Claiming Picks

[Que]

After that last performance, it's time to immediately start another trail. This one will be fairly simple: play only claiming races (maiden, optional, etc.); play only horse's first/second time off a claim; and play only trainers that have been successful under the same circumstances in the past. (Personally, I never tested this type of play--but I've always wanted to. So rather than run a historical test, I'll try an out-of-sample real time test.)

4 July
AP3 #3 Getaway Holme 2/1
HOL8 #4 Kid Rio 6/1
MNR8 #5 Granbury 6/1
PHA4 #7 Dizzy Diggy 9/2

Que.

[Que]

Results of day 1: 4 starts, 1 win, 0 seconds, and 2 thirds. ($8 bet to win, and $5.00 returned; -38% ROI.)

[Que]

This system better have a really good ROI, because there doesn't seem to be enough plays to keep me interested.

5 July
CRC5 #3 Felo 4/1
CT2 #2 Suave Princess 10/1
CD2 #8 Gorgeous Lake 12/1
LS5 #6 Late Afternoon 10/1
SUF6 #1 Code Name Louie 5/2

[pic6vic]

This may be good to explore. I think you are on the right path. You may have to refine a bit

[Suff]

I'm watching to Que. Keep tinkering.

[Que]

This is starting off worse than the previous study. Results through day 2: 8 starts, 1 win, 1 second, and 3 thirds. ($16 bet to win, and $5.00 returned; -69% ROI.)

7 July
AP2 #9 Zencredable 5/1
DEL1 #2 Wild Cut 4/1
DEL5 #1 Fighting Spirit 10/1
HOL4 #7 Pavlovsk 6/1
HOL5 #2 Hezafreespirit 3/1
LAD7 #4 Southern Boy 8/1
MNR8 #4 Feelinghisoats 6/1
MNR10 #8 Storm Dancing 6/1

[Que]

OK... I was a day ahead, those picks were actually for 6 July, not 7 July (however, I'm a day ahead here in Thailand, so I have a good excuse.) Anyway, the picks did good--three wins, and three seconds (all at 5-1 or better). Results through day 3: 16 starts, 4 wins, 4 seconds, and 3 thirds ($32 bet to win, and $38.20 returned; +19% ROI).

[Que]

7 July (or 8 July if you're east of the international date line)
DEL1 #7 Grades of Honor 2/1
DEL8 #8 Paparazzi 4/1
DEL9 #1A Caymus 4/1
MNR7 #4 Proper Conquest 5/2

[melman]

As usual a great looking format and super results Mr Que. Only a matter of time with you. Hope all is well with your stay in Southeast Asia. One thing I remember about my time over there was the size of the bugs HUGE. Know you are a busy man over there but hope you can stop by the War Room some times. You have a truly amazing collection of homegrown trainer and jockey stats and put them to good use. How long before a return to the states Que???

[Que]

Thanks Mel,

I still have another 2-3 years left in Thailand. And its hard to believe that I've been here almost a year already; the first few months went by real slow, but the last six months or so have just flown by. I hope to make it to the warroom more often, but I have to get up pretty early to do so. Anyway, good to hear from you again. Que

Results through day 4: 18 starts, 4 wins, 5 seconds, and 4 thirds ($36 bet to win, and $38.20 returned; +6% ROI).

[Zaf]

Que,

If you don't mind me asking. What do you do in Thailand. Must be an interesting place.

ZAFONIC

[Que]

Zafonic,

I don't mind. I work in Security Assistance. And you are right, Bangkok is a very interesting place--especially if you're male.

Que.

[Que]

Only two plays today...

8 July--Day 5
Pha10 #5 Louie 12/1
Suf5 #4 Conlua 4/1

[Que]

Results through day 5: 20 starts, 5 wins, 5 seconds, and 5 thirds ($40 bet to win, and $47.00 returned; +17.5% ROI).

[Que]

12 July
AP1 #1 Joyous Appeal 5/2
AP9 #7 Lucky M 5/2
CT6 #6 Paralink 4/1
CT7 #4 You P. S. 10/1
CT10 #3 Countless Moment 8/1
DEL3 #8 Dream Dancer 7/2
MTH1 #2 Gold Case Pleasure 5/2
MNR7 #3 Tenfortynine 9/2

[Suff]

Originally posted by Que
Results through day 5: 20 starts, 5 wins, 5 seconds, and 5 thirds ($40 bet to win, and $47.00 returned; +17.5% ROI).

75% ITM and Positive return on straight WP bets.

Yea gotta Figure with 5 2nds and 5 3rds,, Your whacking some doubles, pik3's , exactas and Tri's.

Monster day.

[Que]

The jury is still out regarding this angle, but the ITM% is encouraging. Results of the trial through day 6: 28 starts, 7 wins, 7 seconds, and 7 thirds ($56 bet to win, and $57.20 returned; +2% ROI).

July 13
AP8 #3 King Cielo 5/1
BEL2 #7 Cabaret Dancer 4/1
DEL9 #1 Imprints in Gold 9/2
MTH3 #7 Sleep Away 8/5
MNR8 #4 Chief Rainbow 5/1
MNR9 #9 Special Appeal 12/1

[Que]

This was one of those days that makes you want to give up handicapping altoghter; it was even more frustrating than golf. Four of the top six picks finished 2nd, including the last horse, Special Appeal, at 12-1. More frustrating, however, was the 8th race and 9th races at Mnr where I had the top two finishers in each race on my trifecta ticket, but I couldn't get the 3rd place horse to complete the ticket--those $2 tri's paid $1,853 and $1,530 respectfully.

Results of the trial through day 7: 34 starts, 8 wins, 11 seconds, and 7 thirds ($68 bet to win, and $65.00 returned; -4% ROI to win). But, had you played every horse to place (which I never do by the way), you would have returned $102.40; +50% ROI to place--just another fact, that only adds to my current frustration. :(

[melman]

Que I know of two full time players. One is a win and pic3 player only. The other is really a group of four who bet only tri's and supers. The 2nd group loves the "all" buttom for 3rd and 4th and make no bones about rooting for "junk" horses at 40--1 and up to get 3rd or 4th. BOTH say the differance between a year of just making some money and a super year of income is nose bobs and bad trips by the favorites. You are on to "live" ones and keep going as it has to lead to profit. Hey at least you did not get into the land of having the ticket and some steward took down the result for some reason known only to them. LOL Never played golf Que horses are enough "fun". lol Hang game Q it WILL turn around.

[Que]

Mel,

Thanks for the pep talk... but it was a very frustrating day. I even had a profitable weekend, but today "coulda" been great (lol). Like you suggested, in that 8th race at MNR, I usually box my top two choices if they are both at 5-1 or greater then hit the all button in the 3rd spot; but on this occasion, I decided to box my top four picks instead--all of which were 5-1 or greater. However, one of the horses I was planning to box scratched late, but instead of updating my box by adding my new 4th pick who was at 40-1 BTW, I decided to go with just the three horse box, since I was really just planning to bet the #4 to win anyway. Of course, the 40-1 shot runs third, completeing the tri and my primary play, the #4, gets boxed-in all the way home and loses by a neck. Anyway, what does this comment mean, i.e. "collared from 1/4 pole by KNOW HOW through the stretch, missed in close quarters?" Is collaring legal in horseracing? Anyway, I still have the 9th race left, and my main play, the #9, is 14-1. But since I noticed that my top three picks were all 10-1 or better, I decided that I'd better play another trifecta box (just in case). And of course, the result's were the same--a big goose egg. This time my win bet runs second at 14-1, my third choice wins at 16-1, but my second choice who was at 10-1 was left behind at the starting gate and finished 6th. Anyway, it was a painful 30 minutes to endure, and it was yet another lesson of what I "coulda" or "shoulda" done. Anyway, I wouldn't have past posted all this, except since I did post these two races beforehand, I felt I at least earned the right to complain afterwards. Thanks again...

Que.

[melman]

That was some "bad beats" on those last two at the Mountain Mr Q. As a former president once said "I feel your pain" LOL And you sure are entitled to a little looking back at the races. Hope you can stop at the War Room sometime maybe late on a Friday night if the time differance is OK. All the best Q

[Que]

17 July
AP1 #4 Female Accomplice 7/2
AP4 #1 Go for Puddin 7/2
CT8 #2 Zi Pep 10/1
ElP1 #5 No Kowtowing 12/1
HOL2 #4 Devlish 7/5
HOL6 #5 Cantaloupe 2/1

[Suff]

Have you narrowed your Parameters..or is it just not giving off much right now. As far as opportinuties?

Do you crunch every race? At NY? and its not giving you more than 2-3 horse's a week there?

[pic6vic]

Que

I follow So Cal racing quite closely. I also follow trainers closely. Your program is right on (IMHO). Too bad the fields are so small.

Also you may want to expand your program to include horses like the winner of the 8th at HOL yesterday WEDS 7/16. This wasn't a claim but a straigth trainer change. (maybe it does this already).

[Que]

Suff,

The parameters are the same, also I don't handicap the races everyday. Therefore, if you don't see any plays posted for a given day, more than likely its because I didn't have the time to handicap the races that day. When I do have time, I crunch most of the tracks (including the NYRA), but for some reason I haven't had too many good claiming picks for Belmont.

Que.

[rmania]

Originally posted by pic6vic
Que

I follow So Cal racing quite closely. I also follow trainers closely. Your program is right on (IMHO). Too bad the fields are so small.

Also you may want to expand your program to include horses like the winner of the 8th at HOL yesterday WEDS 7/16. This wasn't a claim but a straigth trainer change. (maybe it does this already).
PIC6VIC,

Regarding yesterday's 8th race winner, I'm not convinced that a change in trainer made the difference.

I didn't mention this horse as a selection because the quarter-pole view I'm basing my "experiment" on had this one 3 lengths behind the two I mentioned (tied with Kissin Ty).

However, a quick flip to the finish line view showed this one in front by 4 1/2 lengths. And, of course, I knew this prior to posting but refrained from using him because it would have been out of scope so-to-speak.

If the trainer change did indeed make the differece then I'd have to believe that the previous trainer was incapable of finding a field the horse could compete with.

[pic6vic]

Rmania

What makes you think that jack Van berg (hall of fame trainer) now hitting at a 3% rate will do the right thing. Aquirre who is roughly 28 % with first time trainers knows how to get a horse ready. Where in his first 2 races did thishorse show 21.3 speed. The difference is the trainer.

[rmania]

Originally posted by pic6vic
What makes you think that jack Van berg (hall of fame trainer) now hitting at a 3% rate will do the right thing. Jack Van Berg !!!

I take back everything I said.

That guy is a fool and a disgrace to the sport. You would think by now that he would be barred from every track in the country.

[Que]

Results of the trial through day 8: 39 starts, 10 wins, 11 seconds, and 9 thirds ($78 bet to win, and $74.60 returned; -4% ROI to win).

[Que]

18 July
AP6 #3 Court Lite Kenny 10/1
BEL5 #2 When It Rains 5/2
CRC11 #9 Felo 6/1
CT1 #5 Coyote Kid 10/1
CT9 #9 Snap Hook 8/1
WO5 #4 War Alliance 6/1

[Que]

Results of the trial through day 9: 43 starts, 11 wins, 11 seconds, and 10 thirds ($86 bet to win, and $92.20 returned; +7% ROI).

[Que]

19 July
AP3 #7 Brightstone 7/5
CRC4 #3 Rosies Wild Lips 4/1
CT4 #4 Clever Too 8/1
CT4 #6 Stay the Night 10/1
CT6 #1 Who Fired Who 10/1
DEL2 #8 Tack Room Lady 8/1
LAD7 #7 Twin Cat 3/1
MNR1 #7 Annie Pannie 8/1
WO10 #1 Vorticity 5/2

[Que]

Results of the trial through day 10: 52 starts, 13 wins, 13 seconds, and 11 thirds ($104 bet to win, and $108.60 returned; +4% ROI).

[Que]

20 July
HOL2 #3 Flying Rudolph 7/5
HOL8 #2 Highly Tempting 2/1
HOL9 #1 The Poseur 4/1

[Que]

Results of the trial through day 11: 55 starts, 15 wins, 13 seconds, and 11 thirds ($110 bet to win, and $114.80 returned; +4% ROI).

[Que]

21 July
DEL2 #4 Goldcappedtooth 12/1
DEL5 #3 All the Loot 6/1
SUF3 #5 Strike It Big 9/2
SUF5 #5 Conlua 3/1

[Que]

Results of the trial through day 12: 59 starts, 16 wins, 13 seconds, and 12 thirds ($118 bet to win, and $121.40 returned; +3% ROI).

[Que]

22 July
DEL3 #7 Ten Something 8/1
SUF9 #4 Navy Seal 8/1

[Que]

Results of the trial through day 13: 61 starts, 16 wins, 13 seconds, and 13 thirds ($122 bet to win, and $121.40 returned; -1% ROI).

[Que]

24 July
AP2 #5 Agua Frio 4/1
AP4 #1 Refax 7/2
MTH4 #11 Elin 15/1

[Que]

Results of the trial through day 14: 64 starts, 16 wins, 15 seconds, and 13 thirds ($128 bet to win, and $121.40 returned; -5% ROI).

[Que]

28 July
DMR4 #2 Beyond Infinity (FR) 3/1
DMR5 #3 Fancy Begining 8/1
DMR5 #8 Linda Eder 6/1
DEL5 #4 Wood Lily 10/1
DEL8 #6 Icarian 2/1
DEL9 #1 Senor Experience 10/1
DEL9 #9 Scootch 8/1
PHA7 #7 Diamond Cruz 5/1