Who else might be in the Apple Blossom?

[FenceBored]

Back in the PETA topic, somebody made the "but this isn't a match race"! comment..........

.........all I can say is, you sure can't tell that, by reading the threads about RA/Zen here. :(

Well, WT, there's a good reason for that. We don't know who else will be there, or might be invited.

There have only been 2 Graded routes for older females this year, both at Santa Anita. The winner of the last one (St Trinians) is not going to run on dirt anytime in the near future. Striking Dancer (winner of the La Canada) is a turf horse (broker her maiden on CD's turf course at 2) who's adapting to synthetics. Will they want to run her on dirt?

Beyond that, I think we look back to the BC Ladies Classic field.

Careless Jewel - Possible - 2 works at Palm Meadows this year (last 2/21)
Cocoa Beach - Retired
Lethal Heat - Retired
Life is Sweet - Dubai World Cup
Mushka - Doubtful - Turf runner with synthetic moonlight
Music Note - Retired
Proviso (GB) - Doubtful - Turf/synth
Rainbow View - ? - Is she even in NA right now?


Let's expand to G1 winners from last year (3yo and 3up).

Flashing - Retired
Funny Moon - unraced since Alabama - 4 works this year at Payson
Gabby's Golden Gal - ? - Will they keep her at sprint distances, or be willing to try a route again
Hooh Why - unraced since Selene Stakes late Sept. - 1 work at Tampa
Icon Project - Retired
Santa Teresita - unraced since Fleur De Lis last June - no works
Seattle Smooth - problems last summer put her on the shelf - no works
Seventh Street - ? - defending champ of AB - no works this year
Stardom Bound - Oy
Swift Temper - Retired

Maybe we can add Funny Moon and GGG to the mix. I don't think Hooh Why will want to play on dirt (she skipped the Oaks last year to run for a 50k purse on poly at Arlington the next day).

Where does this leave us?

Careless Jewel ?
Funny Moon ?
Gabby's Golden Gal ?
Rachel Alexandra
Zenyatta

Who else is a legit invite?

[miesque]

This is a very good question and one of the reasons I am currently in the slim minority on here who thinks there will not be a full field, unless they are just going to throw a bunch of glorified claimers/bottom level allowance horses in to beef up the numbers (which I would hope they wouldn't because that would be pretty damn tacky in my view). The connections of St. Trinians have already gone on record saying they are not going to the Apple Blossom after the Big Cap and I can't think of anyone from the West Coast who would be heading out there except I could maybe see Barry Abrams sending a filly like Pretty Unusual. Exactly who is going to get invites let alone show up?

I have to add that this is exactly why I think it was a mistake to put this sort of money on a Invitational resticted to Fillies and Mares and not an open company Invitational. Its pretty much impossible to come up with what I would consider a real competitive field of decent size.

[Moyers Pond]

This is a very good question and one of the reasons I am currently in the slim minority on here who thinks there will not be a full field, unless they are just going to throw a bunch of glorified claimers/bottom level allowance horses in to beef up the numbers (which I would hope they wouldn't because that would be pretty damn tacky in my view). The connections of St. Trinians have already gone on record saying they are not going to the Apple Blossom after the Big Cap and I can't think of anyone from the West Coast who would be heading out there except I could maybe see Barry Abrams sending a filly like Pretty Unusual. Exactly who is going to get invites let alone show up?

I believe you will see Shug's Persistently in there along with Ribaudo's Qualia. Nothing special but they are stakes caliber horses. Persistently will like run in the back with Zenyatta and Qualia will likely cause problems for Rachel on the front. Qualia is not going to be easy to get by. Persistently and Qualia are solid horses that probably can't win, but will fight it out for a $500K third check.

There will be at least 10 horses in the gate, and probably 5 of them will be glorified claimers.

If the field gets, Zenyatta, Rachel, Careless Jewel, Persistently, and Qualia, then the

[stu]

How about Bambera (VEN)?

With a record of 18: 16 1 0 and $900K+ in earnings, it worth considering this multiple group 1 winner despite where she has been running.

[FenceBored]

How about Bambera (VEN)?

With a record of 18: 16 1 0 and $900K+ in earnings, it worth considering this multiple group 1 winner despite where she has been running.

Might not be a bad addition on paper (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorseInfo.cfm?refno=8441828&registry=T).

[Moyers Pond]

Here is a list

Persistently
Qualia
Justwhistledixie
Casonova Move
Jessica is Back
Unrivaled Belle
Sweet Repent (she is good enough to win if things fall her way, she is improving and could easily put up a 110 beyer on her best effort)

[FenceBored]

I believe you will see Shug's Persistently in there along with Ribaudo's Qualia. Nothing special but they are stakes caliber horses. Persistently will like run in the back with Zenyatta and Qualia will likely cause problems for Rachel on the front. Qualia is not going to be easy to get by. Persistently and Qualia are solid horses that probably can't win, but will fight it out for a $500K third check.

There will be at least 10 horses in the gate, and probably 5 of them will be glorified claimers.

If the field gets, Zenyatta, Rachel, Careless Jewel, Persistently, and Qualia, then the

You expect Charlie Cella to extend an invititation to a $5m race to a girl (Persistently) who's just ran 3rd in a OCNW2$X at Gulfstream? :eek:

Qualia, the winner of the aforementioned OCNW2$X, may or may not be an up-and-comer, but I doubt she'll get an invite either.

[Moyers Pond]

You expect Charlie Cella to extend an invititation to a $5m race to a girl (Persistently) who's just ran 3rd in a OCNW2$X at Gulfstream? :eek:

Qualia, the winner of the aforementioned OCNW2$X, may or may not be an up-and-comer, but I doubt she'll get an invite either.

Of course. He has to by default. Last I checked Persistently is placed in a grade 1 and a grade 2 at Belmont.

As for Qualia, she is a no brainer. Probably one of the top 5 fillies and mares in the country right now, although that is not saying much.

Try coming up with a list of 10 fillies/mares that are in training that don't include these 2.

[jballscalls]

St. Trinians?

[miesque]

St. Trinians?

Only if her connections do a 180, it seems pretty clear they have ruled it out.





Even if St Trinians runs well in the Big 'Cap, a start against Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra in the $5 million Apple Blossom Invitational at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark., on April 9 is not an option for a horse who is seven for 10 on synthetics with two thirds. The Apple Blossom, which will carry its huge purse only if Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra start, is run on a traditional dirt surface. "We're going to keep her on synthetic," Mitchell said.



Read more: http://www.pasadenastarnews.com/sports/ci_14429064#ixzz0gSslXE50

[Moyers Pond]

St. Trinians?

She is staying home, but they really don't want her there anyway. She is 100 percent capable of ruining the party for the top 2 if she takes to the dirt. Super talent.

[Dahoss9698]

I've heard it all now. Qualia will likely cause problems for Rachel and will not be easy to get by? I wish there was a white flag emoticon.

[cj]

She is staying home, but they really don't want her there anyway. She is 100 percent capable of ruining the party for the top 2 if she takes to the dirt. Super talent.

I agree. RA and Z have to be at least 80-85% to beat her.

[46zilzal]

The two big females could BOTH get beat as it has happened before several times when these "supposed" match races within a race come to fruition

[Moyers Pond]

I've heard it all now. Qualia will likely cause problems for Rachel and will not be easy to get by? I wish there was a white flag emoticon.

Yes, there is this thing called a pace factor and a speedy filly/mare on the lead is not what Rachel Alexandra wants in the field.

But heh, were we really to expect you to understand anything about how important pace is in determining the outcome of a race. :lol:

[the little guy]

I've heard it all now. Qualia will likely cause problems for Rachel and will not be easy to get by? I wish there was a white flag emoticon.


The gift that keeps on giving.

[cj]

Yes, there is this thing called a pace factor and a speedy filly/mare on the lead is not what Rachel Alexandra wants in the field.

But heh, were we really to expect you to understand anything about how important pace is in determining the outcome of a race. :lol:

Speedy filly? The same one that just won with an 85 Beyer while blazing the opening quarter in 25? A whole bunch of horses of her caliber tried Rachel last year and they all lost by a mere 30 lengths or so.

[johnhannibalsmith]

The two big females could BOTH get beat as it has happened before several times when these "supposed" match races within a race come to fruition

Thank you Sherlock.

[Moyers Pond]

Speedy filly? The same one that just won with an 85 Beyer while blazing the opening quarter in 25? A whole bunch of horses of her caliber tried Rachel last year and they all lost by a mere 30 lengths or so.

It doesn't matter where they finish. It is a matter of how quick of a pace they set for Zenyatta. If Rachel is alone on the lead they can't catch her going 9f, but if she has to pull another Woodward type race, Zenyatta, who is a little more talented than Macho Again (LOL), will just mow her down.

Qualia would definitely for the pace in there. I don't think they have any intention of trying to rate here as much as they did in the last try.

[cj]

It doesn't matter where they finish. It is a matter of how quick of a pace they set for Zenyatta. If Rachel is alone on the lead they can't catch her going 9f, but if she has to pull another Woodward type race, Zenyatta, who is a little more talented than Macho Again (LOL), will just mow her down.

Qualia would definitely for the pace in there. I don't think they have any intention of trying to rate here as much as they did in the last try.

You think Rachel would "duel" with her? Come on, not gonna happen. She is able to lay off the pace if necessary. In this case, I think Qualia may as well be invisible for all she would matter to the race. I also don't think she will show up anyway.

[Moyers Pond]

You think Rachel would "duel" with her? Come on, not gonna happen. She is able to lay off the pace if necessary. In this case, I think Qualia may as well be invisible for all she would matter to the race. I also don't think she will show up anyway.

She doesn't need to dual with her, she just needs to force a quicker pace and ensure Rachel doesn't have an easy lead.

She will show up. You get $100K just for getting in the gate, no matter where you finish.

[the little guy]

The likelihood of Qualia going to Oaklawn is very slim.

The likelihood of her being any factor whatsoever is even slimmer.

[Dahoss9698]

Yes, there is this thing called a pace factor and a speedy filly/mare on the lead is not what Rachel Alexandra wants in the field.

But heh, were we really to expect you to understand anything about how important pace is in determining the outcome of a race. :lol:

Yeah, Rachel really seemed to have a problem rating off other speedy horses in the Mother Goose and Haskell.

I wish you bet. I really do. It would humble you to have to put your money on your horrendous opinions. Of that I have no doubt.

[Dahoss9698]

She will show up. You get $100K just for getting in the gate, no matter where you finish.

Here's the funny thing about this. A few weeks ago you were proclaiming a 5 horse field at most. When myself and others let you in on what you'd get just for finishing 5th in the race, not to mention that everyone in the race gets 100k, you changed your tune.

Lesson to be learned. Post less and read more. You might actually learn a bit. At the very least you wouldn't come across as so clueless.

[Moyers Pond]

Here's the funny thing about this. A few weeks ago you were proclaiming a 5 horse field at most. When myself and others let you in on what you'd get just for finishing 5th in the race, not to mention that everyone in the race gets 100k, you changed your tune.

Lesson to be learned. Post less and read more. You might actually learn a bit. At the very least you wouldn't come across as so clueless.

Coming from the guy with over 1000 posts. :D

Let me guess, you work for NYRA and you get paid $100K a year to monitor message boards.

[Moyers Pond]

Yeah, Rachel really seemed to have a problem rating off other speedy horses in the Mother Goose and Haskell.

I wish you bet. I really do. It would humble you to have to put your money on your horrendous opinions. Of that I have no doubt.

You wish I bet. Well I guess that $750 I got back for my $100AB on Discreetly Mine this weekend was monopoly money. Tell that to twinspires.com.

I bet over $22K last year, and yes I lost almost $2k on the year, but we can't all be like you who probably won $500K in monopoly money.:D

Let me guess, your big investment is playing in free fantasy horse games.

[Dahoss9698]

Coming from the guy with over 1000 posts. :D

Let me guess, you work for NYRA and you get paid $100K a year to monitor message boards.

I notice you don't dispute what I'm saying. How could you? Just like you won't go near my post in the Christine Daae thread.

[WinterTriangle]

There will be no shortage of other horses in this race, as 3rd, 4th and even 5th money is more than most G1's pay. Wondering how many of these are working, or can be working soon: fillies that were in the Mazzarine Stakes at Woodbine (only 7F I know), or Tempted Stakes, Pochahontas, Fantasy, Miss Grillo, Chilukki, and SilverbulletDay stakes? And some who have raced at Oaklawn like Taptam, Euphony, Payton D' Oro? What about Proviso and Mushka?

I could see some of those being entered given the $$, just don't have time to follow up and see where each one is right now.

[WinterTriangle]

I wish they were allowing 12 entries. That way, if any scratches, we have a nice full field.

It is very possible we could get one or two who could press the pace and tire Rachel. IF there are horses who are really pressing Rachel, and Mike does what I expect him to do which is keep Zenyatta a tad closer to the pace in this one, when he shakes the reigns, Z will barrel past every horse in that race. (Sorry, but that's the way I see it working out "IF" Rachel gets a bullseye on her) I only say this because it seems *easier* to put a bullseye on her since she will be toward the front. Zenyatta coming from the clouds ---- a little harder to put a bullseye on??

I mean, "what if" this turns out like the Woodward, and Rachel runs 6F in 1:10.....except the strong closer is NOT Macho Again, but a stronger closer with a high cruising speed?

Tell me what's right or wrong with this scenario. :) (no insults please)

[Dahoss9698]

There will be no shortage of other horses in this race, as 3rd, 4th and even 5th money is more than most G1's pay. Wondering how many of these are working, or can be working soon: fillies that were in the Mazzarine Stakes at Woodbine (only 7F I know), or Tempted Stakes, Pochahontas, Fantasy, Miss Grillo, Chilukki, and SilverbulletDay stakes? And some who have raced at Oaklawn like Taptam, Euphony, Payton D' Oro? What about Proviso and Mushka?



The race is for 4 year olds and up. So the horses that were in the Mazarine, Tempted, Pocahontas and Miss Grillo aren't eligible as those races are for 2 year olds. The horses that were in those races last year are only 3 this year. The Fantasy is for 3 year old fillies and I believe is being run the same weekend as the Apple Blossom and the Silverbulletday is also for 3 year old fillies.

I'm really curious where the horses are going to come from, but I do think we'll see a full field.

[WinterTriangle]

The race is for 4 year olds and up. So the horses that were in the Mazarine, Tempted, Pocahontas and Miss Grillo aren't eligible as those races are for 2 year olds. The horses that were in those races last year are only 3 this year. The Fantasy is for 3 year old fillies and I believe is being run the same weekend as the Apple Blossom and the Silverbulletday is also for 3 year old fillies.

Thanks Dahoss.

Names and ages start running together for me.....I often wonder how people do so well in really "staying on top of things".....obviously, much better memory than me.

I am always having to go back and look stuff up.

[joanied]

The two big females could BOTH get beat as it has happened before several times when these "supposed" match races within a race come to fruition

Zilly...you are ever the optimist:faint:

[joanied]

I wish they were allowing 12 entries. That way, if any scratches, we have a nice full field.

It is very possible we could get one or two who could press the pace and tire Rachel. IF there are horses who are really pressing Rachel, and Mike does what I expect him to do which is keep Zenyatta a tad closer to the pace in this one, when he shakes the reigns, Z will barrel past every horse in that race. (Sorry, but that's the way I see it working out "IF" Rachel gets a bullseye on her) I only say this because it seems *easier* to put a bullseye on her since she will be toward the front. Zenyatta coming from the clouds ---- a little harder to put a bullseye on??

I mean, "what if" this turns out like the Woodward, and Rachel runs 6F in 1:10.....except the strong closer is NOT Macho Again, but a stronger closer with a high cruising speed?

Tell me what's right or wrong with this scenario. :) (no insults please)

Winter T...there are no rights or wrongs in your assment...something like that could very well play out. I beleive the pace is going to be swift, regardless of who takes the lead...and I also beleive Mike will have Zenyatta closer than usual...he doesn't want Rachel to get that 10 length lead...and mentioning Mike brings up the jockeys...who keeps a cooler head..Mike or Calvin...who has the best finishing style...Mike or Calvin.
IMO, Mike gets the nod here...I love them both, but I feel a lot more confident in Mike than I do Calvin in a race of this importance...I could be wrong.

[Moyers Pond]

I notice you don't dispute what I'm saying. How could you? Just like you won't go near my post in the Christine Daae thread.

I would love to respond to all of your posts but I actually have a life.

[WinterTriangle]

Winter T...there are no rights or wrongs in your assment...something like that could very well play out. I beleive the pace is going to be swift, regardless of who takes the lead...and I also beleive Mike will have Zenyatta closer than usual...he doesn't want Rachel to get that 10 length lead...and mentioning Mike brings up the jockeys...who keeps a cooler head..Mike or Calvin...who has the best finishing style...Mike or Calvin.
IMO, Mike gets the nod here...I love them both, but I feel a lot more confident in Mike than I do Calvin in a race of this importance...I could be wrong.

There are no rights and wrongs in your assessment....about jocks......either. :) Cool head sometimes better.....but sometimes, somebody just goin for it without overthinking wins the day.

Neither horse is a shoe-in.....over each other..... or even for the win!

I was just trying to picture the race in my head as I was daydreaming about it.

[FenceBored]

Winter T...there are no rights or wrongs in your assment...something like that could very well play out. I beleive the pace is going to be swift, regardless of who takes the lead...and I also beleive Mike will have Zenyatta closer than usual...he doesn't want Rachel to get that 10 length lead...and mentioning Mike brings up the jockeys...who keeps a cooler head..Mike or Calvin...who has the best finishing style...Mike or Calvin.
IMO, Mike gets the nod here...I love them both, but I feel a lot more confident in Mike than I do Calvin in a race of this importance...I could be wrong.

Don't forget this is Calvin's winter home (currently 23% winners). There are two tracks where I have the most confidence in his rides: Churchill and Oaklawn.

Keeneland? :faint: The dude is like lead there, especially since the 'change.'

[Dahoss9698]

I would love to respond to all of your posts but I actually have a life.

Again, you won't respond because you can't. That much is obvious. Anytime someone calls you on your nonsense you avoid it. That's cool, I don't blame you. But spare me the "I have a life" stuff.

[Cardus]

Those "filling out the field" -- four or five horses after the big two and a few stakes quality horses shipping in? -- will certainly come from the local population, particularly if they are owned by owners who routinely fill the entry box.

It would be difficult to believe that Cella would not invite local horses in order to distribute some of the purse to people who help to fill the daily cards.

[Dahoss9698]

Try coming up with a list of 10 fillies/mares that are in training that don't include these 2.

Rachel Alexandra
Zenyatta
St Trinians
Sweet Repent
Careless Jewel
Gabby's Golden Gal
Tuscan Evening
Life Is Sweet
Jessica Is Back
Proviso

[FenceBored]

Rachel Alexandra
Zenyatta
St Trinians
Sweet Repent
Careless Jewel
Gabby's Golden Gal
Tuscan Evening
Life Is Sweet
Jessica Is Back
Proviso

Seriously, look at Bambera (VEN) (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorseInfo.cfm?refno=8441828&registry=T) for an international flavor. Just worked a bullet at Calder yesterday (she's in country). 18-16-1-0, and since her second race was a Maiden, one of her two losses was that first race. Has been in 11 G1s, 2 G2s, and a G3, so on paper she fits in with the 'a race of the century' motif.

TEIvG2ifHtE

[Dahoss9698]

Seriously, look at Bambera (VEN) (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorseInfo.cfm?refno=8441828&registry=T) for an international flavor. Just worked a bullet at Calder yesterday (she's in country). 18-16-1-0, and since her second race was a Maiden, one of her two losses was that first race. Has been in 11 G1s, 2 G2s, and a G3, so on paper she fits in with the 'a race of the century' motif.



Thanks, I have never even heard of her.

I just wonder what is behind her in those races. Winning 16 of 18 isn't easy anywhere. I just get reminded of Tomcito, the horse that came over from Peru two years ago with a big reputation and stunk it up. Who's training her here?

[FenceBored]

Thanks, I have never even heard of her.

I just wonder what is behind her in those races. Winning 16 of 18 isn't easy anywhere. I just get reminded of Tomcito, the horse that came over from Peru two years ago with a big reputation and stunk it up. Who's training her here?

Bottom half of this article talks about her. Her trainer is Gustavo Delgado, but I don't know whether he came with her, or they transferred her to someone in the States.

Bambera is Venezuela's version of Rachel Alexandra. ... the 3-year-old filly has won 16 of 18 starts for trainer Gustavo Delgado, among them 10 Grade 1's between seven furlongs and 1 1/2 miles in Venezuela, including the Venezuelan fillies triple crown and two-thirds of the triple crown against colts. (http://www.drf.com/news/article/109693.html)
-- http://www.drf.com/news/article/109693.html (http://www.drf.com/news/article/109693.html)

[sandpit]

Well, she certainly won't have a problem with distance if that race is any indication. These are four sires in the third generation of her pedigree: Northern Dancer, Key to the Mint, Seattle Slew and Affirmed. Her sire, Water Poet is a son of Sadlers Wells. She is one of the better bred horses you will see.

[joanied]

You guys are making me nervous:eek: ...
or, maybe she'll be another Casino Drive :faint:

[OTM Al]

Here's a horse Zenyatta won't face

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55537/japanese-mare-on-all-time-earnings-quest

This Rachel vs Zenyatta thing is wasting a chance for the Zenyatta camp to move her from the ranks of the very good to the ranks of immortal. Zenyatta vs Vodka in a full field in Dubai would be a race worth ten Rachel vs Zenyatta matchups.

[FenceBored]

And here's a video of Bambera's bullet on the 22nd.

rEWo_ddNitY