Prepared

[nobeyerspls]

I'm prepared. Started at 6:30 this morning with the print version of the form. Read the articles over a first cup of coffee and then handicapped the first half of the GP card. Perfect for a surface handicapper and horizontal player. Lots of turf races as bookends for pick3's. Did the second half and took a break. Now to find where my wagering opponents will go astray. Which false favorites will they overplay? I already have turf longshots that they will overlook.
Now to races two through five in NY. Perfect set-up for the pick four as the best bet in race two is beatable. Might have to go deeper throughout the sequence but it will be worth it. Then it's on to the Tampa turf races and a glance at Oaklawn. Find a race where Nakatani's horse can't win. It will be over bet. Take another break and then on to the FG pick4.
I'll get to my simulcast facility at 12:40 and check race conditions and scratches. My wagering opponents will be buying the simulcast books for the past performances. They'll succumb to the action attraction; handicap, bet, turn page, repeat process all afternoon. I'll listen to them debate about the skills of the various high-profile jockeys, knowing that when my horse is right, the rider is a passenger whose only job is not to fall off.
I'll share some picks with my buddies and take a look at theirs. The seven sweet sisters of success will be in play in a few select races. Let the games begin!

[JustRalph]

for the first time in a few months...... I downloaded a few cards this a.m.

we shall see what .........comes next............

[Charlie D]

Just think if i had access to tv pics and Tote pools i'd be doing what you guys are doing.



Suppose i'll have to make do with Andy, Jason and Eric again :)

[Robert Goren]

May the Horse Racing Gods look kindly on your selections.

[mountainman]

I'm prepared. My wagering opponents will be buying the simulcast books for the past performances.

If those people were your REAL opponents, or bet their money half as foolishly as you think they do, I'd have retired to my mansion next to some scenic golf course years ago. I'm still working, and not a fairway in sight. The public is MUCH wiser en masse than self- proclaimed sharpies care to acknowledge.

[nobeyerspls]

If those people were your REAL opponents, or bet their money half as foolishly as you think they do, I'd have retired to my mansion next to some scenic golf course years ago. I'm still working, and not a fairway in sight. The public is MUCH wiser en masse than self- proclaimed sharpies care to acknowledge.

If the public is so smart, why is it so easy to find false favorites like that 2/5 best bet in the 2nd in NY on Saturday? Then too, why does a 20% rider like JR have an average payout of $5.80. The answer is that the public backs horses for the wrong reasons. As a player of the horizontals I depend on that.
This game is 50% handicapping and 50% ticket construction. At the highest level, a player will make a $20 bet and cash for over $10,000 (no all buttons allowed). How many among your "MUCH wiser public" can pull that off?

[lamboguy]

If the public is so smart, why is it so easy to find false favorites like that 2/5 best bet in the 2nd in NY on Saturday? Then too, why does a 20% rider like JR have an average payout of $5.80. The answer is that the public backs horses for the wrong reasons. As a player of the horizontals I depend on that.
This game is 50% handicapping and 50% ticket construction. At the highest level, a player will make a $20 bet and cash for over $10,000 (no all buttons allowed). How many among your "MUCH wiser public" can pull that off?great work, i am glad you found the way, i must be real dumb, i don't even look at the racing form never mind read sheets. i looked at the sheets years ago, and it was pretty greek to me!

[TrifectaMike]

If the public is so smart, why is it so easy to find false favorites like that 2/5 best bet in the 2nd in NY on Saturday? Then too, why does a 20% rider like JR have an average payout of $5.80. The answer is that the public backs horses for the wrong reasons. As a player of the horizontals I depend on that.
This game is 50% handicapping and 50% ticket construction. At the highest level, a player will make a $20 bet and cash for over $10,000 (no all buttons allowed). How many among your "MUCH wiser public" can pull that off?


How good is the public? Short answer extremely good.

In a mathematicall sense, the public is so good that they rank favorites according to Benfords Law.

The two examples you give in a global sense are trivial and meaningless. A failure and a "LOTTO" win does not constitute evidence of any superiority over the public. Especially when one considers that they too are part of the "collective" we refer to as the "public".

Mike

[nobeyerspls]

How good is the public? Short answer extremely good.

In a mathematicall sense, the public is so good that they rank favorites according to Benfords Law.

The two examples you give in a global sense are trivial and meaningless. A failure and a "LOTTO" win does not constitute evidence of any superiority over the public. Especially when one considers that they too are part of the "collective" we refer to as the "public".

Mike

This is my 54th year at this sport. Over the past twenty years it has been very good to me. I owned horses and bred them and I've been a better than average handicapper for some time.
It is only over the last few years that I've become better at wagering. My strategy is to bet a little to win a lot and I do that using the exotics. I can tell when the public will overbet a horse and, when I know that that horse will not win, the rolling doubles and pick3's will provide returns that are neither trivial nor meaningless. "LOTTO" wins come from random numbers; $10k scores from handicapping techniques learned over a lifetime do not.
In a "global sense" there will be false favorites and live longshots on every card I play. I am grateful to the "public" for making them available.

[lamboguy]

This is my 54th year at this sport. Over the past twenty years it has been very good to me. I owned horses and bred them and I've been a better than average handicapper for some time.
It is only over the last few years that I've become better at wagering. My strategy is to bet a little to win a lot and I do that using the exotics. I can tell when the public will overbet a horse and, when I know that that horse will not win, the rolling doubles and pick3's will provide returns that are neither trivial nor meaningless. "LOTTO" wins come from random numbers; $10k scores from handicapping techniques learned over a lifetime do not.
In a "global sense" there will be false favorites and live longshots on every card I play. I am grateful to the "public" for making them available.
i am at this game about as long as you have been. i have basically done the same things as you have with reguards to breeding running and selling horses, and i still do those things. i find my performance much worse today with a rebate than 30 years without a rebate and only one track in front of my face. i find it great that you have improved thoughout the years and i have regressed. i now find myself running horses all over the continent, for the first time i am sending a slew of horses up to the woodbine meet this year. maybe i am spreading myself out to thin. please clue me in on your secret to sucess so i might be able to improve upon my poor performances recently.

[Robert Goren]

In a "global sense" there will be false favorites and live longshots on every card I play. I am grateful to the "public" for making them available. There are lot more "live" favorites and "no chance" long shots. With takeouts being what they are, it is very hard to beat the public. You can do it with "niche" bets.

[Backstretch Pirate]

I can tell when the public will overbet a horse and, when I know that that horse will not win, the rolling doubles and pick3's will provide returns that are neither trivial nor meaningless.

Most people I talk to about racing are trying to do the exact same thing. hmmm!

[mountainman]

there will be false favorites and live longshots on every card I play. I am grateful to the "public" for making them available.

That's a two way street, sir. The public is equally grateful for your mistakes.

[nobeyerspls]

i am at this game about as long as you have been. i have basically done the same things as you have with reguards to breeding running and selling horses, and i still do those things. i find my performance much worse today with a rebate than 30 years without a rebate and only one track in front of my face. i find it great that you have improved thoughout the years and i have regressed. i now find myself running horses all over the continent, for the first time i am sending a slew of horses up to the woodbine meet this year. maybe i am spreading myself out to thin. please clue me in on your secret to sucess so i might be able to improve upon my poor performances recently.

I don't own horses anymore as my brother and I started a racing/breeding program back when the tax structure was better. I didn't make any money as an owner but I learned a lot. The insider perspective improved my handicapping.

[nobeyerspls]

That's a two way street, sir. The public is equally grateful for your mistakes.

Yes. But if I was wrong about that 2/5 favorite and he won, I would have torn up a $6 pick3 ticket. As it turned out, I cashed for $132. The real return was in the pick4 ($5,467 for $2) which I didn't have. Seems that the street has different lane widths coming and going.

[mountainman]

Yes. But if I was wrong about that 2/5 favorite and he won, I would have torn up a $6 pick3 ticket. As it turned out, I cashed for $132. The real return was in the pick4 ($5,467 for $2) which I didn't have. Seems that the street has different lane widths coming and going.

In your self-aggrandizing eagerness to depict the public as lemmings, you're ignoring the fact that favorites take only a third of the play. That means in lots of races, lots of bettors back longer shots than you do, and stick your money in their pocket when they are right.
Look, I'm sure you're a smart player, but so are 10 million other guys and gals. And I don't see anything particularly unique in your approach. So you can type how much sharper than other players you are until you get carpal tunnel, but the cold truth of our pari mutuel system is that somebody counters every move you make. And that somebody is just as informed as you are.

[DeanT]

In 2010, the "public" is one of the more misused terms in racing, imo. It is estimated that the top 5% bet more than 75% of the dollars. That is certainly not public money in the truest sense of the word, just like it is not "public" money playing options markets or something of that nature.

30 years ago the use of the word fit, but today I would submit it is a complete misnomer.

[mountainman]

In 2010, the "public" is one of the more misused terms in racing, imo. It is estimated that the top 5% bet more than 75% of the dollars. That is certainly not public money in the truest sense of the word, just like it is not "public" money playing options markets or something of that nature.

30 years ago the use of the word fit, but today I would submit it is a complete misnomer.

Not much dumb bunny munny anymore. Not much at all.

[TurfRuler]

I'm prepared. Started at 6:30 this morning with the print version of the form. Read the articles over a first cup of coffee and then handicapped the first half of the GP card. Perfect for a surface handicapper and horizontal player. Lots of turf races as bookends for pick3's. Did the second half and took a break. Now to find where my wagering opponents will go astray. Which false favorites will they overplay? I already have turf longshots that they will overlook.
Now to races two through five in NY. Perfect set-up for the pick four as the best bet in race two is beatable. Might have to go deeper throughout the sequence but it will be worth it. Then it's on to the Tampa turf races and a glance at Oaklawn. Find a race where Nakatani's horse can't win. It will be over bet. Take another break and then on to the FG pick4.
I'll get to my simulcast facility at 12:40 and check race conditions and scratches. My wagering opponents will be buying the simulcast books for the past performances. They'll succumb to the action attraction; handicap, bet, turn page, repeat process all afternoon. I'll listen to them debate about the skills of the various high-profile jockeys, knowing that when my horse is right, the rider is a passenger whose only job is not to fall off.
I'll share some picks with my buddies and take a look at theirs. The seven sweet sisters of success will be in play in a few select races. Let the games begin!

Great yarn you've put together. Not that I'm gullible, but I believe your every word. Although I have to rely on Beyer's, my selection of the numbers have led me to some real positive scores. (Talking about about wagering a little) I haven't wagered a dime in three years, but my results on paper is getting much better. Can't wait until the day that I'm just as prepared as you claim in the story you just told. I can only dream of those big exotic payoff's by wagering a small amount multiple times.

[Charlie D]

Not much dumb bunny munny anymore. Not much at all.



If this is correct would not the % of winning favs be higher and average odds be lower than it currently is???

[mountainman]

If this is correct would not the % of winning favs be higher and average odds be lower than it currently is???

No. That's like saying if football players are really better nowadays, then why is the avg nfl score still 21-14? I look at it as a balance with players getting progressively smarter, but the tote eternally reflecting their differences of opinion.

[mountainman]

If this is correct would not the % of winning favs be higher and average odds be lower than it currently is???

Let me put it this way. Sharp players seek an edge on each other, not merely to pick more winners. I think that explains it better.

[Charlie D]

Mmm

If players are getting smarter then surely % of favs should go up and average odds should be shorter mountainman, afterall there is hardly no dumb money around.

Mmmmmm

[Robert Goren]

I think it has when compared to 40-50 years ago. It may or may not due in part to smarter players. Shorter fields and higher takeout have played a part. But as much as we want to pat ourselves on the back on how smart we are, dumb luck still plays a part in races that are often decided by a few inches after running the better part of a mile. JMO

[DeanT]

Chalk win percentages have gone up and prices have gone down the last several years, even when keeping field size as a control. The only place we ever see win percentages and prices hold somewhat firm are in really huge fields where there is a larger element of chaos.

[46zilzal]

THE absolutely SHARPEST of all players I run into know the OTHER side of the game: WHEN to wager and spend far far less time on handicapping and far far more time evaluating how to make money.

I am learning a lot from them.

[Charlie D]

Several years Dean??

Can you give data Dean


I find this debate interesting because of my experience of Aqueduct, where imho there are ample opportunities to make money.

[DeanT]

There was a thread about it on Pace not long ago Charlie. I am not sure where it is, but there were some numbers posted. I have some on my other computer but am too lazy to go find them..... plus curling is on now, so I am out of commission for a couple hours :)

[DeanT]

I jotted down this from a Ron Tiller post. 8 and ten horse fields over time.

Favorites - 8 horses

Year Starts Wins Win% ROI IV Avg W$
1998 12206 3949 32.35 0.79 2.59 4.91
1999 11792 3864 32.77 0.81 2.62 4.93
2000 11865 3901 32.88 0.81 2.63 4.93
2001 11981 3914 32.67 0.80 2.61 4.90
2002 11646 3839 32.96 0.81 2.64 4.91
2003 11623 3933 33.84 0.82 2.71 4.84
2004 11308 3814 33.73 0.81 2.70 4.82
2005 11406 3808 33.39 0.81 2.67 4.85
2006 11255 3787 33.65 0.81 2.69 4.84
2007 11013 3812 34.61 0.82 2.77 4.76
2008 10601 3667 34.59 0.82 2.77 4.74
2009 7891 2824 35.79 0.83 2.86 4.65

Favorites - 10 Horses

Year Starts Wins Win% ROI IV Avg W$
1998 8916 2675 30.00 0.81 3.00 5.40
1999 9329 2790 29.91 0.81 2.99 5.42
2000 9187 2698 29.37 0.79 2.94 5.35
2001 9276 2871 30.95 0.83 3.10 5.34
2002 10271 3161 30.78 0.82 3.08 5.31
2003 10287 3235 31.45 0.81 3.14 5.18
2004 10029 3121 31.12 0.80 3.11 5.17
2005 8810 2712 30.78 0.81 3.08 5.26
2006 8336 2587 31.03 0.81 3.10 5.20
2007 8409 2627 31.24 0.81 3.12 5.19
2008 8438 2673 31.68 0.82 3.17 5.20
2009 5936 1959 33.00 0.83 3.30 5.05

[Charlie D]

OK Dean, no bother


I wwas reading a thread abut Tampa and i got impression lads liked it and putting 2 and 2 together, if lads like it, it must mean Tampa is good for thier bank balances

[Charlie D]

Thanks dean, so the rise is not a major one really. ie 10% and above and average W$ change is minor

[DeanT]

Charlie,

That is very significant from long ago. In Quirin's breakthrough book around 1980, he tabled chalk at historically a flat line of 33% and just over a 10% loss. These changes are of a recent nature.

[Charlie D]

You may see it as significant Dean , but my simple mind sees "not much change" :)



As stated, I can only speak from experience and that experience says Aqueduct is one place to be, as there are some GOOD investments to be found, Obviously your not going to get too many bombs, but at 2-1 plus you should be able to make a few bucks if your a competent capper.

Chuck in a couple more tracks and well, you could have a nice ROI at bottom of balance sheet.

[Charlie D]

Formula looks to be enjoying himself at Aqu :)

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=66992

[nobeyerspls]

In your self-aggrandizing eagerness to depict the public as lemmings, you're ignoring the fact that favorites take only a third of the play. That means in lots of races, lots of bettors back longer shots than you do, and stick your money in their pocket when they are right.
Look, I'm sure you're a smart player, but so are 10 million other guys and gals. And I don't see anything particularly unique in your approach. So you can type how much sharper than other players you are until you get carpal tunnel, but the cold truth of our pari mutuel system is that somebody counters every move you make. And that somebody is just as informed as you are.

I tried to make two points. The first was that I will arrive at the simulcast facilty prepared while most most of my on site wagering opponents will begin handicapping close to post time for the first race and treat every race the same. I can assume that this happens at other facilities, so it is likely that many of those playing GP or AQU on a Saturday will be unprepared. I need an edge with pick3's so construct them around my strengths. For example, I"m good at maidens and turf and stink at open claimers sprinting.
The second point was that the leverage afforded with horizontal bets is greatly enhanced when odds-on favorites are out of the sequence, hence the remark about the 2nd in NY that day. I never claimed any unique ability here. Remember that I hit the pick3 but not the pick4 so your observation that somebody countered my move is correct. My hat is off to those who found the 8-1 in the last leg as they cashed for $5,467. As to live longshots, I extract them from seven angles I have learned over the years, one of which I "borrowed" from someone else.
I see the sadder elements of the "public" come and go. The "action attraction" I noted is their downfall and many are influenced by the toteboard, or by high profile riders, or by huge speed figures, or any number of factors. I know that I am up against extremely competent handicappers and some are very good wagerers as well. By constructing my own "card" across several tracks I meet them under my terms and, as the thread says, I'm prepared.

[nobeyerspls]

Great yarn you've put together. Not that I'm gullible, but I believe your every word. Although I have to rely on Beyer's, my selection of the numbers have led me to some real positive scores. (Talking about about wagering a little) I haven't wagered a dime in three years, but my results on paper is getting much better. Can't wait until the day that I'm just as prepared as you claim in the story you just told. I can only dream of those big exotic payoff's by wagering a small amount multiple times.

If your paper results are getting better you should have some idea of your strengths and weaknesses. Limit your play to those strengths and you'll soon be cashing real tickets.

[TrifectaMike]

I tried to make two points. The first was that I will arrive at the simulcast facilty prepared while most most of my on site wagering opponents will begin handicapping close to post time for the first race and treat every race the same. I can assume that this happens at other facilities, so it is likely that many of those playing GP or AQU on a Saturday will be unprepared. I need an edge with pick3's so construct them around my strengths. For example, I"m good at maidens and turf and stink at open claimers sprinting.
The second point was that the leverage afforded with horizontal bets is greatly enhanced when odds-on favorites are out of the sequence, hence the remark about the 2nd in NY that day. I never claimed any unique ability here. Remember that I hit the pick3 but not the pick4 so your observation that somebody countered my move is correct. My hat is off to those who found the 8-1 in the last leg as they cashed for $5,467. As to live longshots, I extract them from seven angles I have learned over the years, one of which I "borrowed" from someone else.
I see the sadder elements of the "public" come and go. The "action attraction" I noted is their downfall and many are influenced by the toteboard, or by high profile riders, or by huge speed figures, or any number of factors. I know that I am up against extremely competent handicappers and some are very good wagerers as well. By constructing my own "card" across several tracks I meet them under my terms and, as the thread says, I'm prepared.

Now, that is an excellent post. The difference between this post and your original post is that instead of denigrading the "public", you've explained your role as a member of the "public".

I wish you continued success.

Mike