Who has the best program or method for the turf

[John]

Here they come. 4 races on the Turf at Belmont for wednesday . Now that the country is rain free almost all tracks are running 4 or 5 Turf races a card.

Sad, these races are sandwich between most pick - 3 and always in the late DD.

I need some help in the turf area or I go fishing for the summer.

Steve Wolson " Speed Scan " said, look at the horses last three turf races regardlees of when or where and bet the horse that has the highest Turf Beyer, Briss,Tsn Or whatever number of the three.

It works [ Somtime ]

[so.cal.fan]

James Quinn suggests betting the horse who has the fastest last fraction, provided it is in the same class running or BETTER.
I tend to go along with this.
Additionally, I usually demand a trainer is a TURF trainer.......15% or better with turf runners and the same with the jockey.
The Beyer method is good too, provided it was acheived at a
standard distance and a comparable class, preferably a higher class.
I really prefer foreign breds at 1 1/8 or longer.
Of course if you are betting Saratoga........don't leave a Frankel turfer off your ticket.;)

[Fastracehorse]

And the first leg was turf ( $50 + )

2nd leg was a $19 horse.

Got the p-3 too but it paid less than the double.

fffastt

[Big Bill]

If you have the book, Handicapping Magic, you will see where Michael provides a method for selecting horses in turf races. It is toward the back of the book.

Big Bill

[cj]

Basing turf picks on only the last fraction without regard to the pace of the race is not a good idea. I did much experimenting with it, and it just doesn't work. After much tinkering, I've come up with a few ideas that really seem to work. I've went from ignoring turf races to looking forward to them.

I'll sum up what I do real quick and anyone has questions, fire away. First off, for dirt, I use the Quirin method, combining the pace figure with the speed figure. I still do that for turf, but it is only the first rating. The second rating is more inclined to late speed. Here is an example...

Say a horse ran a 70-80 pace speed combo. His pace rating would be (70+80) / 2 = 75. I calculate the late portion of the rating as follows:

(80*3) - (70*2) = 100

I then average that 100 with the pace rating, 70 in this case, for the late speed rating. (100 + 70) / 2 = 85.

So in this case, the horse would rate 75-85 for the race. I only look at the higher of the two, so this horse would be an 85.

One other example...

Horse runs 90-80, so his 1st rating is 85. The second rating would be:

(80*3) - ( 90*2) = 60

(60+90) / 2 = 75.

His rating is now 85-75, so I would take the 85 as well. I have found the best turf horses show the best turn of foot over shorter distances, and this seems to point them out. You won't find many standouts using this type of method, but you will find legitimate contenders at some very nice prices.

[Shacopate]

When comparing foreign shippers making their first U.S. start, subtract 14 points from the timeform rating to see how it compares "Beyer-wise."

Pizzola's turf method is to open the form cycle window all the way and use the horse with the highest PPF.

With a little research you can benefit by knowing how the course plays when the rails are out.

[cj]

Originally posted by Big Bill
If you have the book, Handicapping Magic, you will see where Michael provides a method for selecting horses in turf races. It is toward the back of the book.

Big Bill

His method sounds great on paper, but in reality it just didn't pan out. Too many turf horses "explode" home after very slow paces. Look at the following:

1 mile races

Horse A-Pace call 1:14 1:36 lengths behind are 2 and 4, so the horse's PPF would be 96.4 - 74.2 = 22.2

Horse B-Pace call 1:12 1:35 wire to wire winner, so the horse's PPF would be 23.0

Same race card, same track. Is there any way horse A is better than horse B? Not very likely.

I know Pizzola says not to use atypical races, but in ten turf races in any horse's record, it is not unlikely to find 2 turf races like horse A ran.

[Fastracehorse]

And a liitle knowledge of how the turf course is playing.

Oh yah, and a little dash of trainer intent.

fffastt

[Valuist]

I think Beyer's dirt numbers are more reliable than their turf speed figures. Thorograph's grass numbers are better because they incorporate ground loss into the equation. Its never good to race wide on the turns on the turf.

[Fastracehorse]

It's the contrary IMO Valuist about Beyer #'s.

You are right about being wide on the lawn - very bad thing - it's very difficult to manufacture a good trip on the grass - ground loss for turf races isn't as important for dirt races.

If you get a bad trip on the lawn you won't win - it's as simple as that - it's easier to overcome problems on the dirt and these problems are more useful when manifested in speed figs.

fffastt

[John]

Thanks Guys. So far so good.

I like So. Cal on James Quinn. It makes sense the fastest last fraction.It seems to me that nobody wants the lead and no horse starts to run untill the top of he stretch.


Cj, formula seems to be a good gage to spot the contenders.

Big bill. I don't know anything about Handicapping Magic.Maybe you can explain his method. Although CJ, does not think much of it.

Shacopate, foreign shippers making their first U.S. start, That's a good angle.


Good infomation so far.

[cj]

Originally posted by Valuist
I think Beyer's dirt numbers are more reliable than their turf speed figures. Thorograph's grass numbers are better because they incorporate ground loss into the equation. Its never good to race wide on the turns on the turf.

First turn, no doubt, a very valuable piece of info. But if you are talking the second turn, I'd have to disagree. Many turf winners swing wide on the second turn to use their closing kick without having to break momentum.

[kenwoodall]

Yeh! Bet numbers! On the turf I bet the horse on the longest winning streak no matter what it won! Then I bet the fav to show!!

[Amazin]

There is a lack of distinction here.IMO here are two types of turf horses.Horses with Turf experiences and horses with none.You can't have numbers on horses with no experience because dirt horses rarely translate their form to Turf unless they have some Turf Breeding.Same is true with Maidens.Two types.Those with experience and those without.Can't mix em.

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by kenwoodall
Yeh! Bet numbers! On the turf I bet the horse on the longest winning streak no matter what it won! Then I bet the fav to show!!

Would you deposit some money in the Woodbine pool, please?

[Doug]

8 Quirin speed points or lone f or e running style Only play the bombs (16-1) and up.


Doug

[Big Bill]

CJ and Rocajack,

CJ, you said you went from ignoring turf races to looking forward to them. I'm still ignoring them. I limit my handicapping to non-maiden claiming sprints on the dirt for older horses.

I only mentioned the Handicapping Magic method of Michael's because I remembered it from reading the book. I use BRIS's ratings in my handicapping and right after reading HM I converted his method to one using BRIS ratings. Then I checked it on some turf races of old pps I have. Didn't do it enough to determine the validity.

For those members who use BRIS data, and who might want to check it out, it is quite simple to do the calculations. Using only route races run on the grass take the LP rating and subtract from it two times the lengths behind at the second call, i.e.,

Turf Rating = LP - (2 * L/B at E2)

If one assumes that BRIS does indeed adjust their ratings for daily variants, track-to-track, and class, then these turf ratings should be "good" ones! And it also assumes that Michael's PPF methodology is valid.

If one has the BRIS Custom PP Generator software the filter capabilities of the software can be used to print out just turf route races, making it simple to caculate the turf ratings rather quickly.

If anyone's database contains the BRIS data they could probably test this out over many races!

Big Bill

[Tee]

I look forward to turf races every day & have for a good number of years.

I feel having a good idea what horses will excel over a turf course either by pedigree or running style is going to help anyone improve their turf handicapping skills.

Know your turf course!!

Most turf races are won from off the pace, but many factors go into picking a winner. Where the rail is placed, the amount of moisture in the lawn will effect the outcome of a race. Running position is key - a few turf courses produce a high percentage of winners who have the lead at the top of the stretch, the reverse is also true.

I get into more trouble with jockeys/horses that try to save ground around both turns. Ground saving rail runs end up getting stuffed in the lane more often than finding the winners circle in my experience. I had one win this weekend @ Monmouth that I put in my horse watch(stable mail) after watching him rate just off the pace @ Belmont only to get stopped cold at the top of the lane & never getting to run. Royal Affirmed went wire to wire Sunday @ Mth at a good price of 7/1.

Saving ground & relaxing around the 1st turn are more often than not paramount to success on the lawn. Going 4 wide around the 2nd turn is of no concern to me if my horse has been allowed to settle & make/sustain that big run turning for home - for example Just Wonder this past weekend in the Cinema @ Hollywood park.

In summary I think the best method for turf racing involves the eyes of a handicapper. Watch as many races as you can & see who is winning & while you are watching why they are winning will quickly become apparent as well.

[gino]

doc sartin's pantheon of seminar speakers used to include a sharp dressed man named Marion Jones who won turf races at the same clip McD's cranked out "burgers"...at one time he claimed to have won like 397 straight turf races...he would get me giggling so i always left the room and never found out what the secret was...apparently nobody else did either...

[Valuist]

CJ Milk-

Yeah, I'd agree its much worse to be wide on the first turn; for one thing the first quarter is usually the fastest. As for the 2nd turn, I still don't want my horse wider than the 3 path, if they can help it.

One possible flaw in the T-Graph Belmont numbers at 1 1/16 miles; they count the first turn as a full turn, when it really is only a partial turn. I wonder if Brown or Friedman treat it as a full turn.

[kenwoodall]

I have made deposits at Woodbine and almost always withdraw with interest using my consistency system to show!
IMO consistent horses rule!

[alysheba88]

I love turf racing and Beyers are almost totally irrelevant when I handicap them. For several reasons.

First of all, although I think Beyer and his cohorts do a great job its real hard to put stock in some of the past turf Beyers. When there is only one or two races on a card. How can people blindly trust the number off such a small sample?

Secondly, turf races tend to have closer finishers than dirt races. Where several horses are seperated by a couple of lenghts at the finish. Similar to harness racing in that manner. So any look at Beyers will often show a field with very similar #'s.

The last quarter is very important, as of course is the past trip. Racing wide on the first turn is bad anytime, but especially at turf racing. Horses also tend to be blocked more subetly on turf racing too. Where they dont necessarily lose ground but are packed in like sixth with no where to go. The jockey is far important in turf racing than other surfaces in my opinion.

The best turf situations for me are lightly raced horses with little turf form. Thats where breeding and the Tomlinson's can kick in and provide great value as the public tends to stab at these races and just pick the horse with good dirt form. Of course the trainers stats on the turf are ultra important.

[so.cal.fan]

Hold on there, Ranch
You are encouraging California bettors to bet in foreign pools?
Don't listen to him K.WOOD..........Hollywood Park, we have a couple of good turf races everyday. Let's keep our money in Calif.

[delayjf]

One of the best things that came out of the Sartin methodology was Sustained pace. When I first started using this rating on turf it worked like no other rating I've seen. I think it is affective because it puts the emphasis on the final fraction while taking into account the race pace.

Shacopate,
I would agree with you with regards to the 14 point adjustment to timeform ratings that are in the 120+ range. But I've found about 8 points ins accurate for timeform ratings less than that.

[Tom]

for MSW and NW1,2 Alw, I emphasize breeding. Once a horse has failed three times on grass, I don't consider it c contender to win (look out for place). When I look at a race for limited turfers, I throw out the proven losers, then look at the ones with a race or two on the lawn that showed something in one of them and the firsters wtih good breeding and trainer connections. ususally, this narrows the race down quickley.
Once they have established turf form, I favor late pace unles the track profile tells me otherwise. Three ways I do this:

(1) In HTR, I select two-three good turf lines run within a 1/2 furlong of today's race-the prgram averages the lines. I favor horse 1-2-3 in Sustained Pace or 1-2-3 in late pace. Usually, this is 2-4 horses. I look at the rider, trainer, horses-for-courses, trouble last out, and odds to seperate them. I weigh class heavily, say the #1 LP horse comes out of a NW3 race and the #2 LP horse comes out of an overnight stake or handicap, I prefer the #2 horse.
(2) Raw third fractions. I assign a SR based on 100= :24, :30, :36
seconds to compare different distances. I select individual horses fractions in Formulator and just print out the PPs-piece of cake, and I have done very well at SAR wiht this method.
(3) Same as #2 above, but when I have the time, I weight the third fractions giving more credit to a longer distance-the horse is sustaining a move for a longer distance/time. I also convert the SR into Beyer-type numbers, right out of Quinn's Figure Handicapping book. Only I don't bother with track pars - just raw times.

CJ's method is interesting and I will be trying that out with the Crammer pace and speed numbers. Just love turf races becasue you aren't out of it until very late in the race. In dirt races, I am frequently out of it before the announcer finishes "They're Off!"

[so.cal.fan]

"Just love turf races becasue you aren't out of it until very late in the race. In dirt races, I am frequently out of it before the announcer finishes "They're Off!"

Tom:
I guess it goes back to our old "Let's Go the The Races" days where we watched horses getting beat in the last jump everytime! LOL

[andicap]

CJ
in yourturf method you say you take the 2nd number, but in the
second example, where you came up with an 85-75, you said you would take the 85.
????

Also, I thought you said you summed the two numbers??????

:confused:

[David McKenzie]

Originally posted by gino
doc sartin's pantheon of seminar speakers used to include a sharp dressed man named Marion Jones who won turf races at the same clip McD's cranked out "burgers"...

Gino,

The Follow Up had an an article/interview with him. Marion said Sustained Pace is the most predictive winning turf factor, by far. In that writing he showed how Phase III and Energy! could get the raw or adjusted SP which indicated which horses would do well on the grass, whether the paceline selected was from a dirt or turf race. Even horses with a prounounced Early running style would show a superior SP rating at Southern California tracks...and they'd win.

For a while I was using K-GEN's raw SP graph with great success on the turf to spot these horses. Then, it sort of stopped working. I don't know why. I suspect that was about the time the great influx of foreign horses, combined with short fields, made the whole thing lose it's punch.

I've tested SP since then using a variety of programs, but for some unknow reason it's never produced the winners it did at one time.

:::scratching head:::

[David McKenzie]

Originally posted by Valuist
I think Beyer's dirt numbers are more reliable than their turf speed figures. Thorograph's grass numbers are better because they incorporate ground loss into the equation. Its never good to race wide on the turns on the turf.

One of the big problems with any kind of electronic timing on the grass is that the starting gate is almost never in the same place twice.

To measure something in 100's of a second when it may actually be off by several ticks is kind of self-defeating.

To the best of my knowledge The Sheets are the only outfit that takes that into consideration; they hand time the races.

Incidentally, my favorite turf method is the Equiform turf decline angle Fotias outlines in Blinkers Off .

[gino]

davey mac:
i run into u in the strangest places...
unlike Marion, here are my steadily declining plays on Turf- Del Mar, BC Day, and accidentally...(like oops, i thought that was an awfully large field ).
i play just enough races each year so that i can list my occupation on Form 1040 as "turf analyst".
("poet" generated too many audits.)
i hope that wherever Mr Jones is today, the grass is still green, and his win streak is intact.
he was old school smoove, and the Doc loved him for his outrageous claims...
the man could tie a full Windsor.
gino
working today in hammer pants with no shirt on

[delayjf]

Could you tell us more of what your studies on SP indicated. IE did the win % go down or the ROI.

Ken Massa's study indicated that sustain pace was not as effective at one mile as it was at the longer distances. IMHO, I suspect that might be true because at one mile SP gives too much weight to the final fraction, in this case the final 1/4 mile. But, as this final fraction increases with the added distance, so does the effectiveness of SP.

[Blackgold]

I use a combo of Pizzolla's PPF and BRIS Late Pace to evaluate contenders.

I find the BRIS Late Pace especially helpful because I think it incorporates averages of LP from races not visible in the 10-12 published races.

If you follow Pizzolla and look for the horse with the highest PPF anywhere in it's published lines. . . then it stands to reason that the unpublished, previous lines that BRIS incorporates into it's averages, often contain LP figs that if run to today, points to a contender.

However, for horses with only one or two races on the turf, the breeding, owner/jock percentages, etc. . . take special importance.

Lastly, I have no clue on how to handicap turf sprints. Bet on one this past March and not only did none of my contenders finish in the money. . . the super paid $76K. Anyone with anything to share about handicapping turf sprints- even the hill at SA- please enlighten me.

[cj]

Race # 7---8.0f

1:BRITELITEINTHENITE-Ky:6-1:E

Distance 0:0-0-0 Track 0:0-0-0
J-SOLIS-A ( 215- 41- 34- 29-0.19) ( 582-105-0.18)
T-Hofmans-David ( 27- 4- 2- 6-0.15) ( 66- 8-0.12)

Hol 06/19/2003 8.5 5 Dfst Gamely-came-back-up 71 80 66 80| 86d
Hol 05/10/2003 7.0 6 Dfst Angled-in-turn-no-bid 78 84 59 74| 81d

2:SWEET-RETURN-GB:6-1:S

Distance 2:1-0-1 Track 1:0-0-0
J-NAKATANI-C-S ( 225- 28- 44- 31-0.12) ( 545- 73-0.13)
T-McAnally-Ronald ( 57- 10- 10- 4-0.18) ( 165- 24-0.15)

Hol 06/11/2003 9.0 8 Tfm Pulled-bit-crowded-1/8 96 89 89 84| 86
SA 03/08/2003 6.5 5 Tfm Btwn-dirt-2nd-best 90 91 83 88| 90
SA 01/31/2003 8.0 6 Tfm Tight-start-waited-1/8 84 86 71 86| 94
San 08/31/2002 7.0 X Tgd Sandown(GB) AdjTimeform 94| `94`
BEV 08/15/2002 7.5 X Tyl Beverley(GB) AdjTimeform 70| `70`
Asc 07/26/2002 7.0 X Tgd Ascot(GB) AdjTimeform 70| `70`
War 07/07/2002 7.0 X Tgd Warwick(GB) AdjTimeform 63| `63`
BAT 06/26/2002 5.5 X Tfm Bath(GB) AdjTimeform 59| `59`

3:AMERICAN-FURY-Ky:20-1:P

Distance 1:0-0-0 Track 2:0-0-0
J-NUESCH-D ( 94- 5- 8- 11-0.05) ( 144- 8-0.06)
T-Kenney-Martin ( 20- 0- 1- 1-0.00) ( 87- 6-0.07)

Hol 06/11/2003 9.0 1 Tfm Stalked-pace--no-bid 97 90 89 85| 86
Hol 05/25/2003 8.0 2 Tfm Saved-ground-to-lane 82 93 71 86| 93
Hol 05/03/2003 7.0 1 Dwf Off-bit-slow-rail-trip 89 92 59 82| 93d
SA 04/19/2003 6.5 8 Dfst Angled-in-rail-rally 106 89 83 89| 93d
SA 03/29/2003 6.5 4 Dfst Came-out-1/8-late-2nd 85 86 60 83| 95d
Hol 06/22/2002 5.0 6 Dfst Off-bit-slow-btwn-turn Dash Race 68| `68d`
SA 04/12/2002 2.0 10 Dfst No-rally-outside < 0| < 0

4:STANLEY-PARK-Ky:9-2:S

Distance 1:0-0-0 Track 1:1-0-0
J-SMITH-M-E ( 161- 27- 19- 20-0.17) ( 473- 75-0.16)
T-Shirreffs-John ( 38- 6- 3- 7-0.16) ( 81- 16-0.20)

Hol 05/26/2003 8.5 8 Tfm b 3wd-7/8-rail-bid-lane 70 83 62 83| 92
SA 03/19/2003 8.0 2 Tfm b Savd-ground--no-threat 93 78 77 59| 61

5:FLIRT-WITH-FORTUNE-Fla:10-1:P

Distance 0:0-0-0 Track 3:0-2-1
J-ESPINOZA-V ( 301- 55- 48- 52-0.18) ( 708-102-0.14)
T-Chapman-James-K ( 34- 5- 6- 1-0.15) ( 62- 8-0.13)

Hol 06/19/2003 5.5 1 Tfm 3wd-into-lane-lost-2nd 101 97 92 88| 88
Hol 05/30/2003 5.5 5 Tfm b Came-out-str-2nd-best 103 94 91 90| 90
Hol 05/10/2003 5.5 1 Tfm 3wd-into-str-rallied 92 91 75 91| 98
SA 04/05/2003 9.0 6 Dfst Awkward-start-eased 118 104 92 65| 69d
SA 03/16/2003 8.5 2 Dgd Close-up--rail--tired 106 100 91 76| 77d
SA 02/23/2003 6.5 2 Tfm Shut-off-start-late-3d 114 103 91 93| 93
SA 02/09/2003 6.5 1 Tfm Swung-out-rallied-up 98 88 68 88| 99
Hol 12/22/2002 6.0 4 Dfst b Green-into-turn-wkened 114 92 81 68| 71d

6:JUDGE-JASON-Ky:15-1:NA

Distance 0:0-0-0 Track 1:0-0-0
J-JAUREGUI-L-H ( 44- 3- 3- 2-0.07) ( 98- 6-0.06)
T-Mullins-Jeff ( 41- 14- 5- 3-0.34) ( 138- 44-0.32)

BM 05/21/2003 8.5 3 Tfm b Bid-2w--led--caught 71 74 69 71| 72
Hol 05/03/2003 7.0 9 Dwf b Off-rail--gave-way 89 92 55 61| 63d
SA 03/29/2003 6.0 6 Dfst b Rail-bid-willingly 87 73 73 70| 72d
SA 01/23/2003 7.0 7 Dfst Off-bit-slow-no-bid 80 79 58 39| 43d
SA 01/05/2003 8.0 8 Dfst No-rally-outside 81 73 65 43| 47d
Hol 12/13/2002 8.5 6 Tfm 4wd-7/8-gave-way 90 82 64 54| 56
Hol 11/16/2002 6.5 4 Dfst Angled-in--no-rally 100 98 65 71| 75d

7:CONQUER-THE-GALAXY-Ky:5-2:PS

Distance 0:0-0-0 Track 1:1-0-0
J-VALENZUELA-P-A ( 291- 66- 44- 50-0.23) ( 760-158-0.21)
T-Machowsky-Michael ( 22- 5- 7- 3-0.23) ( 86- 14-0.16)

Hol 06/14/2003 8.5 3 Tfm b 4wd-bid-swerved-in-1/8 95 90 88 90| 90
SA 04/19/2003 6.5 3 Tfm b Pulled-stdied-early 85 84 62 82| 91

8:SHADOW-RAIDER-Cal:8-1:E

Distance 1:1-0-0 Track 1:1-0-0
J-BAZE-T-C ( 230- 31- 33- 32-0.13) ( 563- 70-0.12)
T-O'Neill-Doug ( 157- 28- 24- 16-0.18) ( 324- 59-0.18)

Hol 06/04/2003 8.0 5 Tfm b Bit-off-rail-lane-game 98 85 98 85| 90
Hol 05/18/2003 5.5 5 Dfst b Inside-clear-driving 74 69 74 69| 71d
Hol 04/26/2003 6.5 6 Dfst b Dueled-btwn-weakened 100 94 95 60| 74d
SA 03/09/2003 5.5 1 Dfst b Inside-trip-held-3rd 82 88 79 70| 75d
SA 02/13/2003 6.0 1 Dmy b Split-foes-rail-bid 79 62 66 62| 64d
SA 01/20/2003 6.5 10 Dfst b 5wd-to-turn-no-rally 96 96 80 47| 58d

10:SIX-NUMBERS-Va:6-1:S

Distance 2:0-1-0 Track 2:0-1-0
J-STEVENS-G-L ( 47- 12- 12- 4-0.26) ( 215- 40-0.19)
T-Garcia-Juan ( 42- 4- 6- 7-0.10) ( 112- 5-0.04)

Hol 06/11/2003 9.0 7 Tfm b Pulled-shuffled-1/2 97 90 86 85| 85
Hol 05/22/2003 8.0 6 Tfm b 5wd-into-str-led-late 116 91 105 91| 92
Hol 05/03/2003 7.0 8 Dwf b Off-rail-no-rally 89 92 74 83| 87d
SA 12/26/2002 6.0 3 Dfst b Swung-out-lane-no-bid 97 102 80 85| 88d
Hol 12/08/2002 7.0 3 Dfst b Tight-5/8-rallied 74 76 67 76| 81d
SA 10/31/2002 8.0 3 Tfm Chased--weakened 79 81 73 71| 71
SA 10/20/2002 6.5 6 Tfm Came-out-late-3rd 98 84 76 72| 73



Here is how I viewed the horses:

1-Certainly has a chance, but this guy did something I don't like...won racing close up on the dirt. He is bred for grass, but won't offer much value.

2-Certainly a contender on the numbers, but he won't offer much value with his connections.

3- Numbers aren't bad, but the connections are terrible. On dirt, I don't pay any attention to connections, on grass, whole different story. Trainer is 0-26 on the sod...next!

4-Definite contender on the last number, lightly raced, GREAT connections, all Shirreffs does is win.

5-Done nothing but sprint on the lawn...not a total throwout, but seems more like connections are just taking a shot than truly believing this guy wants to route.

6-Outclassed, no chance

7-Contender, 5-2 ML fave, no value...could win, but not with my money.

8-Contender on the numbers, but that post is not good, I do not bet many outside posts in mile turf races at Hollywood, or anywhere else for that matter.

9-Scratched

10-If this guy had drawn inside, I'd have given him a long look, but he's got no shot from way out there.

So, here is what you have...the highest last out number is lightly raced and likely to run even better...the connections are among the very best on the grounds...just a matter of the price. Admittedly, I bet early this morning, but I guessed the 4 would be good value knowing the circuit as I do. I did not expect $20.40.

Every race doesn't turn out this nicely, but if you stick to solid contenders and demand a price, I guarentee you will come out ahead in the long run.

21292692557586 Hollywood Park # 7 $40 Win 4 won $408.00

[Tom]

You should start selling PPs - yours look better than DRF or BRIS!
I like the scaled rating - my favorite part of HTR is the Figs2 screen (or old Pratt) which does this-really gives you a different look at the race and form cycles.

Q on your ratings...do you keep track of which of the two numbers perform better at different tracks/distances? Or how they perform? I can see patterns that might emerge like, top three early number, top two late are winning at X distance, top 3 early at Y distance.......

[DJofSD]

I think it is important to be able to separate the true sustained pace horse from the late or one move pretenders.

One quote from Marion that has always stayed with me over these many years goes like this: "What looks good to you might not be good for you."

I saw Marion the last time at Del Mar satellite about 5 years ago. From what I've heard he and his wife were pretty much staying close to home and only frequenting one of the indian casinos close by. And that is old news too.

DJofSD

[linrom1]

It appears that like many here, I also prefer Turf racing especially if it’s held a longer distance. However, I find that the breeding and late speed angles that many employ are less useful then most imply.

Most turf courses are notoriously speed favoring. The physical course layouts with sharp turns also favor front-runner types and most outside posts are impossible to overcome. The short lawn like yard grass surfaces also favor horses bred for speed and not Turf. While horses bred by Sadler Wells have won just about any Turf race of significance abroad, one can hardly find a Sadler Wells here in US! Consider horses bred by Danehill such as Rock of Gibraltar that have dominated most of International racing at distances of a mile and less; such races here are not won by horses bred for Turf, but, those that have already proven that they can run on dirt such as anything out of Mr. Prospector’s lineage. So while I don’t want to totally debunk the breeding angle, Turf racing in US is not what it is abroad.

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
Hold on there, Ranch
You are encouraging California bettors to bet in foreign pools?
Don't listen to him K.WOOD..........Hollywood Park, we have a couple of good turf races everyday. Let's keep our money in Calif.

You must not have any confidence in K.WOOD bringing the money back to California. You must know the same thing about WO that I do. lol

[Shacopate]

Class on the grass.

It's a cliche, but still holds true.

[cj]

linrom,

Speed favoring turf courses? No way I'm letting that go. Turf racing is far more slanted towards closers than dirt racing is. I'll buy the inside vs outside comparison, it is true, but then again not like the 9 post is dominating 1 1/16 mile dirt races either. But to say grass racing is speed favoring is just not accurate. Name a turf track and route distance(8 to 9f), I'll give you the average lengths behind the winners come from at the pace call...it will be further behind than the same distance on dirt. And this despite the fact that the pace on turf courses is almost always slower.

One example, at Hollywood Park, 9f races. On dirt, the average lengths behind for the winner after 3/4 mile is 1.60 lengths, while on turf, it is 2.09 lengths. Doesn't seem like much until you consider that the turf races pace times average about 8 lengths slower than dirt races with the same final time.

Not sure where you are getting your info, but I just don't buy it.

[Fastracehorse]

Of course horses win after being wide on the last turn but these horses are either superior animals or horses that received better trips.

Many more horses lose races by being wide on the last turn than win. The reality is: It is difficult to manufacture good trips in turf races.

You get a good front runner pressed by a cheapey and he'll probably lose.

You get a nice stalking trip behind the speed and then you get into a competition with another stalker for position.

And Tee, alot of horses win on the front end too. Like you said, know your course, Wdb has been playing to speed.

:) :) :) :) :) :) :)

fffastt

[MarylandPaul@HSH]

I'd agree with linrom in the sense that early speed offers the best value, even in turf routes. The closers may win at a greater rate, but in systems I've built in HSH, the best $nets were predominately early factors (pace, not necessarily running position).

MP

[canuck]

You said a mouthfull there fffast-
----------------------------------------------
And Tee, alot of horses win on the front end too. Like you said, know your course, Wdb has been playing to speed
-----------------------------------------------
Woodbine - July 2nd, 2003 - Race 4
Maiden Special Weight - For Thoroughbred Three and Four Year Old Fillies Six Furlongs (Temp Rail set at 10 feet)
ON THE TURF

Pgm HorseName (Jockey) Wgt M/E PP SP 1/4 1/2 Str Fin
9 Cricket Wicket (Luciani, D.) 118 L b 8 6 1-1 1-1 1-2 1-2 1/4

Pgm Horse Win Place Show Total WPS Pool: $111,704
9 Cricket Wicket 39.80 15.40 8.50
10 Mona Rose 23.20 10.70
1 Hot Pants 7.40

[so.cal.fan]

Linron and Maryland Paul:
Please play the turf race pools at Del Mar, Santa Anita and Hollywood Park! Or.....I'm sure NYRA players would welcome your money at Saratoga.
While speed is holding a little better than normal at Hollywood towards the end of the meet...........it is not the norm.
Turf races are run here in So. Cal. the same way they are run most everywhere else in the world.......the horses and their jockeys pace themselves early and then sprint for the wire down the stretch. Even our notorious downhill course at Santa Anita when horses are sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs down the hill, is most often won by a strong finisher.......and horses from Europe have a very good record on this course....especially horses from Epsom,
England, which is a very simular course to S.A.
Additionally, if you are going to bet against a French or English import, especially by Sadler Wells or a Sadler Wells mare.......do so at your own peril.

[delayjf]

Just checked some statistics from bris as to the winning % of Wire to wire winners a various turf tracks.

Belmont and Hollywood don't favor front speed (8% and 14% respectively)

Woodbine(14%), Delaware park(13%)

But Churchill(25%) and Arl (21%) do favor front runners.

If Linsom was refering to distances greater than 11/4, I'd agree with him. Front speed does hold up well here.

[David McKenzie]

Originally posted by gino

i play just enough races each year so that i can list my occupation on Form 1040 as "turf analyst".

Gino,

I thought you were on a sailing safari.

Are you betting from the yacht?

[David McKenzie]

Originally posted by delayjf
Could you tell us more of what your studies on SP indicated. IE did the win % go down or the ROI.

delayjf,

A formal study was not conducted by moi; I simply noticed SP wasn't generating a profit after several 20 race cycles -- both the Win% and ROI dropped significantly --and stopped betting it. It used to work, then it stopped working. Anything I toss out now is only going to be conjecture.

I've created some successful turf systems which incorporate SP, but it's not a stand alone factor anymore, at least not for me.

Digression Alert:
Incidentally, contrary to conventional wisdom, my databases suggest Early Speed produces the highest $Net in turf races as a stand alone factor, although it's not profitable by itself. True, the win percentage is nothing to write home about and you'd be foolhardy to emphasize ES if you're playing multiple race wagers like Daily Doubles, Pick 3s, etc., but to ignore the single most important money making factor is probably not a wise idea if you're playing win bets.

[David McKenzie]

Lookie Lookie:

Belmont today:
Race: 5 Win Place Show
1st 9 SUAVE ACT 48.40 20.60 10.00

7 Camp Crescent
9 Suave Act
2 Sweet Baby Jake all ranked "1" in SP

9 Suave Act
2 Sweet Baby Jake
8 Brush With Gold all ranked "1" in Cls

2 Sweet Baby Jake
8 Brush With Gold
9 Suave Act all ranked "1" in Lvl

9 Suave Act the ONLY horse ranked "1" in LP

Incidentally, Suave Act was rated last in ES. The above ratings were generated from HSH directly from the Composite Screen. Everyone using HSH would see exactly the same thing.

So, why did this horse pay so much having these top rankings in all the "classic" turf factors?

I bet the #2 and #9 to win and am happy with the outcome, but I sure as heck don't understand the mutuel prize. :eek:

[VetScratch]

Since the turf specialists are here, does anyone know if Mandella and Bacharach ever seriously considered, or came close to, trying Afternoon Deelites on the grass?

[MarylandPaul@HSH]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
Linron and Maryland Paul:
Please play the turf race pools at Del Mar, Santa Anita and Hollywood Park!

For every non-maiden turf race run in So. Cal since Jan 2000 (848 races), 8-9 furlongs, firm tracks, horses ranked 1st or 2nd for each factor:

First, sorted by IV:

Starters Wins Win% $net IV PIV
Final Time, B2 L4 1919 356 18.6 $1.75 1.49 1.05
Composite FX 2035 378 18.6 $1.70 1.48 1.04
Final Time, B3 L4 1911 348 18.2 $1.69 1.46 1.04
Final Time Avg L4 1902 339 17.8 $1.72 1.43 1.04
Composite SP 2086 374 17.9 $1.58 1.43 1.01


Now, sorted by $net:

Starters Wins Win% $net IV PIV
F1, Avg L4 1840 321 17.4 $1.96 1.39 1.12
F1, 2nd best ever 1842 296 16.1 $1.92 1.28 1.07
F1, B3 L4 1855 315 17.0 $1.86 1.36 1.09
EP, 2nd best ever 1871 305 16.3 $1.84 1.30 1.04
F1, B2 L4 1854 307 16.6 $1.82 1.32 1.06


Numbers courtesy of HSH, all rights reserved <g>.

I didn't include it here, but I also looked at the "Stretch Run" factor, which is the final two fractions (note that HSH uses 4 fractions). The $net was exactly the same as SP...$1.58

MP

[B. Comin']

[QUOTE][i]Originally posted by David McKenzie@HSH

Digression Alert:
Incidentally, contrary to conventional wisdom, my databases suggest Early Speed produces the highest $Net in turf races as a stand alone factor, although it's not profitable by itself.


I assume that your early speed comment above related to turf races is related to route turf races. In fact, early speed as a 'stand alone factor' is almost approx. double in route races as compared to spint races, in a general and negligible sense, whether it be turf or dirt races. This was ferreted out 15+ years ago.

So why would you run a database on accepted handicapping knowledge?

You're correct about it not being profitable, but I get the impression that you database guys sometimes think your re-inventing the wheel, when your database really suggests that you are covering old ground.

[plainolebill]

Got anything interesting to add to the thread? If not, why don't you B. Goin'?

[racing411.com]

good morning everyone,

There's something about Turf Racing that gets my juices flowing, almost like the smell of the autumn leaves during football season. alright, enough.

If you want more tips and learn some myths regarding Turf Racing, there's an excellent Turf Racing Betting Guide you can copy from my site. It's in the news section if you'd like to download it.

www.racing411.com

[John]

racing 411

Thanks for the info on the turf. A lot of those "MYTHS" that J.Stone talked about were very interesting....nice web page for player's with call-in bets.

[racing411.com]

my pleasure rocajack.

there are some interesting theories in that piece.

happy fourth of july to ALL PACE POSTERS !!!

[Trijack]

Does one need to apply different rules to claiming and Allowance races on turf? Here are some figures you might be interested in for Hollywood Park races according to Always Bris figures as to whether early speed, late speed, class & speed is best.

Turf Claiming 28 races
ep Win 19%
lp Win 29%
class Win 29%
speed Win 32%

Turf Allowance 21 races
ep Win 43%
lp Win 38%
class Win 19%
Speed Win 29%

I might add that I do OK in hdcp Turf races

[azibuck]

This might be a big "duh", but you don't do both calculations for every horse, do you? If a horse has a higher speed number, the calculations will always end up with the higher number from the second calculation, and if the pace number is higher, then you only need to do the first calculation. Right?

Or do you use the other number for any reason?

[Topcat]

Until recently, I've only been able to come close to breaking even on turf races. Even to do that I had to keep pretty extensive trainer records.

Recently I've done much better and it is because I've been using HSH, Horse Street Handicapper software. I'm using the sysytems part of the program and taking a somewhat contrarian approach.

I just tested 500+ turf races and turned a ROI of 1.10-500 races isn't enough to be sure of profits but it is a start.

[racing411.com]

hey **********,

I miss philly. did you go to the shore for the holiday weekend ?

[racing411.com]

cyber,

heaven to me would be a brown bag of stale soft preztels, a cold beer and nose bleed seats at a phillies game.

[cj]

Originally posted by Netcapperazibuck
This might be a big "duh", but you don't do both calculations for every horse, do you? If a horse has a higher speed number, the calculations will always end up with the higher number from the second calculation, and if the pace number is higher, then you only need to do the first calculation. Right?

Or do you use the other number for any reason?

I don't do this by hand, I let my PC do it for me. Be happy to post a race if anyone is interested, though it doesn't show both numbers, only the highest. I used to look at both, but was missing horses with numbers like 80-103 against a 101-104. I have found the spread between the two numbers is irrelevant.

[santanajimi]

The best system is one you create by using track bias on turf.
Watch the turf races and see how they play. I would guess a turf breeding book would help you if your not up on good turf sires.

[Fastracehorse]

Oh yes biases, powerful stuff.

fffastt fffastt fffastt fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

<Actually, the general tradeoff for going wide around the turn is having a guaranteed clear run through the lane, so those "wide" horses often gain back by lack of traffic what they lose by being wide. A turf course like Belmont's isn't that bad for going wide given that the turns are not so sharp.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++

And assuming noone else has a guranteed wide run through the lane?? A horse can win by coming into the lane wide if the pace collapses or if the animal is superior - more times than not it is not a winning move. Have you heard the term 'hung'??

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

<The ideal turf trip is to grab a good position on the first turn, lay off the pace on the backstretch, slide into contention approaching the turn, save ground on the turn, angling out just after the midway point to take advantage of the geometry, and then exploding down the lane.

Yes, and you just explained why: Wide trips are detrimental.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

<When it comes to trips, tactical speed is the key, and the better horses generally will move strategically rather than fighting to cling to their position. I call this "moving like a chess piece." When the jock is dropping the horse in an ideal pace scenario, it's because the horse was fast enough to claim that spot. In the days before they paid much attention to trips, this was a more random occurrence, but now it's not. Consequently, a "good trip" is usually the result of a good horse, and shouldn't be downgraded so much.

You live in an idealistic world - not a realistic one. Remember I said that the next time your G-1 horse trips terribley on the lawn. I don't wish it upon anybody but bad trips are a big part of racing.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

fffastt

[MarylandPaul@HSH]

Originally posted by **********DotCom
This is a myth, because you have to factor in one's ability to PREDICT the early speed.

Only if you're trying to beat a particular race. Personally, I'd be happy betting F1-AvgL4 from the numbers I posted, knowing that I'll hit 15-20%, without knowing *which* races I'll hit.

MP

[Fastracehorse]

<knowing that I'll hit 15-20%, without knowing *which* races I'll hit.

++++++++++++++++++++

No insult intended it's just that I do know which races I have a good probability of winning.

It's just interesting how we think differently.

fffastt

:p :p :p :p :p :p :p

[Tom]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse@DRF
[B.


...... Have you heard the term 'hung'??

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

fffastt [/B]


Hear that all the time! :rolleyes:

[Fastracehorse]

<...... Have you heard the term 'hung'??

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

fffastt [/B]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Hear that all the time!

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Explain what relevance that has to being out of bannanas??

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

fffastt

[kingfin66]

Basing turf picks on only the last fraction without regard to the pace of the race is not a good idea. I did much experimenting with it, and it just doesn't work. After much tinkering, I've come up with a few ideas that really seem to work. I've went from ignoring turf races to looking forward to them.

I'll sum up what I do real quick and anyone has questions, fire away. First off, for dirt, I use the Quirin method, combining the pace figure with the speed figure. I still do that for turf, but it is only the first rating. The second rating is more inclined to late speed. Here is an example...

Say a horse ran a 70-80 pace speed combo. His pace rating would be (70+80) / 2 = 75. I calculate the late portion of the rating as follows:

(80*3) - (70*2) = 100

I then average that 100 with the pace rating, 70 in this case, for the late speed rating. (100 + 70) / 2 = 85.

So in this case, the horse would rate 75-85 for the race. I only look at the higher of the two, so this horse would be an 85.

One other example...

Horse runs 90-80, so his 1st rating is 85. The second rating would be:

(80*3) - ( 90*2) = 60

(60+90) / 2 = 75.

His rating is now 85-75, so I would take the 85 as well. I have found the best turf horses show the best turn of foot over shorter distances, and this seems to point them out. You won't find many standouts using this type of method, but you will find legitimate contenders at some very nice prices.

I stumbled across this thread while searching for something entirely different. Since I have been working on a turf racing spreadsheet that I hope to eventually convert into a program (or at least have it be part of a program), I jumped into this thread.

CJ's calculations looked interesting enough, so I decided to throw together a quicky Excel spreadsheet to do the calcs. Now, I hope I did them right. CJ didn't specify what pace and speed figures to use - we all know that he makes his own stellar figures - but BRIS/TSN seems to be popular. I used the E2 figure for "Pace" and the SPD figure for "Speed."

I only have a few TSN/BRIS files, but I found this race at Tampa and decided to run the numbers. The results are rather interesting if I do say so myself, and I do say SO!

Please note that there were obviously some calls to make regarding which paceline to use and I didn't calc ratings for all the pacelines. The winner had only one turf line to use, so that was pretty easy choice. At any rate, if my attachment works, here are the calcs.

Horse #4 was the favorite and rated off its top race, a very typical one for the horse. Odds were 1.9/1. The #9 was rated off of its only turf race. Odds were 25.7/1.

Race: 5 Win Place Show
1st 9 STILL SMOLDERING 53.40 17.20 8.60
2nd 6 ESKIMO PASSION 17.00 7.00
3rd 4 NATIONAL ANTHEM (GB) 3.00
4th 8 CASTLE CONCERT
$2 Exacta 9-6 774.40
$2 Quinella 6-9 359.40
$2 Trifecta 9-6-4 4845.00
$2 Superfecta 9-6-4-A 6824.80
Refunds: 3,11,12,13,14

So, has anybody trie CJ's turf number crunching on a regular basis? I have to say that my curiousity is piqued!

NOTE: The little spreadsheet that I attached has a column called 2C.BL. This may be disregarded as it was used for a different calc and I failed to delete it before I attached the sheet. The beaten lengths were not part of CJ's calc and, thus, were not included in the formulae.

[RaceIsClosed]

Here they come. 4 races on the Turf at Belmont for wednesday . Now that the country is rain free almost all tracks are running 4 or 5 Turf races a card.

Sad, these races are sandwich between most pick - 3 and always in the late DD.

I need some help in the turf area or I go fishing for the summer.

Steve Wolson " Speed Scan " said, look at the horses last three turf races regardlees of when or where and bet the horse that has the highest Turf Beyer, Briss,Tsn Or whatever number of the three.

It works [ Somtime ]

Do you really think those who make a lot of money on grass races are going to spill their secrets on a public message board?

I will say that AGE is probably the most important factor and the one you should start with when analyzing a grass race.

[Stevie Belmont]

Here they come. 4 races on the Turf at Belmont for wednesday . Now that the country is rain free almost all tracks are running 4 or 5 Turf races a card.

Sad, these races are sandwich between most pick - 3 and always in the late DD.

I need some help in the turf area or I go fishing for the summer.

Steve Wolson " Speed Scan " said, look at the horses last three turf races regardlees of when or where and bet the horse that has the highest Turf Beyer, Briss,Tsn Or whatever number of the three.

It works [ Somtime ]

The most imoprtants factors for grass horses is quite simple. Class, money earned on the grass, and connections. I dont give the speed fugure much of a look, if any on grass. Of course pace and trip is important. But class surpasses all easily. Pay attention to pedigree, but dont let that hang up up, if the horse has the other ingridients already.

You can use any method you prefer. But Class is critical, especialy on the grass.

[kingfin66]

Do you really think those who make a lot of money on grass races are going to spill their secrets on a public message board?

I will say that AGE is probably the most important factor and the one you should start with when analyzing a grass race.

Keep in mind that John's question and the start of this thread was posted over 2 years ago.

Your answer to the question is actually quite interesting as most people hold that breeding and class are the keys to turf racing.

[cj]

I pay ZERO attention to class on turf and my ROI is positive, and even a tad better than my dirt ROI. That isn't to say it couldn't be better if I did pay attention to class, though I think I would lose most of the prices I hit now if I did.

[kingfin66]

CJ,

Are you still using those calcs? Also, do you always use the 1/2 mile call for pace, or do you always use the E2 call for pace? Or, am I way off base with the pace? Hey, I rhymed!

[cj]

Yes, I pretty much use those calculations, with a few modifications in extreme paced, either fast or slow, races. Also, the race shape now is a factor.

For example, if a race has a pace of 110, and a speed of 90, a horse with a 80 pace 90 speed in that same race isn't going to get credit for closing into a very hot pace.

But basically, yes, it is a big part of what I'm doing on turf.

[kingfin66]

Using the calcs for the other two turf races at Tampa that day resulted in a longshot (apprx 7/1) finishing second and a standout chalk winner. I'm going to start trying that calc out on some races before they run. I'm glad I stumbled on this thread.