Suffolk, Lone Star & River Downs?

[fmhealth]

The three tracks with the highest percentage of winning favorites in 2009. Thanks to Steve Crist for the insightful analysis.

http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/

[lamboguy]

The three tracks with the highest percentage of winning favorites in 2009. Thanks to Steve Crist for the insightful analysis.

http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/what was so insightful about this ananlysis?

why didn't he give you the reason's for this? he know's the reason just as well as i do. this is all due to betting after the bell and canceling tickets after the bell. all no good for business these day's especially since most people are betting though adw's and don't have that fine opportunity.

[Saratoga_Mike]

what was so insightful about this ananlysis?

why didn't he give you the reason's for this? he know's the reason just as well as i do. this is all due to betting after the bell and canceling tickets after the bell. all no good for business these day's especially since most people are betting though adw's and don't have that fine opportunity.

OR it could be tracks with generally weak fields where a handful of trainers dominate, resulting in a lot of short-priced horses. Or it could be tracks with generally smaller field sizes.

[garyscpa]

what was so insightful about this ananlysis?

why didn't he give you the reason's for this? he know's the reason just as well as i do. this is all due to betting after the bell and canceling tickets after the bell. all no good for business these day's especially since most people are betting though adw's and don't have that fine opportunity.

So what you lose in rebate, you get at the track? :D

[lamboguy]

OR it could be tracks with generally weak fields where a handful of trainers dominate, resulting in a lot of short-priced horses. Or it could be tracks with generally smaller field sizes.
those 3 tracks have bigger sized fields than most others. i see plenty of 12 horse fields at sulfolk and river, i see 14 horse fields at lone star. the larger the field size is supposed to mean less favorites. when you can call the break and there are 3 horses between 8/5 and 3-1 you are going to get the right one 99% of the time if you can bet after the bell

[Cubbymac26]

OR it could be tracks with generally weak fields where a handful of trainers dominate, resulting in a lot of short-priced horses. Or it could be tracks with generally smaller field sizes.

or it could be betting after the bell

[Robert Goren]

or it could be betting after the bell And why is different than what happens any place else? I bet on NY tracks and the amount of money that shows up on the tote board after the bell is about a third of the handle in the win pool. I can not say for sure when the money was actually bet, but it sure looks suspicious.

[Cubbymac26]

hahahaha i was just responding from the previous post

i can see why odds are always changin im guilty of always waiting till the last second to bet so it takes time for my bet to enter the pool....at some point i will realize that..

[Charlie D]

the larger the field size is supposed to mean less favorites


Larger fields can just mean more no hopers are running rather than more competitive fields.


Oversaturation of product is the main problem i think.

[Robert Goren]

I could careless if larger fields have more or less favorites win at higher or lower odds. I do know that a horse that I like at a price is more likely to be overlooked in a large field than in a small one.

[startngate]

what was so insightful about this ananlysis?

why didn't he give you the reason's for this? he know's the reason just as well as i do. this is all due to betting after the bell and canceling tickets after the bell. all no good for business these day's especially since most people are betting though adw's and don't have that fine opportunity.Would you care to provide even one shred of proof?

Don't let facts get in the way of a good story now ... all three of those tracks have zero close-cancel delays, yet Turf Paradise with the longest close cancel delay is 27th, Oaklawn with the next longest is 67th, and the California tracks with close cancel delays are at 28th, 44th, 46th, and 69th.

Looking at the top 10, I see a lot of tracks that run a substantial number of state-bred races, and have lower level horses, plus Los Al which runs mostly quarter horses. In state-bred races at smaller tracks you frequently have a small number of horses, owners and trainers at each level that dominate, and with lower level claimers in conditioned races there are frequently stand-outs that fit the conditions perfectly and are logical choices.

I've always believed quarter horses run a little more true to form so it doesn't surprise me that Los Al, and tracks like Lone Star, Canterbury and Prairie Meadows who run mixed meets are up there.

Smaller pools also require less money to make a horse a favorite, and with smaller purses in place the barns and owners bet more.

Of course I suppose a tin foil hat will protect you from evil, so continue on ...

[lamboguy]

Would you care to provide even one shred of proof?

Don't let facts get in the way of a good story now ... all three of those tracks have zero close-cancel delays, yet Turf Paradise with the longest close cancel delay is 27th, Oaklawn with the next longest is 67th, and the California tracks with close cancel delays are at 28th, 44th, 46th, and 69th.

Looking at the top 10, I see a lot of tracks that run a substantial number of state-bred races, and have lower level horses, plus Los Al which runs mostly quarter horses. In state-bred races at smaller tracks you frequently have a small number of horses, owners and trainers at each level that dominate, and with lower level claimers in conditioned races there are frequently stand-outs that fit the conditions perfectly and are logical choices.

I've always believed quarter horses run a little more true to form so it doesn't surprise me that Los Al, and tracks like Lone Star, Canterbury and Prairie Meadows who run mixed meets are up there.

Smaller pools also require less money to make a horse a favorite, and with smaller purses in place the barns and owners bet more.

Of course I suppose a tin foil hat will protect you from evil, so continue on ...
the close cancel may refer to wagers that are at outside facilities not the host venue. on track sulfolk has over 6 seconds for cancels, its in their union contract for teller's. i didn't even know they still had union's in race tracks until you brought this to my attention. thank you.

[Charlie D]

Some good points made by startngate as to why these tracks may have such a high %favs i think.

[lamboguy]

Some good points made by startngate as to why these tracks may have such a high %favs i think.years ago before the age of computers sulfolk use to have the lowest rate of winning favorites.

i just heard that next week they are going to vote on slots for mass. and it looks good for them at this point. the owner of sulfolk plans to advance the purse structure there after the vote.

[Charlie D]

years ago before the age of computers sulfolk use to have the lowest rate of winning favorites.

.


The techno age has indeed allowed the competent cappers to spread thier wings.

Robert

Woodbine may be a good spot for you. ;)

[CincyHorseplayer]

I doubt anyone was wondering.I certainly suspected as much about the % of winning favorites,but this is the reason I became a hardcore exacta player.I couldn't have ever beat the Ohio circuit,at any meet without it.