Who is likely to make a mistake?

[only11]

We all know its between RA and Z,but lets not forget jockeys play a HUGE part in a race like this..A la Bailey on Cigar when losing to Dare To Go..

So who is likely to make the mistake (if there is one)/Smith or Borel?

[andymays]

You need to know who else is in the race before you can guesstimate.

In a short field Smith moves too soon and gets within 3 at the top of the stretch and then Rachel runs awayand wins by 5.

In a big field with several who run on the lead or near the pace there is more chance for Rachel to get in trouble.

[46zilzal]

We all know its between RA and Z,but lets not forget jockeys play a HUGE part in a race like this..A la Bailey on Cigar when losing to Dare To Go..

So who is likely to make the mistake (if there is one)/Smith or Borel?

Crap Cigar was doomed when the pace scenario was set by Siphon: go with that one and the "soon to get really ragged" form cycle of Paulson's horse would collapse and chasing him and stay too far back and the Brazilian horse would be gone.

[FenceBored]

We all know its between RA and Z,but lets not forget jockeys play a HUGE part in a race like this..A la Bailey on Cigar when losing to Dare To Go..

So who is likely to make the mistake (if there is one)/Smith or Borel?

An important factor in you thinking might be who's more familar/comfortable at Oaklawn; Smith, who seldom rides there, or Borel who's winning at 23% there right now?

[born2ride]

How do you factor in Smith riding Zenyatta considering she hasn't run on dirt in two years?

[Hanover1]

How do you factor in Smith riding Zenyatta considering she hasn't run on dirt in two years?
Not much to factor imo. Shes a deep closer-let her do her thing....timeing the move during the trip is the key.

[Nikki1997]

The Apple Blossom in 2008 was the first time Mike rode Zenyatta. Didn't seem to have much a problem then.

[Hanover1]

We all know its between RA and Z,but lets not forget jockeys play a HUGE part in a race like this..A la Bailey on Cigar when losing to Dare To Go..

So who is likely to make the mistake (if there is one)/Smith or Borel?
Its a toss-up imo. Borel could blow it with the pace scenario, or Smith could move at the wrong time. Andy is correct-better idea once we see the field and potential scenario. We all know that 1 will leave/stalk, and the other will close late. Borel plays catch me if you can, and Smith sez: "Won't have to wait to long, I'm on the way"......

[only11]

Its a toss-up imo. Borel could blow it with the pace scenario, or Smith could move at the wrong time. Andy is correct-better idea once we see the field and potential scenario. We all know that 1 will leave/stalk, and the other will close late. Borel plays catch me if you can, and Smith sez: "Won't have to wait to long, I'm on the way"......
Hanover how long does it take for a trainer to change a horse's running style?

[Hanover1]

Hanover how long does it take for a trainer to change a horse's running style?
Best to find the right race instead..........

[andymays]

Hanover how long does it take for a trainer to change a horse's running style?

Ask the Jockeys!


Eddie Delahousaye was the best at it. He was the best.

[Tee]

I don't see that scenario happening against Rachel. Is there a filly in training that is capable of going gate to wire in a Gr 1 route? One that Rachel has to give an ounce of respect?



Crap Cigar was doomed when the pace scenario was set by Siphon: go with that one and the "soon to get really ragged" form cycle of Paulson's horse would collapse and chasing him and stay too far back and the Brazilian horse would be gone.

[Hanover1]

Borel certainly has the tougher of the 2 mounts to handle.......

[bisket]

i think zenyatta runs around 48 for the 1/2. i don't see her real far back.

[joanied]

Borel certainly has the tougher of the 2 mounts to handle.......

I agree with this...Mike needs to have his timing perfect, Calvin needs to really think as soon as the gate opens...
I know that Calvin is outstanding at Oaklawn...and I guess that gives him a slight edge...but which rider is most likely to make a mistake...jeeze, I hate saying it...Mike and Calvin are my favorite jockey's...have been for a long time, so this is a toughie...but I think Calvin would be more likely to make a mistake...on the other hand...IMO, neither of them is gonna screw up...not in this race:)

Bailey and Cigar...I have still not forgiven Bailey for letting himself get into a speed duel with Siphon...now that was a huge mistake:mad:

[Saratoga_Mike]

I agree with this...Mike needs to have his timing perfect, Calvin needs to really think as soon as the gate opens...
I know that Calvin is outstanding at Oaklawn...and I guess that gives him a slight edge...but which rider is most likely to make a mistake...jeeze, I hate saying it...Mike and Calvin are my favorite jockey's...have been for a long time, so this is a toughie...but I think Calvin would be more likely to make a mistake...on the other hand...IMO, neither of them is gonna screw up...not in this race:)

Bailey and Cigar...I have still not forgiven Bailey for letting himself get into a speed duel with Siphon...now that was a huge mistake:mad:

And Mike went to the Pat Day School of Riding, so I wouldn't count on him getting the timing perfect.

[GaryG]

Borel certainly has the tougher of the 2 mounts to handle.......I just don't have the confidence that Calvin won't get squirrelly when (and if) the pace heats up like in the Woodward. I really thought they would change riders, but apparently not. That would make Jackson and Asmussen unpopular, but there is a lot of money on the line. I'd rather see Gomez on her.

[joanied]

And Mike went to the Pat Day School of Riding, so I wouldn't count on him getting the timing perfect.

UGH...don't say that :D Actually, IMO, it's harder to ride a stone cold closer than one that can rate.

[Hanover1]

They are both gonna be ratin...just on opposite ends of the race...I see Borels potential for mistake as a more costly one. Zen is such a huge closer that any miniscule mistake could be overcome by her tremendous stride, but then I guess no mistake is perceived at that point........If Zen wins, then we assume she moved at the right time, and if Calvin loses he was either outran or misjudged the pace....wich one is it?

[Buckeye]

How then did Cigar lose to Alphabet Soup? Great horses win speed duels. Cigar was a great horse until he wasn't anymore. It happens. The reason he didn't win the Pacific Classic 1996 was his time had passed. He "couldn't find"

[letswastemoney]

How then did Cigar lose to Alphabet Soup? Great horses win speed duels. Cigar was a great horse until he wasn't anymore. It happens. The reason he didn't win the Pacific Classic 1996 was his time had passed. He "couldn't find"
So Seattle Slew wasn't a great horse anymore when he lost to Exceller?

Not even great horses are perfect.

[Buckeye]

It's a pattern of vulnerability. Cigar was ripe to be picked. He lost a step or two and the reason he lost the Pacific Classic was not the speed duel. Subsequently Alphabet Soup confirmed that. Nobody is perfect true. But Cigar was on the downgrade in the Pacific Classic unbeknownest to most.

[PhantomOnTour]

I posed this question in another thread (a sub-thread if you will)about Calvin getting antsy in the lane or trying to bust it open too soon (like Real Quiet and Smarty Jones). I cited his ride on Street Sense in the Preakness when he looked over his shoulder at the onrushing Curlin, and lost by a nose. He didn't ride too well on Mine That Bird in the Belmont either.

The response was almost overwhelming that Mike Smith ain't no great shakes either, and he's just as likely to blow it as Calvin is. I am only exposed to Smith on big days as I don't play Cali, but those that do and took the time to post informed me that Smith is fallible as well.

My hope is that this race is won and lost by the girls, not the boys on their backs.

[Hanover1]

I posed this question in another thread (a sub-thread if you will)about Calvin getting antsy in the lane or trying to bust it open too soon (like Real Quiet and Smarty Jones). I cited his ride on Street Sense in the Preakness when he looked over his shoulder at the onrushing Curlin, and lost by a nose. He didn't ride too well on Mine That Bird in the Belmont either.

The response was almost overwhelming that Mike Smith ain't no great shakes either, and he's just as likely to blow it as Calvin is. I am only exposed to Smith on big days as I don't play Cali, but those that do and took the time to post informed me that Smith is fallible as well.

My hope is that this race is won and lost by the girls, not the boys on their backs.
Dimes to dollars, whoever loses, the jock is gonna take the heat.......

[Robert Goren]

He didn't ride too well on Mine That Bird in the Belmont either.I was beginning to think I was the only one who thought this. A rail hugging rider swings out off the rail on a day that the rail was golden letting the winner go up there. It made no sense.:bang:

[PaceAdvantage]

I think it's going to take a lot of "bonehead" from Calvin to screw it up that badly for Rachel.

If she returns anywhere near the way it's said she looks these days, I honestly don't see Zenyatta beating Rachel...and I say this partly because this will be Zenyatta's first race over dirt after being on poly exclusively for two years now.

Her only other trip over dirt came in her fourth career start, when she wasn't all that "ingrained" in the AWS yet...something tells me this might be a factor.

Rachel is a much more forgiving horse to ride than Zenyatta, and even more so that this race is over dirt and not AWS.

Bottom line: Smith is more likely to make a mistake, by far.

[Kimsus]

I agree with this...Mike needs to have his timing perfect, Calvin needs to really think as soon as the gate opens...
I know that Calvin is outstanding at Oaklawn...and I guess that gives him a slight edge...but which rider is most likely to make a mistake...jeeze, I hate saying it...Mike and Calvin are my favorite jockey's...have been for a long time, so this is a toughie...but I think Calvin would be more likely to make a mistake...on the other hand...IMO, neither of them is gonna screw up...not in this race:)

Bailey and Cigar...I have still not forgiven Bailey for letting himself get into a speed duel with Siphon...now that was a huge mistake:mad:

It was more a case of Nakatani's race riding tactics on Dramatic Gold than Bailey in my opinion, I think there's a tape on youtube that Mott said as much in the post race analysis. Basically the premise was Nakatani had no inclinations of winning the race as to just making sure Cigar lost. The replay certainly makes a strong case for this assertion.

[joanied]

It's a pattern of vulnerability. Cigar was ripe to be picked. He lost a step or two and the reason he lost the Pacific Classic was not the speed duel. Subsequently Alphabet Soup confirmed that. Nobody is perfect true. But Cigar was on the downgrade in the Pacific Classic unbeknownest to most.

Cigar may have been on the way down for the Classic...but no one will convince me that it wasn't Bailey's fault he lost the PC.

[joanied]

I do agree that whichever mare is beat, her rider will take the heat... on March 13th, we'll see how cool both Calvin & Mike will be...afterall, the pressure is really on for the 'preps'...they both must win.

[Kimsus]

Bill Mott Discusses Cigar's losing the PC. God I am good..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgZ-xUSj5O8

[Kimsus]

It's a pattern of vulnerability. Cigar was ripe to be picked. He lost a step or two and the reason he lost the Pacific Classic was not the speed duel. Subsequently Alphabet Soup confirmed that. Nobody is perfect true. But Cigar was on the downgrade in the Pacific Classic unbeknownest to most.

Not that I am disagreeing that Cigar of 96 wasn't the same Cigar of 95 and Not that I am making excuses for Cigar, but he was hung 5 wide on the final turn that day at Woodbine when the track showed an extreme inside bias and still only lost by a neck. Alphabet Soup being one horse inside of Cigar, didn't outfoot him one inch down the stretch if you watch the replay, most notably it was the trip that did him in. But as Bailey said after the race, you play the hand you are dealt, and he was dealt a disadvantageous post for the Classic in 96.

[tzipi]

It's a pattern of vulnerability. Cigar was ripe to be picked. He lost a step or two and the reason he lost the Pacific Classic was not the speed duel. Subsequently Alphabet Soup confirmed that. Nobody is perfect true. But Cigar was on the downgrade in the Pacific Classic unbeknownest to most.

That speed duel killed my man Cigar. There was no reason to go chase Siphon like that through those fractions. They put him in as a rabbit and he finished up the track. Cigar whipped the rest of the field after running fast early on. I don't think he was lost a step. He slows down and lays off the rabbit and those fractions, Dare and Go chases home Cigar in second IMO.

[Ejmenz]

Whoever said there is no female who can make RA go fast enough early.

Is exactly right.

Unless someone is spotted to do just that.

Remember when Woody used Forty Niner(last) to beat up Winning Colors(3rd) in the Preakness.

Who would be willing to finish last in order to push Rachel?

Without that rabbit, at 1 1/8, on dirt, yikes! Zenyatta will need a rematch at 1 1/4, throw some boys in, keep it on dirt.

There might be a race like that later this year, and Todd might throw in a little colt just for fun.

[GaryG]

Rachel is not vulnerable to a rabbit unless Calvin freaks out again. I think his instructions will be clear on that. She rates kindly.

[joanied]

Rachel is not vulnerable to a rabbit unless Calvin freaks out again. I think his instructions will be clear on that. She rates kindly.

That is my worry...that Calvin gets so stressed out that he freaks...and I wouldn't doubt a rabbit getting tossed into the field.

[statik27]

I don't think you have to worry about either one of these jocks. Borel has always done well at oaklawn and Smith has won 5 apple blossoms. It'll come down to the mares.

[joanied]

I don't think you have to worry about either one of these jocks. Borel has always done well at oaklawn and Smith has won 5 apple blossoms. It'll come down to the mares.

That's what I like...someone even more positive tha I am :ThmbUp: ...I didn't realize that Mikey has won 5...in fact...I beleive I'll quit worrying about which one might make a mistake, and allow my faith in both rule my head.
Thanks:jump: ...I needed that:faint:

[Dahoss9698]

That speed duel killed my man Cigar. There was no reason to go chase Siphon like that through those fractions. They put him in as a rabbit and he finished up the track. Cigar whipped the rest of the field after running fast early on. I don't think he was lost a step. He slows down and lays off the rabbit and those fractions, Dare and Go chases home Cigar in second IMO.

I don't know if I necessarily agree Siphon was put in the race as a rabbit. He was coming off wins in the Mervyn LeRoy and Hollywood Gold Cup (Dare and Go was 5th in the race).