CALIFORNIA ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN HAS BECOME IRRELEVANT

[andymays]

By Noel Michaels

Noel is chief handicapper for The Race Palace, Long Island's premier OTB wagering facility, and director of Personnel for Nassau OTB. He was a long time racetrack correspondent and online Editor for the Daily Racing Form. He's also the best-selling author of many best-selling handicapping books, including , The Players Angle Almanac, Winning Angles A to Z,The Handicapping Contest Handbook (DRF Press) and Noel's latest: Handicapping The Big Winter Meets.

http://www.nationalracemasters.com/articles.asp?id=2991&action=single&hd_id=01

Excerpt:

Saturday's running of the G3-Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn is not only one of many important prep races leading up to this year's Triple Crown races, but it is also a noteworthy microcosm signifying how the California road to the Triple Crown has grown increasingly irrelevant in the years since the California tracks, and particularly Santa Anita, went over to the synthetic track "dark side" for its Derby preps back in 2008.

[Show Me the Wire]

And three of the top five finishers including the winner hailed from the California tracks. The main reason these horses shipped out was due to weather cancellation, which ironically occurred at Oaklawn too,

So what is the point you are trying to make, apparently they all did well on dirt?

Did you even read the article?

[FenceBored]

And three of the top five finishers including the winner hailed from the California tracks. The main reason these horses shipped out was due to weather cancellation, which ironically occurred at Oaklawn too,

So what is the point you are trying to make, apparently they all did well on dirt?

Did you even read the article?

Apparantly better than you did.

At this rate, it is questionable whether any serious Derby contenders will remain, or should remain, home in Southern California long enough to run in Calirornia's top Derby prep race - the Santa Anita Derby - by the time that race finally rolls around on April 3.
--http://www.nationalracemasters.com/articles.asp?id=2991&action=single&hd_id=01
The point seems to be a growing desire to test 3yos that have run exclusively on synthetics on dirt prior to the first Sat in May.

[Tom]

2009 Derby.
Pioneer of the Nile.
2nd

I Want Revenge - MLF
Destroyed NYRA's triple crown contingent.

Actually, artificial races have sent a few successful horse in the few years they have been in in existence. Street Sense, Hard Spun.....not just California.

I would re-think that bold statement.

[andymays]

Apparantly better than you did.

At this rate, it is questionable whether any serious Derby contenders will remain, or should remain, home in Southern California long enough to run in Calirornia's top Derby prep race - the Santa Anita Derby - by the time that race finally rolls around on April 3.
--http://www.nationalracemasters.com/articles.asp?id=2991&action=single&hd_id=01
The point seems to be a growing desire to test 3yos that have run exclusively on synthetics on dirt prior to the first Sat in May.


That's what I thought the article was about! :ThmbUp:

Without a Breeders Cup race to be run on synthetic and the Triple Crown races being run on dirt less and less horses are going to stay on the synthetic and more and more will be running in dirt preps throughout the year.

The same was true last year when many came out to California or ran on synthetic surfaces prior to last years Breeders Cup.

[Show Me the Wire]

andymays:

Here is the conclusion or summation of the article, "As for this weekend's race in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, Conveyance, Cardiff Giant, and Domination all got the right idea - for now. They've all performed well to date on artificial tracks. Now let's see how they do on dirt."

One can say the gist of the article is whether or not a horse that performs well on the California synthetics can perform well on dirt.

The result, they performed well on the dirt, without having any prior dirt experience.

Also, the article leaves out the fact about the weather cancellation, at Santa Anita, leading to the shipping.

So once again what is your point? How is the road to the KD through California, becoming increasingly irrelevant, based on the Southwest Stakes results and Pioneerof the Nile's second place finish in last year's KD.

Also, you seriously can't blame synthetic race surfaces as a reason for losing to HOY R.A.

[andymays]

This is the title of the article:

CALIFORNIA ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN HAS BECOME IRRELEVANT

Less California horses are going to prep on synthetic.

[Hanover1]

Considering he has east coast connections, what should he have said?? Seems he was talking to be talking ala filling up empty space with comments not backed up by anything more that personal assumptions.......

[Hanover1]

Cant help but harken to the comment by Lukas some time ago: "A good horse will run on anything".

[Moyers Pond]

Who is this clown, some OTB in NY guy. :D

I guess he knows more than Bob Baffert.

Horses run well on dirt if they like it and don't if they don't like it. It is that simple.

Last I checked the winner of the KY Derby last year and the 2nd place horse were both West Coast horses that had raced multiple times on synthetics. And this year's KY Derby top 1 or 2 on every list is also out in CA.

But hey, who am I to argue with some LI OTB joker. He probably gets paid $200K a year to pick up trash in the OTB's.

I wouldn't be shocked if he had a HOY vote. :lol:

[Dahoss9698]

Yeah, Mine That Bird's connections thought so much of prepping on synthetic that they shipped to Sunland Park to run instead of prepping at Santa Anita.

[andymays]

Who is this clown, some OTB in NY guy. :D

:

I don't know the guy but he lists the stuff he's done as far as horse racing goes.

Noel is chief handicapper for The Race Palace, Long Island's premier OTB wagering facility, and director of Personnel for Nassau OTB. He was a long time racetrack correspondent and online Editor for the Daily Racing Form. He's also the best-selling author of many best-selling handicapping books, including , The Players Angle Almanac, Winning Angles A to Z,The Handicapping Contest Handbook (DRF Press) and Noel's latest: Handicapping The Big Winter Meets.

[PhantomOnTour]

2009 Derby.
Pioneer of the Nile.
2nd

I Want Revenge - MLF
Destroyed NYRA's triple crown contingent.

Actually, artificial races have sent a few successful horse in the few years they have been in in existence. Street Sense, Hard Spun.....not just California.

I would re-think that bold statement.
Thank you Tom!
Fatal Bullet ran a very nice 2nd in the BC Sprint to Midnite Lute. Didn't both prep on poly? I know Bullet did.
I understand connections wanting to test their colt on dirt before the Derby (and that is the topic of the thread-sorry for the BC drift)because it's such a huge race, but we've all seen aws-dirt improvements.
Tossing Pioneer last year because he hadnt run on dirt cost me the back end of the Derby exacta.
Tossing Mine That Bird cuz he was a non contending chump from a New Mexico track cost me the front end of the Derby exacta ;)

[exiles]

Cant help but harken to the comment by Lukas some time ago: "A good horse will run on anything".

D WAYNE also said quote ( If you want to cure the horse players,just keep running on this plastic tracks)

[andymays]

I Want Revenge left California because he could handle (not really well) the Hollywood cushion but not Pro Ride. They knew he had a ton of ability. Are some saying they should have stayed at Santa Anita with him?

[andymays]

One of the only things that kept synthetic surfaces relevant was the fact the Breeders Cup was run over it the last two years. Without a Triple Crown race over the junk it makes it less desirable to prep over. If Santa Anita goes back to dirt it will be a fatal blow to the synthetic geeks and to sythetic surfaces in the United States.

There is still a chance they may go to Tapeta. The shady deals are going on as we speak. For me it's kind of like being involved in an inquiry where you know the call is a no brainer but the longer it flashes you start get that sick feeling. We'll see.

[Spalding No!]

So once again what is your point? How is the road to the KD through California, becoming increasingly irrelevant, based on the Southwest Stakes results

Last I checked the Southwest Stakes is run at Oaklawn.

The point is the actual California prep races (Robert Lewis, San Rafael, San Felipe, Sham, Santa Anita Derby) are becoming irrelevant, not necessarily the horses that originate from there.

[andymays]

Last I checked the Southwest Stakes is run at Oaklawn.

The point is the actual California prep races (Robert Lewis, San Rafael, San Felipe, Sham, Santa Anita Derby) are becoming irrelevant, not necessarily the horses that originate from there.


Agree! :ThmbUp:

[Moyers Pond]

Yeah, Mine That Bird's connections thought so much of prepping on synthetic that they shipped to Sunland Park to run instead of prepping at Santa Anita.

Last I checked the winner and the second place horse in the derby last year got their graded earnings running on synthetics.

But heh, why let facts get in the way of you know it all NY clowns. :D

[Dahoss9698]

Last I checked the winner and the second place horse in the derby last year got their graded earnings running on synthetics.

But heh, why let facts get in the way of you know it all NY clowns. :D

What does that have to do with what I posted? Mine That Bird got his graded earnings as a 2 year old running in Canada. He's terrible running on Pro Ride as his BC Juvenile, Goodwood and BC Classic show. Don't you think there was a reason Mine That Bird was prepping at Sunland instaed of Santa Anita?

I think you should have someone read you the article and explain it to you, so you understand what it's saying.

[Dahoss9698]

Thank you Tom!
Fatal Bullet ran a very nice 2nd in the BC Sprint to Midnite Lute. Didn't both prep on poly? I know Bullet did.
I understand connections wanting to test their colt on dirt before the Derby (and that is the topic of the thread-sorry for the BC drift)because it's such a huge race, but we've all seen aws-dirt improvements.
Tossing Pioneer last year because he hadnt run on dirt cost me the back end of the Derby exacta.
Tossing Mine That Bird cuz he was a non contending chump from a New Mexico track cost me the front end of the Derby exacta ;)

I'm not sure I get the correlation between Fatal Bullet (a horse that can't stand up on dirt) and what the article is saying. Fatal Bullet was second in the sprint on Pro Ride, not dirt.

[bisket]

for those who want dirt back at santa anita your best hope is that lookin at lucky loses the derby. if he wins it'll probably be tapita at santa anita...

[johnhannibalsmith]

Am I misunderstanding the point here?

Isn't the issue that the prep races in California are themselves becoming irrelevant, not California based horses? In other words, because the Triple Crown is run on dirt, the horses, regardless of their home base are leaving California to run on traditional dirt - with the obvious byproduct being preps in California that are becoming... irrelevant... as most serious contenders don't see much point in training and preparing for a series of dirt races on polytrack?

[Charlie D]

John

i think you got it nailed.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

Yes but the point is wrong, as others have pointed out with the result from the 2009 Derby especially 2nd placed finisher

[bisket]

last i checked lucky is running a strictly california prep schedule. you don't think maybe some of these are attempting to get away from him. conveyance looks like a speed horse to me. no sense in running him on poly dontcha think.

[PhantomOnTour]

I'm not sure I get the correlation between Fatal Bullet (a horse that can't stand up on dirt) and what the article is saying. Fatal Bullet was second in the sprint on Pro Ride, not dirt.
My mistake...i had confused him with Idiot Proof who got 2nd at Mth to Midnite Lute on dirt, errrrr slop. :blush:

Idiot Proof...that i am not.

[Dahoss9698]

last i checked lucky is running a strictly california prep schedule. you don't think maybe some of these are attempting to get away from him. conveyance looks like a speed horse to me. no sense in running him on poly dontcha think.

I seriously doubt horses are trying to get away from Lookin at Lucky. It's nearly March and he hasn't started yet and has had some minor setbacks already this year. If anything, the time to take him on would be when he first comes back.

The point as Johnhannibalsmith pointed out is the surface is making the races irrelevant. If you're based in California and you think you have a Derby horse, you're forced to leave the state to see if he handles dirt.

[Relwob Owner]

Yes but the point is wrong, as others have pointed out with the result from the 2009 Derby especially 2nd placed finisher


Nice point....also, how many horses have come from the Oaklawn group of Southwest, Rebel, Arkansas Derby group of races....these are much more irrelevant than the California ones, whatever the surface is-I dont have the Derby winner list in front of me but if you take away Smarty Jones, I think that those preps have prepared a ton of duds.....

[bisket]

lucky is following the exact schedule that every baffert entry has followed. except for last year, but there were reasons nile raced in all those preps last year.

[cj]

Yes but the point is wrong, as others have pointed out with the result from the 2009 Derby especially 2nd placed finisher

HE was a distant second. In most years horses beaten 7 lengths finish 12th.

[Dahoss9698]

Nice point....also, how many horses have come from the Oaklawn group of Southwest, Rebel, Arkansas Derby group of races....these are much more irrelevant than the California ones, whatever the surface is-I dont have the Derby winner list in front of me but if you take away Smarty Jones, I think that those preps have prepared a ton of duds.....

Curlin, Lawyer Ron and Afleet Alex might disagree with the dud part. None of them won the Derby, but they won 3 triple crown races combined and a hand full of eclipse awards. I think a strong case can be made that these races are the most relevant in all of the preps when looking at 3 year old racing for the year.

[Dahoss9698]

lucky is following the exact schedule that every baffert entry has followed. except for last year, but there were reasons nile raced in all those preps last year.

So Silver Charm, Indian Charlie, Real Quiet, etc made no starts until March of their 3 year old year? Not exactly.

[cj]

Nice point....also, how many horses have come from the Oaklawn group of Southwest, Rebel, Arkansas Derby group of races....these are much more irrelevant than the California ones, whatever the surface is-I dont have the Derby winner list in front of me but if you take away Smarty Jones, I think that those preps have prepared a ton of duds.....

Wrong.

Papa Clem and Summer Bird last year. Eight Belles from the filly equivalent the year before. Curlin from 2007. 2006, Lawyer Ron. 2005, Flower Alley and Afleet Alex. 2004, Smarty Jones and Borrego.

Yes, only one Derby Winner, but a few TC race winners and a bunch of horses that went on to win some very, very nice races.

[Dahoss9698]

Wrong.

Papa Clem and Summer Bird last year. Eight Belles from the filly equivalent the year before. Curlin from 2007. 2006, Lawyer Ron. 2005, Flower Alley and Afleet Alex. 2004, Smarty Jones and Borrego.

Yes, only one Derby Winner, but a few TC race winners and a bunch of horses that went on to win some very, very nice races.

I forgot about Summer Bird and Eight Belles. I think Oaklawn not only does it right with the spacing of the races but with the distance build up as well. Gulfstream did it well before they reconfigured the track.

[Relwob Owner]

Wrong.

Papa Clem and Summer Bird last year. Eight Belles from the filly equivalent the year before. Curlin from 2007. 2006, Lawyer Ron. 2005, Flower Alley and Afleet Alex. 2004, Smarty Jones and Borrego.

Yes, only one Derby Winner, but a few TC race winners and a bunch of horses that went on to win some very, very nice races.


The thread is about Cali horses and preps not being relevant and my point was that the Oaklawn series hasnt produced that many winners and that isnt mentioned nearly as much....


I may not have been clear but I am talking winners(in my post, this was clear, as I said "Derby winners"), just like those who rip on California and their preps seem to forget POTN got second a year ago....
My post was pretty clearly referring to the Oaklawn race series and how they lead up to the Derby and Triple Crown and "duds" referred to the Triple Crown performances....Curlin and Afleet Alex performed well but all of your other examples are wrong, as they relate to Triple Crown performance....


Borrego? 10th Derby and 7th Preakness
Flower Alley? 9th Derby, no more Triple Crown races
Lawyer Ron-12th Derby

[Hanover1]

D WAYNE also said quote ( If you want to cure the horse players,just keep running on this plastic tracks)
His quote was not in the context of plasic vs dirt, but rather an observation that many horsemen subscribe to, and that is that a good horse can run on anything, including 3 shoes. The comment was made when Big Brown failed in the Belmont and some folks suggested that a loose/sprung shoe was a factor, and nothing more. I have raced them barefoot, so I agree in that regard.

[Relwob Owner]

Curlin, Lawyer Ron and Afleet Alex might disagree with the dud part. None of them won the Derby, but they won 3 triple crown races combined and a hand full of eclipse awards. I think a strong case can be made that these races are the most relevant in all of the preps when looking at 3 year old racing for the year.



I meant Derby and Triple Crown duds......

[Dahoss9698]

I meant Derby and Triple Crown duds......

I think recently Oaklawn has produced as many if not more winners of TC races than California has. In the last 5 years it's not even close.

[Relwob Owner]

I think recently Oaklawn has produced as many if not more winners of TC races than California has. In the last 5 years it's not even close.


One thing that kind of drives me nuts is that people wont admit they are wrong on here much....well, I am realizing I am pretty darn wrong here...my bad, I think I developed the perception before Smarty Jones and it stuck....my bad

I will say this, though-looking up the last ten years and the TC winners, it seems like it isnt the synthetics but the California horses in general....

[sandpit]

I meant Derby and Triple Crown duds......

You want duds, when is the last time a horse came out of Louisiana and won the Derby...Grindstone may be the only one in the last 40 years. The column writer should have used that angle, but it wouldn't have fit his anti-synthetic stance.

[Hanover1]

I guess that means Quality Road was a rat as well, since he prepped in a few of the mentioned races.......my observation of him as a Derby favorite was an illusion.

[Tom]

Cant help but harken to the comment by Lukas some time ago: "A good horse will run on anything".
Was he talking about track surfaces or......;):D

Sandpit.....good point. It was just another synth-bashing agenda article, IMHO.

[Dahoss9698]

You want duds, when is the last time a horse came out of Louisiana and won the Derby...Grindstone may be the only one in the last 40 years. The column writer should have used that angle, but it wouldn't have fit his anti-synthetic stance.

Didn't Funny Cide run in the Louisiana Derby before the Wood?

[Relwob Owner]

You want duds, when is the last time a horse came out of Louisiana and won the Derby...Grindstone may be the only one in the last 40 years. The column writer should have used that angle, but it wouldn't have fit his anti-synthetic stance.


The anti-synthetic aspect seems misguided....I was looking at the TC results during my own misguided Oaklawn series theory and the California weakness in terms of wins seems to be well before synthetics---since FuPeg, it has been slim pickins...

[bisket]

So Silver Charm, Indian Charlie, Real Quiet, etc made no starts until March of their 3 year old year? Not exactly.
yup. the cash call and then two preps. one being the santa anita derby.

[bisket]

HE was a distant second. In most years horses beaten 7 lengths finish 12th.
he was closer than all the rest for sure. most of which prepped on the dirt, and the winner earned his graded money on poly.

[Dahoss9698]

yup. the cash call and then two preps. one being the santa anita derby.

Are you just making this stuff up?

Silver Charm and Indian Charlie didn't run in the Cash Call. And all three I mentioned had 3 preps as 3 year olds. It's a nice thing to have a plan and I'm sure Baffert has one at the beginning. But in this game things change daily.

[Hanover1]

Was he talking about track surfaces or......;):D

Sandpit.....good point. It was just another synth-bashing agenda article, IMHO.
Tom= :ThmbUp:

[toussaud]

I just read the DRF.. as someone who follows santa anita daily this is just sad.



2010 big cap


Loup Breton, Dakota Phone, Enriched, High Court Drama, Hold Me Back, Jeranimo, Mast Track, Misremembered, Neko Bay, Palladio, Philatelist, Pick Six, Richard's Kid, Snowmaster, St Trinians, Tiger's Rock, and Unusual Smoke.



2003 Big cap

Milkawee Brew, Conagree, Kudos, Pleasanty Perfect, Piensa Sonando, Trompolino

[Dahoss9698]

I guess that means Quality Road was a rat as well, since he prepped in a few of the mentioned races.......my observation of him as a Derby favorite was an illusion.

I'm just reading through this thread again and am quite confused by this. Quality Road prepped at Gulstream last year. What does this have to do with the article and/or what is being discussed in the thread?

[WinterTriangle]

The result, they performed well on the dirt, without having any prior dirt experience.



Plenty of horses carry form from synth to dirt. Papa Clem. Zenyatta did fine on dirt, too. Well Armed, I Want Revenge, Tiago, Heatseeker (who ran at Oaklawn), Pioneerof the Nile, Midnight Lute, and Midshipman.


It's okay to be against synthetics, but to use it so broadly as an excuse for "everything", in "every" instance, is just silly and starts to show a bias that doesn't stay within reasonable boundaries.

[Deepsix]

Hear hear.

[Dahoss9698]

I'm not sure if people actually read the article or not before commenting. In fact I'm sure some didn't. Nowhere within it does it say horses can't perform on dirt after running on synth.

It's saying, with Santa Anita being a synthetic surface for now, trainers wanting to get a start over the dirt are forced to find another track to run at. This wasn't a problem before when Santa Anita had dirt. Clearly there are horses who were able to thrive once going to dirt, I Want Revenge a noted example. But, would he have been in NY if Santa Anita had dirt? Probably not.

Would the connections of the top 3 finishers of the San Rafael had shipped across country to run in years past? Probably not. But in order to test their horses on dirt they have to. Eventually this will lead to the Santa Anita preps being more watered down, because the horses that actually have a shot in the TC races will be running at other tracks.

[toussaud]

Plenty of horses carry form from synth to dirt. Papa Clem. Zenyatta did fine on dirt, too. Well Armed, I Want Revenge, Tiago, Heatseeker (who ran at Oaklawn), Pioneerof the Nile, Midnight Lute, and Midshipman.


It's okay to be against synthetics, but to use it so broadly as an excuse for "everything", in "every" instance, is just silly and starts to show a bias that doesn't stay within reasonable boundaries.
just good ole fashion common sense post.

[Deepsix]

Now my memory isn't as good as it once was, BUT back when SA was the hard/fast dirt track it was not unusual for potential contenders to ship out of Ca to other venues to get a feel for deeper/less sandy tracks. Seems Churchill was typically a very hard surface while Eastern tracks and Florida tracks had more cushion. Well, then there was Big Sandy.

Just saying that the surfaces of the Triple Crown were varied. Then came the old Keeneland, GP, and Saratoga which were really a contrast in dirt.

[mostpost]

2009 Derby.
Pioneer of the Nile.
2nd

I Want Revenge - MLF
Destroyed NYRA's triple crown contingent.

Actually, artificial races have sent a few successful horse in the few years they have been in in existence. Street Sense, Hard Spun.....not just California.

I would re-think that bold statement.
In the 2009 Breeders Cup not a single race was won by a horse whose previous start was on dirt. There appears to be an obvious advantage to a horse which has been racing on synthetics. BUT, does that mean that the reverse is always true? Maybe it's easier to go from synthetic to dirt than from dirt to synthetic, and the recent poor showing of some California or Keeneland horses in the triple crown is more a function of their ability than of the racing surface. Certainly a number of horses as listed by you and Winter Triangle and others have successsfully made the Syn to dirt switch.
This is speculation, but it may be that "Dirt" horses who did so poorly in the 2009 Breeders Cup would have fared better if the had a few synthetic starts prior to the event. Maybe "experience counts". If any of you data bank guys has that info, I would be interested in knowing my conjecture is right or wrong.

[sandpit]

yep, he ran 5th; I think he was 5th in a race in Florida too...he is a classic example of a horse getting good at the right time in the spring.

[Relwob Owner]

I'm not sure if people actually read the article or not before commenting. In fact I'm sure some didn't. Nowhere within it does it say horses can't perform on dirt after running on synth.

It's saying, with Santa Anita being a synthetic surface for now, trainers wanting to get a start over the dirt are forced to find another track to run at. This wasn't a problem before when Santa Anita had dirt. Clearly there are horses who were able to thrive once going to dirt, I Want Revenge a noted example. But, would he have been in NY if Santa Anita had dirt? Probably not.

Would the connections of the top 3 finishers of the San Rafael had shipped across country to run in years past? Probably not. But in order to test their horses on dirt they have to. Eventually this will lead to the Santa Anita preps being more watered down, because the horses that actually have a shot in the TC races will be running at other tracks.


You are correct......I personally just skimmed it, proving "read thoroughly before you post and then look like a dummy".... the crux of it wasnt solely how synthetic horses do when switching to dirt, but more the idea that trainers will ship away before the California preps, which seems to be right on target.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I'm not sure if people actually read the article or not before commenting.

I'll field this one.

No.

[rastajenk]

The linked piece is based on a pretty small sample size, seems to me. Trainers are just as susceptible to a "herd mentality" as any one else, I guess. If the word in the track kitchen is that you need a dirt prep to do well in the Derby, they're going to look for the dirt preps. When the next SA Derby winner comes along that also takes the Big Derby, momentum may shift back to a poly-to-turf angle, and it's not necessarily so that that will take years to happen.

[Bobzilla]

I would think that many of the thoroughbreds in America who are asked to compete over our main tracks have, by and large, dirt-oriented pedigrees that have been honed for over a century for this purpose. With that in mind it really comes as no surprise to me whenever an animal who has been competing over synthetic surfaces does well when asked to perform over a traditional dirt surface for the first time. My own impression is that different "dirt" performers on an AWS circuit possess varying degrees of tolerance for the surface and reputations can hinge on wherever that level might be. Those reputations might be enhanced once allowed to try a dirt surface. In some cases it might head in the other direction.

I think it's possible that a California trained horse could win the Kentucky Derby while trying a fast dirt track for the first time. But I tend to think also that they still might be at a disadvantage if trying dirt for the first time in this particular event, if not for the change in surface but rather due to the possibility they might be encountering a very fast early pace for the first time and a race shape probably unlike anything they've experienced during their brief career (provided they hadn't had their hoofs put to the fire of a fast early pace out west). Some may not mind but I would think that many might be thrown off of their best effort if the timing and flow is different, especially if lightly raced which most Derby competitors tend to be these days.

[Dahoss9698]

Who is this clown, some OTB in NY guy. :D

I guess he knows more than Bob Baffert.

Horses run well on dirt if they like it and don't if they don't like it. It is that simple.

Last I checked the winner of the KY Derby last year and the 2nd place horse were both West Coast horses that had raced multiple times on synthetics. And this year's KY Derby top 1 or 2 on every list is also out in CA.

But hey, who am I to argue with some LI OTB joker. He probably gets paid $200K a year to pick up trash in the OTB's.

I wouldn't be shocked if he had a HOY vote. :lol:

:lol:

Another spot on opinion.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/110996.html

Lookin At Lucky, the champion 2-year-old colt of 2009, is on course to make his 2010 debut on March 13, but whether he remains at Santa Anita for that day's Grade 2, $150,000 San Felipe Stakes, or heads to Oaklawn Park for the Grade 2, $300,000 Rebel Stakes has yet to be determined, according to trainer Bob Baffert.

Another Baffert 3-year-old is scheduled to leave California for his next race. Tiz Chrome, who was fourth in the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita in his first start around two turns, will head to Aqueduct for the Grade 3, $250,000 Gotham Stakes on March 6.