Who is the most likely filly/mare to beat Rachel-Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom?

[Moyers Pond]

If I had to take a shot I would go with Careless Jewel. Not sure what their plans are for her, but if you discount her synthetic race, her dirt times make here player in here.

[FenceBored]

If I had to take a shot I would go with Careless Jewel. Not sure what their plans are for her, but if you discount her synthetic race, her dirt times make here player in here.

Quality Road.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Quality Road.


Unless he has a sex change before 4/9 I don't that is likely!!!

[Dahoss9698]

Careless Jewel hasn't had a work since the BC fiasco last year. I doubt she makes it. Realistically the only one with a shot is St Trinians, but who knows if she'll handle dirt.

[Nikki1997]

Careless Jewel hasn't had a work since the BC fiasco last year. I doubt she makes it. Realistically the only one with a shot is St Trinians, but who knows if she'll handle dirt.

Excerpt from SA Stable Notes (2/15): Trainer of St Trinians, Mike Mitchell is quoted here:

"I spoke with Dr. (Dan) Capen (owner) and we'd like to look at the weights. I'd have to think we'd pack three more pounds if we ran against Zenyatta, but if we go to the Big 'Cap, we'd get the three pound sex allowance and I think that's important going that distance. We'll look at the weights, but I'd say we're pretty much definite for the Big 'Cap.

"Beyond that, we're going to keep her on synthetic. We would not consider the Apple Blossom ($5 million, April 9) because she's going to stay on the synthetic."

[cpitt84]

I just read that Zenyatta is the favorite to win it. Anyone surprised?

[lamboguy]

I just read that Zenyatta is the favorite to win it. Anyone surprised?how big a favorite is she?

[Cardus]

What race number will the Apple Blossom be?

[Moyers Pond]

how big a favorite is she?

It is head to head. Means you have to lay 125 to get back 225. Rachel you have to lay 105 to get back 205.

Zenyatta -125

Rachel -105

[Spalding No!]

Careless Jewel hasn't had a work since the BC fiasco last year. I doubt she makes it. Realistically the only one with a shot is St Trinians, but who knows if she'll handle dirt.

I don't get the St. Trinians in the Big Cap thing. That mare is poised to attempt to become a female Dare And Go. Instead they're gonna give up an extra week, add 3/16ths of a mile in distance, and face males to avoid taking on Zenyatta.

Life Is Sweet is a good barometer in a couple of ways. First, she was beaten by both Zenyatta and St. Trinians without giving either much of a scare. Second, avoiding Zenyatta last summer, she faced seemingly useless males and promptly got dusted.

Anyways, not that she can't beat them, but I think Tuscan Evening would be an interesting addition. I think the connections would at least consider it.

[SoCalCircuit]

on ladbrokes RA is 1-2 and Z is 6-4...pretty good value if youre a Z fan

[born2ride]

It is head to head. Means you have to lay 125 to get back 225. Rachel you have to lay 105 to get back 205.

Zenyatta -125

Rachel -105

Those odds are from Bodog, the same folks who had Zenyatta favored for HOY at around -140, and Rachel around +125. In contrast, BetUS had HOY odds for Zenyatta at even, Rachel was at -130.

BTW, BetUS has AB odds for Zenyatta at +105 and Rachel at -135.

[Dahoss9698]

I don't get the St. Trinians in the Big Cap thing. That mare is poised to attempt to become a female Dare And Go. Instead they're gonna give up an extra week, add 3/16ths of a mile in distance, and face males to avoid taking on Zenyatta.

Life Is Sweet is a good barometer in a couple of ways. First, she was beaten by both Zenyatta and St. Trinians without giving either much of a scare. Second, avoiding Zenyatta last summer, she faced seemingly useless males and promptly got dusted.

Anyways, not that she can't beat them, but I think Tuscan Evening would be an interesting addition. I think the connections would at least consider it.

You make a very good case for running in the Santa Margarita. I think part of it comes down to money, 750k for the Big Cap compared to 250k in the Margarita. Although it makes no sense why they seem adament about avoiding the Apple Blossom for 5 million. For that much money I think you have to take a shot.

A case can be made the Big Cap is an easier race, especially when you look at who's pointing to the race. This is a wild idea and I should probably put a tin foil hat on for thinking it. But I don't think anyone in California wants to be the one to beat Zenyatta. Can you imagine the backlash if she got beat before the Apple Blossom? Wouldn't be pretty. It was different before the BC Classic. She's become God like since that race.

[Spalding No!]

You make a very good case for running in the Santa Margarita. I think part of it comes down to money, 750k for the Big Cap compared to 250k in the Margarita. Although it makes no sense why they seem adament about avoiding the Apple Blossom for 5 million. For that much money I think you have to take a shot.

A case can be made the Big Cap is an easier race, especially when you look at who's pointing to the race. This is a wild idea and I should probably put a tin foil hat on for thinking it. But I don't think anyone in California wants to be the one to beat Zenyatta. Can you imagine the backlash if she got beat before the Apple Blossom? Wouldn't be pretty. It was different before the BC Classic. She's become God like since that race.

Yeah, the "we're only running St. Trinians on synthetics" declaration, although probably a realistic approach, should probably pale in the face of $5 million (especially with Mike Mitchell at the helm).

Going back to the Santa Margarita, while the BC Classic pretty much suggests Zenyatta won't get beat at Santa Anita, remember it was a full field of 12 or so horses. With both her and St. Trinians in there, you got to anticipate a 4-horse field. St. Trinians would have a massive advantage (which she'd probably need) with her tactical speed in that instance.

But as you suggest, other forces may be consipiring here (Mitchell is quoted as saying Team Zenyatta cheerleader Vic Stauffer gave him the Big Cap idea immediately following the Santa Maria). And conveniently, a few weeks out, Santa Zenyatta's...er...Anita's track management is considering changing the conditions of the Santa Margarita from a handicap to scale weights.

[bisket]

there is little doubt in my mind that rachel will be favored. i think zen goes to the gate at around 8-5 to 2-1.

[Cratos]

there is little doubt in my mind that rachel will be favored. i think zen goes to the gate at around 8-5 to 2-1.

I typically don't bet under 3-1 odds, but if Zenyatta goes off in the Apple Blossom at 2-1 or greater I got a bag of wooden nickels on her to win.

[Dahoss9698]

I typically don't bet under 3-1 odds, but if Zenyatta goes off in the Apple Blossom at 2-1 or greater I got a bag of wooden nickels on her to win.

I wouldn't worry about it. There's a better chance of pigs flying over the the track as the field is going up the backstretch than Zenyatta going off at 2-1.

[Relwob Owner]

I wouldn't worry about it. There's a better chance of pigs flying over the the track as the field is going up the backstretch than Zenyatta going off at 2-1.


agreed....what do you think? I am guessing RA 3 to 5, Zenyatta 6-5???

[Dahoss9698]

agreed....what do you think? I am guessing RA 3 to 5, Zenyatta 6-5???

I think Zenyatta is going to be the favorite.

[PaceAdvantage]

agreed....what do you think? I am guessing RA 3 to 5, Zenyatta 6-5???3-5? No way....

I wouldn't be surprised to see them both go off at the same price...

[Relwob Owner]

3-5? No way....

I wouldn't be surprised to see them both go off at the same price...

Maybe not 3-5 but I definitely think RA will be the slight favorite....either way, glad that the race is going to happen!

[joanied]

Does it matter what the odds will be on Z and RA? If I was going to bet the Apple Blossom, I'd buy a 2$ win on each (to keep) and just wager on every other mare in there...and hope you can win for show:D

Sometimes you have a race in which betting is not necessary...it's this kind of race...the one you simply watch and get caught up in.
Just my thoughts:)

[miesque]

I keep wondering just exactly how many fillies or mares who are not named Zenyatta or Rachel Alexandra are actually going to be in this race.

[cj's dad]

What race number will the Apple Blossom be?

The 17th - it is scheduled between the final at Oaklawn and several simulcasts from Japan; next stupid question !!

[OTM Al]

The 17th - it is scheduled between the final at Oaklawn and several simulcasts from Japan; next stupid question !!

And I was hoping it would be race 7.5 on the card...

[bisket]

i think zen will be 2-1 to 8-5 and i think rachel will be around even to 3-2. why? because you can't gauge zenyatta's ability by speed figures, and rachel is a speed figure handicappers dream.

[letswastemoney]

i think zen will be 2-1 to 8-5 and i think rachel will be around even to 3-2. why? because you can't gauge zenyatta's ability by speed figures, and rachel is a speed figure handicappers dream.
Rachel doesn't draw as much emotion out of fans as Zenyatta does.

I think because Zenyatta has become god, like another poster said, she will be bet down as the favorite.

The best horse on paper doesn't get favored in a race like this. Emotion will dictate who is favored.

[Charlie D]

on ladbrokes RA is 1-2 and Z is 6-4...pretty good value if youre a Z fan


I wil be a Z bettor at those prices if still available come race time.

[Zenyatta To Crush]

there is little doubt in my mind that rachel will be favored. i think zen goes to the gate at around 8-5 to 2-1.
So you think a horse who would be 15 for 15 lifetime who recently beat the best horses the world had to offer, will go off as second choice? I know the pace scenario will be a big factor in determining odds and how well Rachel runs first back, but its hard to believe Zenyatta would be 2nd choice.

My odds prediction --- Zenyatta 1-1, Rachel 7/5. The rest of the field not lower than 20-1.

[Stillriledup]

So you think a horse who would be 15 for 15 lifetime who recently beat the best horses the world had to offer, will go off as second choice? I know the pace scenario will be a big factor in determining odds and how well Rachel runs first back, but its hard to believe Zenyatta would be 2nd choice.

My odds prediction --- Zenyatta 1-1, Rachel 7/5. The rest of the field not lower than 20-1.

The odds will be largely determined on two factors. 1) the prep races. The more visually impressive horse will be bet into oblivion. If one horse appears to be more impressive, the public will put too much stock in that one race and that more impressive prep horse will be overbet and 2) people these days think they're really 'sharp' at predicting 'lone speed' if Rachel appears to be lone speed, she'll take a lot of money on that factor. The question of who is going to duel with Rachel is a big one, if its Rachel, Z and a few plodders, Rachel will be the favorite at around even money.

[Zenyatta To Crush]

The odds will be largely determined on two factors. 1) the prep races. The more visually impressive horse will be bet into oblivion. If one horse appears to be more impressive, the public will put too much stock in that one race and that more impressive prep horse will be overbet and 2) people these days think they're really 'sharp' at predicting 'lone speed' if Rachel appears to be lone speed, she'll take a lot of money on that factor. The question of who is going to duel with Rachel is a big one, if its Rachel, Z and a few plodders, Rachel will be the favorite at around even money.
I agree. If Rachel won by 20 lengths again against 2 other horses, she might be favorite. You know what Zenyatta will do, probably another easy 2 length victory. You're right, the betting public will probably bet the more visually impressive winner which may very well be Rachel. The betting public also likes to bet undefeated horses pretty hard too so maybe it'll balance out a bit.

Its not much of a betting race anyways so I guess the odds don't matter much.

[WinterTriangle]

Maybe I'm the only one thinking it's a 2 horse race. Until I see the other entrants, I can't say that for sure. It's a horse race, anything can happen, including scratches.

we get 54+ inches of rain here and the heaviest is in April and May. I think it's 5+ inches in April.

Last year we had tornadic type thunderstorms in april 2009 ... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/?n=svr0409byr.htm

This was 4/10/08 "A significant weather outbreak continues over Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and western Arkansas where severe thunderstorms with damaging wind, large hail and tornadoes have been erupting since Wednesday afternoon..."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=woPOa4-zp8Q

In April of 2008, there were 58 tornadoes in 7 states....7 of which were somewhere in Arkansas.

Hey, just sayin'. :lol:

[andymays]

Rachel Drills 5 Furlongs in 1:00 1/5

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55456/rachel-drills-5-furlongs-in-100-15

Excerpt:

Reigning Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra posted her fourth workout of 2010 when she covered five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 over a fast track at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots Feb. 18. The work was the second fastest of 19 horses at that distance.

[joanied]

Rachel's latest work is exciting, IMO...and I like that she got a lot of galloping into it also...just what she needed. Hope the weather holds so she won't get off her scheduel.
I see Zenyatta worked also...her usual type work and gallop out...both seem to be coming along just wonderful:jump: :jump: :jump:

I can't wait to see who else enters the Apple Blossom...wish they'd at least announce the invitation list:faint:

[andymays]

Rachel's latest work is exciting, IMO...and I like that she got a lot of galloping into it also...just what she needed. Hope the weather holds so she won't get off her scheduel.
I see Zenyatta worked also...her usual type work and gallop out...both seem to be coming along just wonderful:jump: :jump: :jump:

I can't wait to see who else enters the Apple Blossom...wish they'd at least announce the invitation list:faint:


Zenyatta work 'absolutely beautiful'

http://www.drf.com/news/article/110908.html

Excerpt:

ARCADIA, Calif. - Zenyatta breezed six furlongs in 1:14 at Hollywood Park on Thursday, leaving trainer John Shirreffs with glowing compliments about the condition of his unbeaten champion.

"She just galloped around there," he said. "She looked absolutely beautiful."
Zenyatta worked in company with El Vino, an unraced 4-year-old. El Vino worked six furlongs in 1:14.20. Shirreffs said Zenyatta worked in company "just to keep her comfortable with horses around her. I usually work her with another horse."

[joanied]

Zenyatta work 'absolutely beautiful'

http://www.drf.com/news/article/110908.html

Excerpt:

ARCADIA, Calif. - Zenyatta breezed six furlongs in 1:14 at Hollywood Park on Thursday, leaving trainer John Shirreffs with glowing compliments about the condition of his unbeaten champion.

"She just galloped around there," he said. "She looked absolutely beautiful."
Zenyatta worked in company with El Vino, an unraced 4-year-old. El Vino worked six furlongs in 1:14.20. Shirreffs said Zenyatta worked in company "just to keep her comfortable with horses around her. I usually work her with another horse."

I have no doubt, andy, that Z looked absolutley beautiful...and that is what she does...1:14 in a fast gallop...easy as can be, eh :ThmbUp: She is amazing....still.
:)