Discreetly Mine will rise to top of 3yr old class today

[Moyers Pond]

If you have money to play with, this horse is as close to a lock as you will find. Put him on top of Stay Put and Ron the Greek, and use all three in tri's.

Play the 4-9-11 every way you can.

[Tee]

I could see the 2, 6, 10 having a say in the outcome.

[OTM Al]

Discreetly Mine was a strong pick for that race, but Ron the Greek was way over rated. The LeComte was not a good race. This race was ok, but not great. Top of the class is the winner of the Fountain of Youth. He dominated from a terrible post that few win from on that track. Call it redboarding if you want, but I found the exacta call in the Risen Star pretty easy, though that second spot was close.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Nice call.I liked the pedigrees of 3 of them in here.

I actually made a 1% value play on Northern Giant to win/place and a few small exacta boxes with the 2-6-8.I thought a lot of colts could win this race.

Just missed him by a neck for place at 50-1!!Damn!!

[bisket]

don't give eskondeyra bonus points for his post. he was in the 2 path on the clubhouse turn. he was very fortunate that the race fell into his hands as aikenite's jock cut buddy's saint going into the turn; by accident? although it was still an excellant effort from eskondeyra, and he moved to the top of the class.

[WinterTriangle]

Nice call, Moyers.

[Dahoss9698]

don't give eskondeyra bonus points for his post. he was in the 2 path on the clubhouse turn. he was very fortunate that the race fell into his hands as aikenite's jock cut buddy's saint going into the turn; by accident? although it was still an excellant effort from eskondeyra, and he moved to the top of the class.

Lezcano went for a hole that just wasn't there. Garcia on Aikenite did nothing wrong IMO. Don't be surprised to see another rider on Buddy's Saint next time. Wherever he may resurface.

[Willy Wonka]

If you have money to play with, this horse is as close to a lock as you will find. Put him on top of Stay Put and Ron the Greek, and use all three in tri's.

Play the 4-9-11 every way you can.

Well, it got watered down by missing the exotics, but at least you still cashed the winner. I gotta think Tempted to Tapit scared the dickens out of you though Mr. Moyers Pond.

Better Exotics luck in the Louisiana Derby

Willy

[OTM Al]

don't give eskondeyra bonus points for his post. he was in the 2 path on the clubhouse turn. he was very fortunate that the race fell into his hands as aikenite's jock cut buddy's saint going into the turn; by accident? although it was still an excellant effort from eskondeyra, and he moved to the top of the class.

I think you have to. At the mile and an eighth on that track its very hard to win a race from outside the 6 post. He had to gun from the start to get over and yet had a lot still left at the end. Its hard to say what Buddy's Saint would have done today, but I was betting against him as it was his first back. I'd enjoy seeing him do well as we're only going to see two generations of St Liam's offspring, but I'm not ready to say anything definitive about him yet. I think his Remsen was better than the fig that was given, but today's race can say nothing about what he does or doesn't have

[Relwob Owner]

If you have money to play with, this horse is as close to a lock as you will find. Put him on top of Stay Put and Ron the Greek, and use all three in tri's.

Play the 4-9-11 every way you can.




Nice pick, Moyers

[Tom]

I think Buddy's Guy is a huge underlay at any odds. His one big race was a typical Aqu blow out that never translates into anything. Aqu horses early on are throw outs when the real racing starts. BG will not make it to the Derby. I doubt he will win a graded stake again. Maybe a G3 sprint up to 7 furlongs. Cheap speed at Aqu is not enough against good horses.

[WinterTriangle]

I think Buddy's Guy is a huge underlay at any odds. His one big race was a typical Aqu blow out that never translates into anything. Aqu horses early on are throw outs when the real racing starts. BG will not make it to the Derby. I doubt he will win a graded stake again. Maybe a G3 sprint up to 7 furlongs. Cheap speed at Aqu is not enough against good horses.

You mean Buddy's Saint, not Buddy's Guy, right?


Buddy's Saint--He's a dual qualifier. In other words, a model of the American classic horse. With an EFH of 123, around what Blind Luck is.

Not ready to toss him by any means. :) Not saying his pedigree makes him a winner, but as Dr. Roman describes DQs, they are generally rated by pedigree, early maturity and class, which are the cornerstone of classic performance.

I guess I don't get why you have determined he's a "sprinter" as there is nothing in his pedigree to suggest that. Nor is there anything in his pedigree to suggest that he's "cheap speed."

His stamina index is actually larger than his speed index, but they are almost equal, which is actually a very good sign. Enough speed to stay within leaders, and enough stamina to go 1-1/4+

[Robert Goren]

Nice call, Moyers.Ok, I will say what almost everyone is think about Moyers call. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Of course, I really shouldn't talk. There is a lot of days when even that broken clock is right more than me.;)

[PhantomOnTour]

Solid call on Discreetly Mine there Moyers. I dont see him as a Derby contender though. He caught a speed biased FG track today and did what he should have. The top three finishers ran 1-2-3 all the way around. Stay Put came with a nice run while wide vs the bias. Drosselmeyer, no excuse. I thought he would win.

[shhail2]

yeah i also dont understand what that guy was talking about calling buddys saint cheap speed? He may have been overrated as far as the derby futures and talk, but he is bred to run all day and definately isnt cheap speed.

[WinterTriangle]

Ok, I will say what almost everyone is think about Moyers call. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Of course, I really shouldn't talk.

Robert, I dunno how to say this, but I'm on other forums where there is actually a feeling of thinking out loud, and sharing it with people, right or wrong, to put heads together and come up with why's and why-not's. Let people talk you in or out of an idea you have.

To me, if somebody makes a good pick, you high five them.

Sharing insights should be just that......sharing. Instead, many times you don't even wanna share anything here because of the competitive nature of some of the posters, they have to ridicule what you say. Not disagree, but actually ridicule.

Competitiveness has it's place.........when making a wager against other bettors in a pool, you actually get $$ for that.

On this forum, nobody gets paid for being right or loses money for being wrong. It's supposed to be about collaboration.

I experienced that in another topic, where there is a poster who ALWAYS points out my bad picks, yet has never congratulated me on my winning ones. I think that's kinda sad, it gives one the feeling that somebody is *personally* competing with you, which is really kinda........scary.

[magwell]

Discreetly Mine..... kinda reminds me of Spend A Buck his style and breeding. Its like you just don't think he wants 1 1/4 but he kept on running... its going to be interesting. Btw Eskendereya exposed this group behind him today, its starting to look good, and we don't know how good Lucky will be on dirt but he looks like he is the boss out there. Looking good so far, lets hope they stay sound.

[eastie]

he crawled home in almost 7 for the last 1/16....you can x him and the rest of that field. they aren't going anywhere....

[CincyHorseplayer]

I think Buddy's Guy is a huge underlay at any odds. His one big race was a typical Aqu blow out that never translates into anything. Aqu horses early on are throw outs when the real racing starts. BG will not make it to the Derby. I doubt he will win a graded stake again. Maybe a G3 sprint up to 7 furlongs. Cheap speed at Aqu is not enough against good horses.

I remember cashing some nice tickets on that cheap Aqueduct speedster Balto Star!!!

I bet against Eightyfiveinafifty for the same reason I didn't like this horse though,the 1 sprint stretchout off a layoff.

[Tom]

You mean Buddy's Saint, not Buddy's Guy, right?

Ooops. I was watching that Eric Clapton phone commercial where Buddy Guy calls him. Ironic hey say to the real Buddy "Just hanging." :D

[overthehill]

I agree 100%. i thought the 9 got a slightly better trip and look how he finished!

[FantasticDan]

To me, if somebody makes a good pick, you high five them.
Obviously every winning pick is a "good" one, but Discreetly Mine was the 5-2 second choice.. who didn't have him in at least an exotics combo?

[Moyers Pond]

Well, it got watered down by missing the exotics, but at least you still cashed the winner. I gotta think Tempted to Tapit scared the dickens out of you though Mr. Moyers Pond.

Better Exotics luck in the Louisiana Derby

Willy

I lost money on the exotics, but actually could have made money because I bet a $2 exacta with him on top of ALL and missed a 50-1 shot running second. What killed me was the DM-SP-ALL, and DM-RG-ALL Tris I played. I hammered the winner across the board though, so no complaints. Even I get lucky once in a while. Remarkably I now ahead for the year, although that is not that impressive considering we are only 2 months into the year.

[Willy Wonka]

You mean Buddy's Saint, not Buddy's Guy, right?...



Mr Winter Triangle, that poster must have meant Buddy's Saint. But taken in context the confusion is understandable. The interesting thing was that he was "past posting" on the Fountain of Youth. He didn't call Buddy's Guy names until after 10 pm yesterday when the race was long over. If Mr. Poster was as against Buddy Before the race, I didn't read it anywhere. So it appears it is with full Hindsight that he is factoring Buddy's Guy's pinchback on the first turn a non-factor.

Its like handicapping data. It's not all equal. You have to consider the source many times.

Willy

[Tom]

Past posting....you are a riot, Mr Wonka.
You might want to find out what the term really means before you throw it around.

[bisket]

I think you have to. At the mile and an eighth on that track its very hard to win a race from outside the 6 post. He had to gun from the start to get over and yet had a lot still left at the end. Its hard to say what Buddy's Saint would have done today, but I was betting against him as it was his first back. I'd enjoy seeing him do well as we're only going to see two generations of St Liam's offspring, but I'm not ready to say anything definitive about him yet. I think his Remsen was better than the fig that was given, but today's race can say nothing about what he does or doesn't have
al i wasn't posting this like i have an interest in either horse as i didn't wager on any races yeaterday. i was just trying to point out the esky did get a good trip. which you rarely see out of the outside post at gulfstream. i was impressed with his race though, but just don't think it was truly exceptional as its being billed. oh he's in my top three as far as picks for derby day. i'm just not prepared to drape him in roses off that race.
as far as buddy is concerned i don't cross a horse off my list after a race like yesterday. every horse has a bad day. the main thing that i didn't like about his race is how he responded to trouble. i don't like when a horse gets pushed around a little and then just gives up. although that could be his jocks doing. one of the main things i look for in these preps is how does a horse respond to a bad trip because more than likely he's gonna get one the first saturday in may. buddy didn't pass that test. no matter what happens early in the race you want your horse to finish his race in these preps. even if its only for conditioning purposes. this was a wasted race for buddy in that respect.

[kid4rilla]

I remember cashing some nice tickets on that cheap Aqueduct speedster Balto Star!!!

I bet against Eightyfiveinafifty for the same reason I didn't like this horse though,the 1 sprint stretchout off a layoff.


I had the same feeling about Balto Star, cheap speed.

Luckily, before the off of whatever Turfway prep that he one (Lane's End?), I saw an interview with his trainer Pletcher.

Guy asks "What does Balto Star have to do to show up at Churchill Downs on the 1st Sat. in May?"

Pletcher answered "Have a pulse".

Since I had never heard TP say anything like that, I wagered heavy and I think he one at 11-1.

[kid4rilla]

I had the same feeling about Balto Star, cheap speed.

Luckily, before the off of whatever Turfway prep that he one (Lane's End?), I saw an interview with his trainer Pletcher.

Guy asks "What does Balto Star have to do to show up at Churchill Downs on the 1st Sat. in May?"

Pletcher answered "Have a pulse".

Since I had never heard TP say anything like that, I wagered heavy and I think he one at 11-1.

I spell like a 3rd grader.....replace won for one :blush: