Taking the Plunge?

[Shacopate]

The fourth race at CD tomorrow (July the 2nd) presents the type of dilemma that handicappers face on a daily basis.

How to handle the hard dropper.

#8 Do It My Way drops from 12.5k to 5k and will be favored to win based on some heavy Beyers. This horse is a win machine, seven starts in 2003, Five wins earning 68 thousand dollars.

Of course, there is something wrong with him or he wouldn't be in this race. But at this level?

Do you play against? Or do you use this horse?

[GameTheory]

The decision ought to be to play against or to pass. No way do you use him as a key horse, precisely because he'll probably be favored and you know he is likely vulnerable. A shaky play at low odds? Forget it.

I play against him if I can find a horse I think is going to improve today, even if his best is lower than the dropper...

[cj]

Play against, passing the race is passing up a nice oppurtunity. If he beats you, so what? Like you say, plenty more bad drop downs will follow soon.

[Valuist]

Somebody dropped from 40,000 to 7500 the other day at CD and won w/a number more associated w/the 40K animal. I think it depends on the trainer and or owner. That idiot Calabrese in Chicago has such a big ego and he wants the owner title so badly he doesn't hesitate to run horses under their value just so he can get more wins. It seems like years ago these type of big droppers were toss-outs; now they sometimes are even over-laid.

[Show Me the Wire]

Valuist:

You mean Little Velvet, Lynn Whittings' charge. I believe that particular drop was engineered to qualify this horse for starter allowance company. As it was it was a nice wager at 5-2, which dropped from 4-1 as the gates opened.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[VetScratch]

Shacopate,

I happened to look at the CD card earlier this evening.

In the 4th, don't you think Do It My Way and Broad Elegance are both backclass accidents waiting to happen? Both will win more than their share and continue to get claimed until they finally break down. When 5k claimers run for 13k, what Valuist said about changing times is too often true.

Pssst! Keep this confidential insider tip between the two of us: skip the 4th and play Boom Boom Bertie in the 5th: 12/1 ML, first-timer, rain or shine (but wet preferred), win and place.

The Devil made me do it! :)

[Shacopate]

I happen to know that Broad Elegance has bone chips in the knee because we considered claiming this one.

Boom Boom Bertie?

Do you really think this horse can beat Everyday Angel?

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Shacopate
Broad Elegance has bone chips in the knee because we considered claiming this one. Boom Boom Bertie?
Do you really think this horse can beat Everyday Angel?

yeah.....War Emblem had bone chips too.......

[Shacopate]

So did Arazi.

[VetScratch]

Especially at or near the bottom claiming level, the ideal horse is temporarily lame by the time it gets to the test barn, always runs washed out, never goes well in the morning, and sports a record like 58-18-15-10 $204,693 (Do It My Way). Trainers love to jam these kind down everyone's throat.

[Kentucky Bred]

At 7-5 the claimer is a broken down nag that is being dropped by a crooked trainer in order to get rid of it...


...but at 10-1, the horse is a great play on a horse that is being strategically positioned in order to win a purse by a shrew and clever trainer.

May the price be with you.

Kentucky Bred

[JimL]

Kentucky Bred, You said it all!!!

[Valuist]

SMTW--

That was the horse. Ironically there were three horses claimed out of that race but Little Velvet wasn't one of them.

[andicap]

Those starter allowances have always been a mystery to me since they never had many of them in the New York circuit.
That's a good point about dropping the horse to be eligible for those races.
(I've got to read that Collision book about the claiming game.)

This also points up the value of keeping records on winning trainers to see who wins on big class drops. When Frank Passaro was winning all those races, he was dropping horses like crazy and when people asked how he did it,he always said, "Well I put pepper under their genitals... "
No, he said he runs where they can win without fear of being claimed.

[Shacopate]

4th at CD,

Broad Elegance was scratched.

Do It My Way finished 3rd at 7-5.

Vetscratch,

Guess we'll have to wait to see Boom Boom Bertie, this one is scratched from the fifth.

[VetScratch]

Shacopate,

After the 9 and 12 scratched in the 4th, the 5 was probably a slight overlay at 5-1. My only original contenders were the 5, 8, 9, and 12.

In the 5th, Boom Boom Bertie scratched and may have saved me a few dollars. My notion that BBB might have been a good take-a-chance-play was based on projecting a story for her.

You had the Kleins as owners/breeders with a well-bred filly whose young dam has great produce potential for the auction ring: 1 starter, 1 winner (at 2), 1 stakes winner, giving the dam a 5.13 DPI.

There was no sales feedback on BBB (not even a buy-back for the reserve price). Why did the Kleins keep her? Probably she has flaws that prevented her from grading high enough to make it into the Select Sale at Kee. If that wasn't the case, why give her to Steve (Flint) rather than someone more fashionable?

Is BBB devoid of athletic potential? Also probably not, because it would make no sense to risk the dam's value by sending BBB to the races. I suspect BBB has some talent and was given to Steve's relatively small barn because she will get a lot of extra care and attention there. The best outcome for the Kleins will be multiple wins early in BBB's career before her flaws catch up with her. A successful racing career (albeit brief) is about the only scenario that makes sense (unless the dam has already suffered a tragedy).

[Kentucky Bred]

Now this is a good reason to have the legal and American opportunity to bet against this 7-5 choice. This bet down is a very poor proposition. It always has been. What money you could make in this situation!

Oh well, for us it is just a favorite to avoid and look for the price with a shot.

Kentucky Bred

[Shacopate]

I think the cleverly named Boom Boom Bertie (Thunder Gulch-Alltheway Bertie) probably has some talent. Filly has a steady work pattern with gate works that averaged in the top 35% spaced with some slow maintenence works.

Trainer does his best work in MSW at nearly 20% and showed some intent.

You might want to put this one in your horse watch and see if she warms up on the board a little.

[Doug]

Sometimes at the end of the meet the trainers drop these things because they about ready to be in need of a long layoff, but they still have a race in them at this cheap level.

They (the trainers) don't want the expensive of shipping them around and letting the horse have a layoff. Take the purse, the claim money (if claimed) and the bet and be done with it. If the horse is not claimed at least he pays for the upcoming layoff.

Don't really know if that is what they do, but it makes sense to me and catches a few good ones.

Doug

[cj]

It was a no brainer, like I said earlier. Bet with both hands against these kind, every time. You won't be right all the time, but who needs 7-5? I know I don't.

[Shacopate]

In addition to the 2 program scratches in this race, you also had 2 vet scratches (No, not that VetScratch---I think one is enough. Just kidding.)

At 7-5, he turned out to be a nag like you said for bettors, but still managed to pick up a check for his owners AND was claimed by 5 member partnership.

As for the original question---PLAY AGAINST wins.

[VetScratch]

Shacopate,
You also had 2 vet scratches (No, not that VetScratch---I think one is enough. Just kidding.)
You boys should count your lucky stars! Compared to here, where I am merely a humble journeychick, you should see me in action on other message boards where I actually do know a lot (e.g., cryogenic engineering, Amish collectibles, genome research, origami, anthropology, catfish farming, etc.).:D

[Shacopate]

Amish collectables?

Did you mean to say---A hammer?

[VetScratch]

Shacopate,
You don't have to pound it in; I get the point about my personality!:)

[Tom]

You guys (and gals) asked for it......

1. What is "clip clop, clip clop, BANG clip clop, clip clop?

An Amish drive by shooting!


2. What do Amish girls want?

Two meninite!

Boooooooo!

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally posted by VetScratch
Shacopate,
You don't have to pound it in;

PA:

I needed to let you know I had a difficult time letting a line like this pass, but I did it out of deference to your user agreement.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm confused...as usual....LOL

Did I miss something?

[Shacopate]

This kind of reminds me of something Uncle Jed used to say about Jethro on those Beverly Hillbillies reruns.

"Someday, I'm gonna have to have a long talk with that boy."

[VetScratch]

Everything I post doesn't need to be read through smoke with mirrors!

In this incident, I plead pristine innocence to insinuations of innuendo.

I took Shacopate's post to be a wry jibe at my (former:) ) habit of hammering every debate or issue into atomic particles.

My reply simply alluded to the functionality of a carpenter's hammer while acknowledging to Shacopate that I got his point.

Gosh, if I had detected overtones of sexual tension in my good-natured intercourse with Shacopate, I wouldn't have replied to his post. :)

[Shacopate]

Let me end this right now,

You are right.

We were just trying to be funny.

I apologize.

You are a quality poster who has taken alot of $hit.

Sorry.

[VetScratch]

Sergeant Bilko, this is no time for a crap game! These wargames are designed to test our combat readiness. Issue smoke and mirrors to every man in your platoon!

Thanks, Schacopate, I feel much better now that I have stopped crying.

[lousycapper]

Originally posted by Shacopate
The fourth race at CD tomorrow (July the 2nd) presents the type of dilemma that handicappers face on a daily basis.

How to handle the hard dropper.

#8 Do It My Way drops from 12.5k to 5k and will be favored to win based on some heavy Beyers. This horse is a win machine, seven starts in 2003, Five wins earning 68 thousand dollars.

Of course, there is something wrong with him or he wouldn't be in this race. But at this level?

Do you play against? Or do you use this horse?

============================

:D Could be you'll see these schlunks at the county fair in the kiddie's pony ride; certainly, not on the race track. Be sure to check for splints under those bandages. :D

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally posted by lousycapper
============================

:D Could be you'll see these schlunks at the county fair in the kiddie's pony ride; certainly, not on the race track. Be sure to check for splints under those bandages. :D

Yeah, but the question is what do you do with them while they are on the race track.

Any insights from Grampa?

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality