Odysseus - Good Derby Prospect?

[menifee]

Albertrani's horse looked good going two turns for the first time today. Looks to be the real deal. Did not beat much today, but that time for a mile and a 1/16 is not bad.

Got some good bloodlines too.

Most importantly, has a real Derby name

Opinions on this horse?

[OTM Al]

Albertrani's horse looked good going two turns for the first time today. Looks to be the real deal. Did not beat much today, but that time for a mile and a 1/16 is not bad.

Got some good bloodlines too.

Most importantly, has a real Derby name

Opinions on this horse?

I liked this guy ok his first out but he didn't do too much if I recall. Not terrible, but no great spark either. This was a NW1X isn't it? It could be possible I suppose for rapid development, but as a rule of thumb, he should have used up his NW1X condition already if he's going to really be a contender. Maybe he's got a shot at stepping up to the big time by late summer, but I have to believe he's too far behind the curve right now to play the big time in May.

[menifee]

I liked this guy ok his first out but he didn't do too much if I recall. Not terrible, but no great spark either. This was a NW1X isn't it? It could be possible I suppose for rapid development, but as a rule of thumb, he should have used up his NW1X condition already if he's going to really be a contender. Maybe he's got a shot at stepping up to the big time by late summer, but I have to believe he's too far behind the curve right now to play the big time in May.

He ran second in the fall of '08. Then he comes back and wins a maiden at GP at 7 furlongs. Today was NW1x condition. I know this does not take into account track conditions today, but his time was equivalent with that run by the winner in the Sam F. Davis. Perhaps they run him in the Florida Derby and see if they can get him some graded money? The horse looked really good today, though I know he's not running against much in this race.

[Charlie D]

Not seen race manifee and this is a FWIW post, my numbers say decent effort, however more needed to win an average KD.

Will be interesting though to see how Odysseus goes next time.

[OTM Al]

If they wanted to shoot the moon with this one, I'd keep him in Tampa for the TB Derby. The track surfaces between Tampa and GP are so different that you usually don't see horses do well on both, but he's managed to. It's still early for those with some credentials, but it's kinda late already if you have none and it starts getting later and later really quick in the spring time. You're right though. He does have a good name.

[Charlie D]

Right seen replay.

Visually a nice performance won with maybe a bit hand, numbers say decent so interesting prospect. I think.

Connections will probably go Graded now, so it will be interesting to see how he goes in against stiffer competition.

[Charlie D]

Just a little more thought.

FWIW, If he can step up a little on what he's shown there then a race like Tambay Bay Derby is probably not out of reach and if he can win in a decent fashion we probably have a legitimate KD horse.

[Space Monkey]

I believe his time was just a tick off Street Sense's track record. Not too shabby. I wouldn't dismiss this horse. Worth following IMO.

[Charlie D]

Odysseus not in KD Ante Post markets over here at moment.

[menifee]

I believe his time was just a tick off Street Sense's track record. Not too shabby. I wouldn't dismiss this horse. Worth following IMO.

He was one second off the track record.

I watched the replay again. This horse is the real deal. For a horse going two turns for the first time, he ran extremely well. They are putting him in the Tampa Bay Derby. Should be interesting to see him run there.

BTW, his final 1/16 was a 4 tenths of a second faster than Rule and he was eased up a little bit at the end. I also like that he does not need the lead.

Here is a link to the replay for those interested: Race 9 on 2/17.

http://www.tampabaydowns.com/DailyReplays.aspx

[Charlie D]

Any idea of who will be showing up with him menifee??

[menifee]

Rule will not be in the Tampa Bay Derby. Perhaps Uptowncharlybrown will enter. I'm not sure who else will enter. Derby Pool 2 here closes before the race runs.

[Charlie D]

Thanks menifee.

I have a cunning plan :) but to put it in action i need to know the RB Derby field, so i'll have to wait for the entries

[broadreach]

I liked the run. The speed was fast, he chased without being bustled too much, the last furlong was his most impressive part.

[OTM Al]

Albertrani's horse looked good going two turns for the first time today. Looks to be the real deal. Did not beat much today, but that time for a mile and a 1/16 is not bad.

Got some good bloodlines too.

Most importantly, has a real Derby name

Opinions on this horse?

Well in honor of you and this thread I threw him in my derby fantasy stable basically because I couldn't think of anyone else I really wanted and that he has a really good name for it :)

[menifee]

Well in honor of you and this thread I threw him in my derby fantasy stable basically because I couldn't think of anyone else I really wanted and that he has a really good name for it :)

Thanks. I might place a wager on him in Derby Pool 2 if he is a named entry. That pool closes before the TB derby is run. Given that he has no graded stakes earnings, I don't know if he will even be listed. I am not that excited about any of the prospects right now and this 3 yr old had the first performance that made me take notice.

Haskin has a nice little blurb on him here:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55463/kentucky-derby-trail-the-future-is-now

[GaryG]

I see him thrashing any of those currently on the grounds including Rule. There are always northern shippers for the TBD though. He looks like a real nice prospect.

[RXB]

The final figure is strong for Tam N1X but nothing special by GP N1X standards. The horse can run some but he's still got plenty to prove. Really, that was a garbage field he faced yesterday.

[Moyers Pond]

I see him thrashing any of those currently on the grounds including Rule. There are always northern shippers for the TBD though. He looks like a real nice prospect.

Rule is probably the most impressive 3yr old out there. This horse might beat him, but nobody is thrashing Rule in the TBD. Right now Rule is a better horse.

[OTM Al]

Thanks. I might place a wager on him in Derby Pool 2 if he is a named entry. That pool closes before the TB derby is run. Given that he has no graded stakes earnings, I don't know if he will even be listed. I am not that excited about any of the prospects right now and this 3 yr old had the first performance that made me take notice.

Haskin has a nice little blurb on him here:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55463/kentucky-derby-trail-the-future-is-now

No way he's on that one unfortunately. Enough horses out there that have already had stakes experience that they will fill the 23 slots. I remember being astounded Smarty Jones didn't make the futures until round 3. I got him there, but could have had him for a lot more earlier I think and he was a stakes winner by then.

[Charlie D]

Probably of no use to most, but notice Dan Illman blog has odds from Vegas

[Charlie D]

50-1 in Pool 2 I see and worth a few bucks at that price imho


33-1 with two books over here and no quote the rest, which is a tad disappointing tbh. :(

[menifee]

I think he will probably go off at 25-1 in this pool.

I think this might be the most value you can get out of him unless he runs horribly in the TB Derby which I doubt.

[menifee]

Positives: The horse gutted it out for the win. He really showed something coming back like that. I thought he got a poor ride from Maragh and he overcame it.

Negatives: I thought he should have ran faster and dusted this field. I was not impressed with it. Blanket finishes on the dirt usually mean the race was not that strong.

I think he was 4 -5 lengths better than this field, but the key part of this race was how he got intimidated and lost a ton of ground. That was not a good sign for a horse that will be competing against 19 horses in the Derby.

He did show heart though. My guess is that they will take him to Illinois and not New York. He needs to run a lot faster if he is going to win in May.

[WinterTriangle]

however more needed to win an average KD.

Will be interesting though to see how Odysseus goes next time.

You'd have to see Lucky in the paddock to know that Odysseus is not close to that kind of horse. Ditto nobles. JMHO. True as they comem calm and professional, and are horses who can "prevail".

Horses who can ship anywhere, run on anything, face obstacles, and are professional.

It takes either a freak, or a very solid horse, to win the KY Derby..... in a 20 horse field.

[Dahoss9698]

Positives: The horse gutted it out for the win. He really showed something coming back like that. I thought he got a poor ride from Maragh and he overcame it.



While I agree it was gutsy coming back like that, I thought Maragh rode a fine race. Around the turn when Jeremy Rose was making his premature move on Schoolyard Dreams, maragh was asking and he didn't respond. Then he found his stride late. It was a nice effort, but I think if Jeremy Rose doesn't move early Odysseus is 2nd today.

[Robert Fischer]

he was an opportunist much more than a warrior.

he's a good solid horse. he does everything right. Schoolyard Dreams did all the running and Odysseus got the win. He will be continue to be overbet.

[menifee]

You think that was a good ride?

Rose makes a move that is way too early. Rather than let that horse make the move, Maragh starts furiously riding his horse. Clearly, Odysseus does not have the turn of foot. The long shot comes up and intimidates Odysseus as well. He should have let those horses go and positioned Odysseus behind those horses on the outside.

Instead, the whole stretch Odysseus is boxed. He wants to pass what is front of him, but he's clearly intimitated.

Only when Maragh decides to swing him to the inside, does the horse feel comfortable and explode at the wire to get up. He saved the ride with that late move, but I thought it was a poor way to position the horse.

[Charlie D]

Another decent effort Menifee.


I would like to see him ridden with a little bit more restraint next time as he seems to be getting took out of his comfort zone chasing the pace.

Midfield, 10 panels :ThmbUp: There will be a lot more behind him than in front of him at the end of the race in my humble opinion.

[Dahoss9698]

You think that was a good ride?

Rose makes a move that is way too early. Rather than let that horse make the move, Maragh starts furiously riding his horse. Clearly, Odysseus does not have the turn of foot. The long shot comes up and intimidates Odysseus as well. He should have let those horses go and positioned Odysseus behind those horses on the outside.

Instead, the whole stretch Odysseus is boxed. He wants to pass what is front of him, but he's clearly intimitated.

Only when Maragh decides to swing him to the inside, does the horse feel comfortable and explode at the wire to get up. He saved the ride with that late move, but I thought it was a poor way to position the horse.

I didn't say it was a good ride. But compared to what Rose did it was a great ride. I didn't think he did anything wrong really. I think the horse found another gear late when Schoolyard Dreams was gasping after the premature move.

We'll see what happens from here, but I can't find fault with the way Maragh rode.

[Robert Fischer]

one thing about the Rose ride. He jumps Dominguez and Super Saver and takes them out. Dominguez is the best with pace on a route and he saves a ton of horse into the far turn. Rose wasn't going to let him save horse and enter with the lead. Rose knows the tendencies.

He Jumped Dominguez, he bothered Super Saver, and then as they entered the stretch they bumped Super Saver, and knocked him off stride and Super Saver couldn't change his lead.

It's not a certainty that anyone beats Super Saver if SYD is rated.

But yea Odysseus was the opportunist, but at least he showed he can handle running in traffic and inside.

[lamboguy]

it was one of the greatest rides i have ever seen. he pinned the best horse and wound up winning with an inferior one. odysius could never beat uptown charlie brown again in a million years.

[W2G]

Odysseus is at the top of my list. You just don't see horses do what he did in Tampa, let alone one so inexperienced. My sense is that added ground will be in his favor. He'll need to learn to take back early on though. Let others do the dirty work up front, he doesn't need to be among those prompting the pace. The Wood makes sense for his big prep.

[GaryG]

it was one of the greatest rides i have ever seen. he pinned the best horse and wound up winning with an inferior one. odysius could never beat uptown charlie brown again in a million years.You might want to think about that one again....UCB is common and the winner is the only one with any upside. He is probably not a champion, but he has a chance to be a good earner.

[KingChas]

"Noble Promise" Looms Boldley. ;)

[point given]

He was impressive winning by 15 over allowance foes and super impressive winning by a nose in the Tampa Derby coming back in deep stretch. Now the Wood may be next. This is a horse with heart and a will to win. Take a look at the replay link from bloodhorse article.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55877/odysseus-takes-tampa-bay-derby-thriller

I am on board with this guy. maybe an exacta box with Lookin at Lucky..

[OTM Al]

I like him more now but not about to put him near the top yet. His lack of experience really showed in the TB Derby. He also proved he's a pretty gutty little guy. He needs another good race before I'd be willing to bet him on top, not just for the conditioning, but for the experience. This is why horses who don't get started until their 3 year old seasons are always up against it because their competiton has experienced the crowds and race environs enough that it no longer bothers them too much. He got better, but he's still going to have to show me another good race.

[slewis]

I really wonder sometimes if postee's are watching the same race I am:confused:

If Rose was as clever as the chess player above states, we'd have won the Tampa Bay Derby 3 yrs in a row.

I voted loudly not to ride him Saturday and I got outvoted.....sad thing is..I'm gonna get outvoted again..

Our colt's a May foal.....he's got some growing to do and he came out of the race perfectly so I wouldn't be chuckin' him yet....but on the other hand, what the helll do I know...I just bought him.

[Dahoss9698]

I really wonder sometimes if postee's are watching the same race I am:confused:

If Rose was as clever as the chess player above states, we'd have won the Tampa Bay Derby 3 yrs in a row.

I voted loudly not to ride him Saturday and I got outvoted.....sad thing is..I'm gonna get outvoted again..

Our colt's a May foal.....he's got some growing to do and he came out of the race perfectly so I wouldn't be chuckin' him yet....but on the other hand, what the helll do I know...I just bought him.

You guys got robbed Slewis. Cost me a good chunk of change also. It's hard enough to get a horse to these races. When a dumb ride costs you a win, it must be real frustrating.

[OTM Al]

I really wonder sometimes if postee's are watching the same race I am:confused:

If Rose was as clever as the chess player above states, we'd have won the Tampa Bay Derby 3 yrs in a row.

I voted loudly not to ride him Saturday and I got outvoted.....sad thing is..I'm gonna get outvoted again..

Our colt's a May foal.....he's got some growing to do and he came out of the race perfectly so I wouldn't be chuckin' him yet....but on the other hand, what the helll do I know...I just bought him.

I like Schoolyard Dreams and thought he had a good chance to win Saturday. He finishes fairly well and should be still growing. Not sure yet if he can win the top flight races, but he can certainly take down a lot of money on the second level derbies. Felt much the same about Musket Man last year. Besides, he won me money in his last 2. Saw you on TVG when you were waiting for the photo.

[the little guy]

Saw you on TVG when you were waiting for the photo.


If I had seen this I would have started a thread knocking the feed from TVG.

[the little guy]

I really wonder sometimes if postee's are watching the same race I am:confused:

If Rose was as clever as the chess player above states, we'd have won the Tampa Bay Derby 3 yrs in a row.

I voted loudly not to ride him Saturday and I got outvoted.....sad thing is..I'm gonna get outvoted again..

Our colt's a May foal.....he's got some growing to do and he came out of the race perfectly so I wouldn't be chuckin' him yet....but on the other hand, what the helll do I know...I just bought him.


I don't disagree about the ride on Schoolyard Dreams....but wouldn't he have won because of a boneheaded ride by Raj?

I shouldn't blame him, actually, as perhaps they figured ( and while it's easy to knock this in result, but beforehand it may have made sense ) they only had to beat Super Saver and the instructions were to dog him. In retrospect, if Odysseus had been allowed to relax early, and both he and Schoolyard Dreams had gotten decent rides/trips, I think Odysseus would have won.

Still a tough beat....really tough. How was Schoolyard Dreams twice the price of Uptowncharlybrown? Must be the name that keeps suckering people in.

[OTM Al]

If I had seen this I would have started a thread knocking the feed from TVG.

Would likely have been the most reasonable anti-TVG thread on the forum! :)

[slewis]

I don't disagree about the ride on Schoolyard Dreams....but wouldn't he have won because of a boneheaded ride by Raj?

I shouldn't blame him, actually, as perhaps they figured ( and while it's easy to knock this in result, but beforehand it may have made sense ) they only had to beat Super Saver and the instructions were to dog him. In retrospect, if Odysseus had been allowed to relax early, and both he and Schoolyard Dreams had gotten decent rides/trips, I think Odysseus would have won.

Still a tough beat....really tough. How was Schoolyard Dreams twice the price of Uptowncharlybrown? Must be the name that keeps suckering people in.

Funny how a horse inherits a catchy name and everyone falls in love.

Im gonna change my real name to Slewis.....:)

[WinterTriangle]

Odysseus is at the top of my list.

I like him a lot, but for the derby, my superstitions against RAN in bmsire side is too strong.

Combined with BR sire line.

Egads. I would REALLY have to like a horse to go with what I consider a double whammy for the Derby.

[Charlie D]

if Odysseus had been allowed to relax early



If you know Thomas Albertrani or anyone conntected to Odysseus TLG, could you put your thoughts to them please ;) :)



Thanks in advance.

[Rackon]

Funny how a horse inherits a catchy name and everyone falls in love.

Im gonna change my real name to Slewis.....:)

Good idea.:)

A catchy name certainly helps. And it also helps if you have a great story behind the horse, as Fantasy Lane does. And it SURELY helps if you're the Tampa Bay house horse with your own blog on their website and you ran a green race last out but were in top 3 lapped on SYD at the finish. ANd you'd won on the surface.

OTOH, if I owned a piece of SYD I would be a bit unhappy with that ride. Racing luck is a big enough bitch all on its own without getting help.

[Charlie D]

Although with hindsight we can say he did may be move a tad early. I think your maybe being a bit hard on jockey of Shoolyard., afterall, he did only get beat by a nostril.

Almost perfect is lot better than totally braindead like you see with some rides.

That's my opinion anyway.

[Space Monkey]

How was Schoolyard Dreams twice the price of Uptowncharlybrown? Must be the name that keeps suckering people in.

UPCB is TAMPA's horse. Local connections, combined with a huge public stable ownership means you will never get a good price on him here. It doesn't matter how much simulcasting $ comes in.

His Sam Davis was impressive in defeat. He finished full of run. Many thought the blinkers would help. I didn't. He did behave well, he came out of the gate fine, but his running style changed for the worse IMO. He's a late developing colt who I believe needs time to mature to reach his potential.

[the little guy]

Funny, I thought he ran extremely mediocrely in the Sam Davis.

I get the local following, though sorry but with the kind of money that was bet into the Tampa card Saturday, the simulcast money misinterpreted his ability as well as the locals.

He's just not that good a horse. No shame in that but hopefully, for his sake at least, he will be more prudently placed in the future. I'm not saying they were wrong, per se, to run him in the TB Derby Saturday, but now we know.

[slewis]

I wanted to make something clear regarding UPCB.

My statement regarding how the media and public fall in love with a name was made for general context and not about UPCB in particular.

I find it amusing that the media acts this way, but it's all part of the fun of thoroughbred racing and the marketing of the game to the public...which we could certainly use more of.

Regarding Fantasy Lane.... they are a partnership which I personally are all in favor of...and loving your own horse and dreaming of great things is what fuels this game. I wished I personally owned a piece of him.

I would love to see more partnerships like fantasy lane... they give the small guys a chance to ruin the day of the racing elite who have taken control of this sport and have turned it into they're own personal playground.

I think the one thing everyone can agree on is that Saturday's race was very exciting and the sport can use more finishes in big races, similar to that in the TBD.....of course us getting the bob would make it even better:)

[Robert Fischer]

Odysseus does everything right, and add to the solid run down of "qualities" that we knew going into the TBD (footwork,willing,stamina...) add that now we see he can run inside horses and go through a hole while maintaining his gameness.

He is not an elite talent, but he does enough things right that he fits in fine with the big 3yo stakes at this point as a participant. He's a risk to be moved up considering hes that type of horse, that with a little push he could be a derby contender.

[W2G]

I like him a lot, but for the derby, my superstitions against RAN in bmsire side is too strong.

Combined with BR sire line.

Egads. I would REALLY have to like a horse to go with what I consider a double whammy for the Derby.

I think your word "superstitions" sums up how I feel about all that stuff. Although I'm sure someone is ready to post all the pertinent statistics, I can't buy into the notion that any individual horse's Derby fate is determined by his ancestors. What does concern me re: Odysseus is Albertrani floating the idea of training up to the Derby. We'll have to see if that head scratcher of a plan comes to pass.

[menifee]

Charlie D - I can't bet this horse if they train him to the Derby and don't get him another race. That is the rumor and that would be absurd. I can understand why they may not run him in the Wood, that looks like a tough race. But why not ship and race at Hawthorne in the Illinois Derby? I'm not a big speed figure guy, but this guy is going to need to run a lot faster in the Derby. He needs another race.

Another horse that I'm keenly watching is Paddy O'Prado. He had not appeared on any derby lists that I've seen so far. This horse wants to run all day. His gallop out in the Palm Beach was sick. Watch this horse's first race on the turf at Saratoga and watch his race in the Palm Beach. This horse is versatile. He can close from the clouds or be on the lead. He has a ton of big questions. The biggest question is whether he can run on dirt. Also, the Gulfstream turf is a conveyor belt, so it is unclear how strong that race truly was. I think they will run him in the Blue Grass (which won't answer the dirt question), but he might be a good value play there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRVAf6h1SKk

[Robert Fischer]

Another horse that I'm keenly watching is Paddy O'Prado. He had not appeared on any derby lists that I've seen so far. This horse wants to run all day. His gallop out in the Palm Beach was sick. Watch this horse's first race on the turf at Saratoga and watch his race in the Palm Beach.

This horse is versatile. He can close from the clouds or be on the lead. He has a ton of big questions. The biggest question is whether he can run on dirt. Also, the Gulfstream turf is a conveyor belt, so it is unclear how strong that race truly was. I think they will run him in the Blue Grass (which won't answer the dirt question), but he might be a good value play there.


He's not a bad horse. The thing that is not impressive about the Palm Beach is how Our Champion isn't all that highly regarded whatsoever, and he outran Paddy O'Prado in that race. At least Paddy galloped out well like you said. There is a much bigger question with Paddy over if he is any good, than if he will handle the dirt. The Blue Grass would be as good a spot as any in terms of having any chance to score some stakes money. Sometimes Keeneland plays to the forward runners as well and a horse like Paddy O'brien could have an advantage at 9furlongs there on those days.

[WinterTriangle]

but he's still going to have to show me another good race.

I'm not onboard with O yet. Yes he showed heart and that is good in a young-un. But SY was 2nd to Rule and beat a lot better horses so far than O. This last race was very oddly run, it seems the horses might have gone too early, and if the race is run again I doubt the outcome is the same?

O will have to show me in another race.

As for picking an exacta at this point for the Derby, good luck, but with what....10-11 more prep races to go, and considering that a % of the ones on the trail might not even be around then (ahem, like maybe Radiohead--on my theoretical list which is largely theoretical but the more I look at him I now can't figure out why I liked him much) I wouldn't try to pick an exacta at this point.

[Charlie D]

Trainers comments are interesting manifee and if he thinks Odysseus can go to Churchill without another run thats ok by me.

Re: speedfigures, he is doing ok on my numbers, but a bit more is needed to win KD . however, i think if they don't have him chasing pace as he has been doing, the race dynamics of Derby will suit this horse and as stated earlier, i think there will be more behind him than in front of him at finish. Whether he is good enough to win we just won't know until the Day, but if he is a decent price i will bet him.



At present time, he is KD 2010's Papa Clem in my mind.

[Robert Fischer]

I'm surprised that I'm the only one saying that there is a fair probability that Super Saver wins the TBD if not for Rose moving prematurely on SYD.

Let me see if I can upload a few still frames to illustrate this

http://img22.imageshack.us/img22/6801/vlcsnap2010031705h58m59.png
FRAME ABOVE: DOMINGUEZ SAVING HORSE ABOUT TO ENTER STRETCH.

http://img135.imageshack.us/img135/8870/vlcsnap2010031705h59m19.png
ABOVE: SCHOOL YARD DREAMS 'JUMPS' SUPER SAVER!


http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/7141/vlcsnap2010031706h00m40.png
ABOVE: SCHOOL YARD DREAMS BUMPS SUPER SAVER!

http://img683.imageshack.us/img683/1200/vlcsnap2010031706h01m26.png
ABOVE: SUPER SAVER ON WRONG LEAD BECAUSE OF BUMP.


http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/6122/vlcsnap2010031706h03m22.png
ABOVE: SUPER SAVER STILLLLL ON WRONG LEAD DEEEP INTO STRETCH, ABOUT TO FINALLY CHANGE NEXT JUMP.

http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/7906/vlcsnap2010031706h04m44.png
FIN: SUPER SAVER LOSES BY ONLY 0.5 LENGTHS(WHITE SILKS RAIL)!

Now, the point of this illustration is twofold. First it should be fundamental that had SYD not moved early, there is a fair probability that Super Saver wins wire-to-wire. Anyone interested in grasping this race who doesn't see that should review these photos once again. Second, that all these things hurt Super Saver, and the great ODYSSEUS & SCHOOLYARDDREAMS only beat him by half a length??
Super Saver is not a Derby contender, and anyone who handicapped these horses to any degree of accuracy would tell you before this race, that Super Saver was no better, if not worse than ODSYS & SYD. The reason Super Saver was favored was the trip he was all but guaranteed to get.

The fact that his trip was smashed over, like a 3rd grade bully(Rose) vs. a patiently constructed blocks sculpture(Dominguez's trip), and the others couldn't put him away, does not flatter them.

[Charlie D]

This is what i wrote prior to race over on Paceandcap


Like others, I was impressed by Oddyseus last time and he will be my pick if around 7-2, but on saying that this race looks set up for Super Saver to wire the field if ready after break.

#7 to beat #6.





And i don't think anyone is saying Odysseus is Great.

[Charlie D]

Let me try and put TB Derby into some prespective for our readers.


To win at the top level, horses like Quality Road, Zenyatta, Ravens Pass, Curlin run 112,113 on my figures - These are the figures of genuine Grade/Group 1 performers.


To win an average KD the winner needs to run around 110+, less if the opposition is weak as in some years like in Big Browns year.



As yet, Odysseus, SYD etc are a few length behind 110+, running around 108 (Good Grade 2 performances) but they do have the potential to run better than they have shown in my humble opinion.


Hope this helps.

[Space Monkey]

Funny, I thought he ran extremely mediocrely in the Sam Davis.

I get the local following, though sorry but with the kind of money that was bet into the Tampa card Saturday, the simulcast money misinterpreted his ability as well as the locals.

He's just not that good a horse. No shame in that but hopefully, for his sake at least, he will be more prudently placed in the future. I'm not saying they were wrong, per se, to run him in the TB Derby Saturday, but now we know.

He broke poorly, was allowed to settle, finished full of run, and galloped out past everyone. To me that was impressive. A strong late run like that is key as they go forward in the classic distances. His result was mediocre, his running after his poor start, wasn't. I was on the rail and he was flying as he went by me. His LP fig is one of the highest of the 3 yr old crop. I think the blinkers attributed to his mid pack finish in the Derby. We'll see.

I do hope they take a break now and run him next in an alw nw2x or an oc. He needs time to mature.

[the little guy]

He broke poorly, was allowed to settle, finished full of run, and galloped out past everyone. To me that was impressive. A strong late run like that is key as they go forward in the classic distances. His result was mediocre, his running after his poor start, wasn't. I was on the rail and he was flying as he went by me. His LP fig is one of the highest of the 3 yr old crop. I think the blinkers attributed to his mid pack finish in the Derby. We'll see.

I do hope they take a break now and run him next in an alw nw2x or an oc. He needs time to mature.


Your imagination got the best of you. He didn't really even break slowly, much less poorly, and at most was a half slow, which helped him as it allowed the rider to get him right to the fence while the OTHER FIVE HORSES WENT TO THE LEAD.

Of course he appeared to be running at the end....he did no early work and the two in front of him carried the burden for him. There are gallop outs that matter.....and ones that don't....and his didn't.

[Charlie D]

Your imagination got the best of you. He didn't really even break slowly, much less poorly, and at most was a half slow, which helped him as it allowed the rider to get him right to the fence while the OTHER FIVE HORSES WENT TO THE LEAD.

Of course he appeared to be running at the end....he did no early work and the two in front of him carried the burden for him. There are gallop outs that matter.....and ones that don't....and his didn't.


An excellent point made here by TLG and this is why you need to be wary of these "eyecatchers" They deceive you and leave you with a losing ticket most of the time.

[WinterTriangle]

I can't buy into the notion that any individual horse's Derby fate is determined by his ancestors.

Then you have just defied the whole basis for the selective breeding process, which gives us the thoroughbreds we have today, as well as the basis for improvement of the breed for desirable attributes like being able to run a certain distance, and the known repeated success of progeny from certain sires, etc.

If you want to learn something, study champions that can trace their bloodlines to La Troienne.... and then get back to me about ancestry not being important. :D


TLG, yes that was a good post.

[W2G]

Then you have just defied the whole basis for the selective breeding process

WT,
I know that you know that I know the importance of breeding. We all do. My point was targeted at those who evaluate classic contenders and ignore or discount demonstrated talent based on the presence or absence of certain sire lines and broodmare sire lines. If that line of inquiry works for you then by all means pursue it. But my personal preference is to not give those pedigree "trends" unwarranted consideration.

[WinterTriangle]

WT,
My point was targeted at those who evaluate classic contenders and ignore or discount demonstrated talent based on the presence or absence of certain sire lines and broodmare sire lines. If that line of inquiry works for you then by all means pursue it.

I got ya, W2G. This far out, I have no problem using theoreticals in place of lack of information on performance on the track. One or two performances at this point don't sway me much though.
Two or 3 days before the derby, I'll handicap it like any other race, but using my pedigree stuff in addition to filter out the top 6. :)

The ONLY reason for even bothering with a list this early is due to 1) hobby and 2) RTTR which requires that one predicts far enough out, and for that I'm just not willing to get on the latest "bandwagon" horsie because he just won a prep race.

[Robert Fischer]

DAMN :cool:

Nobody even bounces an opinion off this breakdown -
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=855706&postcount=58

- that's basically the whole race right there, and not only the crux of the race, but offers key secondary insights into Odysseus.

Far and away the climax of the TBD right there.

[W2G]

that's basically the whole race right there, and not only the crux of the race, but offers key secondary insights into Odysseus.

Robert,
Let's assume that SYD is not moved "prematurely". In that scenario why is it not also reasonable to assume that an unbothered Odysseus ranges up and battles SS to the wire in a winning effort? Clearly Ody seemed to shy away from SYD's boldness but picked it up again in deep stretch. Is it not also reasonable to assume that if SYD is not moved until the latter stages that his turn of foot would be more blunted and not as dramatic?

[Robert Fischer]

Robert,
Let's assume that SYD is not moved "prematurely". In that scenario why is it not also reasonable to assume that an unbothered Odysseus ranges up and battles SS to the wire in a winning effort? Clearly Ody seemed to shy away from SYD's boldness but picked it up again in deep stretch. Is it not also reasonable to assume that if SYD is not moved until the latter stages that his turn of foot would be more blunted and not as dramatic?

hypotheticals continued

excuse the late reply ...
Well, It looked like Odysseus was losing a bit of ground approaching the turn, and was then asked a to keep in striking range rather than to make a move. I could be seeing it wrong. Odysseus did appear like he found his stride late, -even if you credit much of that to the others not having the stamina and willingness - there is a fair chance that Odysseus doesn't have that issue had SYD not moved and catches Super Saver. :ThmbUp:

[Charlie D]

http://www.drf.com/news/article/111672.html




HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. - Trainer Tom Albertrani has confirmed that the Tampa Bay Derby winner, Odysseus, will have one final prep before the Kentucky Derby, with the choices remaining either the Blue Grass or Arkansas Derby.

"If all is well he'll get to run one more time before the Derby, although at the moment we still haven't made a definite decision where it will be," Albertrani said on Tuesday. "We're probably going to work him either Thursday or Friday, see how he is, and then make a choice between the Blue Grass or Arkansas Derby. We've still got another two weeks before we really have to decide. He'll ship on the 5th no matter where he goes, although I'd say by this time next week we should know which direction we're heading."

[menifee]

These guys mismanaged this horse. He should have gone to Hawthorne and raced in the Illinois Derby. Why would you take him to Keenland, what a disaster. Now he is on the outside looking in.

As I suspected, Paddy O'Prado ran very well on an extremely hot pace. He is in the Derby right now, still main question is if he can run on dirt.

[Charlie D]

He should have gone to Hawthorne and raced in the Illinois Derby


Connections are probably thinking same now menifee.

[Charlie D]

TB Derby

Odyssuess beaten 13 in Bluegrass
Schoolyard beaten 11 in Wood
Super Saver beaten 1/4 in Arkansas


Going by above it seems SD may may not have been at his previous best in Wood either.

[boogazie]

TB Derby

Odyssuess beaten 13 in Bluegrass
Schoolyard beaten 11 in Wood
Super Saver beaten 1/4 in Arkansas


Going by above it seems SD may may not have been at his previous best in Wood either.

Either that or Eskenderaya is that much better of a horse and Odysseus simply isn't a synthetic horse.

[Charlie D]

FWIW, Eskendereya is not showing up as a 3yo Curlin, Big Brown, Street Sense, Rachel, Quality Road ability horses on my figs

[Skanoochies]

FWIW, Eskendereya is not showing up as a 3yo Curlin, Big Brown, Street Sense, Rachel, Quality Road ability horses on my figs
Fair comment Charlie D, but does any of the other K.D. contenders show up as, Curlin,Big Brown, etc,etc? by your figures?

I`m not criticizing your figures just thinking it would be foolish to leave this horse out of my tri and super bets after his last two races.

He crapped on two horses that came back to run one=two. He appeared to win without really being asked in the Wood.

Has the ability to rate or go for it. Looks like a tough customer to me.

Good luck whoever you go for in the Derby.

[Charlie D]

Looking at Lucky is nearest to 3yo Curlin, Street Sense and he will probably be KD favourite on my line come 1st Saturday in May.

[Charlie D]

He crapped on two horses that came back to run one=two.


Aye, but Flad falling apart at seams helped those two.

Pulsion taking on Rule, Miners reserve done around 6f, Radiohead and Game Dude giving up


Someone had to benefit from all that.

[Charlie D]

TB Derby

Odyssuess beaten 13 in Bluegrass
Schoolyard beaten 11 in Wood
Super Saver beaten 1/4 in Arkansas


Going by above it seems SD may may not have been at his previous best in Wood either.


Uptowncharlybrown beaten a couple in Lexington.

[menifee]

Did you notice who beat him in the Lexington? The horse that Odysseus dusted on dirt at Tampa Bay in that nw1x race. They really screwed up with Odysseus. Oh my - he would have won the Illinois Derby by 20.

[PhantomOnTour]

FWIW, Eskendereya is not showing up as a 3yo Curlin, Big Brown, Street Sense, Rachel, Quality Road ability horses on my figs
I was wondering when someone would post this. By my numbers his figs aren't that great either. He sat off two slow to modest paces and rolled home. The fact that he did it so easily gives the appearance that there is more in him...maybe he can go a full second faster to the half and 3/4 and still finish.
He hasn't faced any of the Derby pace players in his preps, so he will SURELY go faster early than he ever has if he wants to maintain his customary stalking position...and that may surely affect his final figure.

[macdiarmida]

The coda:

http://theaspiringhorseplayer.com/2010/04/14/odysseus-the-derby-dream-endeth/

And I always imagined the poly bashers dressed like this!