Beating the Favorite

[dutzman]

I was wondering if anyone wanted to share their favorite angles for beating the favorite. I am an exacta/trifecta player mainly, with some DD's P3's and WIN bets thrown in. I occasionally play the Pick 4 that has a sizable pool when I think I can exploit a race or two. The key to my exactas and P3's especially is beating the favorite....for obvious reasons. I was wondering if any players out there who love to beat the favorite wanted to discuss any angles/situations they like to use/see that helps you accomplish this. One I use a lot would be a favorite coming off a taxing effort in his last and has to overcome a unfavorable pace scenario. I would love to get some insights from everyone!

[lamboguy]

boomer's picks claims that they can beat the favorite for the win at an 85% rate, they also claim they can beat the same favorite 53% of the time for the place. i have followed them for 2 weeks and their claim seems to be reasonable. the only negetive i can say is that sometimes the horse that they claim as being the morning line favorite winds up going off as second choice after all the all the money is bet.

[Greyfox]

boomer's picks claims that they can beat the favorite for the win at an 85% rate, they also claim they can beat the same favorite 53% of the time for the place. .

At those rates surely he isn't providing picks for every race on a card, is he??

[lamboguy]

At those rates surely he isn't providing picks for every race on a card, is he??not every race. they are pretty good, but like everything else i am always leary when someone claims they can beat horserace betting. today they hit a $285 exacta and lost short money for the day in their favorite buster plays. its the 2nd losing day that i have seen since i have been following them. they don't put up plays on monday's and tuesdays. most of their plays have been on low rebate tracks as well. they had an exacta that hit today at gulfstram and the exacta only paid $18 for a $42 loss on the play. but that is the worst one that i have hit and lost with hitting in the 2 weeks. they had a few big shots where they got aced out at the wire as well.

[Force of One]

Personally I try to look for favorites that may be going off form in some way, such as an overly taxing effort (like you suggest).

Also you could consider a last out race that might not have been as good as it looked (ran with a bias or a favorable pace setup for example). Often times those horse are vulnerable, especially if there are other contenders that stack up somewhat competitively or finished behind him in that race

Another thing I refer to in my trainer/jockey stats, to see if this is a move that he/they have a less then average success rate with. For instance, a horse making a surface/distance switch horse may have a class advantage for a 20% trainer, but looking more closely he underperforms with this move.

[Charlie D]

Anyone know how much crow boomer ate when Street Sense won Derby Day :)

[CincyHorseplayer]

I think if the favorite won last out is the most vulnerable.Unless they just romped by open lengths.It's not true with a lot of trainers who strike when the iron is hot,but I see a tendency to not push a horse when they just won,next out within 35 days.I think keeping the horse sound and contentious so they'll last and cash more checks regularly is the goal.They aren't pushed too hard off wins.

[stu]

I think if the favorite won last out is the most vulnerable.Unless they just romped by open lengths.It's not true with a lot of trainers who strike when the iron is hot,but I see a tendency to not push a horse when they just won,next out within 35 days.I think keeping the horse sound and contentious so they'll last and cash more checks regularly is the goal.They aren't pushed too hard off wins.


My database showed that in roughly 10,000 races in 2009 where the morning line favorite won last out, they won 34% of the time. Correspondingly, the database showed that in about the same number of races in 2009 where the post time favorite won last out, they won 37% of the time. BTW, both situations produced flat bet losses despite the high win percentages.

[boomman]

Personally I try to look for favorites that may be going off form in some way, such as an overly taxing effort (like you suggest).

Also you could consider a last out race that might not have been as good as it looked (ran with a bias or a favorable pace setup for example). Often times those horse are vulnerable, especially if there are other contenders that stack up somewhat competitively or finished behind him in that race

Another thing I refer to in my trainer/jockey stats, to see if this is a move that he/they have a less then average success rate with. For instance, a horse making a surface/distance switch horse may have a class advantage for a 20% trainer, but looking more closely he underperforms with this move.

IMHO to become a consistent winning player, beating short price horses is obviously one of the strongest plays you can and MUST make. And no, I never say I can beat the favorite in every race, as that would be a ridiculous claim given that favorites win at an approximate rate of 32% overall in North American horse racing. What I do say (and demonstrate on a consistent basis via my "favorite busters sheet" that Lambo has referred to in this thread) is that there are many "weak favorites" appearing on a daily basis and the handicappers that identify those on a consistent basis are the ones that are collecting overlays and thus setting themselves up to make a long term profit, especially if they are also receiving rebates on their play and making these wagers at a reduced takeout. One of many factors in determining a "weak" favorite is in fact (but certainly not limited to) what you have referred to above in jockey/trainer stats. It is amazing to me how often low percentage jockey/trainer combinations (often with a combined win percentage of less than 10%) are actually the connections on a horse that is favored in the race. This is one of the very first things I look for and these favorites do in fact get beat a very high percentage of the time. A good "starting point" for sure:ThmbUp:

Boomer

[mountainman]

Boomer is a good handicapper Phil. No tricks, no miracle ratings, just solid fundamentals. My philosophy on favorites is to never bet one who brings even one potential weakness as part of the package. Cold barn? Been away from the races? Poor post position? Negotiable risks at longer odds, but unacceptable for a favorite. More glaring issues, of course,-ie negative drop, unfavorable pace scenario, 'sucker horse' win to place ratio..etc- will deter me even at non-favored odds. As do many players, I find it useful to classify chalks as strong, vulnerable, or weak. I do think some handicappers, in their fervor to find value, underate a crucial element of profiting from races containing weak favorites- and that is picking who else to key on. All the dumb money in the world won't insure your success unless you can cash. If I had a dime for every race in which I knew the favorite wouldn't win, but missed by a mile on who WOULD win...... For some (weird) reason, my best scores come from beating legitimate chalks with longer priced horses that I simply prefer.

[Charlie D]

My philosophy on favorites is to never bet one who brings even one potential weakness as part of the package. .


Can't fault that kind of philosophy mountainman.


Boomer, enjoyed listening to your podcast (crow thing a bit of fun ;) ) and a Good Skil award in order looking at your website.

[CincyHorseplayer]

My database showed that in roughly 10,000 races in 2009 where the morning line favorite won last out, they won 34% of the time. Correspondingly, the database showed that in about the same number of races in 2009 where the post time favorite won last out, they won 37% of the time. BTW, both situations produced flat bet losses despite the high win percentages.


Thanks for the info Stu.

But for me,as I mentioned,it would have to be based on certain criteria.I would have to separate a)trainers who repeat at a high rate,b)horses that won by 2 or more lengths,and c)that they raced in 28 days or less.

On my circuit(Ohio) I usually knows who can repeat and expect it.And my research,while not in a massive database has horses who won by open lengths last out as most likely to repeat,and horses who return in 30-35 days as most likely to repeat.

That might be broad but those are the only 3 reasons I am likely to make a wager on a favorite that won last out.The others I feel are safe bet against's.

If you could divide that up I would love to see the results,seriously.

And these are observations from the Ohio circuit.I know things are different elsewhere.Miss Cashalot and I have compared night and day notes in the past about layoff criteria between Ohio and New York.

[stu]

I can get close with your scenario but not all of the way.

Similar results restricted to Ohio tracks for runners with 4 weeks or shorter lay offs.

Cincy, Check your private messages throughout the night.

[boomman]

Can't fault that kind of philosophy mountainman.


Boomer, enjoyed listening to your podcast (crow thing a bit of fun ;) ) and a Good Skil award in order looking at your website.

Thanks Charlie, and I ate "crow" via my wallet leaving Street Sense off the Derby ticket in 2007, and of course never anticipated that he would get as perfect a trip in the Ky Derby as he did at Tampa, but lightning struck twice!@!;)

Boomer

[dav4463]

The stronger the favorite, the better the payoff when you do beat him. If I see a favorite and I absolutely cannot find a reason for this horse to lose; then I may pass, but I can usually find some potential reason to lose.