love it with it after going to the track in January '09, the first time since I was a pre-teen. (I volunteered at a horse farm when I was 11 or so and mucked stalls for a grandfatherly gentleman who took me to the track a couple of times. I was hooked until , my father informed me that I would be too tall, and likely too fat, to be a jockey. My father was a very supportive guy. Of course, my father was right, though I didn't get fat until I hit my thirties. Time passes. Other sports, cars and chasing girls take the forefront and horse racing is forgotten completely until the fateful day last year.)

The game has become a beautiful and mysterious woman who has given me a taste of her secrets, but scorned me completely as of late. I love and hate her. I started a small library, devoured everything I could on the net, and really thought I was learning everyday. I was even almost proud of my 2009 ROI of -35%, because hey, it was my first year, I hit decent exotics on numerous occassions, and was still learning.

However, this year I can't even luck into a decent win and when I do make a moderate score and think I am growing my bankroll, I give it all back and then some. What is even worse, I feel like I have hit a wall in my handicapping education. I don't feel like I am learning. I have read enough to understand that even the best horseplayers go through a bad streak now and then, but everything that seemingly could go wrong does and will. I am really starting to believe that you can beat a race, but you can't beat the races.

I am at a loss. I am wondering if I need to give my mistress up. (Assuming I am even able now that she has her hooks in me.) I have shown flashes of self-proclaimed brilliance and really think I have what it takes to be an excellent horseplayer. Then again, maybe I am delusional.

Any advice? Tips? Warnings to run away from her as fast I can before she breaks my heart?

[johnhannibalsmith]

If you love the time you and that old gal spend together as much as it sounds, don't worry so much about the ROI. There's not much better than having a lover that pays all the bills, but sometimes just having that passion is worth the price of admission. Don't go broke and ruin your life trying to win her over, but enjoy it, concentrate on the good times and learn from the bad times to lessen the chances of splitting up. If it is true love, you two will grow together until creating special moments just comes naturally.

Or, you can avoid the advice of this lifelong losing romantic and talk to one of the certified experts in such relationships. :)

Honestly, it's nice to hear someone with a genuine attraction to all that is great about racing.

[LottaKash]

LH35, don't sweat it, I quit that chick a couple of hundred times...She was just too attractive and compelling to me, to give her up....Hang in there, perhaps for a bit you can just scale back your wagers and then just kind of earn as you learn....At some point in time, if you stay with her long enough, the need to purely gamble on her might subside somewhat, and you will be better able to zero in on the areas of play that make you the most kash....And that may simply mean a pet winning angle, or a particular track that you do better at than others, or maybe claimers vs. conditional races etc,....If you keep track of your bets, mostl likely you will find some sweet spots, and then you can concentrate your efforts "more" in those areas....Hey, play what you know, and experiment on paper....

Best of luck in your way of going...

[WinterTriangle]

I feel like I have hit a wall in my handicapping education. I don't feel like I am learning. I have read enough to understand

Stop reading for a while and start watching races, replays, and making notes on what you see, and have a virtual stable set up for the ones that impress you.

And be VERY SELECTIVE what races you play. I've gone weeks without seeing a race I feel I can really make $$ on.

My virtual stable horses have paid off dearly. It's a lot of work to keep it updated and current, including deleting and adding all the time. You can use your own database, of course.

[raybo]

I agree with a couple of the responders, keep records, identify your strengths and weaknesses. Concentrate your efforts on your strengths while working on your weaknesses.

Don't expect that you will become profitable quickly, many here have been working on this game for 20 or more years.

Generally, once you reach the point of being able to predict how a race will run and not be too far off, you will know you're getting close. Knowing which horses will be up front and which ones will trail allows you to really get down to work, figuring which ones will not finish and which ones will.

In this game you have to beat the crowd, but fortunately, the crowd isn't too bright when it comes to handicapping and wagering.

[Charlie D]

Spend more time analysing the results of races lost and try to identify why you lost them. In other words, try to learn from your mistakes.

Edited to add

Forget exotics for now as your just going to be bait for people like raybo :)


Learn to walk first by becoming a consistent win only bettor.

[DJofSD]

You've reached a plateau. That not anything unusual. Don't be afraid to take a break. Taking a respite will put things into perspective. Years ago I learned that even Tom Brohamer takes a break from the game. At that time he would stop shortly after the start of the SAX winter/spring meeting, wait for trout fisihing season to start and go fishing then start again around the beginning of HOL spring summer. And, look at the word recreatation. Ask yourself: are you re-creating anything at the moment?

[raybo]

Spend more time analysing the results of races lost and try to identify why you lost them. In other words, try to learn from your mistakes.

Edited to add

Forget exotics for now as your just going to be bait for people like raybo :)


Learn to walk first by becoming a consistent win only bettor.

Good advice. You have to learn to identify contenders first, then winners, before you tackle the exotics. But, this can all be done on paper, so no need to feed the pools, until your ready. It's ok to wager real money, just set a limit on how much you can afford to lose, then stick with it until you know you can beat the game on paper.

[Charlie D]

If you learn to walk first and become a consistent at "winner" finding it then opens the door to these.

$2 Pick 3 (1-9-1) 3 Correct Paid $87.50

[magwell]

The game is like someone else said, its like the crazy girlfriend you know you should quit her but can't, no other girl can ring your bell like she can,so you hang in and enjoy it till she just don't do it for you anymore, BTW I still cant quit her.... she still rings my bell after all these years.....:cool:

[Charlie D]

One last piece of advice.


Circuits like NYRA are probably your best starting point as the racing is of decent quality and the result of that is consistent performances most of time.


Once circiuts like NYRA are mastered you can then think about dipping your toe into the racing that has a more erratic nature.

[wisconsin]

First thing you need to do is listen to Robert Palmer's two songs that say it all:

Simply Irresistable and Addicted to Love

Listen to the lyrics and you'll soon see where I am coming from.

Racing is a great game. She is a pr*ck teaser and heartbreaker all in one, but then again, she can be like Christmas Day. All I know, is that once you have her, you can never turn back. Ever. Sometimes I don't even know why I love her, but I do.

On the serious side, you need to do all you can to pass as many races as you can. Pick and choose your spots. Don't manufacture tickets just because you feel like a bet. You will learn over time what wins at first glance (we all know this) and those are the races to crush. Welcome and all the best to you!

[Ian Meyers]

You got to know yourself first, your risk tolerance and need for positive reinforcement.

If you're the kind of person that needs/wants big scores and can live with droughts that would lend itself to longshot and/or exotic play. In that case you first need to start with identifying races where the favorite is vulnerable. You won't catch many fish if you're fishing in the wrong pond.

On the other hand if you need to cash frequently for the positive reinforcement try identifying races where 1, 2 or 3 horses stand out from the rest of the field. If you're good at that you'll make money betting one or more of your choices and/or boxing them in exactas. I know successful players that employ each style.

You'll also need to learn discipline because you find the vast majority of the races fall into neither of those categories. You must pass those kinds of events. With full card simulcasting available at dozens of sites on the internet you will find enough good races to play into.

Good luck.

[miesque]

Don't be afraid to take breaks periodically to freshen your mind. If you ever feel like its become a grind, you feel you are constantly going the wrong direction and/or you are getting more frustrated then enjoying it, you are probably overdue for a break. The duration of the break varies among players, some take length sabbatical type breaks whereas I take more frequent short breaks for example right now I am in the midst of a 12 day break. You need to figure out what works best for you.

One last side comment as someone for whom exotic wagers account for 90-95% of their play. If you think of all the possible wager options in terms of a graph of their risk/reward profiles, starting with show wagers on one end and moving up to the Pick 6 on the other, as you increase the level of risk inherent in the type of wager incoming cash flows (aka winning revenue) becomes much more erratic and that can take a toll mentally/emotionally if you let it or are operating above your optimal risk level. If you are finding yourself not happy with that aspect of the wagers you play, you may be better off shifting down the curve to lower risk wagers which yes pay less but also have a more stable payout pattern, at least for the short-term.

[windoor]

As has been mentioned, solid record keeping is a must if your want to improve. The best way to increase win percent (IMHO) is to eliminate the losers. You can usually find races were your method of handicapping is not strong by looking at the races you play and see were the most winners are coming from. This was key for me to finally succeed. Patience and discipline are paramount. If you are playing every race, you are more than likely going to lose in the long run. Find out what type of races are working and throw the rest out.

It took me over forty years to have a winning year (2009) and I’m off to a less than stellar start this year. Still profitable, but win percent is down 7 points and average odd is down nearly two points for the first two months.

If you have Microsoft Excel, I would be happy to send you a basic spreadsheet that will help with the record keeping. It also incorporates some basic filters that will allow you to look at specific races as in Age, distance, surface, class level etc, along with running totals of plays, win percent and average odd. This is for a win bet only, but can be modified to cover any type of wager.

I see no reason to risk a penny (unless just for fun) of your money until you can play on paper and show a profit over at least a three month period. The cost is about $30.00 per track per month.

Regards,

Windoor

[46zilzal]

Howard Sartin advised new players to wait until they were able to call the race ONE step ahead of the announcer before they ever should put dollar one down.

If you can figure out enough races to be in the ball park on your race call, the you are ready to try to wager on it.

Realistically, I suggest step two, the wagering, should be done on paper just until that aspect of the game is second nature as well. Saves the ego.

[castaway01]

You've reached a plateau. That not anything unusual. Don't be afraid to take a break. Taking a respite will put things into perspective. Years ago I learned that even Tom Brohamer takes a break from the game. At that time he would stop shortly after the start of the SAX winter/spring meeting, wait for trout fisihing season to start and go fishing then start again around the beginning of HOL spring summer. And, look at the word recreatation. Ask yourself: are you re-creating anything at the moment?

That's so funny---I take a break to fish too, except in the fall. At least I'm in good company.

[only11]

Stop reading for a while and start watching races, replays, and making notes on what you see, and have a virtual stable set up for the ones that impress you.

And be VERY SELECTIVE what races you play. I've gone weeks without seeing a race I feel I can really make $$ on.

My virtual stable horses have paid off dearly. It's a lot of work to keep it updated and current, including deleting and adding all the time. You can use your own database, of course.
WT how long do you wait to delete a horse from VS how many races?

[Dan H]

The game has become a beautiful and mysterious woman ... Just to extend the metaphor here ... I say ...

Ditch the bitch ... and woo her sister (stock market).

[JohnGalt1]

Some of the things I do is--

Take a break. For me 2-4 weeks.

Review how I handicap, re-read the books and methods I use. If they've worked, they'll work again.

When I go back, I bet win place, no exactas (so I always get paid when my horse finishes at least second) when I like one horse. If I like two horses and the odds are high enough I bet both.

And I pass the races where I have a slight edge.

When my bets stop their seconditis and start winning, I go back to straight win betting, adding back exotics, and playing the races that I have a slight edge.

[Johnny V]

The key for me in helping turning my game around was record keeping. That was without a doubt the biggest factor for me. Carefully watching races, not just your horse, also can bring dividends. It takes time. I would continue to read as much as possible. Enjoy the game. Step back, take a break if need be and cut back on the amount wagered when in a slump.
We all go through slumps and and sometimes terrible losing streaks where all the close calls go the other way. That will always be a periodic factor in the game and I have learned to accept that as part of the cost of doing business but it will eventually turn. Don't over-handicap when feeling frustrated. That helps me sometimes as well.

[only11]

The key for me in helping turning my game around was record keeping. That was without a doubt the biggest factor for me. Carefully watching races, not just your horse, also can bring dividends. It takes time. I would continue to read as much as possible. Enjoy the game. Step back, take a break if need be and cut back on the amount wagered when in a slump.
We all go through slumps and and sometimes terrible losing streaks where all the close calls go the other way. That will always be a periodic factor in the game and I have learned to accept that as part of the cost of doing business but it will eventually turn. Don't over-handicap when feeling frustrated. That helps me sometimes as well.
:ThmbUp: well said..

[Seabiscuit@AR]

First thing you need to do is ask whoever you bet with for as big a rebate as the big players get. Also ask for a few extra percent rebate on top as you are a newbie in training

[riskman]

First thing you need to do is ask whoever you bet with for as big a rebate as the big players get. Also ask for a few extra percent rebate on top as you are a newbie in training


Good luck with that one.

[TJDave]

Realistically, I suggest step two, the wagering, should be done on paper just until that aspect of the game is second nature as well. Saves the ego.

At least for me. :bang:

A plan that works 'on paper' doesn't always translate into profits. I'd suggest minimal wagering while refining your system. A loss isn't a real loss unless there's a consequence.

[raybo]

At least for me. :bang:

A plan that works 'on paper' doesn't always translate into profits. I'd suggest minimal wagering while refining your system. A loss isn't a real loss unless there's a consequence.

Having done it "on paper" for 20+ years before wagering seriously, I found that the real worth, gained from that experience, revealed itself in the form of confidences; confidence that I had performed an adequate amount of due diligence, enough to be satisfied that I had evaluated most of the controversies I would likely encounter going forward, and, that I could handle them successfully; confidence that my handicapping skills were truly foundational, grounded in realistic expectation, and, had been logically evolved; confidence that my handicapping methods worked and that my wagering strategy, if consistently followed, would produce profit, long term.

And, I developed faith. Faith in myself being successful in the endeavor.

So, in my case, what I had done "on paper" prepared me for the realities I faced in real life. Except for one major setback, due to having too much confidence in the "software" portion of my handicapping and too much stress from having no backup income, resulting in my having to step back for a year and get my feet back under me, I have accomplished what I set out to do.

[harntrox]

TVGFree.Net (http://TVGFree.Net) is a great place to test your 'system'. Not only that, they are also 2 hours ahead of Equibases scratch list. All the scratches are in 2 hours before the races start. I find this timely information to be a huge benefit and its totally free.

[Trotman]

LH35 it sounds as if that beautiful gal has kissed you,time to back off and regroup.

[Learned Hand35]

I really appreciate everyone's input and advice. This really is a great forum.

I have taken a step back and have been playing on paper, pouring over my records, and going back and reading the books I have collected. I have already realized a few things:

1. My discipline has been very poor and I have been betting way more races, that I have marginal feelings about, than I should.

2. Professional life stress and time constraints causing a loss of concentration, has led to sloppy handicapping, missing angles, and just plain "not seeing it" like I should.

3. As a result of 1 and 2, I have been playing too many tracks and like an idiot still placing bets at tracks where I absolutely cannot handicap a card with any success, e.g., Santa Anita and Hawthorne.

4. I need to refine my system. To my detriment, I do not have a strong enough understanding of pace.

Again, thanks everyone.